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  • Week Actual Demand Forecasting Deviation Rsfe

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    zanmatto22
    19 views10 pages
    The document contains data on actual demand and forecasted demand over 13 weeks. It compares the actual demand to forecasts using different methods: simple average, 3-week moving average, 5-week moving average, simple exponential smoothing with α=0.2, and simple exponential smoothing with α=0.4. The simple average had the highest mean absolute deviation (MAD) of 37, while the exponential smoothing with α=0.4 had the lowest MAD of 33.03. Overall, the exponential smoothing methods improved the forecasts over the simple averages.

    Original Description:

    Latihan BIsnis Ekonomi

    Original Title

    Aggregate Demand

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    The document contains data on actual demand and forecasted demand over 13 weeks. It compares the actual demand to forecasts using different methods: simple average, 3-week moving average, 5-week moving average, simple exponential smoothing with α=0.2, and simple exponential smoothing with α=0.4. The simple average had the highest mean absolute deviation (MAD) of 37, while the exponential smoothing with α=0.4 had the lowest MAD of 33.03. Overall, the exponential smoothing methods improved the forecasts over the simple averages.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    19 views10 pages

    Week Actual Demand Forecasting Deviation Rsfe

    Uploaded by

    zanmatto22
    The document contains data on actual demand and forecasted demand over 13 weeks. It compares the actual demand to forecasts using different methods: simple average, 3-week moving average, 5-week moving average, simple exponential smoothing with α=0.2, and simple exponential smoothing with α=0.4. The simple average had the highest mean absolute deviation (MAD) of 37, while the exponential smoothing with α=0.4 had the lowest MAD of 33.03. Overall, the exponential smoothing methods improved the forecasts over the simple averages.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    of 10

    WEEK

    ACTUAL DEMAND
    1
    2
    3
    4
    5
    6
    7
    8
    9
    10
    11
    12
    13

    Jumlah
    Rata2

    FORECASTING

    162
    199
    189
    213
    246
    288
    245
    204
    236
    257
    174
    248
    229
    2890
    222

    DEVIATION

    183
    200
    216
    249
    260
    246
    228
    232
    222
    226

    RSFE

    30
    46
    72
    -4
    -56
    -10
    29
    -58
    26
    3

    30
    76
    148
    144
    88
    78
    107
    49
    74
    77

    350
    300
    250
    200
    150
    100
    50
    0
    1

    10

    11

    12

    13

    ABS. DEV

    SUM OF ABS. DEV.

    30
    46
    72
    4
    56
    10
    29
    58
    26
    3

    30
    75
    147
    151
    207
    217
    245
    304
    329
    332

    MAD

    TS = RSFE / MAD

    30
    38
    49
    38
    41
    36
    35
    38
    37
    33
    37

    Series1
    Series2

    13

    1.01
    2.01
    3.01
    3.80
    2.13
    2.17
    3.05
    1.28
    2.03
    2.32

    MAPE

    13.34
    16.94
    22.09
    17.02
    18.62
    16.24
    15.77
    17.07
    16.46
    14.93
    16.85

    WEEK

    ACTUAL DEMAND
    1
    2
    3
    4
    5
    6
    7
    8
    9
    10
    11
    12
    13

    Jumlah
    Rata2

    FORECASTING

    162
    199
    189
    213
    246
    288
    245
    204
    236
    257
    174
    248
    229
    2890
    222

    DEVIATION

    RSFE

    86
    18
    -32
    -3
    13
    -72
    25
    5

    202
    227
    236
    239
    244
    246
    223
    224

    86
    104
    72
    69
    82
    10
    35
    40

    350
    300
    250
    200
    150
    100
    50
    0
    1

    10

    11

    12

    13

    ABS. DEV

    SUM OF ABS. DEV.

    86
    18
    32
    3
    13
    72
    25
    5

    86
    104
    136
    140
    153
    225
    250
    255

    MAD

    TS = RSFE / MAD

    86
    52
    45
    35
    31
    37
    36
    32
    44

    Series1
    Series2

    13

    1
    2
    1.58
    1.97
    2.68
    0.27
    0.98
    1.26

    MAPE

    38.78
    23.44
    20.45
    15.70
    13.75
    16.85
    16.04
    14.33
    19.92

    WEEK

    ACTUAL DEMAND
    1
    2
    3
    4
    5
    6
    7
    8
    9
    10
    11
    12
    13

    162
    199
    189
    213
    246
    288
    245
    204
    236
    257
    174
    248
    229

    FORECASTING
    3 WEEKS
    5 WEEKS

    350
    300

    183
    200
    216
    249
    260
    246
    228
    232
    222
    226

    250

    192
    200
    212
    222
    234
    240
    243
    238

    200
    150
    100
    50
    0
    1

    ACTUAL
    3 WEEKS
    5 WEEKS

    10

    11

    12

    13

    WEEK

    ACTUAL DEMAND

    1
    2
    3
    4
    5
    6
    7
    8
    9
    10
    11
    12
    13
    JUMLAH
    RATA2

    FORECASTING

    162
    199
    189
    213
    246
    288
    245
    204
    236
    257
    174
    248
    229
    2890
    222

    DEVIATION
    37
    20
    40
    65
    94
    32
    -15
    20
    37
    -54
    31
    6

    162
    169
    173
    181
    194
    213
    219
    216
    220
    228
    217
    223

    ALPHA

    RSFE
    37
    57
    96
    161
    255
    287
    271
    291
    328
    274
    305
    311

    0.2

    Ft = Ft-1 +
    9.00
    8.00
    7.00
    6.00
    5.00
    4.00
    3.00
    2.00
    1.00
    0.00
    1

    10

    11

    12

    ABS. DEV

    SUM OF ABS. DEV.


    37
    20
    40
    65
    94
    32
    15
    20
    37
    54
    31
    6

    37
    57
    96
    161
    255
    287
    302
    322
    359
    412
    443
    449

    MAD

    TS = RSFE / MAD
    37
    28
    32
    40
    51
    48
    43
    40
    40
    41
    40
    37
    39.89

    Ft = Ft-1 + (Dt-1 - Ft-1)

    Series1

    12

    1.00
    2.00
    3.00
    4.00
    5.00
    6.00
    6.29
    7.24
    8.23
    6.65
    7.58
    8.32

    MAPE
    16.64
    12.73
    14.44
    18.11
    22.92
    21.51
    19.42
    18.10
    17.93
    18.55
    18.13
    16.84
    17.94

    WEEK

    ACTUAL DEMAND

    1
    2
    3
    4
    5
    6
    7
    8
    9
    10
    11
    12
    13
    JUMLAH
    RATA2

    FORECASTING

    162
    199
    189
    213
    246
    288
    245
    204
    236
    257
    174
    248
    229
    2890
    222

    DEVIATION
    37
    12
    31
    52
    73
    1
    -40
    8
    26
    -68
    33
    1

    162
    177
    182
    194
    215
    244
    244
    228
    231
    242
    215
    228

    ALPHA

    RSFE
    37
    49
    81
    132
    205
    206
    166
    173
    199
    131
    165
    166

    0.4

    Ft = Ft-1 + (Dt-1 - Ft-1)


    7.00
    6.00
    5.00
    4.00
    Series1

    3.00
    2.00
    1.00
    0.00
    1

    10

    11

    12

    - Ft-1)

    ABS. DEV

    SUM OF ABS. DEV.


    37
    12
    31
    52
    73
    1
    40
    8
    26
    68
    33
    1

    MAD

    37
    49
    81
    132
    205
    206
    247
    254
    280
    348
    381
    382

    TS = RSFE / MAD
    37
    25
    27
    33
    41
    34
    35
    32
    31
    35
    35
    32

    33.03

    MAPE

    1.00
    2.00
    3.00
    4.00
    5.00
    6.00
    4.70
    5.45
    6.40
    3.78
    4.76
    5.21

    16.64
    11.07
    12.07
    14.88
    18.48
    15.46
    15.85
    14.31
    14.00
    15.64
    15.58
    14.33
    14.86

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