CHNG II: CC PHNG PHP DNG

TRONG TM
- Thong ke va x ly so lieu
-Phng phap liet ke so lieu
-Phng phap danh muc
-Phng phap ma tran (Matrix)
-Phng phap mang li (Network) -Phng phap mang li (Network)
-anh gia nhanh (Rapid Assessment)
-Phng phap chuyen gia (Delphi)
-Mo hnh hoa (Environmental Modelling)
-Phng phap phan tch li ch chi ph (Cost Benefit Analysis)
-Phng phap chong ghep ban o (Overmapping) (GIS)
2.1.Thong ke va x ly so lieu
Phng php thng k (statistics) c s dng t lu trong
nhiu ngnh kinh t, y khoa, nng nghip, sinh hc,mi trng

Cc phng php thng k ton hc l : Cc phng php thng k ton hc l :

Thng k m t (descriptive statistics)
Thng k suy din (Inferential statistics)
c lng v trc nghim (Estimation and testing)
Phn tch tng quan (hi quy) (Regression analysis)
Phn tch chui thi gian (Time series analysis)
2.1.Thong ke va x ly so lieu (tt)
5 nhim v x l d liu mi trng :
1). Phn tch d liu iu tra cc yu t mi trng
(t, nc, khng kh ) phc v cho vic nh gi
tc ng mi trng, phn tch hin trng mi trng.
2). So snh kt qu thu thp c vi cc tiu chun,
quy chun quy nh, so snh kt qu ca 2 hay nhiu
trm quan trc, cc cng ngh x l, cc ch tiu mi trm quan trc, cc cng ngh x l, cc ch tiu mi
trng ca 2 nh my, 2 KCN
3). Phn tch kt qu ca cc th nghim mi trng,
t tm ra cc bin php x l ti u.
4). Nghin cu mi lin h gia 2 yu t mi trng
hoc mi quan h nhn qu gia cc yu t mi
trng (V d : liu lng/phn ng).
5). Theo di din bin mi trng theo thi gian
(quan trc mi trng)
2.1.Thong ke va x ly so lieu (tt)
Cc phn mm x l thng k :
SPSS (S dng AIT)
Minitab (S dng Chu u) Minitab (S dng Chu u)
Statgraphics 7.0 (S dng rng ri)
2.1.Thong ke va x ly so lieu (tt)
ng dng thng k m t trong lnh vc ti nguyn v mi
trng :
Trnh by kt qu o c mi trng t, nc v khng kh
sau khi phn tch.
Trnh by thng tin c bn v cc thnh phn mi trng nh
t ai, thnh phn ho cht, c cu dn s (Thng tin trng
thi).
Trnh by khi qut cc thng k v hot ng sn xut, i
sng ca con ngi, t nh gi c cc ngun p lc ln
mi trng nh thng k giao thng, tnh hnh sn xut, dn
s, sn phm, nng lng (Thng tin p lc).
2.1.Thong ke va x ly so lieu (tt)
Trnh by cc kt qu hot ng qun l mi trng,
ti nguyn nh thu, ph mi trng ( Thng tin
p ng). p ng).
Trnh by cc kt qu phn tch liu lng-phn ng
trong nh gi ri ro mi trng
Trnh by kt qu trong cc phn tch th nghip
nhiu ln, ly kt qu chung cng b.
CC C TRNG THNG K
1. Cc thng s o chiu hng tp trung ca dy s
Trung bnh (mean): i lng o trung bnh ca dy s
liu.
Trung bnh hnh hc (Geometric mean) Gi tr trung bnh
ca log cc gi tr nm trong dy s. ca log cc gi tr nm trong dy s.
Trung bnh s hc (Arithmetic mean) Gi tr trung bnh
ca cc gi tr nm trong dy s (Tng s cc gi tr chia cho
c mu).
CC C TRNG THNG K (tt)
Trung v (median) hay Gi tr gia (50%
percentile): Xp th t cc s liu t thp n cao,
sau tm gi tr chia dy d kin thnh 2 phn c s
mu bng nhau.
- Nu c mu (n) l l : Trung v l gi tr nm th
[(n+1)/2] trong dy s
- Nu c mu (n) l chn : Trung v l gi tr trung
bnh ca 2 gi tr nm v tr [n/2] v v tr th [(n/2)
+ 1].
CC C TRNG THNG K (tt)
Phn t v di (Lower quartile) hay gi tr 25%
(25% percentile) : Gi tr nm v tr u ca qung
phn t th 2 khi chia dy s thnh 4 phn c kch c
bng nhau.
Phn t v trn (Upper quartile) hay gi tr 75%
(75% percentile) : Gi tr nm v tr cui ca
qung phn t th 3 khi chia dy s thnh 4 phn c
kch c bng nhau.
CC C TRNG THNG K (tt)
2. Cc thng s o c trng ca phn tn
Bin lng (Variance) : Trung bnh ca bnh
phng tt c cc lch ca gi tr quan st tr i
gi tr trung bnh. gi tr trung bnh.
lch tiu chun (Standard Deviation) : L cn
s dng ca bin lng
Sai s tiu chun (Standard Error): l t s gia
lch tiu chun v cn bc 2 ca c mu (n)
CC C TRNG THNG K (tt)
Phm vi phn b ca s liu (Range) : Hiu s ca
s ln nht v s nh nht.
Cc tiu (Minimum) : S b nht
Cc i (Maximum) : S ln nht Cc i (Maximum) : S ln nht
lch ca phn b dy s liu (Skewness) : i
lng o s i xng ca phn b s liu
CC C TRNG THNG K (tt)
3.Bng v th
Cc bng : d liu th ; d liu c sp xp, tn sut,
Cc th :
- Gin tn sut (frequency histograms) - Gin tn sut (frequency histograms)
- Cc th a thc tn sut (Relative frequency polygons)
- Cc th tuyn (Line graphs)
Cc hp v ru (Box and whisher plot)
Max
Phn t v
trn (75%)
S gia
Min
Phn t v
di (25%)
Trung bnh cng (Mean)
(Median)
S gia
(Median)
Sau khi thc hin cc bc trn ta tin hnh xy dng th biu
din s bin thin ca nng bi.
Bi
(mg/m
3
)
Nm
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Gin tn sut tch lu
50
75
100
a

n

s
u
a

t

(
%
)
Cumulative Frequency
S 25%
0
25
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4
No ng o (mg/m
3
)
T
a

n

s
Cumulative Frequency
Distribution (Tn sut tch lu)
S 75%
PHNG PHP HI QUI
PHN TCH CHIU HNG (TREND
ANALYSIS)
Phng php phn tch chiu hng cho php m phng quy
lut bin i ca chui s liu thi gian theo ng thng
(tuyn tnh); ng cong hm parabol hay hm m hay ng
cong dng S (S-curve).
- ng thng : Y = a +b.t - ng thng : Y = a +b.t
- ng cong hm parabol : Y = a + b.t + c.t
2
- Hm m : Z = exp(a +b.t)
- ng cong dng S : Z = exp(a +b/t)
V ng thng y = ax + b
x
3,
y
3
.
y = ax + b
x
1,
y
1
.
x
2,
y
2
a =tg
2.2. Phng phap liet ke so lieu
-Ngi lm TM phn tch hoat ng pht trin, chn ra
mt s thng s lin quan n MT.
-Lit k v cho cc s liu lin quan n cc thng s ,
chuyn ti ngi ra quyt nh xem xt. chuyn ti ngi ra quyt nh xem xt.
-Ngi lm TMkhng i su, phn tch ph phn g thm
m dnh cho ngi ra quyt nh la chn phng n theo
cm tnh sau khi c c cc s liu lit k
-V d (sgk)
u im:
-y l phng php n gin, d hiu, d s dng
-Rt cn thit v c ch trong bc nh gi s b v tc
ng n mi trng;
-Rt cn thit v c ch trong iu kin hon cnh khng
c iu kin v chuyn gia, s liu hoc kinh ph
thc hin TMmt cch y . thc hin TMmt cch y .
Nhc im:
- Thng tin khng y (s lc)
- Thng tin khng trc tip lin quan nhiu ti qu trnh
TM.
2.3. Phng phap danh muc (lp bng kim tra-
Check list )
2.3.1. Danh mc n gin
2.3.2. Danh mc m t
2.3.3. Danh mc cu hi
2.3.4. Danh mc nh gi s b mc tc ng
2.3.5. Danh mc c ghi trng s tc ng
2.3.2. Danh mc m t
- Thng c th hin dng ct, trong th hin mi quan h
gia cc thng s mi trng v cc hot ng ca DA.
- Cc hot ng no gy tc ng tiu cc n thng s MT th
c nh du.
- VD: bng m t tc ng do DA xy dng v hot ng nh my
lc du to ra
Hot ng
ca DA
Thng s MT
CLKK CLNM CL CLNN
Cng chuyn
du
x x
My lc du
Kho bo
qun du
V d 1: lp bng cu hi cho mt d n xy dng h
cha phc v thy in.
Cc cu hi v tc ng do v tr d n:
-Hu qu no v mt sinh thi khi thay i phng n s
dng t?
2.3.3. Danh mc cu hi
dng t?
- Cc hu qu no s xy ra nu HST t nhin b suy
thoi?
-- Cc hu qu c th c do vic di dn ra khi khu vc
h cha v ti nh c?
-- nh hng KT XH ca vic chuyn vng t hin
nay thnh h cha.?
Cc cu hi v tc ng do vic thit k v
xy dng h cha
-Vic xy dng h cha c tnh ti cc yu t sinh thi
hay khng?
-Bin php o, p xy dng cng trnh NTN hn
ch tc ng MT.?
- Cc tc ng v mt sc khe do vic tp trung cng -- Cc tc ng v mt sc khe do vic tp trung cng
nhn v bin php hn ch tc ng?
Cc cu hi v tc ng trong qu trnh
hot ng ca h cha.
-Cc bin php no c th p dng bo v v pht
trin ti nguyn thy sn trong lu vc?
-- H cha c b nhim do nc ma cun tri phn
bn, ha cht BVTV, cht thi khng?
- Qu trnh bi lng, xi mn mc no? -- Qu trnh bi lng, xi mn mc no?
-- Din bin CLN v ONN trong h v h lu?
-- s hot ng ca h c nh hng g ti s xm nhp
mn h lu hng?
-- Cc tc ng tch cc, tiu cc ca h cha n KT-
XH vng ven h v h lu
Bi tp: Lp bng cu hi cho mt DA xy dng v
hot ng KCN vng ca sng
2.3.4. Danh mc nh gi s b mc tc ng
VD: Bng kim tra nh gi kh nng tc ng tiu cc n MT
ca cc loi hnh cng nghip trong mt khu vc.
Loi cng
nghip
Thng s MT
CLN CLKK HSTN HSTC
nghip
CLN CLKK HSTN HSTC
CN
ng
++ ++ ++ O
Ru, bia ++ + ++ O
Bt giy ++ ++ ++ +
Ch thch: Du ++: ch tc ng mnh
+: ch tc ng r rt
o: ch tc ng yu, k r rt
2.3.5. Danh mc c ghi trng s tc ng
U V NHC IM CA PHNG PHP
u im:
-R rng, d hiu
- Nu ngi nh gi am hiu v ni dung cc hot ng PT,
KTN, XH ti ni thc hin DA th phng php ny c th
a ra nhng co s tt cho vic quyt nh a ra nhng co s tt cho vic quyt nh
- Phng php c vai tr l mt cng c nhc nh hu ch v
phm vi cng nh dng cc tc ng.
- Gip xc nh cc tc ng v c th gip ngi thc hin c c
hi xc nh tm quan trng ca tc ng.
Nhc im:
-Phng php cha ng nhiu nhn t ch quan ca
ngi nh gi
-Ph thuc vo nhng quy c c tnh cht cm tnh v
tm quan trng, cc cp, im s quy nh cho tng tm quan trng, cc cp, im s quy nh cho tng
thng s
-Hn ch trong vic tng hp tt c cc tc ng, i
chiu, so snh cc phng n khc nhau
-Cc danh mc hoc qu chung chung hoc khng y

-Mt s tc ng d lp li, do c tnh ton hai

hoc nhiu ln trong vic tng hp thnh tng tc ng
-khng ch ra c mi lin h gia nguyn nhn v hu
qu ca cc tc ng
Thiu hng dn cch o c cc tc ng v d on -Thiu hng dn cch o c cc tc ng v d on
- Phng php ny khng c cc quy, th tc nhm gii
thch, truyn ti v quan trc tc ng.
2.4. Phng phap ma tran (Matrix)
2.4.1. Khi qut phng php Ma trn.
-Bng Ma trn mi trng l s pht trin ng dng ca bng
kim tra.
-Mt bng ma trn cng l s i chiu tng hot ng ca d n
vi tng thng s hoc thnh phn mi trng nh gi mi vi tng thng s hoc thnh phn mi trng nh gi mi
quan h nguyn nhn v hu qu.
Khi qut ni dung ca bng ma trn nh sau:
- Trc tung l cc nhn t mi trng.
-Trc honh l cc hot ng DA
- nm gia hng v ct trong ma trn s c dng ch kh
nng tc ng
Ty thuc vo cch s dng ny m ta c th chia ma trn MT
thnh mt s loi nh sau:
2.4.1. Ma trn n gin
2.4.2. Ma trn theo bc
2.4.3. Ma trn nh lng- ma trn theo cp
2.4.3. Ma trn nh lng- ma trn theo cp
-Ma tran khong co trong so : xem tat ca cac yeu to co cung
trong so tac ong
- Ma tran co trong so (Weighted Matrix)
- Mc (cng ) tc ng c nh gi bng cch cho im
(thang im ph thuc vo ngi nh gi: t 1 n 3; t 1 n (thang im ph thuc vo ngi nh gi: t 1 n 3; t 1 n
10, 100). Tc ng cng mnh, im s cng cao. Tng s
im cho thy thnh phn hoc thng s mi trng no b tc
ng nng nht cho d n.
V D 1: PHNG PHAP MA TRAN
(tt)
Hoat ong at Nc Khong
kh
TN
sinh hoc
Cac cong
trnh LS
Sc khoe
kh sinh hoc trnh LS
H1 + + + 0 + +
H2 + 0 + + + +
V D 2: PHNG PHAP MA TRAN (tt)
Hoat ong at Nc Khong
kh
TN
sinh hoc
Cac cong
trnh LS
Sc khoe
H1 - - + - - +
H2 + - - - 0 -
V D 3: PHNG PHAP MA TRAN (tt)
Hoat ong at Nc Khong
kh
TN
sinh hoc
Cac cong
trnh LS
Sc khoe
H1 ++ -- + - 0 ++
H2 - +++ -- 0 --- 0
NH GI V VIC NG DNG PHNG PHP
MA TRN TRONG 3 V D TRN
Mc o tac ong:
+++ : co li nhieu
++ : li trung bnh
+ : li t
--- : co hai nhi
u v nhc im:
--- : co hai nhi
-- : hai trung bnh
- : hai t
+ : co li
- : co hai
0 : khong tac ong
u v nhc im:
PHNG PHAP MA TRAN (tt)
Ma tran 3 : khong nh lng c (the nao la tac ong
nhieu hay t), khong so sanh cac tac ong c va rat chu
quan
e han che cac nhc iem cua 3 ma tran tren Ma tran 4 :
ma tran cho iem
V D 4: PHNG PHAP MA TRAN (tt)
Hoat ong at Nc Khong
kh
TN
sinh hoc
Cac cong
trnh LS
Sc khoe Tong
cong
H1 -3 -1 -3 -2 -1 +1 -9
H2 -1 -1 -1 +2 +1 -1 -1
H3 +3 -1 -2 +3 -1 +2 +4
-1 +1 +1 +3 +3 +3 +10
H150 +3 -2 +2 -2 +3 +1 +5
Tong cong +1 -4 -3 +4 +5 +6 +9
V D 4: PHNG PHAP MA TRAN (tt)
Chu thch : +3, +2,+1 : tac ong co li
-3, -2,-1 : tac ong co hai
u iem cua ma tran 4:
- anh gia tong hp c mot tac ong cua hoat ong len - anh gia tong hp c mot tac ong cua hoat ong len
cac yeu to moi trng (theo hang)
- Cho phep tong hp cac hoat ong tac ong len mot yeu to
moi trng (theo cot)
- Cho phep anh gia tac ong cua toan bo d an
- Cho phep la chon cac phng an
- Xac nh c van e u tien
- Xac nh c van e cap bach
PHNG PHAP MA TRAN (tt)
VD : Chon v tr thch hp e xay dng bai rac
VT1 lap ma tran tac ong 1 (VD : tong iem anh gia la
+10)
VT2 lap ma tran tac ong 2 (+5)
VT3 lap ma tran tac ong 3 (-3)
==> van e u tien : VT1 c chon u tien1, VT2 u tien ==> van e u tien : VT1 c chon u tien1, VT2 u tien
2, VT3 khong c chap nhan v d an se gay tac ong co
ha cho moi trng. Do do VT1 c chon e xay dng bai
chon lap.
Tng t vi : la chon cong nghe x ly rac, la chon thiet
b, la chon cac giai phap
PHNG PHAP MA TRAN (tt)
Tieu ch chon van e u tien :
TC1 Tnh cap bach
TC2 Kha nang huy ong von
TC3 Kha nang thu hoi von TC3 Kha nang thu hoi von
TC4 Pham vi hoat ong cua d an
TC5 Giai quyet cong an viec lam
PHNG PHAP MA TRAN (tt)
Cho iem moi tieu ch nh sau: 1, 2, 3
iem toi a : 15 iem
iem toi thieu : 5 iem
u tien 1 : Cac d an co tong iem t 12 15 iem (2005
2007) 2007)
u tien 2 : Cac d an co tong iem t 9 < 12 iem (2007
2012)
u tien 3 : Cac d an co tong iem t 5 < 9iem (2012
2015)
Ma tran 5: Thiet lap ma tran e chon van e u tien
PHNG PHAP MA TRAN (tt)
D an TC1 TC2 TC3 TC4 TC5 Tong iem Mc o u ien
DA1 3 1 1 2 1 8 u tien 3
DA2 2 3 1 3 3 12 u tien 1 DA2 2 3 1 3 3 12 u tien 1
---- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
DA150 1 2 1 3 1 8 u tien 3
PHNG PHAP MA TRAN (tt)
Hoat ong TP1 TP2 TP3 TP4 TP5 Tong iem
H1 +3 -2 -2 +1 -3 -3
H2 -2 +1 -3 -1 +1 -4
H3 +1 +2 -2 -1 -2 -2
---- --- --- --- --- --- +2
H150 -2 +1 +3 +3 -1 +4
Cho
trong
so
H150 -2 +1 +3 +3 -1 +4
1 2 3 1 2
Hoat ong TP1 TP2 TP3 TP4 TP5 Tong iem
H1 +3 -4 -6 +1 -6 -3/-12
H2 -2 +2 -9 -1 +2 -4/-8
H3 +1 +4 -6 -1 -4 -2/-6
---- --- --- --- --- --- ?
H150 -2 +2 +9 +3 -2 +4/+10
PHNG PHAP MA TRAN (tt)
3
1
Hoat ong
TP1 TP2 TP3 TP4 TP5 Tong iem
H1 +9 -6 -6 +3 -9 -3/-9
H2 -2 +1 -3 -1 +1 -4/-4
1
1
2
H3 +2 +4 -4 -2 -4 -2/-4
---- --- --- --- --- --- ?
H150 -2 +1 +3 +3 -1 +4/+4
PHNG PHAP MA TRAN (tt)
1 2 3 1 2
Hoat ong
TP1 TP2 TP3 TP4 TP5 Tong iem
3
1
2
1
H1 +9 -12 -18 +3 -18 -3/-36
H2 -2 +2 -9 -1 +2 -4/-8
H3 +2 +8 -12 -2 -8 -2/-12
---- --- --- --- --- --- ?
H150 -2 +2 +9 +3 -2 +4/+10
PHNG PHAP MA TRAN (tt)
Cac loai ma tran cho iem van mang tnh chu quan. e giam
bt tnh chu quan tren, khi tien hanh lap ma tran tac ong
can lay y kien cua nhieu ngi (c thc hien mot cach
ngau nhien). (VD : trong 1000 nha khoa hoc th chon ngau
nhien 50 nha khoa hoc e tien hanh anh gia th mc o nhien 50 nha khoa hoc e tien hanh anh gia th mc o
anh gia se khach quan hn va nh vay se giam bt c
tnh chu quan cua ngi anh).
Mt tch cc v hn ch ca phng php ma trn.
Tch cc:
Phng php ma trn rt c gi tr cho vic xc nh tc ng
ca d n v a ra c hnh thc thng tin tm tt nh gi
tc ng.
L phng php n gin, d s dng, khng i hi nhiu s L phng php n gin, d s dng, khng i hi nhiu s
liu mi trng nhng li c th phn tch tng minh c
nhiu hnh ng khc nhau ln cng mt nhn t.
Mi quan h gia pht trin v mi trng c th hin r
rng.
C th nh gi s b mc tc ng.
Hn ch:
-Khng gii thch c cc nh hng th cp v cc
nh hng tip theo, ngoi tr ma trn theo bc
- Cha xt n din bin theo thi gian ca cc hot
ng, tc ng nn cha phn bit c tc ng lu ng, tc ng nn cha phn bit c tc ng lu
di hay tm thi.
- Ngi c phi t gii thch mi lin quan gia
nguyn nhn v hu qu.
- Khng gii thch c s khng chc chn ca cc s
liu.
- Khng a ra c nguyn l/nguyn tc xc nh
cc s liu v cht lng v s lng.
- Khng c tiu chun xc nh phm vi v tm - Khng c tiu chun xc nh phm vi v tm
quan trng ca tc ng.
2.5.Phng phap mang li (Network)
NI DUNG
-Phng php mng li nhm kt hp cc nguyn nhn
v hu qu ca tc ng bng cch xc nh mi quan
h tng h gia ngun tc ng v cc yu t mi h tng h gia ngun tc ng v cc yu t mi
trng b tc ng mc s cp (tc ng trc tip) v
th cp (tc ng gin tip).
-Phng php ny c mc ch phn tch cc tc ng
song song v ni tip do cc hot ng gy ra
- S dng phng php s mng li trc ht phi
lit k ton b cc hnh ng trong hot ng v xc
nh mi quan h nhn qu gia nhng hnh ng
- Cc quan h ni cc hnh ng li vi nhau thnh
mt mng li.
- Trn mng li c th phn bit c tc ng bc 1
do mt hnh ng trc tip gy ra, ri tc ng bc 2
do tc ng bc 1 gy ra, v ln lt cc tc ng bc
3, 4,
- Phng php ny thng c th hin qua s
chui ni tip. Hnh nh km cho thy cc
hu qu mi trng ca mt d n no vt
lng sng. lng sng.
o lp y
Thay i ia
hnh y
Loi b ni c tr
ca ng vt y
Mt bn y
Tng su
Thay i thy vn
No vt
Mt ng vt y
nhim nn y
Ci thin giao thng
Thay i mn
nh hng kinh t
Pht trin giao
thng
Thay i cht lng
b bn y
Thay i thy vn
ln b
xung sng
Thay i cht lng
nc
Suy gim ti
nguyn sinh vt
Gim nhim
nh hng h sinh
thi cn
nh hng h sinh
thi nc
S mng li v tc ng mi trng ca d n no vt lung
ng dng PP
--Dng Dng phng phng php php ny ny xem xem xt xt cc cc bin bin php php
phng phng trnh trnh,, hoc hoc hn hn ch ch cc cc tc tc ng ng tiu tiu cc cc n n
ti ti nguyn nguyn mi mi trng trng..
-Vn dng PP rng ri vo vic pht trin cc vng ven
bin nhm gii quyt mu thun gia cc yu cu s bin nhm gii quyt mu thun gia cc yu cu s
dng gia cc ngnh kinh t khc nhau v ngn chn
xu th thoi ha ti nguyn ti cc vng ny.
u im
-Cho bit nguyn nhn v con ng dn ti nhng hu
qu tiu cc ti mi trng, t c th xut nhng
bin php phng trnh ngay khu quy hoch, thit k hot
ng pht trin . ng pht trin .
-Thch hp cho phn tch tc ng sinh thi
-Phng php s mng li thng c dng nh
gi tc ng mi trng ca mt n c th
Nhc im:
-Cc s mng li ch ch phn tch cc kha cnh tiu
cc
-Trn mng li cng khng th phn bit c tc ng
trc mt v tc ng lu di
-Phng php ny cha th dng phn tch cc tc ng
x hi, cc vn v thm m
-Khng thch hp vi cc chng trnh hoc k hoch khai
thc ti nguyn trn mt a phng
-
-Vic xc nh tm quan trng ca cc nhn t mi
trng, ch tiu cht lng mi trng cn mang tnh
ch quan.
Vic quy hoch tng tc ng ca mt phng n vo -Vic quy hoch tng tc ng ca mt phng n vo
mt con s khng gip ch thit thc cho vic ra quyt
nh
-S phn bit khu vc tc ng, kh nng trnh, gim
cc tc ng khng th biu hin trn mng li
2.6. anh gia nhanh (Rapid Assessment)
-NI DUNG:
-Phng php nh gi nhanh l phng php nh gi da
vo h s pht thi nhim.
-Phng php anh gi nhanh c hiu qu cao trong xc nh
ti lng, nng nhim i vi cc DA cng nghip, ti lng, nng nhim i vi cc DA cng nghip,
th, giao thng. T c th d bo kh nng tc ng mi
trng ca cc ngun gy nhim
-Phng php nh gi nhanh dng d bo nhanh ti lng
cho c s pht sinh cht nhim
2.6. anh gia nhanh (Rapid Assessment)
Ti Ti lng lng : Khi lng cht nhim/n v thi
gian
(Tn, kg, g, mg/nm,thng,ngy, gi, pht,giy)
V d : Mi mt ngy nh my thi ra 1.000 tn SO2,
5000 tn BOD ti lng nhim SO2 l 1.000 tn
SO2/ngy; ti lng nhim BOD l 5.000 tn
BOD/ngy
2.6. anh gia nhanh (Rapid Assessment)
H H s s nhim nhim : Khi lng cht nhim/n v hot
ng
(T, kg, g, mg/n v hot ng)
V d : t mt tn du FO cha 3% lu hunh sinh
ra 57 kg SO2 H s nhim SO2 l 57 kg/tn du
2.6.1. TI LNG NHIM DO NC THI
- Lu lng v thnh phn cht thi ph thuc vo mt
lot cc thng s. i vi kh thi cng nh nc thi, ti
lng L ca cht gy nhim j c th biu th bng
phng trnh ton hc nh sau: phng trnh ton hc nh sau:
Lj Lj = f (z) = f (z)
Trong , z l cc thng s:
- Dng ngun pht thi (Nh my sn xut xi mng, phng tin
vn ti).
- c tnh hot ng ca ngun (ct h cnh, tiu th nguyn nhin
liu).
- Quy m ngun. - Quy m ngun.
- Quy trnh v thit k ca ngun.
- Tui ngun v c tnh chnh xc cng ngh.
- Ch vn hnh v bo dng.
- Dng v cht lung nguyn nhin liu s dng.
_- Hiu qu ca h thng x l.
- iu kin mi trng xung quanh.
xc nh c ti lng Lj thi ra mi trng, trc ht ta cn
phi xc nh c h s ti lng ej (kg/n v) i vi cht
nhim j qua phng trnh:
Lj(kg/nm)
ej =
n (n v sn lng/ nm)
-Lj: ti lng ca tc nhn nhim j
- n: s n v sn phm ca nh my
- ej: h s pht thi ca tc nhn nhim j
- c th thc hin tng i chnh xc vic tnh ti
lng v nng nhim trung bnh cho tng ngnh
cng nghip m khng cn n thit b o c, phn
tch, T chc Y t Th gii (WHO) ngh s dng
phng php nh gi nhanh (Rapid Assessment). phng php nh gi nhanh (Rapid Assessment).
- Cc chuyn gia WHO xy dng bng hng dn
nh gi nhanh, xc xc nh nh ej ej kg kg cht cht nhim nhim//n n v v
sn sn phm phm, , t xc nh c ti lng tng tc nhn
nhim Lj trong ngnh cng nghip.
V D:
Mt nh my lc du theo cng ngh cracking c cng
sut 5.000.000 m3 du th/nm, th lng nhim a
ra mi trng hng ngy?
Bng 2.1 - Ti lng nhim trong nc thi ca mt s ngnh
cng nghip cng nghip
Cng nghip Th tch nc
thi
(m
3
/n
v)
BOD
5
(kg/
n
v)
TSS
(kg/
n
v)
Tng N
(kg/
n
v)
Tng P
(kg/
n
v)
Tc nhn khc
(kg/n
v)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Cng nghip ru, bia
Sn xut ru vang (tn nho) 2 1,6 0,3
Sn xut bia: mi/c (m
3
) 5,4/11 10,5/18,8 3,9/7,3
Cng nghip thuc da (tn da thnh phm) 57 635 104 12 Du: 57,8;
phenol:
0,11;
sulfur: sulfur:
3,35.
Cng nghip phn bn
Phn ure (tn sn phm) 0,24 10
Phn super ln (tn P
2
O
5
) 1,25 0,65
Phn NPK (tn sn phm) 0,4
Cng nghip lc du
Lc du topping (1000m
3
du
th)
484 3,4 11,7
Lc du cracking (1000m
3
du
th)
605 72,9 18,2
Lc ha du (1000m
3
du th) 726 172 48,6
Cng sut lc du: 5 triu m3/nm = 13.698 m3/ngy.
Lng nc thi: (m3/ngy).
Ti lng BOD: (kg/ngy).
287 . 8 605
1000
13698
=
6 , 998 9 , 72
13698
=
Ti lng BOD: (kg/ngy).
Ti lng TSS: (kg/ngy).
6 , 998 9 , 72
1000
=
3 , 249 2 , 18
1000
13698
=
BTVN: mt nh my sn xut bia c cng sut 167 triu
litre/nm, th lng nhim a vo mi trng mi ngy:
2.6.2. TI LNG NHIM DO KH
THI
Bng 2.2 - Ti lng nhim trong kh thi ca mt s hot
ng.
Hot ng n v
(U
)
Bi
(kg/
U)
SO
2
(kg/U) NO
2
(kg/
U)
CO (kg/U) VOC
(kg/U)
Cht
kh
c
(kg
/U)
t rm r trn rung 1000
m
2
5 26 9
Sn xut than ci Tn 133 12 172 157
Sn xut H
2
SO
4
Tn 7(100 e)
*
SO
3
:
0,2
9
Sn xut HNO
3
Tn 22 Sn xut HNO
3
Tn 22
Sn xut ure Tn 0,0105 NH
3
:
9,1
2
Sn xut gang
Khng x l Tn 6,9 0,65 73 Pb:
0,3
2
C x l: thp
ti/lc bi
Tn 1,6/0,3 0,35/0,65 73/73 0,17/0,0
1
Xe ti trn 2000cc
i trong thnh
ph
1000
k
m
0,07 2,13S 2,57 23,4 2,84
Bi tp: mt nh my sn xut gang vi cng sut 500000
tn/nm, nu khng c h thng x l kh thi, hng ngy
nh my a vo khng kh mt khi lng cht nhim
l:
Bi =
6.9 x 500000
365
= 9.452kg/ngy
365
SO2, CO, Pb
u im
-Phng php nh gi nhanh c hiu qu cao trong vic xc nh
ti lng, nng nhim i vi cc d n cng nghip, th,
giao thng. T c th d bo kh nng tc ng mi trng ca
cc ngun gy nhim
-y l phng php d dng s dng, khng i hi kin thc, k
thut chuyn mn cao thut chuyn mn cao
-C th thc hin kim k tng hp cho kh thi, nc thi, CTR v
nhim t trong thi gian ngn
-Kh nng ngun nhn lc vu phi
-Chi ph khng qu t
-C th c tnh d dng hiu qu ca cc cng ngh kim sot
nhim v kh nng gim ti lng nhim
Nhc im
-Cc iu kin c trng c th ca cc ngun thi cha xem xt
n nn c th nh hng n d liu ca cc kch bn nhim.
-Cc d liu kt qu t nh gi nhanh l s liu s b v cn phi
xc nhn li t cc phn tch chi tit hn trc khi thc hin cc
chin dch gim thiu. chin dch gim thiu.
- Phng php cha cho thy c ci nhn tng qut v tc ng
ca d n ti cc thnh phn mi trng.
- Khng thy c cc tc ng s cp v th cp.
- Ngi c phi t phn tch, nh gi v suy lun kt qu tnh
tan.
- Phng php khng cho thy c din bin theo thi gian ca
cc tc nhn gy nhim
2.7. Phng phap chong ghep ban o (Overmapping)
(GIS)
MC CH:
Nhm xem xt s b cc tc ng c th c ca d n
n tng thnh phn mi trng trong vng, t
nh hng nghin cu nh lng bng phng php nh hng nghin cu nh lng bng phng php
khc bc tip theo.
2.7. Phng phap chong ghep ban o
(Overmapping) (GIS)
NI DUNG:
- Phng php ny s dng nhng bn v cc c
trng mi trng trong khu vc nghin cu v trn giy
trong sut.
- Mi bn din t khu vc a l vi tng c trng - Mi bn din t khu vc a l vi tng c trng
mi trng xc nh qua ti liu iu tra c bn.
- Thuc tnh ca c trng mi trng c xc nh
bng cp . V d: vng nhim va t mu nht, vng
nhim nng t mu m
- thc thc hin hin phng phng php php ny ny,, nghin nghin cu cu TM TM cn cn
c c y y s s liu liu v v cc cc thnh thnh phn phn mi mi trng trng vng vng
d d n n..
- Tng thnh phn mi trng c th hin trn bn
n tnh (bn a hnh, bn th nhng, bn
thy vc, bn thm thc vt, bn s dng t,
bn phn b dn c, ) c cng t l. Cc bn
ny c v trn my vi tnh (GIS) hay v trn giy
trong sut.
xc nh cc tc ng DA ln thnh phn mi trng?
Bn lm nh th no?
- xc nh s b v tr nh hng ca cc hot ng DA
ta ch cn chng lp bn DA ln tng bn n tnh
-S dng phng php chng bn s gip vic xem xt
r rng hn cc tc ng ca DA n khu vc.
Bn nn
S khu dn c
Ngun d liu u vo
ca h thng GIS s
dng lm c s TM
Khng nh
Bn quy hoch
Phiu thng tin
2.7. Phng phap chong ghep ban o
(Overmapping) (GIS)
u im:
Phng php chp bn n gin, r rng, d hiu, kt qu xem
xt th hin trc tip bng hnh nh, thch hp vi vic nh gi
cc phng n s dng t.
Nhc im: Nhc im:
- Th hin thin nhin v mi trng mt cch tnh ti
- o cc c trng mi trng trn bn thng khi qut
- nh gi mc cui cng v tng tc ng ph thuc nhiu vo
ch quan ca ngi nh gi.
2.8. Phng php m hnh (Environmental
Modelling)
2.8.1Khi nim v m hnh ha
-M hnh ha mi trng l cch tip cn ton hc m
phng din bin cht lng mi trng di nh hng
ca mt hoc tp hp cc tc nhn c kh nng tc ng ca mt hoc tp hp cc tc nhn c kh nng tc ng
n mi trng.
-y l phng php c ngha ln nht trong qun l
mi trng, d bo cc tc ng mi trng v kim sot
cc ngun gy nhim.
-Trong qu trnh TM, chng ta c th s dng cc m hnh
nh gi kh nng lan truyn cht nhim, mc nhim, c
tnh gi tr cc thng s chi ph, li ch, Trong phn ln cc bo
co TM u trnh by phng php ny, cng nh kt qu tnh
ton nh lng. ton nh lng.
- M hnh thng dng nht: m hnh lan truyn cht nhim trong
khng kh v nc, m hnh tnh ton chi ph li ch m rng cng
vi hiu qu kinh t ca d n.
2.8. Phng php m hnh (Environmental
Modelling)
M hnh : m phng cc i tng thc t trn c
s mt s gi thit.
C ba loi m hnh:
- M hnh thng k
- M hnh vt l
- M hnh ton hc
2.8. Phng php m hnh (Environmental
Modelling)
- M hnh thng k: Da vo chui s liu quan trc
trong qu kh d bo cho tng lai
- M hnh vt l : m hnh m t i tng thc t
bng cch rt gn kch thc theo t l nht nh bng cch rt gn kch thc theo t l nht nh
- M hnh ton hc: m t (m phng) cc i tng
thc t di dng phng tnh ton hc km theo mt
s gi thit.
2.8. Phng php m hnh (Environmental
Modelling)
Cc loi m hnh ton hc:
- M hnh d bo dn s
- D bo sinh tng ca qun th sinh vt, ng vt
- D bo cht lng khng kh, cht lng nc
- D bo thy vn - D bo thy vn
- M t qu trnh sy ra trong mt thng phn ng ha hc,
sinh hc
M hnh cht lng khng kh
M M hnh hnh im im (point (point source) source)
M M hnh hnh ng ng (line (line source) source)
M M hnh hnh vng vng (area (area source) source)
2.8.2.i tng ca m hnh ha:
- Mi yu t, qu trnh, hin tng c th xc nh mt
cch nh tnh th u c th nh lng ha v m hnh
ha.
-Nu nh kt lun nh tnh ch nu c mc rng, Nu nh kt lun nh tnh ch nu c mc rng,
hp, cao, thp, to ,nh, ca cc i tng th s dng
m hnh ha c th c lng gi tr ca chng.
-i tng ca MHH rt a dng, c th ch l hin tng
n gin, song c khi li kh phc tp vi s ph thuc
ln nhau ca rt nhiu yu t.
2.8.3.Cng c dng trong m hnh ha
-Cng c dng trong MHH l cc kin thc ha hc, ton
hc, l hc, cng vi s hiu bit v i tng s c
m hnh ha.
2.8.4.Thit lp bi ton m hnh
Khi kin thc chuyn mn:
-Phi hiu r hin tng hoc qu trnh cng nh s pht
trin ca n.
-Phi xc nh c phm vi, thi gian, khng gian cng
nh cc yu t quyt nh qu trnh v cch o c, xc
nh chng
- phi nm vng cc quy lut quyt nh cc hin tng v
s thay i cc yu t trong qu trnh pht trin
-Phi hiu cc cng c ton hc, tin hc c th gii quyt
vn t ra c khng?
-Ngi lp bi ton phi lit k c cc tham s ca m Ngi lp bi ton phi lit k c cc tham s ca m
hnh, khong gi tr ca chng, kh nng xc nh chng
thng qua o c hoc tnh ton (i khi cc gi tr c
trng ca cc tham s ny c th ly t cc ti liu thng
k hoc s dng cc ti liu cng b).
Chuyn gia ton tin:
-Da vo cch t vn ca cc nh chuyn mn
hnh dung m hnh, ti to li m hnh thng qua cc s
logic biu din s phc thuc ln nhau gia cc yu t logic biu din s phc thuc ln nhau gia cc yu t
m hnh.
-Thng cc mi quan h qua cc nh lut vt l, ha
hc, sinh hc, hoc phi m phng qua cc hm tan
hc thch hp.
-Tm thut ton gii quyt
-Lp trnh gii cc bi ton
Cc bc trin
Xy dng cc mc tiu
Xem xt cc c s l thuyt
Xy dng cc cng thc m phng
Thit lp cu trc m hnh
Cc bc trin
khai m hnh ha
mi trng
Thit lp phng php gii
Trin khai trng trnh my tnh
Hiu chnh v sa cha
Phn tch nhy
MT S BI TON S DNG M HNH
Bi ton 1: Bi ton s dng hp l ti nguyn:
-Xc nh mc khai thc hp l khng lm cn kit ngun ti
nguyn
-S dng TN ny khng lm nh hng n TN khc.
VD: Thit lp m hnh s dng h ln vo nui trng -VD: Thit lp m hnh s dng h ln vo nui trng
thy sn
- Xc nh c cc yu t t nhin v xh tc ng n qu trnh
sinh trng ca cc loi thy sn c nui, t xc nh c
tc tng trng tr lng cng nh mc tr lng ti a m h
c th cha c
Nh chuyn mn:
-Nh sinh hc c th cung cp cc quy lut tng trng ca cc loi.
Nh ton tin:
- Tm ra cc hm s thch hp m phng qu trnh tng trng
Nh chuyn mn:
-Nh sinh hc c th cung cp cc quy lut tng trng ca cc loi.
Nh ton tin:
- Tm ra cc hm s thch hp m phng qu trnh tng trng - Tm ra cc hm s thch hp m phng qu trnh tng trng
Vn l khai thc mc no c hiu qu kinh t cao m
tr lng c vn n nh.
- Nu bit kh nng nh bt ca mt chic thuyn v mc
tng trng ca c trong h th c th t bi ton tm mi quan h
gia c v thuyn.
M phng qu trnh ny bng mt m hnh. T xc nh
mc nh bt hp l cng nh quy trnh nui trng hp l
- Tm ra cc hm s thch hp m phng qu trnh tng trng
Vn l khai thc mc no c hiu qu kinh t cao m
tr lng c vn n nh.
- Nu bit kh nng nh bt ca mt chic thuyn v mc
tng trng ca c trong h th c th t bi ton tm mi quan h
gia c v thuyn.
M phng qu trnh ny bng mt m hnh. T xc nh
mc nh bt hp l cng nh quy trnh nui trng hp l
Bi ton 2: nh gi hin trng ONMT v tc ng
MT
VD: nh gi mc ONKK do pht thi t mt ng kho
nh my, kh nng tc ng ca chng n sc khe con
ngi v HST vng xung quanh.
(MH : Gause, Berliand)
Cc s liu u vo ca MH:
-Cc s liu v ngun thi: cao ngun, ng knh ming thi, -Cc s liu v ngun thi: cao ngun, ng knh ming thi,
mc thi cht ON, nhit kh thi, vn tc thi kh.
-Cc s liu kh tng: tc gi, hng gi, nhit kk, my,
-Cc s liu v a hnh, vt chn.
-Cc tham s v bin i ca cht ON trong kh quyn(kh nng
phn ng vi cc cht trong qu trnh lan truyn.
+ T cc s liu u vo c th c tnh cc tham s ca
m hnh v tin hnh lp trnh tnh ton phn b nng
cc cht ON
Thng tin u ra:
D liu v nng cht nhim theo thi gian v v tr
trong li o theo yu cu.
M hnh pht tn nhim t mt vng
Thong tin kh
tng, a
hnh, he toa o
So lieu quan
trac o nhiem
hnh, he toa o
Thong tin ve
nguon o nhiem
CHAY MO
HNH
SO SANH
HIEU CHNH
KET
QUA
2.9. PHNG PHP PHN TCH LI CH- CHI PH
-Cc gi tr thng c s dng trong phn tch li ch
chi ph m rng
Cng thc chit khu:
FV
t
PV =
(1 + r)
t
(1 + r)
t
PV (Present Value): Gi tr dng tin thi im
gc, tc l lc bt u d n
FVt (Future Value): Gi tr dng tin trong nm t
r: T l chit khu (thng tnh theo li sut ngn
hng)
t: S nm t khi bt u d n
1) Vi cc gii php c chi ph thp hay trung
bnh
a. Thi gian hon vn (payback period)
C th s dng tiu ch n gin l thi gian hon vn
nh gi. Thi gian hon vn l thi gian cn thit cc dng
tin tng lai d tnh c th hon li c dng tin u t ban
u. u.
Thi gian hon vn c s dng ch yu nh gi cc
u t v thit b khi thi gian hon vn ngn (1-3 nm) v
khng cn thit phi dng n cc phng php nh gi chi
tit hn.
Thi gian hon vn gin n:
Nu cc dng tin tng lai c tnh c nh bng nhau, th thi
gian hon vn gin n s l:
Vn u t ban u
Thi gian hon vn nm =
Dng tin rng mt nm
Gi l thi gian hon vn n gin v khng tnh n chit khu
ca cc dng tin tng lai.
Thi gian hon vn cng ngn th phng n a ra xem xt cng
kh thi.
Thi gian hon vn chit khu
Thi gian hon vn c th c tnh bng cch da trn nhng
dng tin tng lai c chit khu. Cch tnh ny chnh xc
hn bi v n nhn nhn gi tr thi gian ca ng tin.
C th s dng phng php cng dn tnh Thi gian hon vn C th s dng phng php cng dn tnh Thi gian hon vn
chit khu.
Thi gian hon vn chit khu c chit khu ca mt d n s di
hn Thi gian hon vn gin n ca n.
2) Vi cc gii php c chi ph cao
Vi cc gii php c chi ph cao, cn phi chi tit hn - tc l
phi tnh n li sut/chit khu. Khi ngi ta thng dng 3
tiu ch sau:
a. Gi tr hin ti rng ca u t cho sn xut (NPV = Net Present
Value).
NPV NPV == hin hin gi gi li li ch ch -- hin hin gi gi chi chi ph ph phi phi >> 00 th th gii gii php php u u
t t xem xem xt xt mi mi l l kh kh thi thi v v kinh kinh t t..
Khi c s la chn gia cc gii php SXSH khc nhau, gii php
no c NPV cao nht s c chn thc hin.