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2004

2004

2002

2000

: Eurostat

0,5

1,5

2,5

1992

2002

3,5

2010

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

/ . (%)

1990

1994

11: %

1996

1998

11: %

2000

2002

: Eurostat

2004

: Eurostat,

2006

-2

-1,5

Ultra Ponzi

Ponzi

Speculative

11: %

2008

-1

-0,5

0,5

1,5

11: ,
1990-2012

11:

2012
2011

2012

2010

2008

2009

2006

2007

1999

2000

1997

1998

1996
1995

/ (%)

2012

2010

2008

2006

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

/ . (%)

63

64

(STUDIES) / 30
2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

: Eurostat

/ . (%)

0,5

1,5

2,5

2010
2010

2002

2000

1998

: Eurostat

2012

2004

3,5

1992

2006

2008

2010

2012

/ . (%)

1990

1994

12: %

1996

1998

12: %

2000

: Eurostat

2002

: Eurostat,

2004

Ultra Ponzi

Ponzi

12: %

2006

-2,5

-2

-1,5

-1

-0,5

0,5

12: ,
1990-2012

2008

12:

2012

2008

2006

2004

1996

1994
1992

1990

/ (%)

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

2004

2010
2010

2002

2000

1998

2004

2002

2000

1998

: Eurostat

2012

: Eurostat

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

1992

2006

0,2

2008

0,4

2010

0,6

2012

0,8

/ . (%)

1990

1,2

1994

13: %

1996

0,6

1998

13: %

2000

1,4

2002

: Eurostat

2004

: Eurostat,

0,2

0,4

0,6

2006

Ultra Ponzi

Ponzi

Speculative

0,8

1,2

13: %

2008

22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8

13: ,
1990-2012

13:

2012

2008

2006

2004

1996

1994
1992

1990

/ (%)

2012

2010

2008

2006

1996

1994

1992

1990

/ . (%)

65

66

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2008
2009

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2000

2001

1999

1998

1996

1997

1995

: Eurostat

0,2

2010

2010

2005
2003
2002

1997

1997

1996

1996

1995

1995

: Eurostat

2004

2011

2010

0,2

2012

0,4

/ . (%)

0,6

1998

0,8

2000

0,4

1999

2001

1,2

2002

1,4

2012

2011

14: %

2003

0,6

2005

14: %

2004

1,6

2007

: Eurostat

2006

: Eurostat,

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,2

1,4

2008

Ultra Ponzi

Ponzi

Speculative

1,6

14: %

2009

-15

-10

-5

10

15

20

14: ,
1990-2012

14:

2012

2011

2008

2009

2006

2007

2001

1999

2000

1998

/ (%)

2011

2012

2010

2008

2009

2006
2007

2004

2005

2003

2001

2002

1999

2000

1997

1998

1996

1995

/ . (%)

2010

2010

2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998

2000
1999
1998
1997
1996

2000
1999

1996
1995

-4

-2

-1

-3

Ultra Ponzi

1998
1997

0,5

2002

: Eurostat

2003
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995

/ . (%)

2001

2004

2002

2005

2003

2007
2006

2005
2004

2009
2008

2007
2006

2010

2008

2009

15: %

2010

2012
2011

: Eurostat,

2012

Ponzi

1,5

/ (%)

2011

Speculative

2,5

1995

1995

15: ,
1990-2012
2

2002
2001

1997

2003

1996

/ . (%)

15:

2005
2004

: Eurostat

2005

2007
2006

2007
2006

2009
2008

: Eurostat

2008

15: %

2012
2011

2009

15: %

2012
2011

67

68

(STUDIES) / 30

1999

1997

1995

1993

: Eurostat

3
2

0,5

1,5

2010
2010

2004

2005
2003
2002

1997

: Eurostat

2012

2011

2001

2,5

1996

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

/ . (%)

1995

1998

2000

3,5

1999

2001

2002

16: %

2003

4,5

2005

16: %

2004

: Eurostat

2007

: Eurostat,

2
2006

10

Ultra Ponzi

10

12

16: %

2008

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

16: ,
1990-2012

2009

16:

2012

2011

2008

2009

2006

2007

2001

1999

2000

1997

1998

1996
1995

/ (%)

2011

2012

2010

2008

2009

2006
2007

2005

2004

2003

2001

2002

1999

2000

1997

1998

1995

1996

/ . (%)

2010

2010

2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998

0,5

1,5

2,5

3,5

: Eurostat

1998
1997
1996
1995

10

2000
1999

/ . (%)

1995

2002
2001

1996

-3

Ultra Ponzi
-2,5

1998
1997

2003

2000
1999

2005
2004

2001

2007
2006

2002

2009
2008

2003

2010

2005
2004

2012
2011

2007
2006

2008

-2

1997

17: %

2009

-1,5

1999
1998

: Eurostat,

2010

-1

2000

/ (%)

2012

-0,5

0,5

2002
2001

1995

2011

Ponzi

17: ,
1990-2012

2003

1995

2005
2004

1996

/ . (%)

17:

2007
2006

1996

10

12

1997

2009
2008

: Eurostat

2009

17: %

2012
2011

: Eurostat

17: %

2012
2011

69

70

(STUDIES) / 30
2007

2004
2005

2003

2002

2001

1999

2000

1997

1998

1996

1995

0,5
2010

2004

2005
2003
2002

1997

2006

2004
2005

2003

2002

: Eurostat

2010

: Eurostat

2
1,5

2012

2011

2006

1996

2008

2009

2010

2012

2011

/ . (%)

1995

2,5

1998

2000

3,5

1999

2001

2002

18: %

2003

2005

18: %

2004

: Eurostat

2007

: Eurostat,

10

2006

10

Ultra Ponzi

Ponzi

Speculative

12

18: %

2008

-2

-1,5

-1

-0,5

0,5

1,5

2,5

18: ,
1990-2012

2009

18:

2012

2011

2008

2009

2006

2007

2001

1999

2000

1997

1998

1996
1995

/ (%)

2011

2012

2010

2008

2009

2007

2001

1999

2000

1997

1998

1996

1995

/ . (%)

5.3. :


-

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,

71

 ,
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(7)

a , Kx1
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(9)

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ith , .

. , 17 ( ),
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72

(STUDIES) / 30

Specification Test
Pool (Random).
Pool Breush Pagan LM Test:
2

H 0 : a = 0
2

LM =

H 1: a 0

2
T 2 i 2
NT

1

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i

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x2 (3,841).
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(Fixed effects) Pool. O Chow Test,

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,

73

 Hausman test
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(13)

(14)

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74

(STUDIES) / 30

. , ,
, .
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M
GGDP

OLS

Constant

2.84

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FF

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75

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, . (2012). .
, : .

, . , . (2011).
, : .

82

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, . , . (2011). . ;. , , /12.

, . (2012).
, , , /21.
, . (2012). ; , : .

83

-1

GGDP: Eurostat, GDP and Main Components - Current Prices (2013)

FF: i) Eurostat, Government Revenue, Expenditure and Main Aggregates (2013)

ii) Eurostat, Government Deficit/Surplus, Debt and Associated Data (2013)

85

ISBN: 978-960-9571-49-4