2009 South-Western, a part of Cengage Learning, all rights reserved

C H A P T E R
H thng tin t
Economics
P R I N C I P L E S O F
N. Gregory Mankiw
PowerPoint Slides
by Nguyen Thi Hien FTU galaxyftu@yahoo.com
7
Trong chng ny, chng ta s tm li
p cho cc vn sau:
Nhng ti sn no th c coi l tin? Tin c
nhng chc nng no? Cc dng ca tin?
Cc d tr lin bang Federal Reserve/ ngn hng
nh nc l g?
Vai tr ca cc ngn hng trong h thng tin t?
Cc ngn hng to ra tin ntn?
NHTW kim sot lng cung tin ntn?
1
THE MONETARY SYSTEM
2
Tin l g v ti sao n li quan trng
Nu khng c tin t, thng mi din ra da trn
trao i barter, i HHDV ny ly HHDV khc.
Mi mt giao dch khi i hi phi c s trng
kht v nhu cu (double coincidence of wants)
l vic ngi ny c hng m ngi kia cn v
ngi kia cng c hng m ngi ny cn.
Phn ln mi ngi s phi tiu tn rt nhiu thi
gian tm i tc ca mnh trao i mt s
lng ph rt ln v ngun lc.
Vic tm kim ny s tr nn khng cn thit na
khi c tin t (money), mt nhm cc ti sn m
mi ngi s dng chung mua HH-DV.
THE MONETARY SYSTEM
3
3 chc nng ca tin
Phng tin trao i Medium of exchange: l
th m ngi mua tr cho ngi bn khi h
mun mua HH-DV
n v hch ton Unit of account: l thc o
nim yt gi v ghi chp cc khon n
D tr gi tr Store of value: l phng tin
gip mi ngi chuyn sc mua t hin ti sang
tng lai

THE MONETARY SYSTEM
4
2 loi tin
Tin hng ha (Commodity
money):
di hnh thi hng ha v c
gi tr ni ti- gi tr s dng
VD: cc ng tin vng, thuc
l trong cc tri giam
Tin php nh (Fiat money):
Tin khng c gi tr ni ti,
c s dng nh tin v c
chnh ph quy nh
VN: la M, VN ng
THE MONETARY SYSTEM
5
Cung tin
Cung tin (money supply money stock):
l lng tin c kh nng s dng trong nn kinh
t
Cc ti sn no c th c coi nh 1 phn ca
cung tin? 2 ng vin:
Tin mt Currency: tin giy v tin xu trong
tay ca cng chng (khng phi cc NH)
Tin gi Demand deposits: ti khon trong
ngn hng m ngi gi c th s dng bng
cch vit sec
THE MONETARY SYSTEM
6
o lng cung tin ca M
M1: tin mt, tin gi, sec du lch, v cc khon
tin gi c th vit sc khc.
M1 = $1.4 nghn t (thng 6 2008)
M2: tt c M1 cng vi tin gi tit kim,
tin gi k hn c gi tr nh (small time deposits),
chng ch cc qu tng h (money market
mutual funds), v mt vi hng mc nh khc.
M2 = $7.7 nghn t (thng 62008)
S khc bit gia M1 v M2
khng c nh hng g khi chng ta nhc ti
cung tin trong chng trnh ny.
THE MONETARY SYSTEM
7
Ngn hng T v chnh sch tin t
Ngn hng trung ng central bank: l t
chc qun l h thng ngn hng v quyt nh
cung tin
Chnh sch tin t Monetary policy: vic thit
lp cung tin bi cc nh lm chnh sch ti
NHTW
Cc d tr lin bang Federal Reserve (Fed):
NHTW ca U.S.
Ngn hng nh nc Vit Nam: NHTW ca VN
Website: www.sbv.gov.vn
THE MONETARY SYSTEM
8
H thng ca Fed
H thng cc d tr lin bang
bao gm:
Hi ng qun tr (Board
of Governors)
(7 thnh vin),
t ti Washington, DC
12 NH ti cc a phng,
nm trn khp U.S.
Hi ng th trng m
Federal Open Market
Committee (FOMC), bao gm H qun tr, mt vi
thng c ca cc NH a phng
FOMC l c quan a ra Chnh sch tin t
Ben S. Bernanke
Chair of FOMC,
Feb 2006 present
THE MONETARY SYSTEM
9
D tr ngn hng
Ti h thng NH d tr mt phn fractional
reserve banking system,
NH gi 1 phn tin gi lm d tr reserves
v s dng phn cn li cho vay.
NHTW thit lp d tr bt buc reserve
requirements,
quy nh v lng d tr ti thiu m cc NH phi gi
li cho lng tin gi ca mnh.
Cc NH c th d tr nhiu hn mc ti thiu ny.
T l d tr reserve ratio, R
= phn tin gi c gi li lm d tr
=tng d tr theo phn trm ca tng tin gi
THE MONETARY SYSTEM
10
Ti khon ch T ca NH
Ti khon ch T (T-account): Bng cn i n
gin th hin Ti sn v n ca NH.
VD:
FIRST NATIONAL BANK
Ti sn (c) N
D tr $ 10
Cho vay $ 90
Tin gi $100
N ca NH bao gm tin gi,
ti sn ca NH bao gm tin cho vay v d tr.
Trong VD nay, lu l t l d tr
R = $10/$100 = 10%.
THE MONETARY SYSTEM
11
Cc NH v cung tin: v d
Gi s c $100 trong lu thng.
xc nh nh hng ca cc NH ln cung tin,
chng ta s tnh cung tin cho 3 trng hp:
1. Khng c h thng NH
2. H thng NH d tr 100%
cc NH gi li 100% tin gi lm d tr,
khng cho vay
3. H thng NH d tr mt phn

THE MONETARY SYSTEM
12
Cc NH v cung tin: v d
CASE 1: Khng c h thng NH
Cng chng gi $100 di dng tin mt.
Cung tin = $100.
THE MONETARY SYSTEM
13
Cc NH v cung tin: v d
CASE 2: h thng NH d tr 100%
Dn chng gi $100 ti First National Bank (FNB).
FIRST NATIONAL BANK
Ti sn N
D tr $100
Cho vay $ 0
Tin gi $100
FNB gi
100%tin gi
di dng d tr:
Cung tin
= tin mt + tin gi = $0 + $100 = $100
Trong h thng NH d tr 100% ,
cc NH khng lm nh hng n khi lng
cung tin.
THE MONETARY SYSTEM
14
Cc NH v cung tin: v d
CASE 3: H thng NH d tr 1 phn
Cung tin = $190 (!!!)
Ngi gi tin c $100 di dn tin gi,
Ngi i vay c $90 di dng tin mt.
FIRST NATIONAL BANK
Ti sn N
D tr $100
Cho vay $ 0
Tin gi $100
Gi s t l d tr R = 10%. FNB cho vay ht
tr 10% tin gi gi li lm d tr:
10
90
THE MONETARY SYSTEM
15
Cc NH v cung tin: v d
Cung tin tng ln bng cch no?
Khi cc NH cho vay, h to ra tin.
Ngi i vay s nhn c
$90 tin mt (l ti sn c tnh trong cung
tin)
$90 di dng khon n mi
CASE 3: H thng NH d tr 1 phn
H thng NH d tr 1 phn to thm tin,
nhng khng to thm ca ci.
THE MONETARY SYSTEM
16
Cc NH v cung tin: v d
CASE 3: H thng NH d tr 1 phn
Nu R = 10% cho SNB, n s cho vay ton b ngoi
phn 10% khon tin gi ca n.
SECOND NATIONAL BANK
Ti sn N
D tr $ 90
Cho vay $ 0
Tin gi $ 90
Gi s ngi i vay gi $90 ti Second National
Bank (SNB).
Ban u, Tk
ch T ca
SNBs s c
dng:
9
81
THE MONETARY SYSTEM
17
Cc NH v cung tin: v d
CASE 3: H thng NH d tr mt phn
Nu TNB cng c R = 10%, n s cho vay ton b s
tin di ra sau khi gi li 10% tin gi.
THIRD NATIONAL BANK
Ti sn N
D tr $ 81
Cho vay $ 0
Tin gi $ 81
Ngi i vay gi $81 ti Third National Bank
(TNB).
Ban u,
bng ch T
ca NH
TNBs
s c dng:
$ 8.10
$72.90
THE MONETARY SYSTEM
18
Cc NH v cung tin: v d
CASE 3: H thng NH d tr 1 phn
Qu trnh c tip din, v tin c to thm t
mi khon cho vay mi.
Tin gi ban u =
FNB cho vay =
SNB cho vay =
TNB cho vay =
.
.
.
$ 100.00
$ 90.00
$ 81.00
$ 72.90
.
.
.
Tng cung tin = $1000.00
Trong vd
ny,
$100 d
tr to ra
$1000
tin.
THE MONETARY SYSTEM
19
S nhn tin
S nhn tin Money multiplier: l lng tin
m h thng NH to ra t mi la d tr (cho
trng hp ko c r r tin mt, cn cthc tng
qut xem trong slide 34)
Khi khng c r r tin mt, s nhn tin bng
1/R.
Trong v d ny,
R = 10%
S nhn tin = 1/R = 10
$100 d tr to ra $1000 tin
A C T I V E L E A R N I N G 1
Cc NH v cung tin
20
Khi dn dp nh ca, bn tm thy t $50 trong gm
bn. Bn gi t tin vo ti khon tin gi ca
bn.
T l d tr bt buc ca Fed l 20%.
A. Tnh gi tr ln nht m cung tin c th
tng ln?
B. Tnh gi tr nh nht m cung tin c th
tng ln?
A C T I V E L E A R N I N G 1
p n
21
Nu cc NH khng gi d tr d ra, th
s nhn tin = 1/R = 1/0.2 = 5
Lng tng thm ln nht trong khon tin gi l
5 x $50 = $250
Nhng cung tin cng bao gm c tin mt,
tin mt gim $50.
V vy, gi tr tng thm ln nht trong cung tin= $200.
Bn gi t tin vo ti khon tin gi ca bn.
A. Tnh gi tr ln nht m cung tin c th tng
ln?
A C T I V E L E A R N I N G 1
p n
22
Answer: $0
Nu NH ca bn khng cho vay i t khon tin gi
ca bn, tin mt gim $50, tin gi tng $50, cung
tin khng i.
Bn gi t tin vo ti khon tin gi ca bn.
A. Tnh gi tr ln nht m cung tin c th tng
ln?
Answer: $200
B. Tnh gi tr nh nht m cung tin c th tng
ln?
THE MONETARY SYSTEM
23
3 cng c kim sot tin ca Fed
1. nghip v th trng m Open-Market
Operations (OMOs): Fed mua hoc bn tri
phiu chnh ph.
tng cung tin, Fed mua tri phiu chnh ph, tr
bng nhng ng la mi.
nhng ng la ny c gi vo NH, tng d
tr
cc NH dng cho vay, khin cung tin tng.
gim cung tin, Fed bn tri phiu chnh ph, rt
tin ra khi lu thng, v qu trnh din ra ngc li.
THE MONETARY SYSTEM
24
3 cng c kim sot tin ca Fed
1. nghip v th trng m (OMOs): Fed mua
hoc bn tri phiu chnh ph
OMOs rt d dng thc hin, v l mt trong nhng
cng c c la chn trong vic thc thi CSTT.
THE MONETARY SYSTEM
25
3 cng c kim sot tin ca Fed
2. d tr bt buc Reserve Requirements (RR):
nh hng ti vic NH c th c vay c nhiu
hay t .
tng cung tin, Fed gim RR.
cc NH c th cho vay c nhiu hn t mi la
d tr, lm tng s nhn tin v tng cung tin.
gim cung tin, Fed tng RR,
qu trnh din ra ngc li.
Fed him khi sd d tr bt buc qun l cung tin:
bi vic ny c th lm gin on n hot ng ca
cc NH.
THE MONETARY SYSTEM
26
3 cng c kim sot tin ca Fed
3. Li sut chit khu the Discount Rate:
li m Fed p dng i vi cc khon vay m cc
NH vay ca n
Khi cc NH c d tr thp,
h c th vay d tr t Fed.
tng cung tin,
Fed c th gim ls chit khu, iu ny khuyn khch
cc NH i vay Fed nhiu hn
Cc NH c th cho vay c nhiu hn, iu ny lm
tng cung tin.
gim cung tin, Fed c th tng ls chit khu.
THE MONETARY SYSTEM
27
3 cng c kim sot tin ca Fed
3. Li sut chit khu the Discount Rate:
li m Fed p dng i vi cc khon vay m cc
NH vay ca n
Fed s dng cc khon cho vay chit khu cung
cp thanh khon thm cho cc t chc ti chnh gp
kh khn,
vd. Sau khi th trng chng khon sp Thng 10
nm 1987.
Nu khng c khng khong hay ri ro g th Fed rt
him khi dng cng c cho vay chit khu ny- khi
Fed c coi l ngi cho vay cui cng.
THE MONETARY SYSTEM
28
Li sut chnh sch-
The Federal Funds Rate
Ti cc ngy, nhng NH thiu d tr c th i vay
t cc NH tha d tr.
Li sut p dng cho cc khon vay ny c gi
l federal funds rate- y l li sut chnh sch
ca M
NHTW (FOMC) s dng th trng m OMOs
iu chnh li sut ny.
Rt nhiu nhng loi li sut khc u c mi
tng quan rt ln vi loi li sut ny, v th s
thay i trong loi ls ny s gy ra s thay i
trong cc loi ls khc, v to ra hiu ng ln ti
nn kinh t.
Fed Funds Rate v cc loi ls khc, 1970-2008
(
%
)

0
5
10
15
20
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Fed funds
C bn
Tp kho bc 3thng
Vay th chp
THE MONETARY SYSTEM
30
Li sut chnh sch ca Vit Nam
Li sut chnh sch ca VN l ls c bn, li sut
lin ngn hng hay li sut chit khu, li sut
ti cp vn.?
Vn, trong mt s c s d liu, Ls c bn
c gi l policy rate, tuy nhin iu ny khng
ng.
Theo nh c ch hot ng ca cc NHTW ca
cc nc th li sut lin NH l loi li sut ph
hp nht coi lm li sut chnh sch Policy
rate ca VN

THE MONETARY SYSTEM
31
0.000
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
2001Q1 2002Q1 2003Q1 2004Q1 2005Q1 2006Q1 2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1
Lending rate
Policy rate
Discount rate
Refinancing rate
VNINOR
Treasury Bill rate
Cc loi li sut ca Vit Nam
THE MONETARY SYSTEM
32
CS tin t v li sut chnh sch Fed funds
rate
tng fed funds
rate, Fed bn
tri phiu CP
(OMO).
iu ny lm gim
d tr trong h
thng NH, gim
cung federal
funds,
Khin r
f
tng.
r
f
F
D
1
S
2
3.75%

F
2
S
1
F
1
3.50%

The Federal
Funds market
Federal
funds rate
Quantity of
federal funds
THE MONETARY SYSTEM
33
Nhng vn trong qun l cung tin
Nu HGD gi tin ca h di dng tin mt
nhiu hn, cc NH s c t d tr hn, cho vay
c t hn v lm cung tin gim.
Nu cc NH gi nhiu d tr hn so vi mc
bt buc, h s to c t khon cho vay hn,
lm cung tin gim.
Tuy nhin, Fed c th nm bt c hnh vi ca
HGD v NH duy tr vic kim sot cung tin
mt cch kh chnh xc.
THE MONETARY SYSTEM
34
Cng thc chnh xc ca s nhn tin

THE MONETARY SYSTEM

35
NH ph sn v cung tin
Ph sn ca NH run on banks:
Khi ngi dn c 1 ngun thng tin rng NH ca h
ang gp rc ri, h c th x n NH rt vn,
h s nm gi nhiu tin mt hn v t tin gi hn.
Di h thng NH d tr mt phn, cc NH s ko c
d tr trong NH tr cho TT C cc ngi
ngi, v th n c th b ph sn v ng ca.
ng thi, cc NH khc cng s cho vay t hn v d
tr nhiu hn lm yn lng khch hng.
S kin ny s lm tng t l d tr R, lm hn ch
qu trnh to tin, khin cung tin gim.
THE MONETARY SYSTEM
36
NH ph sn v cung tin
Trong g 1929-1933, ln sng ph sn v ng
ca ca cc NH khin cung tin gim 28%.
Rt nhiu nh KT tin rng iu ny l mt
nguyn nhn quan trng gy ra cuc i suy
thoi.
K t , xut hin dv bo him tin gi, l mt
cch thc bo v cc NH khi vic ph sn U.S.
TM TT CHNG
Tin t bao gm tin mt v cc loi tin gi NH.
The Federal Reserve l NHTW ca U.S., l c
quan c trch nhim trong vic iu hnh h
thng tin t.
The Fed qun l cung tin thng qua cng c th
trng m l chnh. Mua tri phiu chnh ph
lm tng cung tin, bn TPCP lm gim cung
tin.
37
TM TT CHNG
Trong h thng NH d tr mt phn, cc NH to
ra tin cho nn kt khi n cho vay. D tr trong
cc NH c hiu ng nhn i vi cung tin (trong
TH ko c r r tin mt, s nhn tin bng ng
1/R).
38
2009 South-Western, a part of Cengage Learning, all rights reserved
C H A P T E R
Tng trng tin t v lm pht
Economics
P R I N C I P L E S O F
N. Gregory Mankiw
PowerPoint Slides
by Nguyn Th Hin FTU galaxyftu@yahoo.com
8
Trong chng ny,
tm li p cho cc vn sau:
Cung tin nh hng n lm pht v li sut danh
ngha ntn?
Cung tin c nh hng n cc bin thc t nh
GDP thc t hay li sut thc t ko?
Ti sao lm pht li ging nh 1 loi thu?
Nhng chi ph ca lm pht l g? Chng nghim
trng nh th no?
40
MONEY GROWTH AND INFLATION
41
Gii thiu
Chng ny gii thiu l thuyt v s lng
tin quantity theory of money gii thch mt
trong 10 nguyn l trong chng 1:
Gi c tng khi chnh ph in qu nhiu
tin.
Phn ln cc nh kinh t u tin rng l thuyt
s lng l mt s gii thch rt tt lm pht
trong di hn.
MONEY GROWTH AND INFLATION
42
Gi tr ca tin
P = mc gi
(vd., CPI hay ch s iu chnh GDP)
P l gi ca gi hng ha, c o bng n v
tin t.
1/P l gi tr ca $1, c o theo n v hng
ha.
V d: gi hng gm c 1 ci ko.
Nu P = $2, gi tr ca $1 l 1/2 ci ko
Nu P = $3, gi tr ca $1 l 1/3 ci ko
Lm pht lm gi c tng v lm gim gi tr ca
tin.
MONEY GROWTH AND INFLATION
43
L thuyt s lng tin
c xy dng vo th k 18
th
bi trit gia c tn
David Hume v cc nh kinh t theo trng phi
c in
Gn y dc hon thin hn bi nh kt ot
gii Nobel Milton Friedman
Lt ny khng nh s lng tin quyt nh gi tr
ca tin
Chng ta s nghin cu l thuyt ny da trn 2
cch tip cn:
1. M hnh cung v cu
2. Phng trnh
MONEY GROWTH AND INFLATION
44
Cu tin (MD)
ch tng tt c cc ti sn c tnh thanh
khon m mi ngi mun nm gi trong c cu
ti sn ca mnh.
Lng cu tin ny ph thuc vo P:
s tng ln trong P lm gim gi tr ca tin,
mua HH-DV s cn nhiu tin hn.
Nh vy, lng cu tin s ph thuc ngc
chiu vo gi tr ca tin v ph thuc cng
chiu vo P, khi nhng th khc khng i
nhng th khc bao gm thu nhp thc t, cc
loi li sut, chc nng ca my ATMs.)
MONEY GROWTH AND INFLATION
45
M hnh cung-cu tin
Gi tr ca
tin, 1/P
Mc gi, P
Lng tin
1 1
1.33
2
4
Khi gi tr ca
tin tng, mc
gi gim.
MONEY GROWTH AND INFLATION
46
M hnh cung-cu tin
Gi tr ca
tin, 1/P
Mc gi, P
Lng tin
1



1
1.33
2
4
MS
1
$1000
NHTW c nh MS,
bt k gi tr ca P.
MONEY GROWTH AND INFLATION
47
M hnh cung-cu tin
Gi tr ca
tin, 1/P
Mc gi, P
Lng tin
1



1
1.33
2
4
MD
1
S gim xung trong
gi tr ca tin (hay P
tng) lm tng lng
tin m mi ngi
mun nm gi:
MONEY GROWTH AND INFLATION
48
MS
1
$1000
Gi tr ca
tin, 1/P
Mc gi, P
Lng tin
1



1
1.33
2
4
M hnh cung-cu tin
MD
1
P iu chnh
cung tin v cu
tin bng nhau.
Mc
gi
cn
bng
Gi tr
ca tin
cn
bng
A
MONEY GROWTH AND INFLATION
49
MS
1
$1000
nh hng ca vic bm thm tin
Gi tr ca
tin, 1/P
Mc gi, P
Lng tin
1



1
1.33
2
4
MD
1
Mc
gi
CB
Gi tr
ca
tin
CB
A
MS
2
$2000
B
Gi tr ca tin
gim,
v P tng.
Gi s Fed tng
cung tin
MONEY GROWTH AND INFLATION
50
Nhn qua v qu trnh iu chnh
Qu trnh iu chnh ntn? Mt cch ngn gn:
Ti mc gi P ban u, s tng ln trong MS
khin d cung tin.
Mi ngi s loi b phn d tin bng cch
mua thm HHDV hoc cho ngi khc vay
tiu dng. Kt qu: tng cu v HH
Nhng cung HH th khng thay i, do m gi
HH buc phi tng.
(nhng th khc xy ra trong ngn hn, chng ta s
nc trong nhng chng sau.)
Kt qu t th: MS tng lm P tng.
MONEY GROWTH AND INFLATION
51
Bin thc t v Bin danh ngha
Bin danh ngha Nominal variables c o
lng bng n v tin t.
vd: GDP danh ngha,
li sut danh ngha (t l tng thm c tnh bng
$)
tin lng danh ngha ($ trn 1 h lao ng)
Bin thc t Real variables c o lng
bng n v hin vt.
vd: GDP thc t,
li sut thc t (o theo n v sn lng)
tin lng thc t (o theo n v sn lng)
MONEY GROWTH AND INFLATION
52
Bin thc t v Bin danh ngha
Gi c thng thng c o bng n v tin.
Gi ca 1 chic a compact: $15/cd
Gi ca 1 chic pepperoni pizza: $10/pizza
Gi tng i Relative price l gi ca 1 HH ny
tng quan so snh (chia cho) vi HH khc:
Gi tng i ca CDs theo pizza:
Gi ca cd
gi pizza
$15/cd
$10/pizza
=
Gi tng i c o lng theo n v hin vt,
v vy n l bin thc t.
= 1.5 pizza trn 1 cd
MONEY GROWTH AND INFLATION
53
Tin lng thc t v danh ngha
Mt gi tng i rt quan trng l tin lng thc t:
W = lng danh ngha = gi ca lao ng, vd., $15/h
P = mc gi = gi HHDV vd., $5/1 n v sn lng
Tin lng thc t v gi tng i ca lao ng so
vi gi ca sn lng:
W
P
= 3 v sn lng trn 1 gi
$15/gi

$5/v sn lng
=
MONEY GROWTH AND INFLATION
54
S phn i c in
phn i c in classical dichotomy: phn loi
bin thnh bin thc v bin danh ngha
Hume v cc nh KTH c in khng nh rng
tng trng tin t ch nh hng n cc bin
danh ngha m ko nh hng ti cc bin thc t.
Nu NHTW tng gp i cung tin,
Hume v cc nh c in tin rng
Tt c cc bin danh ngha bao gm c gi
s tng gp i.
Cn tt c cc bin thc t bao gm gi
tng i
s khng thay i .
MONEY GROWTH AND INFLATION
55
Tnh trung lp ca tin
Tnh trung lp ca tin Monetary neutrality: s
thay i trong cung tin khng nh hng ti cc
bin thc t
Vic nhn i cung tin s khin tt c gi danh
ngha gp i; vy cn gi tng i th sao?
Ban u, gi tng i ca cd theo pizza l
Gi cd
gi pizza
= 1.5 pizzas trn1 cd
$15/cd
$10/pizza
=
khi gi danh ngha tng gp i,
Gi cd
Gi pizza
= 1.5 pizzas trn 1 cd
$30/cd
$20/pizza
=
Gi tng i
khng thay i
MONEY GROWTH AND INFLATION
56
Tnh trung lp ca tin
Tng t, tin lng thc t W/P vn gi nguyn, v
vy
Lng cung lao ng khng i
Lng cu lao ng khng i
Tng vic lm khng thay i
Tng t cho vn t bn v cc ngun lc khc.
Bi v vic s dng tt c cc ngun lc l khng
thay i nn sn lng cng khng i khi cung tin
thay i.
Tnh trung lp ca tin: s thay i trong cung tin
khng nh hng ti cc bin thc t
MONEY GROWTH AND INFLATION
57
Tnh trung lp ca tin
Hu ht cc nh kinh t u tin rng s phn
i c in v tnh trung lp ca tin ch m t
nn kinh t trong di hn.
Trong cc chng sau, chng ta s xem xt
vic thay i cung tin c th c nhng nh
hng quan trng trong ngn hn i vi cc
bin thc.
MONEY GROWTH AND INFLATION
58
Tc chu chuyn ca tin
Tc chu chuyn ca tin velocity of
money: t l m tin c chuyn t tay ngi
ny sang ngi khc
K hiu:
P x Y = GDP danh ngha
= (mc gi) x (GDP thc t)
M = cung tin
V = tc chu chuyn
Velocity formula:
V =
P x Y
M
MONEY GROWTH AND INFLATION
59
Tc chu chuyn ca tin
V d vi mt HH: pizza.
Trong nm 2008,
Y = GDP thc t = 3000 pizzas
P = mc gi = gi ca pizza = $10
P x Y = danh ngha GDP = gi tr ca pizzas =
$30,000
M = cung tin = $10,000
V = chu chuyn = $30,000/$10,000 = 3
trung bnh 1 la c s dng trong 3 giao dch
Cng thc tc chu chuyn:
V =
P x Y
M
1 HH: ng.
Nn kt c lao ng, t bn v t ai sx Y =
800 gi ng (bushel=36lt).
V l c nh.
trong 2008, MS = $2000, P = $5/gi.
Tnh GDP danh ngha v tc chu chuyn ca
tin trong nm 2008.
A C T I V E L E A R N I N G 1
Bi tp
60
A C T I V E L E A R N I N G 1
p n
61
Cho trc: Y = 800, V ko i,
MS = $2000 v P = $5 trong 2005.
Tnh GDP danh ngha v tc chu chuyn ca
tin trong nm 2008.
GDP danh ngha = P x Y = $5 x 800 = $4000
V =
P x Y
M
=
$4000
$2000
= 2
GDP danh ngha, M2, v tc chu chuyn ca M
(1960=100) 1960-2007
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
GDP danh
ngha
M2
Tc chu chuyn
Tc chu
chuyn kh
n nh
MONEY GROWTH AND INFLATION
63
Phng trnh s lng
Nhn 2 v vi M:
M x V = P x Y
Phng trnh ny c gi l phng trnh s
lng quantity equation
Cng thc V:
V =
P x Y
M
MONEY GROWTH AND INFLATION
64
L thuyt s lng theo 5 bc
1. V l n nh.
2. Do , thay i trong M khin GDP danh ngha (P x Y)
thay i ng s phn trm nh vy.
3. Thay i trong M khng nh hng ti Y:
tin l trung lp,
Y c quyt nh bi cng ngh v ngun lc
4. V vy, P thay i theo ng s phn trm ging
P x Y v M.
5. Cung tin tng nhanh cng khin lm pht tng nhah.
Bt u vi phng trnh s lng: M x V = P x Y
A C T I V E L E A R N I N G 2
Bi tp
65
1 HH: ng. Nn kt c lao ng, t bn v t
ai sx Y = 800 gi ng. V n nh. Trong 2008,
MS = $2000, P = $5/gi ng.
Trong 2009, Fed tng MS 5%, thnh $2100.
a. Tnh gi tr GDP danh ngha v P nm 2009.
Tnh t l lm pht giai on 2008-2009.
b. Gi s tin b cng ngh khin Y tng t 800 ln
824 vo 2009. Tnh t l lm pht giai on 2008-
2009.
A C T I V E L E A R N I N G 2
p n
66
cho: Y = 800 gi ng. V n nh.
Trong 2008, MS = $2000, P = $5/gi ng.
Trong 2009, Fed tng MS 5%, thnh $2100.
a. Tnh gi tr GDP danh ngha v P nm 2009.
Tnh t l lm pht giai on 2008-2009.

GDP danh ngha = P x Y = M x V (pt s lng)
P =
P x Y
Y
=
$4200
800
= $5.25
= $2100 x 2 = $4200
T l lm pht=
$5.25 5.00
5.00
= 5% (= t l tng MS!)
A C T I V E L E A R N I N G 2
Answers
67
cho: Y = 800 gi ng. V n nh.
Trong 2008, MS = $2000, P = $5/gi ng.
Trong 2009, Fed tng MS 5%, thnh $2100.
b. Gi s tin b cng ngh khin Y tng t 800 ln
824 vo 2009. Tnh t l lm pht giai on 2008-
2009.

u tin, s dng pt s lng tnh P:
P =
M x V
Y
=
$4200
824
= $5.10
T l lm pht=
$5.10 5.00
5.00
= 2%
Nu GDP thc t ko i, th
t l lm pht = tc tng tin.
Nu GDP tng trng, th
t l lm pht < tc tng tin.
Gch chn:
Kinh t tng trng lm s lng giao dch
tng.
Mt phn tin tng thm phc v cho nhng
giao dch tng thm ny.
Tng cung tin qu mc gy ra lm pht.
A C T I V E L E A R N I N G 2
Tm tt v bi hc v
L thuyt s lng tin
68
MONEY GROWTH AND INFLATION
69
Siu lm pht Hyperinflation
Siu lm pht c th c nh ngha l t l lm
pht vt qu 50% mt thng.
Nhc li 1 trong 10 nguyn l chng 1:
Gi c tng khi chnh ph in qu nhiu
tin.
S gia tng qu mc trong cung tin lun lun
gy ra siu lm pht.

MONEY GROWTH AND INFLATION
70
Thu lm pht The Inflation Tax
Khi thu v thu l khng v kh nng vay
mn cng c gii hn, chnh ph c th in tin
phc v cho nhng chi tiu ca mnh.
Hu ht cc cuc siu lm pht u bt u
bng cch ny.
Thu nhp t vic in tin l thu lm pht
inflation tax: in tin gy ra lm pht, n ging
nh 1 khon thu nh vo nhng ngi gi
tin.
Ti U.S., thu lm pht hin ti chim khong
di 3% tng thu v thu.
MONEY GROWTH AND INFLATION
71
Hiu ng Fisher
Sp xp li nh ngha ca li sut thc t:
Li sut thc t c quyt nh bi tit kim v
u t trn th trng vn vay.
Tng trng cung tin quyt nh t l lm pht.
V vy, phng trnh ny th hin li sut danh
ngha c quyt nh ntn.
Li sut
thc t
Li sut
danh ngha
T l lm
pht
+ =
MONEY GROWTH AND INFLATION
72
Hiu ng Fisher
Trong di hn, tin l trung lp, v vy s thay i
trong tng trng tin s nh hng ti t l lm
pht nhng khng nh hng ti li sut thc t.
V vy, li sut danh ngha iu chnh tng ng
vi thay i trong t l lm pht.
Mi quan h ny c gi l Fisher effect
sau khi Irving Fisher nghin cu n.
ls danh ngha & t l lm pht M, 1960-2007
0
3
6
9
12
15
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Percent
(per year)
Nominal interest rate Inflation rate
Mi qh gn nhau
gia 2 bin ny l
bng chng ca
hiu ng Fisher.
73
MONEY GROWTH AND INFLATION
74
Hiu ng Fisher & Thu lm pht
Thu lm pht nh vo nhng ngi cm tin,
ch khng nh vo nhng ai nm gi ti sn.
Hiu ng Fisher: s tng ln trong lm pht gy
ra s tng ln ging th trong li sut danh ngha,
v th li sut thc t (trn ti sn) l khng i.
MONEY GROWTH AND INFLATION
75
Chi ph ca lm pht
Nhm ln v lm pht: hu ht mi ngi u
ngh rng lm pht lm gim thu nhp thc t.
Nhng lm pht l s tng ln trong mc gi
chung ca nhng th m mi ngi mua v
nhng th m mi ngi bn (vd., sc lao ng
ca h).
Trong di hn, thu nhp thc t c xc nh
bi cc bin thc t ch khng phi l t l lm
pht.
Thu nhp theo gi lao ng TB v CPI
CPI
(ct bn tri)
Tin lng
danh ngha
(ct bn phi)
Lm pht khin
CPI v tin lng
danh ngha tng
ln cng nhau
sut di hn.
76
MONEY GROWTH AND INFLATION
77
Chi ph ca lm pht
Chi ph mn giy Shoeleather costs: ngun
lc b lng ph khi lm pht thc y mi ngi
gim lng tin nm gi
Bao gm thi gian v chi ph giao dch ca vic
i ti ngn hng thng xuyn hn rt tin
Chi ph thc n Menu costs: chi ph ca vic
thay i gi
In menu mi, gi cc catalog mi...


MONEY GROWTH AND INFLATION
78
Chi ph ca lm pht
Phn b sai ngun lc v s thay i ca gi
tng i: Dn ko tng gi tt c cc cc mt
hng cng mt lc, nn gi tng i c th thay
iiu ny lm bin dng s phn b ngun
lc.
S nhm ln v bt tin : lm pht lm thay i
thc o chng ta dng tnh ton mi giao
dch.
khin vic lp k hoch di hn tr nn phc tp
hn v s so snh lng la cc thi im
khc nhau s kh khn hn.
MONEY GROWTH AND INFLATION
79
Chi ph ca lm pht
Bin dng thu Tax distortions:
lm pht khin cho thu nhp danh ngha tng
trng nhanh hn thu nhp thc t.
Thu c tnh trn thu nhp danh ngha, mt s
loi thu khng c iu chnh theo lm pht.
v vy, lm pht khin mi ngi phi tr nhiu
thu hn mc d thu nhp thc t ca h khng
tng.
A C T I V E L E A R N I N G 3
Bin dng thu
80
Bn gi $1000 vo ngn hng trong 1 nm.
TH 1: lm pht = 0%, ls danh ngha = 10%
TH 2: lm pht = 10%, ls danh ngha = 20%
a. Trng hp no gi tr thc t ca khon tin bn
gi tng nhanh hn?
Gi s thu sut l 25%.
b. TH no bn phi tr nhiu thu hn?
c. Tnh ls danh ngha sau thu,
ri tr i lm pht c ls thc t cho c 2 TH.
A C T I V E L E A R N I N G 3
p n
81
a. Trng hp no gi tr thc t ca khon tin
bn gi tng nhanh hn?
C 2 TH, ls thc t u l 10%,
v vy gi tr thc t ca khon tin gi tng
trng 10% (trc thu).
Tin gi = $1000.
TH 1: lm pht = 0%, ls danh ngha = 10%
TH 2: lm pht = 10%, ls danh ngha = 20%
A C T I V E L E A R N I N G 3
p n
82
b. TH no bn phi tr nhiu thu hn?
TH 1: thu nhp t tin li = $100,
bn s tr $25 tin thu.
TH 2: thu nhp t tin li = $200,
bn s tr $50 tin thu.
Tin gi = $1000. mc thu sut = 25%.
TH 1: lm pht = 0%, ls danh ngha = 10%
TH 2: lm pht = 10%, ls danh ngha = 20%
A C T I V E L E A R N I N G 3
p n
83
c. Tnh ls danh ngha sau thu,
ri tr i lm pht c ls thc t cho c 2 TH.
TH 1: danh ngha= 0.75 x 10% = 7.5%
thc t = 7.5% 0% = 7.5%
TH 2: danh ngha = 0.75 x 20% = 15%
thc t = 15% 10% = 5%
Tin gi = $1000. thu sut = 25%.
TH 1: lm pht = 0%, ls danh ngha = 10%
TH 2: lm pht = 10%, ls danh ngha = 20%
A C T I V E L E A R N I N G 3
Tm tt v bi hc
84
Lm pht
Lm tng ls danh ngha (hiu ng Fisher)
ch ko lm tng ls thc t
Lm tng gnh nng thu ca ngi gi
tin
Lm gim ls thc t sau thu
Tin gi = $1000. mc thu sut = 25%.
TH 1: lm pht = 0%, ls danh ngha = 10%
TH 2: lm pht = 10%, ls danh ngha = 20%
MONEY GROWTH AND INFLATION
85
Chi ph ring ca lm pht ko d kin
Ti phn phi ca ci mt cch ty tin
Arbitrary redistributions of wealth
Lm pht cao hn d kin chuyn sc mua t
ngi cho vay sang ngi i vay: ngi vay phi
thanh ton bng nhng ng la t gi tr hn.
Lm pht thp hn d kin chuyn sc mua t
ngi i vay sang ngi cho vay.
Lm pht cng cao th cng khng n nh v
cng kh d on hn lm pht mc thp.
V vy, vic ti phn phi ca ci ny s thng
xuyn hn khi lm pht mc cao.
MONEY GROWTH AND INFLATION
86
Chi ph lm pht
Tt c cc chi ph ny ca lm pht s rt cao i
vi nn kinh t c t l lm pht cao, nht l khi
nn kinh t c lm pht phi m.
Vi nn kinh t c lm pht thp (< 10% mt
nm),
nhng chi ph ny s kh l nh, cc chi ph l
ln hay nh cng l vn m ra mi ngi
tranh lun.

MONEY GROWTH AND INFLATION
87
KT LUN
Chng ny gii thch mt trong 10 nguyn l
ca kinh t hc:
Gi c tng khi chnh ph in qu nhiu
tin.
Chng ta cng bit l tin t l trung lp trong di
hn, v ch c nh hng n cc bin danh
ngha.
Chng sau, chng ta s thy tin t cng c
nh hng ln ti sn lng v vic lm trong
ngn hn.
TM TT CHNG
gii thch lm pht trong di hn, cc nh kinh t
s dng phng trnh s lng tin. Theo l thuyt
ny, mc gi l ph thuc vo lng tin, v t l lm
pht ph thuc vo tc tng trng ca cung tin.
Phn i c in l vic phn chia cc bin thnh hai
loi danh ngha v thc t. Tnh trung lp ca tin
ngha l s thay i trong cung tin ch nh hng
n cc bin danh ngha ch ko nh hng n cc
bin thc t. Phn ln cc nh kinh t tin rng
tng ny ch m t nn kinh t trong di hn.
88
TM TT CHNG
Thu lm pht l s st gim gi tr thc t ca vic
nm gi tin khi chnh ph gy ra lm pht bng cch
in tin.
Hiu ng Fisher l mi quan h 1-1 gia s thay i
trong t l lm pht v nhng thay i trong li sut
danh ngha.
Chi ph ca lm pht bao gm chi ph thc n, chi ph
mn giy, nhm ln v bt tin, thay i gi tng i
v ti phn phi ngun lc, ti phn phi ca ci mt
cch ty tin
89
2009 South-Western, a part of Cengage Learning, all rights reserved
C H A P T E R
nh hng ca Chnh sch ti kha
v Chnh sch tin t ti Tng cu
Economics
P R I N C I P L E S O F
N. Gregory Mankiw
PowerPoint Slides
by Nguyen Thi Hien FTU galaxyftu@yahoo.com
6+7
Trong chng ny chng ta s tm li
p cho cc cu hi sau:
Hiu ng li sut gip gii thch s dc xung ca
ng tng cu ntn?
NHTW c th s dng CSTT ca mnh dch
chuyn ng AD ntn?
2 cch m CSTK c th nh hng ti Tng cu l
g?
Cc tranh lun ng h v phn i vic sd cc
chnh sch n nh nn KT ntn?
91
THE INFLUENCE OF MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY
92
Gii thiu
Cc chng trc nhc ti:
nh hng di hn ca CSTK ti li sut, u
t v tng trng KT
nh hng di hn ca CSTT ti mc gi v
lm pht
Chng ny s tp trung vo nh hng trong
ngn hn ca CSTK v CSTT, thng qua nhng
tc ng ti tng cu.
THE INFLUENCE OF MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY
93
Tng cu
Nhc li, ng AD dc xung v 3 l do:
Hiu ng ca ci
Hiu ng li sut
Hiu ng t gi
Tip:
M hnh cung-cu gip gii thch hiu ng t gi
v vic CSTT tc ng ti tng cu ntn.
y l hiu ng
quan trng nht
i vi nn KT M
THE INFLUENCE OF MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY
94
L thuyt a thch thanh khon
The Theory of Liquidity Preference
L thuyt n gin ca li sut (k hiu r)
r thay i iu chnh cho cung tin v cu
tin bng nhau
Cung tin: gi s c c nh bi NHTW v
khng ph thuc vo li sut
THE INFLUENCE OF MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY
95
L thuyt a thch thanh khon

Cu tin th hin lng phng tin thanh ton
(cc TS c tnh thanh khon) m mi ngi mun
nm gi trong tng s cc ti sn ca mnh.
n gin, gi s ca ci ca HGD ch bao
gm 2 loi ti sn:
Tin thanh khon n ko c li sut
Tri phiu c li sut nhng ko thanh khon
cu tin ca HGD phn nh s a thch thanh
khon.
Cc bin nh hng ti lng cu tin :
Y, r, v P.
THE INFLUENCE OF MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY
96
Cu tin
Gi s thu nhp thc t (Y) tng. Cc th khc
khng i, iu g s xy ra vi cu tin?
Nu Y tng:
HGD mun mua nhiu HHDV hn,
h cn nhiu tin hn.
c c lng tin cn thit ny, h s c
gng bn tri.
Nh vy., s tng ln trong Y lm cho cu tin
tng, cc th khc ko i.
A. Gi s r tng, nhng Y v P khng i. iu
g s xy ra vi cu tin?
B. Gi s P tng, nhng Y v r khng i. iu
g s xy ra vi cu tin?

A C T I V E L E A R N I N G 1
Cc nhn t quyt nh cu tin
97
A. Gi s r tng, nhng Y v P khng i. iu
g s xy ra vi cu tin?
r l chi ph c hi ca vic nm gi tin.
r tng lm gim lng cu tin: HGD s c
gng mua tri phiu c hng li sut
cao hn.
V vy, mt s tng ln trong r s khin cu
tin gim, nhng th khc ko i.
A C T I V E L E A R N I N G 1
tr li
98
B. Gi s P tng, nhng Y v r khng i. iu
g s xy ra vi cu tin?
Nu Y khng i, mi ngi s mun mua mt
lng HHDV ging nh c.
Nhng v mc gi P cao hn, nn h s cn
nhiu tin hn lm vic .
V vy, mt s tng ln trong P s khin cu
tin tng, nhng th khc ko i.
A C T I V E L E A R N I N G 1
p n
99
THE INFLUENCE OF MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY
100
r c xc nh ntn
MS l ng thng
ng: s thay i
trong r ko lm ah ti
MS, v MS c Fed
iu chnh.
MD dc xung:
mt s gim xung
trong r lm tng
lng cu tin.
M
Li sut
MS
MD
1
r
1
Lng cung
c c nh
bi Fed
Ls CB
THE INFLUENCE OF MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY
101
Hiu ng li sut lm vic ntn
Y
P
M
Li sut
AD
MS
MD
1
MD
2
P
2
P
1
Y
1
Y
2
r
2
r
1
S gim xung trong P lm gim cu tin, khin li
sut r gim.
S gim xung trong r lm tng I v lng cu HHDV.
THE INFLUENCE OF MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY
102
Chnh sch tin t v Tng cu
t c mc cc tiu KT v m, Fed c th
s dng CSTT dch chuyn ng AD.
Cng c chnh sch ca Feds l MS.
Cc tin tc thng xuyn report li mc li sut
mc tiu ca Fed.
Chnh xc hn, l li sut chnh sch federal
funds rate li sut lin NH cho cc khon vay
ngn hn
thay i li sut v dch chuyn ng AD,
Fed tin hnh cc nghip v th trng m
thay i MS.
THE INFLUENCE OF MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY
103
nh hng ca s gim cung tin
Y
P
M
Li sut
AD
1
MS
1
MD

P
1
Y
1
r
1
MS
2
r
2
AD
2
Y
2
Fed c th tng r bng cch gim cung tin.
S tng ln trong r lm gim lng cu HHDV.
Vi mi trng hp sau y,
- xc nh nh hng trong ngn hn ti sn
lng
- x xem Fed nn iu chnh cung tin v li sut
ntn n nh sn lng
A. Quc hi c gng duy tr cn bng cn cn ngn
sch bng cch ct gim chi tiu chnh ph.
B. S bng n ca th trng chng khon lm tng
ca ci ngi dn
C. Chin tranh n ra Trung ng khin gi du
tng mnh.
A C T I V E L E A R N I N G 2
Chnh sch tin t
104
A. Quc hi c gng duy tr cn bng cn cn
ngn sch bng cch ct gim chi tiu chnh
ph .
s kin ny s lm gim tng cu v sn
lng.
x l trng hp ny, the Fed nn tng
cung tin, gim li sut lm tng tng cu.
A C T I V E L E A R N I N G 2
p n
105
B. S bng n ca th trng chng khon lm
tng ca ci ngi dn.
S kin ny s lm tng tng cu, khin sn
lng tng cao hn mc sn lng t nhin.
x l trng hp ny, Fed nn gim cung
tin MS v tng li sut r gim tng cung.
A C T I V E L E A R N I N G 2
p n
106
C. Chin tranh n ra Trung ng khin gi du
tng mnh.
S kin ny s lm gim tng cung, khin sn
lng gim.
i ph vi TH ny, Fed nn tng MS v
gim r lm tng tng cu .
A C T I V E L E A R N I N G 2
p n
107
THE INFLUENCE OF MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY
108
Chnh sch ti kha v Tng cu
Chnh sch ti kha Fiscal policy: thit lp
mc chi tiu v thu v thu ca chnh ph
Chnh sch ti kha m rng expansionary
tng G v/hoc gim T
Dch ng AD sang phi
Chnh sch ti kha Tht cht Contractionary
GimG v/hoc tng T
Dch AD sang tri
Chnh sch ti kha c 2 hiu ng v AD...
THE INFLUENCE OF MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY
109
1. Hiu ng s nhn
Nu CP mua $20b my bay ca Boeing, thu nhp
ca Boeing s tng $20b.
Ci ny ng gp cho cng nhn ca Boeing
(di dng lng) v cho ch DN (di dng li
nhun hay c tc).
Nhng ngi ny cng ng thi l ngi tiu
dng, v h s tng tiu dng thm mt phn ca
thu nhp tng thm .
Phn tiu dng tng thm ny to ra s gia tng
hn na trong tng cu.
Hiu ng s nhn Multiplier effect: l s dch
chuyn ra ngoi thm na ca AD l kt qu ca
chnh sch ti kha lm tng thu nhp v t
lm tng tiu dng
THE INFLUENCE OF MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY
110
1. Hiu ng s nhn
S tng ln $20b
trong G ban u lm
AD dch phi $20b.
S tng ln trong Y
khin tiu dng C
tng, li lm AD dch
hn na sang bn
phi.
Y
P
AD
1
P
1
AD
2
AD
3
Y
1
Y
3
Y
2
$20 billion
THE INFLUENCE OF MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY
111
Xu hng tiu dng cn bin
Hiu ng s nhn ln ntn?
Ph thuc vo vic ngi tiu dng phn ng
ntn vi s tn ln trong thu nhp.
Marginal propensity to consume (MPC):
t l gia phn tiu dng tng thm trn phn
thu nhp tng thm
vd., nu MPC = 0.8 v thu nhp tng $100,
C tiu dng s tng $80.
THE INFLUENCE OF MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY
112
K hiu: G l lng thay i ca G,
Y v C l lng thay i tng ng ca Y v C
Y = C + I + G + NX ng nht thc
Y = C + G I v NX khng thay i
Y = MPC Y + G v C = MPC Y
gii ra Y
1
1 MPC
Y = G
Cng thc s nhn
S nhn chi tiu
THE INFLUENCE OF MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY
113
ln ca s nhn ph thuc vo gi tr MPC.
vd., nu MPC = 0.5 s nhn = 2
nu MPC = 0.75 s nhn = 4
nu MPC = 0.9 s nhn = 10

1
1 MPC
Y = G
Cng thc ca s nhn
S nhn
MPC ln hn th s
thay i ca Y s to ra
s thay i ln hn
trong C, iu ny n
lt n li to ra s thay
i ln hn trong Y.
THE INFLUENCE OF MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY
114
ng dng khc ca s nhn
Hiu ng s nhn:
mi $1 tng thm trong G c th to ra nhiu
hn $1 tng ln trong tng cu.
iu ny cng ng cho cc thnh phn khc
ca GDP.
V d: gi s suy thoi nc ngoi lm xut
khu rng ca U.S. gim $10b.
Ban u, tng cu gim $10b.
s gim xung trong Y s to ra s gim st
trong C , iu ny tip tc li lm gim tng cu
v thu nhp.
THE INFLUENCE OF MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY
115
2. Hiu ng thoi lui ca u t
The Crowding-Out Effect
CSTK c mt hiu ng khc i vi AD v n c
tc dng ngc li vi hiu ng s nhn kia.
CSTK m rng lm tng r,
khin u t gim ,
iu ny lm gim s gia tng ca tng cu.
V vy, mc dch chuyn ca AD s t hn s
dch chuyn do CSTK m rng.
iu ny c gi l thoi lui u t crowding-
out effect.
THE INFLUENCE OF MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY
116
Hiu ng thoi lui u t lm vic ntn
Y
P
M
Li sut
AD
1
MS
MD
2
MD
1
P
1
r
1
r
2
Mt s tng ln $20b ca G ban u s lm AD
dch phi $20b
Nhng Y tng lm tng MD v r, khin AD gim.
AD
3
AD
2
Y
1
Y
2
$20 billion
Y
3
THE INFLUENCE OF MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY
117
S thay i trong thu
Vic ct gim thu s lm tng phn tin m HGD
em v nh.
HGD s phn ng bng cch tng tiu dng ln
mt phn ca thu nhp tng thm , khin AD
dch phi.
ln ca s dch chuyn ny s chu nh hng
ca hiu ng s nhn v hiu ng thoi.
Yu t khc: HGD coi vic ct gim thu l tm
thi hay lu di (vnh vin).
S ct gim thu vnh vin s khin C tng
khin ng AD dch chuyn nhiu hn
so vi s ct gim tm thi ca thu.
A C T I V E L E A R N I N G 3
Bi tp
118
Nn kinh t ang suy thoi.
Nu dch chuyn AD sang phi $200b s lm
chm dt suy thoi.
A. Nu MPC = .8 v ko c thoi lui,
quc hi nn tng G
ln bao nhiu chm dt suy thoi?
B. Nu tn ti hin tng thoi lui, quc hi cn
tng G nhiu hn hay t hn lng ny?

A C T I V E L E A R N I N G 3
p n
119
Nn kinh t ang suy thoi.
Nu dch chuyn AD sang phi $200b s lm
chm dt suy thoi.
A. Nu MPC = .8 v ko c thoi lui,
quc hi nn tng G
ln bao nhiu chm dt suy thoi?
s nhn = 1/(1 .8) = 5
tng G ln $40b
s lm dch chuyn AD mt on 5 x $40b =
$200b.
A C T I V E L E A R N I N G 3
p n
120
Nn kinh t ang suy thoi.
Nu dch chuyn AD sang phi $200b s lm
chm dt suy thoi.
B. Nu tn ti hin tng thoi lui, quc hi cn
tng G nhiu hn hay t hn lng ny?
Thoi lui lm gim nh hng ca G ln AD
khc ph iu ny, quc hi cn tng G ln
1 lng nhiu hn .
121
Trong ngn hn, nn kinh t m c cc thng s sau:
Tiu dng t nh 100; u t 150; xut khu 50; chi
tiu chnh ph 280; thu t nh 100; xu hng tit
kim cn bin 20%; thu sut 10%; xu hng nhp
khu cn bin 0.12; sn lng tim nng 1500 (n
v: t ng)
1. Vit hm tng chi tiu? Tnh s nhn chi tiu v
sn lng cn bng?
2. CP cn thay i chi tiu ntn a sn lng v
mc tim nng?
3. Cho bit trng thi CCNS thc t, c cu, chu k?
4. Gi s hm cu tin ca nn KT l MD=0.5Y-20i
v u t ph thuc vo li sut I=250-10i. Nu
NN ko sd CSTK m sd CSTT th lng cung tin
m NHTW cn cung ng l bao nhiu?

THE INFLUENCE OF MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY
122
Chnh sch ti kha v tng cung
Phn ln cc nh KT u tin rng hiu ng trong
ngn hn ca CSTK l thng qua tng cu.
Tuy nhin CSTK cng c th tc ng nh hng
ti tng cung.
Nhc li 1 trong 10 nguyn l trong chng 1:
Con ngi phn ng vi cc kch thch.
S ct gim thu sut s em li ng lc cho
ngi lao ng lm vic nhiu hn, do c kh
nng lm tng lng HHDV c sn xut ra hay
lm dch chuyn ng AS sang phi.
Nhng ngi tin tng hiu ng ny ln hn c
gi l Nhng ngi theo pha cung- Supply-siders.
THE INFLUENCE OF MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY
123
Chnh sch ti kha v tng cung
Chi tiu chnh ph c th nh hng ti tng
cung. V d:
Chnh ph tng chi tiu vo ng x.
ng x tt hn gip lm tng nng sut lao
ng, tng lng HHDV cung ng, lm AS dch
tri.
Hiu ng ny c th s l r rng trong di hn:
v s cn mt khong thi gian nht nh xy
dng ng x v a chng vo s dng.
THE INFLUENCE OF MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY
124
S dng chnh sch n nh nn kinh t
K t khi lut lao ng (Employment Act) 1946
ra i, n nh nn kinh t c coi l mt trong
nhng mc tiu ca chnh sch ca U.S.
Cc nh KT tranh ci v vic chnh ph nn ch
ng ntn trong vic n nh nn KT.
THE INFLUENCE OF MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY
125
Trng hp ng h Chnh sch ch ng
Keynes: Hi chng by n Animal spirits to
ra ln sng bi quan hay lc quan ca HGD v
DN , to ra s dch chuyn ca tng cu v bin
ng ca sn lng v vic lm.
Thm na, cc yu t c th to ra s bin
ng, v d,
Bng n hay suy thoi ti nc ngoi
Bng n hay sp ca TTCK
Nu cc nh hoch nh chnh sch ko lm g,
bin ng ny s lm nh hng ti h ca DN,
cng nhn v ngi tiu dng.
THE INFLUENCE OF MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY
126
Trng hp ng h Chnh sch ch ng
Nhng ngi ch trng chnh sch ch ng tin
rng chnh ph nn s dng cc chnh sch lm
gim bt cc bin ng ny:
Khi GDP gim xung di mc sn lng t nhin,
s dng CSTT v CSTK m rng ngn chn
hay gim bt suy thoi.
Khi GDP tng cao hn mc sn lng t nhin,
s dng CS tht cht ngn chn hay gim bt
lm pht bng n.

THE INFLUENCE OF MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY
127
Trng phi Keynes vi nh trng
1961:
John F Kennedy vn ng ct
gim thu kch thch tng cu.
Mt s nh t vn kinh t ca ng
l nhng ngi theo Keynes.
2001:
George W Bush vn ng ct
gim thu gip nn kinh t
phc hi trc cuc suy thoi
ang va mi bt u.
THE INFLUENCE OF MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY
128
Trng hp phn i Chnh sch ch ng
CSTT tc ng ti nn kinh t vi mt tr di:
Cc DN xy dng k hoch u t trc, do
I s mt thi gian c th phn ng li vi cc
thay i trong r.
Phn ln cc nh KT tin rng phi mt t nht 6
thng CSTT nh hng ti sn lng v
vic lm.
CSTK cng c mt tr di:
Mun thay i G v T i hi phi c s thng
qua ca quc hi.
V cc th tc cng phi mt n vi thng
hoc vi nm.
THE INFLUENCE OF MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY
129
Trng hp phn i Chnh sch ch ng
V tr ln ny, nn nhng nh ch trch chnh
sch ch ng cho rng nhng chnh sch c
khi li lm nn kinh t bin ng nhiu hn thay
v n nh n:
v n khi cc CS pht huy c tc dng th c
th lc trng thi ca nn kinh t thay i
ri.
Cc nh ch trch ny cho rng cc nh chnh
sch nn tp trung vo cc mc tiu di hn nh
tng trng kinh t v km ch lm pht.
THE INFLUENCE OF MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY
130
C ch t n nh
Automatic Stabilizers
C ch t n nh Automatic stabilizers:
nhng thay i trong CSTK m c tc dng kch
thch tng cu khi nn kinh t ri vo suy thoi,
m khng i hi bt c mt s thay i hay a
ra cc chnh sch mi no
THE INFLUENCE OF MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY
131
C ch t n nh: v d
H thng thu
Khi nn kt suy thoi, thu t ng gim,
iu ny s khuyn khch tng cu.
Chi tiu chnh ph
Trong suy thoi, nhiu ngi s c nhu cu v
tr cp cng hn (phc li, tr cp tht nghip).
Chi tiu ca cp cho cc chng trnh ny s t
ng tng, khuyn khch tng cu.
THE INFLUENCE OF MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY
132
KT LUN
Cc nh chnh sch cn phi xem xt n tt c
nh hng trong hnh ng ca h. V d,
Khi quc hi ct gim thu, h cn xem xt nh
hng ca vic lm i vi tng cu, vic
lm trong ngn hn v nh hng ti tit kim
v tng trng trong di hn.
Khi Fed gim tng trng trong cung tin, h
cn cn nhc ti khng ch nh hng trong di
hn i vi lm pht m c nh hng trong
ngn hn i vi sn lng v vic lm.
TM TT CHNG
Trong l thuyt a thch thanh khon, li sut s
iu chnh cung tin v cu tin bng nhau.
Hiu ng li sut gii thch ti sao ng tng cu
li dc xung:
s tng ln trong mc gi khin cu tin tng, lm
li sut tng, u t gim, hay gim lng cu v
HHDV.
133
TM TT CHNG
S tng ln trong cung tin s khin li sut gim,
khuyn khch u t v lm dch chuyn ng
tng cu sang bn phi.
CSTK m rng tng chi tiu hay gim thu lm
ng tng cu dch phi. CSTK tht cht lm
dch ng tng cu sang bn tri.
134
TM TT CHNG
When the government alters spending or taxes,
the resulting shift in aggregate demand can be
larger or smaller than the fiscal change:
Hiu ng s nhn c xu hng lm khuych
i nh hng ca CSTK ti tng cu.
Hiu ng thoi lui li c xu hng lm gim
nh hng ca CSTK ti tng cu.
135
TM TT CHNG
Cc nh KT bt ng v vic cc nh lm chnh
sch nn can thip ch ng ti mc no vo nn
kinh t.
Mt s cho rng CP nn s dng CSTK v TT
loi b nhng s bt n nh trong sn lng v
vic lm.
Mt s li cho rng nhng chnh sch ny s gy
bt n cho nn kinh t do chng c tr di.
136
2009 South-Western, a part of Cengage Learning, all rights reserved
C H A P T E R
Tht nghip
Economics
P R I N C I P L E S O F
N. Gregory Mankiw
PowerPoint Slides
by Nguyn Th Hin FTU galaxyftu@yahoo.com
8
Trong chng ny,
chng ta s tm li p cho cc vn :
Tht nghip c o lng ntn?
t l tht nghip t nhin l g?
Ti sao lc no cng c ngi tht nghip?
Tht nghip chu nh hng ca cng on v tin
lng ti thiu nh th no?
L thuyt tin lng hiu qu l g, v n gip gii
thch tht nghip ntn?
138
UNEMPLOYMENT
139
Thng k lc lng lao ng
c thc hin bi Bureau of Labor Statistics
(BLS), trong phng U.S. Dept. of Labor
Ti vit nam, thng k v dn s lao ng v
vic lm c tin hnh bi tng cc thng k
GSO
Da trn iu tra 60,000 HGD
Da trn dn s trng thnh (16 tui hoc
hn)
UNEMPLOYMENT
140
Thngk lc lng lao ng
BLS chia dn s thnh 3 nhm:
C vic Employed: nhng ngi c tr lng,
hoc ngi lm vic trong cc cng vic kinh
doanh ca gia nh, t tr cng
Tht nghip Unemployed: ngi ko c vic lm
d tm vic trong sut 4 tun qua
Khng thuc lc lng lao ng Not in the
labor force: nhng ngi cn li
Lc lng lao ng labor force l tng s lao ng,
bao gm ngi c vic v nhng ngi khng c vic
UNEMPLOYMENT
141
T l tham gia
LLL
LLL
Ds trng thnh
= 100 x
Thngk lc lng lao ng
T l tham gia LLL Labor force participation rate:
% dn s trng thnh thuc LLL
T l tht nghip Unemployment rate (u-rate):
% lc lng lao ng khng c vic lm
u-rate
S tht nghip
LLL
= 100 x
A C T I V E L E A R N I N G 1
Tnh ton thng k lao ng
142
Tnh LLLD, u-rate, dn s trng thnh v t l
tham gia lc lng lao ng da trn s liu sau:
Dn s trng thnh ca U.S
theo nhm, June 2008
S c vic 145.9 million
S tht nghip 8.5 million
Ko thuc LLL 79.2 million
LLL = c vic + tht nghip
= 145.9 + 8.5
= 154.4 million
U-rate = 100 x (tht nghip)/(LLL)
= 100 x 8.5/154.4
= 5.5%
A C T I V E L E A R N I N G 1
p n
143
Dn s = LLL + Ko thuc LLL
= 154.4 + 79.2
= 233.6
T l tgia LLL= 100 x (LLL)/(ds trng thnh)
= 100 x 154.4/233.6
= 66.1%
A C T I V E L E A R N I N G 1
p n
144
UNEMPLOYMENT
145
Thng k TTL cho cc nhm
BLS pht hnh cc thng k ny cho cc nhm
dn s.
These data reveal widely different labor market
experiences for different groups.
UNEMPLOYMENT
146
Thng k TTL cho ngi Da trng & Da en,
June 2008
Adults (trn 20 tui)
TLTN TLTGLLL
Da trng, nam 4.5% 76.1%
Da trng, n 4.2 60.4
Da en, nam 9.3 71.5
Da en, n 7.4 64.3
UNEMPLOYMENT
147
Thng k TTL cho ngi Da trng & Da en,
June 2008
Thanh nin (16-19 tui)
TLTN TLTGLLL
Da trng 16.6 43.9
Da en 29.6 27.9
UNEMPLOYMENT
148
Thng k th trng lao ng cho cc nhm khc,
June 2008
Tt c tui
TLTN TLTGLLL
Chu 4.5 67.4
Ngi Hispanic 7.7 69.0
UNEMPLOYMENT
149
Tk TT lao ng theo cp gio dc ,
June 2008
Trng thnh ( trn 25t)
TLTN TLTGLLL
Cha TN trung
hc
8.7% 45.9%
TN trung hc 5.1 62.8
Cao ng hoc
tng ng
4.2 71.9
i hc hoc
trn i hc
2.3 78.1
UNEMPLOYMENT
150
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
TLTGLLL theo gii tnh, 1950-2007
Nam
N
A C T I V E L E A R N I N G 2
Hn ch ca t l TN
151
Trong mi trng hp, xc nh xem nh xem iu g
s xy ra vi t l tht nghip? TLTN c cho bn m t
ng v nhng g ang din ra trn TTL ko?
A. Sue mt vic v bt u tm kim mt cv mi.
B. Jon, th c kh, tht nghip t nm trc do nh
my anh ta ng ca, tr nn nn lng v quyt nh
thi khng i tm vic na.
C. Sam, ngi kim tin chnh trong g 5 ngi, va mt
cng vic lm nghin cu khoa hc ca mnh vi mc
lng $80,000. Ngay lp tc anh y lm vic part-time
ti McDonalds cho ti khi anh y tm li c 1 cng
vic ng lnh vc ca anh y.
A C T I V E L E A R N I N G 2
p n
152
A. Sue mt vic v bt u tm kim mt cv mi.

TLTN tng
TLTN tng cho bn hnh dung rng TTL ang xu
i, v TH ny th ng l nh vy.
A C T I V E L E A R N I N G 2
p n
153
B. Jon, tht nghip t nm trc, tr nn ko cn
mun lm vic v qnh thi khng i tm vic na.
Ngi lao ng nn lng (Discouraged workers)- TN
t nguyn
Mun lm vic nhng thi ko mun i tm vic na
Nn xp vo nhm Ko thuc LLL hn l tht
nghip
TLTN gim bi Jon gi ko c tnh vo tht nghip na.
S gim xung trong TLTN cho mi ngi hnh dung rng
TTL ang tt ln, trong khi thc t th ko phi vy.
A C T I V E L E A R N I N G 2
p n
154
C. Sam mt cv $80,000, v lm vic part-time
McDonalds cho ti khi anh ta tm c vic lm
tt hn.
TLTN ko i bi mt ngi u c xp vo c vic
bt k anh ta lm vic full time hay part time.
Mc d thc t y ang xu i, n TLTN ko th hin
c iu .
UNEMPLOYMENT
155
TLTN o c g thc t Measure?
T l TN ko phi l 1 ch s hon ho th hin s
ko c vic lm hay mc khe mnh ca th
trng lng:
N ko bao gm nhng ngi TN t nguyn
(ngi l nn lng).
N ko phn bit c vic lm chnh v vic
lm thm.
C mt s ngi ko report tnh trng cng vic
ca h ti iu tra vic lm.
Mc d vy, TLTN vn l 1 phong th biu hu
ch cho th trng lao ng v nn kinh t.
UNEMPLOYMENT
156
Qung thi gian tht nghip
Phn ln cc phin TN l ngn:
Thng thng 1/3 s ca tht nghip l di 5
tun, 2/3 l di 14 tun.
Ch c 20% s ca tht nghip l trn 6 thng.
Tuy nhin, phn ln tht nghip c quan st l
tht nghip di hn.
Nhm nh tht nghip di hn ny c quay
vng thp, v vy n chim phn ln cc ca tht
nghip c quan st theo thi gian.
Hiu c iu ny s gip cc nh lm chnh sch
thit lp ra nhng chnh sch tt hn cho vn
tht nghip
UNEMPLOYMENT
157
TN chu k v TN t nhin
Lc no cng tn ti tht nghip d cho TLTN dao
ng theo thi gian.
T l t nhin ca tht nghip
L t l thng thng ca TN m TN t nhin
dao ng xoay xung quanh gi tr ny.
Tht nghip chu k Cyclical unemployment
Th hin s chch khi mc t nhin ca mc
tht nghip
i cng vi bin ng kinh t (hay chu k kinh
doanh) m mnh s hc trong cc chng sau
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Tht nghip ca M, 1960-2007
T l t nhin
ca TN
T l TN
p
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

o
f

l
a
b
o
r

f
o
r
c
e

UNEMPLOYMENT
159
Gii thch t l t nhin: tng qut
Ngay c khi nn kinh t vn hnh tt, th vn tn ti
tht nghip, bao gm:
TN tm thi Frictional unemployment
Xut hin khi ngi l dnh thi gian tm kim
cng vic ph hp nht vi nng lc v s thch
ca mnh
Ngn hn cho phn ln lao ng
TN c cu structural unemployment
Xut hin khi c t vic hn s lao ng
Thng l di hn
UNEMPLOYMENT
160
Tm vic
Mi ngi lao ng u kh nng v s thch khc
nhau, mi cng vic u cng c cc yu cu khc
nhau.
Tm vic Job search qu trnh gp g gia ngi
lao ng v cng vic ph hp.
Chuyn dch c cu Sectoral shifts l s thay i
trong c cu cu lao ng gia cc ngnh ngh v
gia cc khu vc.
S dch chuyn ny s lm mt s lao ng mt vic,
v h s phi tm cng vic mi ph hp vi nng lc
v s thch ca h.
Bi v nn kinh t lun lun thay i nn mt s tht
nghip tm thi l ko th trnh khi
UNEMPLOYMENT
161
Chnh sch cng v Tm vic
Cc t chc gii thiu- mi gii vic lm
cung cp thng tin tuyn dng gip ngi lng
nhanh chng tm c vic lm ph hp hn.
Cc chng trnh o to cng
gip trang b cho nhng ngi lao ng tht
nghip trong cc ngnh ngh b thu hp c c
nhng k nng m cc ngnh ngh ang m
rng c nhu cu.
UNEMPLOYMENT
162
Bo himtht nghip
Bo him tht nghip Unemployment
insurance (UI):
chng trnh ca chnh ph gip ngi lao ng
gi c 1 phn thu nhp ca mnh khi h b
tht nghip
UI lm tng TN c cu.
hiu ti sao, nhc li 1 trong 10 nguyn l:
Con ngi phn ng vi cc kch thch.
UI s b ct khi ngi lao ng tm c vic,
v vy n lm gim ng c tm v lm mt
cng vic mi.
UNEMPLOYMENT
163
Bo him tht nghip
Tc dng ca UI:
Gim mc khng chc chn ca thu nhp
Cho ngi tht nghip c nhiu thi gian hn
tm vic, kt qu l s c c mt cng vic
ph hp hn, gip nng cao nng sut lao ng
UNEMPLOYMENT
164
Gii thch tht nghip c cu
TN c cu xy ra khi
khng c vic
lm.
W
L
D
S
W
E
Lng
thc
t
W
1
TN
Xy ra khi tin lng
c gi trn mc
tin lng cn bng.
C 3 l do cho iu
ny
UNEMPLOYMENT
165
1. Lut tin lng ti thiu
Minimum-Wage Laws
Tin lng ti thiu c th ln hn tin lng
cn bng ti nhng th trng lao ng gin n
t k nng v kinh nghim.
Tuy nghin nhm ny ch l mt b phn nh
trong LLL, v vy tin lng ti thiu ko th gii
thch c ht cc tht nghip.

UNEMPLOYMENT
166
2. Cng on -Unions
Cng on: l mt t chc ca ngi lao ng
thng lng vi gii ch v tin lng, ch
i ng v iu kin lm vic
Cng on pht huy sc mnh ca mnh
thng lng i mc tin lng cao hn cho
ngi lao ng.
Nhng lao ng c cng on thng c mc
lng cao hn 20% v c hng nhiu u
i hn so vi cc lao ng khng c cng on
lm cng loi cng vic.
UNEMPLOYMENT
167
2. Cng on - Unions
Khi cng on tng lng ln trn mc cn
bng, lng cu lao ng gim, v kt qu l
TN xy ra.
Ngi trong cuc - Insiders nhng ngi
vn c tuyn dng, h s c li
Ngi ngoi cuc Outsiders nhng ngi b
mt vic s chu thit thi
Mt s ngi ngoi cuc s tm n cc TTL
khng c cng on, iu ny lm tng cung lao
ng v gim mc lng trn cc th trng
ny.
UNEMPLOYMENT
168
2. Cng on - Unions
Vy th cng on l tt hay xu? Cc nh kinh t ko
thng nht vi nhau v iu ny.
Ch trch:
Cng on l 1 cartel. H tng lng ln trn mc
cn bng, to ra TN v lm gim tin lng cc
TTL ko c cng on.
ng h:
Cng on lm gim sc mnh th trng ca cc
cng ty ln, khin DN p ng quan tm ca
ngi lao ng hn.
UNEMPLOYMENT
169
3. Tin lng hiu qu
Efficiency Wages
L thuyt tin lng hiu qu:
Doanh nghip t nguyn tr lng mc trn
cn bng thc y nng sut ca ngi lao
ng.
Nhng phin bn khc nhau ca l thuyt ny
nhc ti cc l do khc nhau ti sao DN li tr
lng cao.
UNEMPLOYMENT
170
3. Tin lng hqu Efficiency Wages
1. Sc khe ca L Worker health
Ti cc nc km pht trin, ngho dinh dng
l mt vn chung. Tr lng cao hn cho
php ngi lao ng n tt hn, khin h khe
hn v c nng sut cao hn.
2. Thay th cng nhnWorker turnover
Tuyn dng v o to lao ng mi l rt tn
km.
Tr lng cao hn s to ra ng c gip
ngi lao ng gn b vi DN v li hn, lm
gim tc thay th cng nhn.
4 l do ti sao DN tr mc lng hiu qu:
UNEMPLOYMENT
171
3. Tin lng hqu Efficiency Wages
3. Cht lng ca ngi lao ng Worker quality
a ra mc lng cao hn s thu ht c nhng ngi
lao ng c cht lng hn ti lm, iu ny s lm tng
cht lng ca i ng lao ng ca DN.
4. S n lc ca ngi lao ng Worker effort
Wngi lao ng c th lm vic chm ch hoc li
bing v che y iu . Nhng ngi li bing v che
y s b sa thi nu s tht c phanh phui. ui vic
c phi l bin php ngn chn li bing hay ko? iu
ny ph thuc vo mc kh khn trong tm kim cng
vic mi. Nu mc lng trn th trng trn mc cn
bng, s ko c vic lm, do ngi lao ng s c
ng lc lm vic nhiu hn l li bing.
4 l do ti sao DN tr mc lng hiu qu:
A C T I V E L E A R N I N G 3
vn dng
172
TH no sau y s lm gim TN tm thi nhiu
nht?
A. Chnh ph loi b tin lng ti thiu.
B. Cp tng bo him tht nghip.
C. Lut mi xa b cng on.
D. Nhiu ngi lao ng ng thng tin ca h trn
Monster.com, v nhiu Dn hn s dng
Monster.com tm kim ngi l ph hp.
E. S dch chuyn ngnh tr nn thng xuyn hn.
A C T I V E L E A R N I N G 3
p n
173
A. Chnh ph loi b tin lng ti thiu
C. Lut mi xa b cng on.
Nhng iu ny s lm gim tht nghip c cu
ch khng phi tht nghip tm thi.
TH no sau y s lm gim TN tm thi nhiu
nht?
A C T I V E L E A R N I N G 3
p n
174
TH no sau y s lm gim TN tm thi nhiu
nht?

B. Cp tng bo him tht nghip.
E. S dch chuyn ngnh tr nn thng xuyn hn.
Nhng iu ny s lm tng tht nghip tm thi
ch ko phi gim.
A C T I V E L E A R N I N G 3
p n
175
TH no sau y s lm gim TN tm thi nhiu
nht?

D. Nhiu ngi lao ng ng thng tin ca h trn
Monster.com, v nhiu Dn hn s dng
Monster.com tm kim ngi l ph hp.
C kh nng y nhanh qu trnh ngi
v vic tm nhau, iu ny s lm gim
tht nghip tm thi.
UNEMPLOYMENT
176
Gii thch t l TN t nhin ca lao
ng: Tm tt
T l tht nghip t nhin ca lao ng bao gm
tht nghip tm thi frictional unemployment
Cn thi gian tm kim cng vic thch hp
Xy ra khi khng c vic lm
tht nghip c cu structural unemployment
Khi tin lng trn mc cn bng, ko c vic lm
Do tin lng ti thiu, cng on v tin lng ti
thiu
Trong chng tip theo, chng ta s hc v tht nghip
chu k cyclical unemployment, dao ng trong ngn hn
ca tht nghip i cng vi chu k kinh doanh.
TM TT CHNG
T l TN l phn trm nhng ngi ko c vic lm
trong tng s nhng ngi mong mun lm vic.
T l TN v TLTGLLL cng c nhiu khc bit
gia cc nhm dn s.
T l tht nghip t nhin l mc tht nghip trung
bnh m tht nghip thc t xoay quanh n. Tht
nghip chu k l s chch ra ca TN khi mc TN t
nhin, lin quan ti nhng bin ng trong ngn hn
ca nn kinh t.
177
TM TT CHNG
Tht nghip t nhin bao gm tht nghip tm thi
v tht nghip c cu.
Tht nghip tm thi xy ra khi ngi lao ng cn
thi gian tm kim cng vic mi.
Tht nghip c cu xy ra khi tin lng trn mc
cn bng khin d cung lao ng.
3 nguyn nhn ca tin lng trn mc cn bng
l: lut tin lng ti thiu, cng on, tin lng
hiu qu.
178
2009 South-Western, a part of Cengage Learning, all rights reserved
C H A P T E R
Quan h nh i trong ngn hn
gia lm pht v tht nghip
Economics
P R I N C I P L E S O F
N. Gregory Mankiw
PowerPoint Slides
by Nguyn Th Hin FTU galaxyftu@yahoo.com
8
Trong chng ny, chng ta s
tm li p cho nhng cu hi sau:
Lm pht v tht nghip quan h vi nhau trong
ngn hn ntn? Trong di hn ntn?
Nhn t no s nh hng n mi quan h ny?
Chi ph trong ngn hn ca gim lm pht l g?
Ti sao c TN v lm pht ca M u thp vo
1990s?
180
THE SHORT-RUN TRADE-OFF
181
Gii thiu
Trong di hn, lm pht v tht nghip l khng
c quan h vi nhau:
T l lm pht ph thuc ch yu vo tc
tng trng cung tin.
Tht nghip (mc TN t nhin) ph thuc vo
tin lng ti thiu, sc mnh th trng ca
cng on, v qu trnh tm kim vic.
Mt trong mi nguyn l:
Trong ngn hn, x hi i mt vi s
nh i gia lm pht v tht nghip.
THE SHORT-RUN TRADE-OFF
182
ng Phillips
Phillips curve: th hin nh i ngn hn gia
lm pht v tht nghip
1958: A.W. Phillips ch ra rng tc tng tin
lng danh ngha c quan h t l nghch vi
tht nghip U.K.
1960: Paul Samuelson & Robert Solow tm ra
mi quan h ngc chiu gia lm pht v tht
nghip M v t tn n l ng Phillips.
THE SHORT-RUN TRADE-OFF
183
Xy dng ng Phillips
Gi s P = 100 trong nm nay.
Hnh sau th hin 2 kt cc c th xy ra trong
nm ti:
A. Tng cu thp,
P tng t (hay., lm pht thp),
sn lng thp, tht nghip cao.
B. Tng cu cao,
P tng mnh (hay., lm pht cao),
sn lng cao, tht nghip thp.

THE SHORT-RUN TRADE-OFF
184
Xy dng ng Phillips
TN
Lm
pht
PC
A. Tng cu thp, lm pht thp, tht nghip ca
B. Tng cu cao, lm pht cao, TN thp
Y
P
SRAS

AD
1
AD
2
Y
1
103

A

105

Y
2
B

6%

3%

A

4%

5%

B

THE SHORT-RUN TRADE-OFF
185
ng Phillips: Menu no cho chnh sch?
V CSTK v CSTT c tc ng ti Tng cu, nn
ng Phillips s cho cc nh lm chnh sch
menu c cc s la chn:
Tht nghip thp vi lm pht cao
Lm pht thp tht nghip cao
Hoc mt la chn bt k gia
1960s: s liu ca M ph hp vi ng PC.
Nhiu ngi tin rng ng PC l n nh v ng
tin cy.
THE SHORT-RUN TRADE-OFF
186
Bng chng cho ng PC?
Tl lm pht
(% nm)
Tl tht nghip
(%)
0
2
4
6
8
10
0 2 4 6 8 10
Trong sut1960s,
cc nh hoch nh
CS U.S. la
chn gim TN vi
ci gi l lm pht
cao hn
1961
63
65
62
64
66
67
68
THE SHORT-RUN TRADE-OFF
187
ng Phillips di hn thng ng
1968: Milton Friedman v Edmund Phelps lp lun
rng s nh i ny ch l tm thi.
Gi thit t l TN t nhin Natural-rate
hypothesis: khng nh TLTN cui cng s tr v
mc thng thng hay t nhin ca n, bt k
lm pht l th no.
Da trn s phn i c in v ng LRAS
thng ng.
ng Phillips di hn thng ng
TLTN
Lm
pht
Trong di hn, s tng trng nhiu hn trong
cung tin s ch gy l lm pht cao hn.
Y
P
LRAS

AD
1
AD
2
Sn lng
t nhin
TL tht nghip
t nhin
P
1
P
2
LRPC

Lm
pht
thp

Lm
pht
cao

188
THE SHORT-RUN TRADE-OFF
189
i chiu l thuyt vi thc t
Thc t (t nhng nm 60):
PC dc xung.
L thuyt (Friedman v Phelps):
PC thng ng trong di hn.
gn kt l thuyt vi thc t, Friedman v
Phelps gii thiu mt bin mi: lm pht k
vng expected inflation th hin d on ca
mi ngi v vic mc gi s thay i ntn.
THE SHORT-RUN TRADE-OFF
190
Phng trnh ng Phillips
Trong ngn hn
Fed c th gim t l TN xung di mc t nhin
bng cch lm lm pht cao hn mc mi ngi d
on.
Trong di hn
K vng s bng vi thc t,
T l TN s tr v mc t nhin bt k lm pht l
cao hay thp.
T l
TNghip
T l TN
t nhin
=
a
Lpht
thc t
Lm pht
k vong

THE SHORT-RUN TRADE-OFF
191
How Expected Inflation Shifts the PC
Initially, expected &
actual inflation = 3%,
unemployment =
natural rate (6%).
Fed makes inflation
2% higher than expected,
u-rate falls to 4%.
In the long run,
expected inflation
increases to 5%,
PC shifts upward,
unemployment returns to
its natural rate.
u-rate
inflation
PC
1
LRPC

6%
3%
PC
2
4%
5%
A

B
C

T l tht nghip t nhin = 5%
lm pht k vng = 2%
trong phng trnh PC, a = 0.5
A. V ng Phillips di hn.
B. Tm t l tht nghip cho mi gi tr thc t sau
ca lm pht: 0%, 6%. V ng PC ngn hn.
C. Gi s lm pht k vng tng ln thnh 4%.
Lm li cu B.
D. Thay vo , gi s t l TN t nhin li gim
xung 4%. V ng Phillips di hn,
lm li cu B.
A C T I V E L E A R N I N G 1
Mt v d tnh ton
192
A C T I V E L E A R N I N G 1
p n
193
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
unemployment rate
i
n
f
l
a
t
i
o
n

r
a
t
e
LRPC
A
S tng ln
trong lm
pht k vng
lm ng
PC dch phi
PC
D
LRPC
D
PC
B
PC
C
S gim
xung trong
TLTN t
nhin khin
c 2 ng
dch sang tri
THE SHORT-RUN TRADE-OFF
194
0
2
4
6
8
10
0 2 4 6 8 10
Nhng on gy ca ng Phillips
TL lm pht
(% nm)
T l tht nghip
(%)
u nhng nm 1970:
TN tng
mc d lm pht cao hn.
Gthch ca
Friedman &
Phelps: k
vng c t
cao hn vi
thc t.
0
2
4
6
8
10
0 2 4 6 8 10
1961
63
65
62
64
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
THE SHORT-RUN TRADE-OFF
195
1 nguyn nhn na ca s dch
chuyn PC : Sc cung
Sc cung Supply shock:
mt s kin trc tip lm thay i chi ph v mc
gi ca DN, lm ng AS v ng PC dch
chuyn
V d: s gia tng nhiu trong gi du
THE SHORT-RUN TRADE-OFF
196
C sc cung bt li khin PC dch chuyn ntn
TLTN
Lm
pht
SRAS dch tri, gi tng, sn lng & vic lm gim.
C lm pht v TN u tng khi PC dch ln trn
Y
P
SRAS
1
AD
PC
1
PC
2
A

B

SRAS
2
A

Y
1
P
1
Y
2
B

P
2
THE SHORT-RUN TRADE-OFF
197
Sc gi du nhng nm 1970
Fed la chn thch nghi vi c
sc u tin nm 1973
vi s tng cung tin nhanh
hn.
Kt qu:
lm pht k vng cao hn, li
khin cho ng PC tip tc
dch chuyn
1979:
gi du li tng tip, lm s
la chn ca Fed kh khn
hn.
38.00 1/1981
32.50 1/1980
14.85 1/1979
10.11 1/1974
$ 3.56 1/1973
Gi du mi barrel
THE SHORT-RUN TRADE-OFF
198
Sc gi du nhng nm 1970
T l lm
pht
(% per year)
TL tht nghip
(%)
0
2
4
6
8
10
0 2 4 6 8 10
Sc cung &
s tng ln
trong lm
pht k
vng khin
s nh i
ca PC kh
khn hn.
1972
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
THE SHORT-RUN TRADE-OFF
199
Chi ph ca vic ct gim Inflation
Ct gim lm pht Disinflation: s ct gim t
l lm pht xung thp
gim lm pht,
Fed phi gim tc tng cung tin, iu ny
lm tng cu gim.
Ngn hn:
Sn lng gim v tht nghip tng.
Di hn:
Sn lng & tht nghip tr v mc t nhin.
THE SHORT-RUN TRADE-OFF
200
Chnh sch tin t ct gim lm pht
CSTT tht cht lm nn
kinh t di chuyn t im
A n im B.
Theo thi gian,
lm pht k vng gim,
PC dch xung.
Trong di hn,
im C:
t l tht nghip t nhin,
lm pht thp hn.
TLTN
Lm
pht
LRPC

PC
1
T l TN t
nhin
A

PC
2
C

B

THE SHORT-RUN TRADE-OFF
201
Chi ph ca vic ct gim lm pht
Ct gim lm pht i hi phi chu ng mt giai
on tht nghip cao v sn lng thp.
T l hi sinh Sacrifice ratio:
phn trm sn lng b mt khi ct gim 1% lm
pht
T l hi sinh c c tnh l: 5
gim t l lm pht 1%,
phi hi sinh 5% sn lng ca nm.
Chng ta cng c th chuyn mc hi sinh sang
cc nm sau, vd.
gim lm pht 6%, chng ta c th
Hi sinh 30% GDP trong 1 nm
Hi sinh 10% GDP trong 3 nm
THE SHORT-RUN TRADE-OFF
202
K vng hp l, Ct gim lm pht khng mt
chi ph?
K vng hp l Rational expectations: l l
thuyt m theo mi ngi s s dng nhng
thng tin m h c mt cch ti u d on
tng lai, nhng thng tin ny bao gm c ttin
v chnh sch ca chnh ph
Nhng ngi ng h u tin:
Robert Lucas, Thomas Sargent, Robert Barro
Khng nh rng ct gim lm pht c th s tn
t chi ph hn
THE SHORT-RUN TRADE-OFF
203
K vng hp l, Ct gim lm pht khng mt
chi ph?
Gi s Fed thuyt phc vi mi ngi rng n
s s ct gim lm pht.
Khi , lm pht k vng s gim,
ng PC ngn hn dch xung.
Kt qu:
Ct gim lm pht gy ra it tht nghp hn so
vi t l hi sinh m c d on trn.
THE SHORT-RUN TRADE-OFF
204
Ct gim lm pht caVolcker
Thng c Fed Paul Volcker
Nhn chc vo cui 1979 trong tnh hnh lm pht
v tht nghip cao
Thay i CS ca Fed thnh ct gim lm pht
(disinflation)
1981-1984:
CSTK l m rng,
v vy CS ca Fed phi tht cht km ch lm
pht.
Thnh cng: Lm pht gim t 10% xung 4%,
nhng di ci gi l tht nghip cao
THE SHORT-RUN TRADE-OFF
205
Ct gim lm pht caVolcker
TL lm pht
(% nm)
TLTN (%)
0
2
4
6
8
10
0 2 4 6 8 10
Ct gim lm pht tr nn qu tn
km
TNTL gn
10% vo
1982-83
1979
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
THE SHORT-RUN TRADE-OFF
206
Thi k ca Greenspan
1986: gi du gim 50%.
1989-90:
tht nghip gim, lm pht tng.
Fed tng li sut, gy ra 1
cuc suy thoi nh.
1990s:
TN v lm pht gim.
2001: c sc gim cu
to ra cuc suy thoi u tin trong thp k.
Cc nh hoch nh CS phn ng li bng CSTT v
TK m rng.
Alan Greenspan
Chair of FOMC,
Aug 1987 Jan 2006
THE SHORT-RUN TRADE-OFF
207
Thi k ca Greenspan
TL lm pht
(% nm)
TL tht nghip
(%)
0
2
4
6
8
10
0 2 4 6 8 10
Lm pht v tht nghip u
kh thp trong sut giai on
ca Alan Greenspan.
1987
90
92
2000
94
96
98
06
02
05
THE SHORT-RUN TRADE-OFF
208
Nhng thch thc dnh cho Ben
Bernanke
Sc cu:
Khng hong cho vay di chun, gi nh gim, vic
tch thu ti sn lan rng, cc t chc ti chnh gp rc
ri.
Sc cung:
Gi ca n v cc sn phm nng nghip tng, vd.,
1 gi ng: $2.10 vo 2005-06, $5.76 vo 5/2008
Gi du tng
1 barrel: $35 vo 2/2004, $134 vo 6/2008
T 6/2007 n 6/2008,
TLTN tng t 4.6% ln 5.5%
Lm pht theo CPI 2.6% ln 4.9%
THE SHORT-RUN TRADE-OFF
209
KT LUN
Cc l thuyt trong chng ny n t mt vi
nh kinh t xut sc ca th k 20.
H dy chng ta rng lm pht v tht nghip
Khng c quan h trong di hn
Quan h ngc chiu trong ngn hn
B nh hng bi k vng,
yu t c vai tr quan trng trong iu chnh ca
nn kinh t t ngn hn n di hn.
TM TT CHNG
ng Phillips m t s nh i ngn hn gia
lm pht v tht nghip.
Trong di hn, th ko c s nh i no:
lm pht c quyt nh bi cung tin,
trong khi TN th bng vi t l TN t nhin.
Sc cung v s thay i trong lm pht k vng
lm dch chuyn ng PC, khin s nh i tr
nn kh khn hoc d dng hn.
210
TM TT CHNG
Fed c th gim lm pht bng cch tht cht
cung tin, khin nn kinh t di chuyn dc ng
PC ngn hn v lm tng tht nghip. Trong di
hn, th, k vng c iu chnh v tht nghip
tr v mc TN t nhin.
Mt s nh kinh t khng nh mt s cam kt
gim lm pht ng tin cy ca NHTW c th lm
gim chi ph ca vic ct gim lm pht bng cch
to ra cc iu chnh nhanh chng trong k vng.
211