Putin 2011~2012

Putins Kingdom Unchallenged

Contentious Politics during the Two
Federal Elections, 2011~2012

Nee, George
Ph. D Candidate, Department of Political Science, National Chen-Chi
University, Taipei, Taiwan, ROC

82

Putins Kingdom Unchallenged

Contentious Politics during the Two
Federal Elections, 2011~2012
Nee, George
Ph. D Candidate, Department of Political Science, National Chen-Chi
University, Taipei, Taiwan, ROC

Abstract
At the end of the year 2011, citizens who live in Russia large cities found fraud
which was manipulated by government in the State Duma election. They held protest,
rallies and any kind of activities to show the anger and distrust of that regime for months.
Surprisingly or not, Putins got his life time No. 3 landslide winning in the presidential
election in March, 2012.
Here are some inquiry needs to be claried. As we knew that democratic backlash
happened in Russia for a decade, not only Putin but also the general public seems quite
calm before the protest. What are the main characteristics of Putin-Medvedev regime
that stabilize the state and society nearly so fine, and why the color revolutions
stopped at waters edge? Did the protest movement from below shake the foundation of
Russia political landscape, if not, why? I propose that the weakness of civil society and
its NGO sectors that make them impotent to check and balance the state and political
elites. And even more, Putin eliminated small political parties by law and make elections
incompetent and uncompetitive. Opposition parties which cross the threshold of Duma
election and get seats became so corrupt and sharing administrative resources as
much as they can. Thats the reason why the street ghters for democracy and freedom
going alone without the help from established oppositions. There is still an enigma
why people still support Putin. I unpack the black box in a social constructivist way that
emphasize Putin, and those before and after him, gave Russian a strong and prosperous
national identity, which make people going back to the glorious days of Big Russia in
comparison those who claim democracy are easily associated with the image of small
Russia that full of miserable memories of shock therapy. I borrowed electoral model
to investigate the prerequisites and processes in the street protest in the nal paragraph.
Its interesting to compare the dynamic, process and consequences of Orange Revolution
in Ukraine with the New Decemberists in Moscow and St, Petersburg. Lack of protest
experiences and the skills of organizing the public, the Just Protest style make rallies
carnival-like events and failed to link other social movements in the Russia territory and
the missed windows of opportunity of social and political change.
Keywords: Electoral Authoritarianism, Contentious Politics, Democratization, Civic
Society, National Identity

83

Putin 2011~2012

2011

Putin Dmitry Medvedev

Vladimir Putin
Putin-Medvedev

Putin

Putin-Medvedev

84East Asian Studies

20137

201112
199112
2012

Vladimir Putin

1Putin201235

2008

2011~2012

Putin
Dmitry Medvedev

1. Putin2011924
500Putin
Alisa Ivanitskya and Alexander Chornik, First Signs of
Dissent in Moscow after Putin-Medvedev Announce Top Jobs Swap, Kommersant/
Worldcrunch, September 26, 2011.http://www.worldcrunch.com/rst-signs-dissentmoscow-after-putin-medvedev-announce-top-jobs-swap/world-affairs/first-signs-ofdissent-in-moscow-after-putin-medvedev-announce-top-jobs-swap-/c1s3824/
PutinTime
Leader for Life? How Vladimir Putin
Set Up His Kremlin ComebackSimon Shuster, Leader for
Life? How Vladimir Putin Set Up His Kremlin Comeback, Time, September 26, 2011.
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2094817,00.html
der Spiegel2011926Putin
Good for Putin, Bad for Russia201110
1The EconomistPutinThe
Return of Vladimir Putin-The Once and Future President

85

Putin2011~2012

Putin
2Putin-Medvedev

Putin
problem-driven
electicism

2. Steven Fish2005Democracy Derailed in Russia: The Failure of Open

PoliticsPutin19998
Steven Fish, Democracy
Derailed in Russia: The Failure of Open Politics (Cambridge UK: Cambridge
University Press, 2005).
Anders slund2005
PutinAnders
slund
2005http://carnegieendowment.org/files/RussiaRetreat.pdf
Freedom House20072005
2007
1991Freedom House,
Russia (Washington D.C.: Freedom House, 2007). http://www.freedomhouse.org/
report/countries-crossroads-2007/russia?page=140&edition=8&ccrpage=37&ccrcount
ry=166The Economist2010
20084.4820104.2620113.92
Economist Intelligence Unit, Democracy Index 2010: Democracy in Retreat (London:
The Economist, 2011), p. 12. http://graphics.eiu.com/PDF/Democracy_Index_2010_
web.pdf; Economist Intelligence Unit, Democracy Index 2011: Democracy under
Stress (London: Economist, 2012). http://www.sida.se/Global/About%20Sida/
S%C3%A5%20arbetar%20vi/EIU_Democracy_Index_Dec2011.pdf
Putin2000~20081999~2000, 2008~2012
2012~

86East Asian Studies

20137

3
201112
20123
contentious politics

nonsystemic party

systemic party
Putin-Medvedev

Max Weber
Putin

2011~2012

Putin

Putin
PutinPutin

3. Rudra Sil and Peter Katzenstein

2012185

87

Putin2011~2012

2004
2011

Putin

Putin
Russian Election Studies, RES2008
Putin
72%85%
98%intelligent 4
8Putin

Max WeberPutin
1993

4. Henry E. Hale, The Myth of Mass Russian Support for Autocracy: The Public
Opinion. Foundations of a Hybrid Regime,Europe-Asia Studies, Vol. 63, No. 8
(October 2011), p. 1359.

88East Asian Studies

20137

Shugart and Carry5

presidentialparliamentary system
Putin

6Putin

7
5. Matthew S. Shugart and John M. Carey
2002
6. Thomas S. Remington,Presidents and Parties: Leadership and Institution-Building in
Post-Communist Russia, in Julia Newton and William Thompson eds., Institutions,
Ideas and Leadership in Russian Politics (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2010), p. 36.
7.

92200211
65~842004
3120094151~184
352010
12147~194
2011=60.1%2007=63.71%2003=55.7%53.3%
1999=61.7%61.3%
2012=65.25%2008=69.7%2004=64.3%2000=68.6%2000
59.2%66.96%
20139

89

Putin2011~2012

2001
1~2
3.90
3.53
2002
1~2
4.12
3.48
2003
1~2
3.96
3.38
2004
1
4.11
3.48
2004
7
3.85
3.25
2005
1
3.92
3.22
2005
8
3.91
3.22
2006
2
3.99
3.41
2006
7
4.08
3.30
2007
1
4.25
3.56
2007
7
4.22
3.45
2008
2
4.51
3.84
2009
1
4.11
3.87
2010
1
4.03
3.70
2011
1
4.17
3.78

4.08
3.50
2.97
X=
5=1=

2.81
2.90
2.86
3.01
2.90
2.85
2.80
2.95
2.81
3.07
2.89
3.29
3.18
3.16
3.09
3.07

2.80
2.73
2.91
X
X
3.01
3.08
3.06
3.13
3.25
3.11
3.27
3.29
3.16
3.18
2.71

2.69
2.68
2.60
2.82
2.56
2.61
2.50
2.75
2.55
2.73
2.64
3.04
2.84
2.81
2.81
3.47

3.52
3.57
3.53
3.48
3.40
3.39
3.43
3.49
3.52
3.48
3.53
3.43
3.48
3.32
3.45

Levada Center, Russian Political Opinion 2010-2011, p. 110.http://en.d7154.

agava.net/sites/en.d7154.agava.net/les/Levada2011Eng.pdf

33.32%

Wikipediaelections in Russia

8. Vladimir Shlapentokh, Trust in Public Institutions in Russia: The Lowest in the

90East Asian Studies

20137

59.2%

Yeltsin
YeltsinPutin

Gorbachev
1011
Putin
2000

World,Communist and Post-Communist Studies, Vol. 39, No. 2 (September 2006), pp.
153~174.
9. Thomas S. Remington,Presidents and Parties: Leadership and Institution-Building
in Post-Communist Russia, p. 27, 37; Jevgeni Ossinovski,Legitimacy of Political
Power in Putins Russia,MSc Thesis (London: London School of Economics, 2010).
10.

11. Kenneth Wilson, Political Parties under Putin: Party-System Development and
Democracy, in Julia Newton and William Thompson eds., Institutions, Ideas and
Leadership in Russian Politics (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2010), pp. 137~158.

91

Putin2011~2012

12
state council
Putin
2005PutinPresidential
Council for the Implementation of Priority National Projects

PutinThe Public Chamber13

NGO126

executive office

14commissions16councils32
14
Putin

12. Putun

BBC200418http://news.bbc.co.uk/chinese/
trad/hi/newsid_4020000/newsid_4024000/4024021.stm
13. ShevtsovaPutin

Lilia Shevtsova, Russias Ersatz Democracy,

Current History, Vol. 105, Iss. 693 (October 2006), pp. 307~314
Council for Civil Society and Human Rights
14. http://eng.state.kremlin.ru/
2013929

92East Asian Studies

20137

macho man15Putin
Yeltsin16

Putin
Putin21

199917
20058602003
YUKOS
17Putin

18
2000~2011252%
2000~2008172%19
15. Putin2008
Putin

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin

Showing His Adventurous Nature, Funny Pictures, Jokes and SMS. http://www.
funnypicturesandjokes.com/2012/05/russian-prime-minister-vladimir-putin.html
16. Kethryn Stoner-Weiss, It Is Still Putins Russia, Current History, Vol. 107, Iss. 711 (October
2008), p. 316.
17. Peter Lavelle, What Does Putin Want? Current History, Vol. 103, Iss. 675 (October
2004), pp. 315~317.
18. Gini coefficient

Putin
37.4341.40
http://databank.worldbank.org/data/home.aspx
19. CPI2005=100
2000=502008=1362011=1762012=185200050
201117612

93

Putin2011~2012

Purchasing Power Parity, PPP

Per Capita GDP2000~2008198.04%20
2000~2008

Levada2009
37%
Medvedev
Putin

25%12%Medvedev26%
11%Putin42%52%

Putin2009

Medvedev
PutinPutin

252%2005=1002000=92.7
2011=110.42012=112.62000~20111219.1%

20. PPP
20006,660200819,850198.04%
200025,480200837,550
47.37%20003696.420086734
82.18%
Putin

94East Asian Studies

20137

2008

Medvedev 20
Putin
19

38
X

10
X=

2009

2008
2009

23
17
36
X
18

26
42
25
4
11

11
52
12
2
16

Levada Analytical Center, Russian Public Opinion 2009 (Moscow: Levada

Center, 2010), p. 76.

Putin

21
Weber

22
Putin
power

21.
6120093199~205
22. Max WeberII
2004363

95

Putin2011~2012

vertical 23
Putin2013924
Weber
200810

Putin

Putin

2011~2012

23. William E. Pomeranz, Putins First 100 Days, Woodrow Wilson International Center for
Scholars (Washington D.C.: Kennan Institute of Wilson Center, 2012).
24. Levada20139PutinPutin
47%20012008Putin
77%201260%Medvedev
2013950%Russians Less Positive About Putin Than 5 Years Ago Poll,
RIA Novosti, September 28, 2013.http://en.ria.ru/russia/20130928/183796879.html;
Mark Adonis, Dmitry Medvedevs Approval Rate, Now at An All-Time Low, Has Sharply
Diverged from Vladimir Putins, Forbes, October 1, 2013http://www.forbes.com/sites/
markadomanis/2013/10/01/dmitry-medvedevs-approval-rate-now-at-an-all-time-low-hassharply-diverged-from-vladimir-putins/

96East Asian Studies

20137

Sinikukka Saari2011 25

Saari

26Saari

stagnation1970
Leonid Brezhnev27
2011124

United Russia
50%

121080
12
24
28
20111224
25. Sinikukka Saari, The Persistence of Putins Russia-Why Dont Russians Demand More?
FIIA Brieng Paper 92 (November 2011), p. 6.
26. Levada201122%
20087%The Mood of RussiaTime to Shove Off, The Economist, September 10, 2011.http://www.economist.com/
node/21528596
27. Sinikukka Saari, The Persistence of Putins Russia-Why Dont Russians Demand
More? pp. 2~5.
28. Russian Opposition Parties Unite in Protest, Telegraph, December 4, 2011.http://
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/8977112/Russian-oppositionparties-unite-in-protest.html

97

Putin2011~2012

201224
Bolotnaya Square
16291991
Putin

Putin34
56
PutinPutin

Saari
30

2011.09~2013.09

YY/MM/DD
2011/09/24

Putin
Putin
2011/12/04

2011/12/05

29.
33,000100,000 Protesters at Anti-Putin Rally Say
Organizers, Police Say 33,000, RIA Novosti, February 4, 2012.http://en.rian.ru/
society/20120204/171134854.html
30. Steven Fish, Democracy Derailed in Russia: The Failure of Open Politics; Mikhail
Myagkov, Peter C. Ordeshook and Dimitri Shakin, The Forensics of Election Fraud:
Russia and Ukraine (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2009), Ch. 1 and Ch. 3.

98East Asian Studies

2011/12/06
2011/12/10

2011/12/17
2011/12/18
2011/12/22
2011/12/24

2012/01/17
2012/02/04
2012/03/04
2012/03/04~
2012/04/14
2012/04/03
2012/04/08
2013/04/25
2012/05/06~07
2012/05/08
2012/06/08
2012/06/12
2012/10/14

2012/12/15

20137

Putin
25,000~50,000
St. Petersburg
Novosibirsk3,000Yekaterinburg4,000

Bolotnaya Square
1,500~5,000
Manezhnaya Square

Medvedev

Academician Sakharov Avenue

Nizhny NovgorodChelyabinsk
OrenburgVladivostok

Michael McFaul
38,00016

201234Astrakhan
Oleg
V. Shein40
Medvedev

Medvedev2011

PutinPutin

PutinMedvedev
Putin68
30100
612
Putin
Putin
GOLOS

Lubyanka Square

99

Putin2011~2012

2012/12/28
2013/01/13
2013/02/09

2013/05/06

2013/06/13
2013/06/14

2013/09/08

2013/09/19

PutinAnti-Magnitsky
Law
Putin

The Left FrontSergei Udaltsov2012

529
864~10

20,000
Alexei NavalnyBoris Nemtsov

7052
9
Alexei Navalny
RPR-PARNASMikhail
Prokhorov
gubernational
33.32%Putin
Sergey Sobyanin51.34%
Alexei Navalny27.24%
10.69%
Putin2018

100East Asian Studies

20137

31Sharon Wolchik322011~2012

Putin
Natalia Sorkaya33

Andrew Jarrell

34Dmitry Oreshkin
35

31. The EconomistProtest in Russia- A Russian Awakening

1990Euronews

Russian Election: Middle Class Call for Change

NPRAt the Core
Of Russias Protests: The Middle ClassProtest in Russia- A Russian
Awakening, The Economist, December 1, 2012.http://www.economist.com/blogs/
easternapproaches/2011/12/protest-russia-0; Special Report Russian Election:
Middle Class Call for Change, Euronews, February 16, 2012.http://www.euronews.
com/2012/02/16/russian-election-middle-class-call-for-change/; At the Core of
Russias Protests: The Middle Class, NPR, December 12, 2011.http://www.npr.
org/2011/12/12/143595472/the-core-of-the-russian-protests-the-middle-class
32. Sharon L. Wolchik,Can There Be a Color Revolution?Journal of Democracy, Vol. 23,
No. 3 (July 2012), p. 67.
33. Has Russias Protest Movement Lost Its Steam? Deutsche Welle, March 12, 2012.
http://www.dw.de/has-russias-protest-movement-lost-its-steam/a-16425009
34. Andrew Jarrell, Local Democracy in Russia: An Antidote for an Aimless Protest
Movement, Russian Analytical Digest, No. 118 (October 2012), p. 8
35. Dmitry Oreshkin, Russian Riot: Senseless and Ruthless or Legal Protest? Russian Analytical

101

Putin2011~2012

Anna Nemtsova6,600
36Mark AdomanisNemtsova

315~845
47.8%

37
Olga KamentchukAdomanis

38

Denis
Volkov2012218~24
55
39
Digest, No. 118 (October 2012), pp. 4~7.
36. Anna Nemtsova, In Putins Russia, the Walls Still Have Ears, The Daily Beast, July 8, 2012.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/07/08/in-putin-s-russia-the-walls-still-haveears.html
37. Mark Adomanis,What is the Russian Middle Class? Probably Not What
You Think, Forbes, September 10, 2012. http://www.forbes.com/sites/
markadomanis/2012/09/10/what-is-the-russian-middle-class-probably-not-what-youthink/
38. Has Russias Protest Movement Lost Its Steam? Deutsche Welle, March 12, 2012.
39. Denis Volkov, The Protesters and the Public, Journal of Democracy, Vol. 23, No. 3 (July
2012), pp. 55~62.

102East Asian Studies

20137

categorization
Barrington Moore Jr.
Samuel P. Huntington

40Krastev and Holmes

41
Huntington
42

43

VolkovLevada44

40. Lilia Shevtsova, Implosion, Atrophy, or Revolution? Journal of Democracy, Vol. 23,
No. 3 (July 2012), pp.19~32.
41. Ivan Krastev and Stephen Holmes, An Autopsy of Managed Democracy, Journal of
Democracy, Vol. 23, No. 3 (July 2012), pp. 33~45.
42. Samuel P. Huntington
1985
43.

44. Denis Volkov, The Protesters and the Public, p. 57.

103

Putin2011~2012

60%~70%

73%
52%Medvedev
42%
15%13%

Putin
Putin

45
%

Medvedev

73
73
52
42
15
13
10
6

Levada20121224
7914.8%

http://www.levada.ru/26-12-2011/opros-na-prospekte-sakharova-24-dekabrya
The Opinion of the Protesters, Russian
Analytical Digest, No. 108 (February 2012), p. 14.

45. Levada201146%
Alexey Navalny93%Levada Center, : 6%,6%Alexey
Navalny June 5, 2011.http://www.levada.ru/06-05-2011/alekseya-navalnogo-znayut-6rossiyan

104East Asian Studies

20137

80%
30%
2/3
0.86
70%
45%30%17~18%15~18%
13%81%
70%welloff1/41/2
97%
Vladimir Churov
39%85%
35%95%
29%89%
Putin
24%

105

Putin2011~2012

80%
2/3
70%1/2

30%
0.86 *
1/4

70%
17~18%

Vladimir Churov

Putin

97%

39%

85%

35%

95%

29%

89%

24%

13%
81%

*2009
Denis Volkov, The Protesters and the Public, p. 57.

VCIOM201224
800 46
82%12417%
60.1%47
37%

18%8%5%
3%

46. VCIOM YablokoGrigory Yavlinsky

47. VCIOM (Russian Public opinion Research Center), Rally on Bilotnaya Square on
February, 4: Results of Opinion Poll, VCIOM Press Release, No. 1415 (February
2012). http://wciom.com/index.php?id=61&uid=639

106East Asian Studies

20137

50%
17.27%

201234

Right Cause
Mikhail Prokhorov27%Gennady
Zyuganov15%
Vladimir Zhirinovsky13%
Sergey Mironov11%Vladimir Putin
3%
Mikhail Prokhorov

48
Maria Lipman

Volkov
ofce plankton
48.

107

Putin2011~2012

49

John McCain
50Slavic Spring
Occupy the KremlinWhite
RevolutionPutin-Medvedev

Boris Nemtsov 51

52
Ilya Ponomarev
49. Lipman VilkovJulia Pettengill, The Russian Opposition: A Survey of Groups,
Individuals, Strategies and Prospects (London: Henry Jackson Society, 2012), p. 2.
50. McCain2011125TwitterVlad
PutinVladimirDear Vlad, the Arab Spring is
Coming to a Neighborhood Near YouMcCainhttps://twitter.com/
SenJohnMcCain/status/143689929975799809; McCain Warns Putin of Approaching Arab
Spring, RIA Novosti, December 6, 2011.http://en.rian.ru/russia/20111206/169389247.
html
51. Boris Nemtsov1997~19981999
Rightist Forces Union
PutinPutin
PutinAnatony Chubais
20034%
5%2011126
Nemtsov15
52. Olivia Ward, Russias Boris Nemtsov: From Boy Governorto Opposition
Grandfather, The Star, February 12, 2012.http://www.thestar.com/news/
world/article/1129334russia-s-boris-nemtsov-from-boygovernor-to-oppositiongrandfather?bn=1Levada20111217%
45%Russians
Expect Protests, Political Upheavals but no Coup in 2012, RIA Novosti, January 3, 2012.
http://en.ria.ru/russia/20120103/170606581.html

108East Asian Studies

20137

Lipman
Tahrir Square
Levada201112
17%

2011124
%

/
Yabloko
LDPR

CPRF

A Just Russia
Right Cause
United Russia

Patriots of Russia

Hard to tell

37
18

3.43
11.67

18

19.19

8
5
3

13.24
0.60
49.32

0.97

5
3
1
101

-1.57
-99.99

VCIOM

1.VCIOM201224
800VCIOM (Russian
Publicopinion Research Center), Rally on Bilotnaya Square on February, 4:
Results of Opinion Poll,.
2.20111260.1%59.2%
0.9%The Duma Election- 2011, Russia Votes.http://
www.russiavotes.org/duma/duma_today.php

109

Putin2011~2012

201234
%

Mikhail Prokhorov

Gennady Zyuganov

Vladimir Zhirinovsky

Sergey Mironov

Vladimir Putin

VCIOM

27

7.98

15

17.18

13

6.22

11

3.85

63.60

12
13
7
101

-1.17
-100.00

1.VCIOMVCIOM (Russian Public opinion Research Center),

Rally on Bilotnaya Square on February, 4: Results of Opinion Poll,.
2. Presidential Election Result, Russia
Votes.http://www.russiavotes.org/president/presidency_result.php

Putin
Krastev and Holmes53Lilia
Shevtsovaimitation democracyAndrew
Wilsonvirtual democracyGraeme
Robertsonpseudo democracyVitali Silitski

2000Putin

53. Ivan Krastev and Stephen Holmes, An Autopsy of Managed Democracy, p. 35.

110East Asian Studies

20137

liberal
democracymanaged
democracy54sovereign democracy55

regular elections

Putin2000
54. Nikolai PetrovPutin1.

2.
3.
legitimizingNikolai Petrov,
From Managed Democracy to Sovereign Democracy- Putins Regime Evolution in
2005, PONARS Policy Memo, No. 396 (December 2005), pp. 181~185.
55. Vladislav SurkovPutin200627
The Nationalization of
the Future
Surkov

Andrei Okara, Sovereign Democracy: A New Russian Idea or a PR Project? Russia in

Global Affairs, Vol. 5, No. 3 (July-September 2007), pp. 8~20Ivan Krestav

Ivan Krastev, Paradoxes of the New

Authoritarianism, Journal of Democracy, Vol. 22, No. 2 (April 2011), pp. 5~16
Yeltsin

199~205

111

Putin2011~2012

electoral
authoritarianism

Putin
Putin21

56
Putin2000

Putin
2001
10,00050
100

3%
2005

56. Andreas Schedler, The Logic of Electoral Authoritarianism,

in Andreas Schedler ed., Electoral Authoritarianism: The Dynamics of Unfree Competition
(Boulder: Lynne Rienner Publishers. 2006), pp. 2~6.

112East Asian Studies

20137

50,000
45500
2004~2008467
572003
12 20072011
4Putin2001

58

59
2011Putin

Putin
A Just RussiaCommunist Party of the
Russian Federation

57. Gregorii Golosov, Join the Party! Open Democracy Russia, May 22, 2013. http://www.
opendemocracy.net/od-russia/grigorii-golosov/join-party
58. Kenneth Wilson, Party-System Development under Putin, Post-Soviet Affairs, Vol.
22, No. 4 (October-December 2006), pp. 314~348.
59. Vladimir Gelman, The Regime, the Opposition, and Challenges to Electoral
Authoritarianism in Russia, Russian Analytical Digest, No. 118 (October 2012), pp.
2~4.

113

Putin2011~2012

2011~2012
2011201112
22
Medvedev

41
2012

Medvedev
PutinMedvedev

Putin-Medvedev

Liberal
Democratic PartyYabloko2011
20135

Gennadii
Zyuganov

114East Asian Studies

20137

PARNAS60201112

61

62201112

Sverdlovsk128
12
10Yekaterinburg63
Putin64

Zyuganov
Putin-Medvedev

2011

60. Laura Petrone, The Russian Opposition and the 2011 Duma Elections- Potential and
Problems of a Multifaceted Movement, ISPI Policy Brief, No. 215 (March 2012), pp.
4~5.
61. European Parliament Approves Resolution against Russian Duma Elections, Gazeta. Ru
(english), December 14, 2011.http://en.gazeta.ru/news/2011/12/14/a_3927870.shtml
62. McCain2011125Twitter
VladPutinVladimirDear Vlad,
the Arab Spring is Coming to a Neighborhood Near YouMCain
https://twitter.com/SenJohnMcCain/status/143689929975799809; McCain
Warns Putin of Approaching Arab Spring, RIA Novosti, December 6, 2011.http://
en.rian.ru/russia/20111206/169389247.html
63.
64. 20123Sverdlovsk51.5%Putin2012
64%Zyuganov 12.2% Prokhorov11.7%
Putin

115

Putin2011~2012

Sergei Mironov
20133Dmitry Gudkov
65
Putin

2011
Igor Lebedev
Vladimir Zhirinovsky66201112
242,000
Pushkinskaya Square
Zhirinovsky

2011121,500
~5,000
6720135Sergey Mitrokhin

65. Dmitry Gudkov

Gennadiy Gudkov2012Oleg
SheinIlya PonomaryovA Just Russia Party Expels
Oppositionists Hoping to Mend Relations with Authorities, ITAR TASS, March 14,
2013.http://pda.itar-tass.com/en/c39/676091.html; Opposition Party Expels
Two Senior Members for Siding with Street Protesters, RT, March 14, 2013.http://
rt.com/politics/opposition-party-expels-two-senior-members-for-siding-with-streetprotesters-245/
66. Party Leaders Outline Immediate Plans as Polling Stations Close, RT, December 4,
2011.http://rt.com/politics/leaders-russian-speak-plans-019/
67. Police Estimate 1500 Participants in Yabloko Protest, ITAR TASS, December 17,
2011. http://pda.itar-tass.com/en/c/300138.html

116East Asian Studies

20137

Putin68
20129The March
of MillionsSergey Mitrokhin
69

Putin2012
5

250%Medvedev
70Putin
Alexei OstrovskySmolensk Oblast
Konstantin Ilkovsky
Zabaykalsky KraiNikolai Vinogradov
2009MedvedevVladimir
Oblast71
68. Russian Opposition Eyes Anti-Putin Protest Resurgence, RT, May 6, 2013.http://
rt.com/news/bolotnaya-opposition-rally-protest-879/
69. Russias Yabloko Cannot Accept Leftist Dominance in Protest Movement Leader,
Interfax, September 18, 2012. Interfaxhttp://
www.accessmylibrary.com/article-1G1-302882384/russia-yabloko-cannot-accept.html
70. Medvedev2008115

Dmitry A. Medvedev, Address to the Federal Assembly of the Russian

Federation, President of Russia, November 5, 2008.http://archive.kremlin.ru/eng/
speeches/2008/11/05/2144_type70029type82917type127286_208836.shtml
71. Vladimir Ryzhkov, Putins Vertical Duma, The Moscow Times, Iss. 5091, March
20, 2013. http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/putins-vertical-

117

Putin2011~2012

20133

Igor Lebedev100
Andrei Filatov
Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug
72
Putin20133Orlova Svetlana
YuryevnaNikolai
Vinogradov73

Putin

duma/477147.html
72. Russian Press - Behind the Headlines, March 18, RIA Novosti, March 18, 2013.
http://en.ria.ru/papers/20130318/180089297/Russian-Press---Behind-the-HeadlinesMarch-18.html
73. Putin Appoints Svetlava Orlova Acting Head of Vladimir Region, ITAR TASS, March
25, 2013.http://pda.itar-tass.com/en/c/686080.html

118East Asian Studies

20137

Robert Dahl
Dahl

74
Dahl

75
Dahlcivil society

John KeaneAlexis de
Tocqueville

74. Robert A. Dahl

2006
75. Robert A. Dahl
1989

119

Putin2011~2012

tautology

76

Danielle Lussier
hybrid regime

77
76.
42200764
77. Danielle N. Lussier, Russias (Un)Civil Society: Authoritarianism by the People,
paper presented at 106th Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association
(Washington D.C.: September 2~5, 2010), pp. 5~8.

120East Asian Studies

20137

LussierWorld Value Survey

1990

29.6%33.0%
19992006
8.2%15.4%
%

1990

1995

1999

2006

29.6
33.0
4.4
0.8
34.5

10.8
21.1
2.3
0.5
12.4

11.7
23.9
2.5
0.7
13.6

8.2
15.4
2.4
-9.7**

* 2006**
Danielle N. Lussier, Russias (Un)Civil
Society: Authoritarianism by the People, p. 11.

Lussier and Fishsociability

index78

78. Lussier Fish1999~2004World Value Survey

sociability
(1)(2)(3)(4)
0
10~1

121

Putin2011~2012

sense of political efficacy

79Dahl

institutional trust

Pew

57%
32%
75%
19%80Putin
640.490.79
0.30Danielle N. Lussier and
Steven Fish, Indonesia: The Benets of Civic Engagement, Journal of Democracy,
Vol. 23, No. 1 (January 2012), pp. 70~84.
79. Levada
2008720107
87%84%
8%10%Levada
Center, ,
?Levada Center, September
8, 2011. http://www.levada.ru/archive/gosudarstvo-i-obshchestvo/politicheskoeuchastie/kak-vy-schitaete-vy-mozhete-povliyat-na-pol
80. Pew Research Center, Russians Back Protests, Political Freedoms and Putin, Too
(Washington D.C.: Pew Research Center, 2012), p. 2

122East Asian Studies

20137

Medvedev72%67%
Gennady A. Zyuganov39%Mikhail D. Prokhorov
Sergey M. Mironov36%Putin

81

Putin
Putin
managed democracy
sovereign democracy

Lussier

Putinapproval rate
64% 82
81. Pew Research Center, Russians Back Protests, Political Freedoms and Putin, Too, p. 22.
82. Putin70%
80% 20135LevadaPutin
64%May Poll Puts Russian Presidents Job Approval
Rating at 64 Percent, Interfax, June 1, 2013. http://rbth.ru/news/2013/05/30/may_poll_
puts_russian_presidents_job_approval_rating_at_64_percent_26544.html

123

Putin2011~2012

Putin63.6%2012
5
foreign agent

nationalidentity

20
1991

1991

Martha Finnemore
national interest
83
84

83. Martha Finnemore

2001
84. Martha Finnemore

124East Asian Studies

20137

85
86
realizationexistence

materialism

hegemonic discourse87

88layered

85. Putnamtwo-level game

Robert,Putnam, Diplomacy and Domestic Politics:

The Logic of Two-Level Games, International Organization, Vol. 42, No. 3 (Summer 1988),
pp. 427~460.
86.

Rawi Abdelal, Mark

Blyth and Craig Parsons, Introduction, in Rawi Abdelal, Mark Blyth and Craig Parsons
eds., Constructing the International Economy (Ithaca and London: Cornell University Press,
2010), pp. 1~19; Craig Parsons, How to Map Arguments in Political Science (Oxford: Oxford
University Press, 2007).
87. Jutta Weldes, Constructing National Interests, European Journal of International
Relations, Vol. 2, No. 3 (September 1996), pp. 275~318.
88. Ernest Renan

125

Putin2011~2012

89

90

2012276Harald
Welzer

Harald Welzer
Harald Welzer
2007107~108
89. Mikhail A. Molchanov, Political Culture and National Identity in Russian-Ukrainian
Relations (College Station: A&M University Press, 2002), p.14.
90.
Nicholas G. Onuf, The World of Our Making: Rule and Rules
in Social Theory and International Relations(Columbia, SC: University of South Carolina
Press, 1989)Alexander Wendt
2001Ted Hopf, Social Construction of Foreign Policy: Identities and Foreign
Policies, Moscow, 1955 and 1999 (Ithaca and London: Cornell University Press, 2002), Ch. 1.

126East Asian Studies

20137

Andrei TsygankovAnne L. Clunan91

Peter the Great, 1672~1725Putin
Tsygankov
92

Clunan

93TsygankovClunan

91. Anne L. Clunan, The Social Construction of Russias Resurgence: Aspirations, Identity, and
Security Interests (Baltimore: The John Hopkins University Press, 2009); Andrei P. Tsygankov,
Russias Foreign Policy-Change and Continuity in National Identity (Lanham: Rowman &
Littleeld, 2008).
92. Andrei P. Tsygankov, Russias Foreign Policy-Change and Continuity in National Identity, pp.
16~17.
93. ClunanAspirational Constructivism
Anne
L. Clunan, The Social Construction of Russias Resurgence: Aspirations, Identity, and Security
Interests, Ch. 2.

127

Putin2011~2012

Andrei P. Tsygankov, Russias Foreign Policy-Change and Continuity in

National Identity, p. 17.

96%

Tsygankov

87%

school
of thought

Ts y g a n k o v C l u n a n

We s t e r n i s m

0.2%

StatismEuro-asianism
3%

Civilizationism94

94. ClunanTsygankov
Anne L. Clunan, The Social Construction of Russias
Resurgence: Aspirations, Identity, and Security Interests, Ch. 3; Andrei P. Tsygankov,
Russias Foreign Policy-Change and Continuity in National Identity, Ch. 1; Andrei
P. Tsygankov and Pavel A. Tsygankov, National Ideology and IR Theory: Three
Incarnations of the Russia Idea, European Journal of International Relations, Vol. 16,
No. 4 (December 2010), pp. 663~686.

128East Asian Studies

20137

17

the signicant OtherMikhail Gorbachev1985

YeltsinGorbachev
YeltsinGorbachev

Joseph Stalin

Putin

2001
911Al-Qaeda
Putin

Putin
PutinAngela

129

Putin2011~2012

Merkel

20107
The Customs Union of Belarus,
Kazakhstan, and Russia20121
Common Economic Space95

96

Yeltsin

Clunan

95. 2015Eurasian Economic Union

Belarus Joins Russia and Kazakhstan
Customs Union, BBC, July 5, 2010.http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10507601;
Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan are Launching Common Economic Space, RIA Novosti,
January 1, 2012.http://en.ria.ru/russia/20120101/170583110.html
96. Andrei P. and Pavel A. Tsygankov, National Ideology and IR Theory: Three
Incarnations of the Russia Idea, pp. 668~670.

130East Asian Studies

20137

Yeltsin
Yeltsin
Andrei V. KozyrevYevgeny Primakov
Primakov
PutinPrimakov
YeltsinPrimakov
Putin

Putin

Yeltsin
little Russia

PrimakovPutinbig
Russia

Yeltsin

131

Putin2011~2012

2011~2012Putin-Medvedev

97Barbara Geddes98

Putin
Geddes

Geddes
resilience
99
Geddes1999
a prior
Geddes
100

97. Dmitry Oreshkin, Russian Riot: Senseless and Ruthless or Legal Protest? pp. 4~7.
98. Barbara Geddes, What Do We Know about Democratization after Twenty Years?
Annual Review of Political Science, Vol. 2 (June 1999), pp. 115~144
99. Barbara Geddes, What Do We Know about Democratization after Twenty Years? p.
135.
100.1998

132East Asian Studies

20137

1012011~2012

Sharon WolchikValerie Bunceelectoral

model

102

103

101.Charles Tilly and Sidney TarrowContentious Politics

Charles Tilly and Sidney

Tarrow20109
102.Valerie J. Bunce and Sharon L. Wolchik, Defeating Dictators: Electoral Change and
Stability in Competitive Authoritarian Regimes, World Politics, Vol. 62, No. 1 (January
2010), pp. 43~86.
103. Sharon L. Wolchik, Can There Be a Color Revolution? p. 64.

133

Putin2011~2012

parallel vote
counts

Putin-Medvedev
2011
20122007~2009

104Tomila Lankina Alexey Savraso

2007~2009

Volga-Urals
Primorskiy Kray105

104.Kadri Liik,Regime Change in Russia,European Council on Foreign Relations Policy

Memo, May 31, 2013, p. 3.
105.Tomila Lankina and Alexey Savrasov, Growing Social Protest in Russia, Russian
Analytical Digest, No. 60 (May 2009), pp. 6~12.

134East Asian Studies

20137

2011~2012

2009
2011~2012
106

Wolchik2011~2012

1071980~1990

Putin

106.Kadri Liik, Regime Change in Russia, p. 3; Sharon L. Wolchik, Can There Be a

Color Revolution? p. 64; Tomila Lankina and Alexey Savrasov, Growing Social
Protest in Russia, pp. 6~12.
107.Sharon L. Wolchik, Can There Be a Color Revolution? p. 67.

135

Putin2011~2012

orange
plagueorange infections
108
Putin20127
PutinForeign Agents
LawLevada

3%
foreign agent

NGO
Putin20132
NGO
109Putin

110

108.Vladimir Kara-Murza, Putins Soviet Response to Renewed Protests in Russia,

World Affairs Journal, February 9, 2012.http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/
blog/vladimir-kara-murza/putins-soviet-response-renewed-protests-russia; Lilia
Shevtsova, Implosion, Atrophy, or Revolution? p. 25.
109.Will Russia Play Tough with Its Foreign Agent Law? The Economists, May 28, 2013.
http://www.economist.com/blogs/easternapproaches/2013/03/russian-politics
110.USAID5,000
Russia Slams U.S. Agency for Political Aid Agenda, The Wall Street Journal, September
19 2012. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000087239639044389030457800633210104952
0.html

136East Asian Studies

20137

20112004
111

Leonid Kuchma
1994~2005
2004
KuchmaParty of Regions
Viktor Yanukovych
Our Ukraine-Peoples-Self-Defense BlocViktor
Yushchenko
20041122Yushchenko

123
1121
1226Yushchenko
YushchenkoYanukovych
39.90%39.26%

Yanukovych

111.Andrei Yakovlev, Russias Protest Movement and the Lessons of History, Russian
Analytical Digest, No. 108 (February 2012), pp. 6~9; Adrian Karatnycky, Ukraines
Orange Revolution, Foreign Affairs, March/April, 2005, pp. 35~52.

137

Putin2011~2012

Yushchenko

2001 112
Duma
2007
64.30%11.57%
8.14%450
3152011

30%
PutinMedvedev
45%

Putinhegemony

International Foundation for Electoral Systems, IFES

66%
26%77%
11320022010

112. Fatherland-All Russia

Unity Party of Russia20014
113. Rakesh Sharma, Public Opinion in Ukraine 2002, IFES Publication, February 1,
2003, p. 27.

138East Asian Studies

20137

2000Bulldozer
RevolutionSlobodan Miloevi
18
Democratic Opposition of Serbia
2003
United National Movement

Eduard Shevardnadze2005

Askar Akayev

PutinMilov

Lipman

114

114.Julia Pettengill, The Russian Opposition: A Survey of Groups, Individuals, Strategies and
Prospects, p. 55.

139

Putin2011~2012

V. Yushchenko
V. Yanukovych

31/10/2004
39.90
39.26

21/11/2004
46.61
49.46

26/12/2004
51.99
44.20

Ukraine Presidential Election, 2014, Wikipedia. http://en.wikipedia.org/

wiki/Ukrainian_presidential_election,_2004

Duma2007~2011

2007
%
64.30
315
11.57
57
8.14
40
7.74
38
1.59
0
6.66
0
100.00
450

%
49.32
19.19
11.67
13.24
3.43
3.15
100.00

2011

238
92
56
64
0
0
450

Russian Legislative Election, 2007, 2011, Wikipedia.http://en.wikipedia.

org/wiki/Russian_legislative_election,_2011http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/
Russian_legislative_election,_2007

2000~2012
2000
2004
2008
2012

Vladimir Putin53.4%

Vladimir Putin71.9%

Dmitry Medvedev71.2%

Vladimir Putin63.4%

Gennady Zyuganov29.5%
Nikolay Kharitonov13.8%
Gennady Zyuganov18.0%
Gennady Zyuganov17.1%

2000

140East Asian Studies

20137

Russian Presidential Election, 2000~2012, Wikipedia.http://en.wikipedia.

org/wiki/Russian_presidential_election,_2000
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_presidential_
election,_2004http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_
presidential_election,_2008http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_
presidential_election,_2012

2011
2011~2012

Huntington

snowball effect

Putin2000115

2004~2005

201012
Putin-Medvedev

Karrie Koesel and Valerie Bunce116Putin

115.Yeltsin19991231Putin20001157

116.Karrie Koesel and Valerie Bunce, Diffusion-Proong: Russian and Chinese Responses
to Waves of Popular Mobilizations against Authoritarian Rulers, Perspective on

141

Putin2011~2012

Putin
regional hegemon117Yeltsin
1990

Putinframing

Putin
2005 118
3%6%

16~2972%
119
Levada201112040%

2011~2012
Politics, Vol. 11, No. 3 (September 2013), pp. 753~768.
117.national identity
118.2005Public Opinion
Foundation, Cvetnye revoljucii v stranah SNG, (Color Revolutions in the CIS)
July,2005.http://bd.fom.ru/report/cat/polit/col_revKarrie Koesel and
Valerie Bunce, Diffusion-Proofing: Russian and Chinese Responses to Waves of
Popular Mobilizations against Authoritarian Rulers, 27
119.Sarah Mendelson and T. Gerber, Local Activist Culture and
Transnational Diffusion: An Experimentin Social Marketing among Human Rights
Groups in Russia, Unpublished manuscript, 2005. Karrie Koesel and Valerie
Bunce, Diffusion-Proofing: Russian and Chinese Responses to Waves of Popular
Mobilizations against Authoritarian Rulers, 28
120.Karrie Koesel and Valerie Bunce, Diffusion-Proong: Russian and Chinese
Responses to Waves of Popular Mobilizations against Authoritarian Rulers, 73

142East Asian Studies

20137

2005~2011
2011

social media

Putin-Medvedev

121122

Medvedev
123Federal Security Service,
FSB
124201112

125Medvedev
125.
PutinPutin-Medvedev
Birgitte Hopstad, The Russian Media under Putin
and Medvedev: Controlled Media in an Authoritarian System, (Master dissertation,
Norwegian University of Science and Technology, 2011).
122.
Anna Politkovskaya2006
Anastasia BaburovaStanislav Markelov2009
Natalya Estemirova2009
Aleksei Sokolov2009520117
123.Medvedev Vows not to Restrict Internet, RIA Novosti, April 29, 2011.http://en.rian.
ru/russia/20110429/163776636.html
124.Russian Security Council Chief Wants Web Regulation, Reuters, December
14, 2011. http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/14/us-russia-internetidUSTRE7BD0LZ20111214
125.Markku Lonkila, Russian Protest On-and Offline- the Role of Social Media in

143

Putin2011~2012

Nadia Diuk
342003
18.4%201060.5%

126
127

Facebook200692613

128

Moscow Opposition Demonstration in December 2011, FIIA Brieng Paper, No. 98

(February 2012), p. 5; Karrie Koesel and Valerie Bunce, Diffusion-Proong: Russian
and Chinese to Waves of Popular Mobilizations against Authoritarian Rulers, p. 759.
Hopstad 2010
Birgitte Hopstad,
The Russian Media under Putin and Medvedev: Controlled Media in an Authoritarian
System, pp. 74~75.
126.Vladimir Kara-Murza, What Are They Thinking? A Study of Youth in Three PostSoviet States, World Affairs Journal, November/December, 2012. http://www.
worldaffairsjournal.org/article/what-are-they-thinking-study-youth-three-post-sovietstates
127.

gatekeeper

Werner J. Severin and James

W. Tankard Jr.
1992
128.Dave Morin2008825Twitter

144East Asian Studies

20137

LiveJournal
2001
129

online
offline
2010
201112
Sergey Dolya
100
20020106
http://
russianres.ru/
130
Alexei Navalny201212
RosPil.net

Dave Morin, We Just Hit 100,000,000 Facebook Users!!!

Twitter, August 25, 2008. https://twitter.com/davemorin/statuses/898779449
20066Twitter20125
129.Oleg KashinLiveJournal
LiveJournal: Russias Unlikely Internet Giant, BBC, January 3, 2012.http://
www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-171770532006
ClassmateOdonklassnikiVkontakte
20102011Youtube
2005Karina Alexanyan, The Map and The Territory: Russian Social
Media Networks and Society, (Ph.D. dissertation, Columbia University, 2013), pp. 40~41.
130.Karina Alexanyan, The Map and The Territory: Russian Social Media Networks and
Society, pp. 202, 204~205.

145

Putin2011~2012

131Navalny
Evgeny Fedorov20112
Youtube60Navalny
10
Putin-Medvdev
132
2011~2012
20119PutinMedvedev

12

201255,00012
24

2011~2012
133

131.Karina Alexanyan, The Map and The Territory: Russian Social Media Networks and
Society, pp. 203~204.
132.Markku Lonkila, Russian Protest On-and Offline- the Role of Social Media in
Moscow Opposition Demonstration in December 2011, p. 5.
133.GOLOS

146East Asian Studies

20137

liberal democracy
2011~2012
Putin

VS.
Pew

2011~2012
3%

75%2012

Levada

35%
19% 134
61%25%135
134.10%17%
2012
201013%201219%Levada
Analytical Center, Russian Public Opinion 2010~2011 (Moscow: Levada Center, 2012),
p. 28.
135.Levada201110200912

147

Putin2011~2012

23%
44%

%
2009

29
60
11

14
78
7

2011
32
57
11

2009

2012
32
57
11

2011
21
74
6

2012
19
75
7

Pew Research Center, Russians Back Protests, Political Freedoms and Putin,
Too, p. 2.

%
2009.12

2010.07

2011.06

23
14
43

23
16
45

23
17
44

7
13

7
10

7
10

Pew Research Center, Russians Back Protests, Political Freedoms and Putin,
Too, p. 28.

57%23%Levada
Analytical Center, Russian Public Opinion 2010~2011, p. 28.

148East Asian Studies

20137

managed democracy
sovereign democracyelectoral
democracydelegative democracy

2011~2012

McAllister and White20081~2136

200762.3%
18.5%

WilsonMcAllister and White137

(1)
136.Ian McAllister and Stephen White, Its the Economy, Comrade! Parties and Voters in
the 2007 Russian Duma Election, Europe-Asia Studies, Vol. 60, No. 6 (August 2008),
pp. 931~957.
137.Kenneth Wilson, How Russians View Electoral Fairness: A Qualitative Analysis,
Europe-Asia Studies, Vol. 64, No. 1 (January 2012), pp. 145~168.

149

Putin2011~2012

(2)
(3)

138

2011124
Levada
45%25%
45%139

Putin
2008140
37.4%
12.9%9.7%7.7%
138.Organization for Security and
Cooperation in Europe, OSCEThe Parliamentary Assembly
of the Council of Europe, PACE
PACE2011

Youtube
OSCE2011OSCE/ODIHR,
Election Observation Mission-Final Report, OSCE/ODIHR, January 12, 2012.
http://www.osce.org/odihr/86959PACEPACE, Observation of the
Parliamentary Elections in the Russian Federation, Parliamentary Assembly Assemble
parlementaire, January 23, 2012. http://assembly.coe.int/ASP/Doc/XrefViewHTML.
asp?FileID=12924&Language=en
139.Russians Split on Feelings about Election Corruption, Gazeta. Ru (english),
December 29, 2011.http://en.gazeta.ru/news/2011/12/29/a_3952653.shtml
140.RES 2008

Henry E. Hale, The Myth of Mass Russian

Support for Autocracy: The Public Opinion Foundations of a Hybrid Regime, pp.
1359~1360.

150East Asian Studies

20137

5.2%
5.2%

HaleRES 200889%

74.3%141

142

143ODonnell
144
201112420124

HaleRES 2012145
2008
141.HaleRES 2008
74.33%
89%X96%X87%=74.33%
142.Yury LevadaHomo
Praevaricatus: Russian Doublethinkin Archie Brown ed., Contemporary Russian
Politics: A Reader (New York: Oxford University Press, 2001).
143.Henry E. Hale, The Myth of Mass Russian Support for Autocracy: The Public Opinion
Foundations of a Hybrid Regime, p. 1371.
144.

Guillermo A. ODonnell, Delegative Democracy,

Journal of Democracy, Vol. 5, No. 1 (January 1994), pp. 55~69.
145.RES 2012201112201232012
4~5Henry E. Hale, Trends in Russian Views on Democracy 200812: Has There Been a Russian Democratic Awakening? Russian Analytical Digest, No.
117 (September 2012), pp. 9~11.

151

Putin2011~2012

96%

87%

0.2%

3%

Henry E. Hale, The Myth of Mass Russian Support for Autocracy: The Public
Opinion Foundations of a Hybrid Regime, p. 1369.

Hale

35%

2011
Putin
Putin
23%
25%2011
21%
2011

20%~25%Pippa Norris

152East Asian Studies

20137

critical citizens146

Putin

Putin

2011~2012
Putin

Putin

Putin
Putin
Putin

146.Norrisdissatisfied
democrats
18~19

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