$52.

00
$54.00
$56.00
$58.00
$60.00
$62.00
$64.00
$66.00
$68.00
9,000.00
9,500.00
10,000.00
10,500.00
11,000.00
11,500.00
12,000.00
12,500.00
13,000.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA ^DJI
Buffalo Wild Wings ^BWLD
$52.00
$54.00
$56.00
$58.00
$60.00
$62.00
$64.00
$66.00
$68.00
2,200.00
2,300.00
2,400.00
2,500.00
2,600.00
2,700.00
2,800.00
NASDAQ (IXIC)
NASDAQ ^IXIC
Buffalo Wild Wings ^BWLD
$52.00
$54.00
$56.00
$58.00
$60.00
$62.00
$64.00
$66.00
$68.00
1,050.00
1,100.00
1,150.00
1,200.00
1,250.00
1,300.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Standard and Poor's 500 (GSPC)
S&P500 ^GSPC
Buffalo Wild Wings ^BWLD
$56.00
$58.00
$60.00
$62.00
$64.00
$66.00
640.00
660.00
680.00
700.00
720.00
740.00
760.00
780.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Russel 2000 (RUT)
Russell 2000 ^RUT
Buffalo Wild Wings ^BWLD
Buffalo
Wild
Wings NASDAQ S&P500
Russell
2000 DJIA
Week Symbols ^BWLD ^IXIC ^GSPC ^RUT ^DJI
Start 9-Sep 59.70 $ 2,467.99 1,154.23 673.96 ########
1 16-Sep 64.40 $ 2,622.31 1,216.01 714.31 ########
2 23-Sep 59.34 $ 2,483.23 1,136.43 652.43 ########
3 30-Sep 59.80 $ 2,415.40 1,131.42 644.16 ########
4 7-Oct 56.96 $ 2,479.35 1,155.46 656.21 ########
5 14-Oct 58.72 $ 2,667.85 1,224.58 712.46 ########
6 21-Oct 62.88 $ 2,637.46 1,238.25 712.42 ########
7 28-Oct 65.60 $ 2,737.15 1,285.09 761.00 ########
8 4-Nov 64.34 $ 2,686.15 1,253.23 746.49 ########
9 11-Nov 63.99 $ 2,678.75 1,263.85 744.64 ########
10 18-Nov 63.61 $ 2,572.50 1,215.65 719.42 ########
4 1 2 3 5 6 7 8 9 10
Price on Price on Price on Price on Price on Price on Price on Price on Price on Price on Price on
7-Oct 9-Sep 16-Sep 23-Sep 30-Sep 14-Oct 21-Oct 28-Oct 4-Nov 11-Nov 18-Nov
BWLD 56.96 $ 59.70 $ 64.40 $ 59.34 $ 59.80 $ 58.72 $ 62.88 $ 65.60 $ 64.34 $ 63.99 $ 63.61 $
Begin End
% Change 9/9/11 11/18/11 Change
7.31% ^DJI 10,992.13 11,796.16 804.03
4.23% ^IXIC 2,467.99 2,572.50 104.51
5.32% ^GSPC 1,154.23 1,215.65 61.42
6.75% ^RUT 673.96 719.42 45.46
6.55% BWLD 59.70 $ 63.61 $ 3.91 $
DJIA NASDAQ S&P500
Russell
2000 Stock Stock Stock Stock Stock
Week Symbols ^DJI ^IXIC ^GSPC ^RUT DRI EAT RT CAKE BWLD
Start 9-Sep 10,992.13 2,467.99 1,154.23 673.96 43.37 $ 20.01 $ 7.28 $ 25.60 $ 59.70 $
1 16-Sep 11,509.09 2,622.31 1,216.01 714.31 45.61 $ 21.21 $ 7.92 $ 27.44 $ 64.40 $
2 23-Sep 10,771.48 2,483.23 1,136.43 652.43 46.06 $ 21.73 $ 7.02 $ 26.49 $ 59.34 $
3 30-Sep 10,913.38 2,415.40 1,131.42 644.16 42.75 $ 20.92 $ 7.16 $ 24.65 $ 59.80 $
4 7-Oct 11,103.12 2,479.35 1,155.46 656.21 44.12 $ 20.99 $ 7.16 $ 24.99 $ 56.96 $
5 14-Oct 11,644.49 2,667.85 1,224.58 712.46 46.66 $ 22.29 $ 7.71 $ 27.01 $ 58.72 $
6 21-Oct 11,808.79 2,637.46 1,238.25 712.42 47.17 $ 22.73 $ 7.88 $ 27.33 $ 62.88 $
7 28-Oct 12,231.11 2,737.15 1,285.09 761.00 48.50 $ 23.28 $ 8.52 $ 28.36 $ 65.60 $
8 4-Nov 11,983.24 2,686.15 1,253.23 746.49 47.36 $ 22.78 $ 7.85 $ 27.36 $ 64.34 $
9 11-Nov 12,153.68 2,678.75 1,263.85 744.64 47.41 $ 22.92 $ 7.47 $ 27.59 $ 63.99 $
10 18-Nov 11,796.16 2,572.50 1,215.65 719.42 46.47 $ 23.20 $ 7.15 $ 26.75 $ 63.61 $
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Price on Price on Price on Price on Price on Price on Price on Price on Price on Price on Price on
9-Sep 16-Sep 23-Sep 30-Sep 7-Oct 14-Oct 21-Oct 28-Oct 4-Nov 11-Nov 18-Nov
DRI 43.37 $ 45.61 $ 46.06 $ 42.75 $ 44.12 $ 46.66 $ 47.17 $ 48.50 $ 47.36 $ 47.41 $ 46.47 $
EAT 20.01 $ 21.21 $ 21.73 $ 20.92 $ 20.99 $ 22.29 $ 22.73 $ 23.28 $ 22.78 $ 22.92 $ 23.20 $
RT 7.28 $ 7.92 $ 7.02 $ 7.16 $ 7.16 $ 7.71 $ 7.88 $ 8.52 $ 7.85 $ 7.47 $ 7.15 $
CAKE 25.60 $ 27.44 $ 26.49 $ 24.65 $ 24.99 $ 27.01 $ 27.33 $ 28.36 $ 27.36 $ 27.59 $ 26.75 $
BWLD 59.70 $ 64.40 $ 59.34 $ 59.80 $ 56.96 $ 58.72 $ 62.88 $ 65.60 $ 64.34 $ 63.99 $ 63.61 $
Begin End
9/9/11 11/18/11 Change % Change
^DJI 10,992.13 11,796.16 804.03 7.31%
^IXIC 2,467.99 2,572.50 104.51 4.23%
^GSPC 1,154.23 1,215.65 61.42 5.32%
^RUT 673.96 719.42 45.46 6.75%
DRI 43.37 $ 46.47 $ 3.10 $ 7.15%
EAT 20.01 $ 23.20 $ 3.19 $ 15.94%
RT 7.28 $ 7.15 $ (0.13) $ -1.79%
CAKE 25.60 $ 26.75 $ 1.15 $ 4.49%
BWLD 59.70 $ 63.61 $ 3.91 $ 6.55%
9-Sep
^DJI 10,992.13
^IXIC 2,467.99
^GSPC 1,154.23
^RUT 673.96
DRI 43.37 $
EAT 20.01 $
RT 7.28 $
CAKE 25.60 $
BWLD 59.70 $
9-Sep 16-Sep Change Change % Change Change %
^DJI 10,992.13 11,509.09 516.96 4.703% 516.96 4.703%
^IXIC 2,467.99 2,622.31 154.32 6.253% 154.32 6.253%
^GSPC 1,154.23 1,216.01 61.78 5.352% 61.78 5.352%
^RUT 673.96 714.31 40.35 5.987% 40.35 5.987%
DRI 43.37 $ 45.61 $ $2.24 5.165% $2.24 5.165%
EAT 20.01 $ 21.21 $ $1.20 5.997% $1.20 5.997%
RT 7.28 $ 7.92 $ $0.64 8.791% $0.64 8.791%
CAKE 25.60 $ 27.44 $ $1.84 7.188% $1.84 7.188%
BWLD 59.70 $ 64.40 $ $4.70 7.873% $4.70 7.873%
Fri-Consumer sentiment With improved views of the current economy, a gauge of consumer
sentiment rose in September after tumbling to a nearly-three-year low in August, according to
data released Friday University of Michigan/Thomson Reuters. The preliminary sentiment
reading for September increased to 57.8 from 55.7 in August. The August reading was the
lowest level since November 2008 with Washingtons protracted debt-ceiling negotiations
RT - The cheapest restaurants in America are luring activist investors who are betting
companies from Ruby Tuesday Inc. (RT) to Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc. (CBRL)
can make more money selling their own real estate than food. The 10 biggest U.S.
restaurants that sell for less than the value of their property, plants and equipment trade at
70 cents on the dollar, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
CAKE - Lower guest counts and less spending will most likely hit mid-range restaurants like
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (Nasdaq:CAKE) and P.F. Chang's China Bistro
(Nasdaq:PFCB)especially hard. A recent consumer survey conducted by RBC Capital
Markets says that a third of Americans will tighten their belts when it comes to dining out over
the next 90 days.
Company Specific News
Worries about the European debt markets pushed U.S. Treasury bond yields lower and
that helped drive interest rates on fixed-rate mortgages to new record lows this week,
according to a weekly survey of conforming loan rates released Thursday by Freddie Mac.
The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage dropped to 4.09% in the week ending
Thursday the lowest in the 40 years Freddie Mac has tracked that figure down from
4.12% a week ago and from 4.37% a year ago. On a 15-year loan, the average rate dipped
The S&P 500 scored its best week since early July on signs euro zone leaders were acting
together to limit any damage from its sovereign debt crisis.The leaders took steps this week
to show they were tackling the debt crisis, which has plagued markets for weeks, including
coordinated central bank moves to give European banks greater access to funding in dollars.
A record number of people were in poverty last year as households saw their income
decrease, according to data from the Census Bureau Tuesday, demonstrating the weakness
of the economy even after the official end of the recession. The 46.2 million people in poverty
in 2010 was the most for the 52 years that estimates have been published, and the number
of people in poverty rose for the fourth consecutive year as the poverty rate climbed to 15.1%
EAT - Brinker International, Inc.s (NYSE: EAT - News) share price has entered into oversold
territory with a stochastic value of 13.094.
DRI- On Thursday, the first lady joined Darden Restaurants Inc. executives at one of their
Olive Garden restaurants in Hyattsville, Md., near Washington to announce that the
company's chains are pledging to cut calories and sodium in their meals by 20 percent over
a decade. Fruit or vegetable side dishes and low-fat milk will become standard with kids'
meals unless a substitution is requested. Mrs. Obama said Darden's announcement is a
EAT - Fast food restaurants are vastly outperforming higher priced restaurants. Since the
beginning of September, McDonald's and Wendy's are down just 4.3% and 1.2%,
respectively. That is vastly less than the 4% drop seen by Cracker Barrel Old Country Store,
Inc. (Nasdaq:CBRL), or the 8.3% decline for Chili's operator Brinker International, Inc.
(NYSE:EAT).
Weekly Since 1/14
Wed-Retail Sales Retail sales were steady in August, as consumers spent more on
essentials at gas stations and grocery stores, but less on cars, according to government data
released Wednesday. The Commerce Department said U.S. retail and food services sales in
August reached $389.5 billion, with the flat result the lowest growth since May. Excluding the
volatile auto segment, sales rose 0.1%. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected
an increase of 0.3% for the overall number, as well as for the data excluding autos.
Thurs-Consumer price index Americans paid more money for a broad range of goods and
services last month, including gas, food, clothing and shelter, and the higher costs ate into
their inflation-adjusted income. The Labor Department on Thursday said consumer prices
rose a seasonally adjusted 0.4% in August. The increase was largely responsible for a 0.6%
drop in the average hourly wages of U.S. workers, adjusted for inflation. It marked the
Economic News
Analyst Recommendations
DRI - Darden Restaurants, Inc. (NYSE:DRI) could be about to retest its 52-week low
16-Sep 23-Sep Change Change % Change Change %
^DJI 11,509.09 10,771.48 (737.61) -6.409% (220.65) -2.007%
^IXIC 2,622.31 2,483.23 (139.08) -5.304% 15.24 0.618%
^GSPC 1,216.01 1,136.43 (79.58) -6.544% (17.80) -1.542%
^RUT 714.31 652.43 (61.88) -8.663% (21.53) -3.195%
DRI 45.61 $ 46.06 $ $0.45 0.987% $2.69 6.202%
EAT 21.21 $ 21.73 $ $0.52 2.452% $1.72 8.596%
RT 7.92 $ 7.02 $ ($0.90) -11.364% ($0.26) -3.571%
CAKE 27.44 $ 26.49 $ ($0.95) -3.462% $0.89 3.477%
BWLD 64.40 $ 59.34 $ ($5.06) -7.857% ($0.36) -0.603%
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting - Information received since the Federal
Open Market Committee met in August indicates that economic growth remains slow. Recent
indicators point to continuing weakness in overall labor market conditions, and the
unemployment rate remains elevated.
Company Specific News
DRI - Today at the Clinton Global Initiative's (CGI) Seventh Annual Meeting, Darden
Restaurants formally announced the company's three-year commitment to rebuilding troubled
fisheries through Fishery Improvement Projects (FIPs). Initial FIP work will be in and around the
Gulf of Mexico with partners Publix Super Markets and Sustainable Fisheries Partnership
DRI - Darden Restaurants, Inc. (NYSE:DRI - News) will be webcasting their 2011 Shareholder's
Meeting to be held in Orlando on Thursday, September 22, 2011
Gold prices continued to plunge Friday, despite the market turmoil that often drives investors to
the traditional safe haven. Gold tumbled $101.90, or 5.9%, in regular trading to $1,639.80 an
ounce. It's the second straight day of steep declines for the precious metal. According to the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Friday marked the first $100 daily price drop since Jan. 22,
1980, when gold plunged $143.50 to $682 the day after having spiked to a record high. Keith
Springer, president of Springer Financial Advisors, said that while gold has benefited from
economic uncertainty in recent months and years, it's primarily been a hedge against inflation.
But the growing worries about a global economic slowdown have raised new fears that there
DRI-Darden Restaurants Inc.said annual revenue will increase by as much as 53 percent by
fiscal 2016. Revenue will be between $10.5 billion and $11.5 billion in 2016, Chief Executive
Officer Clarence Otis said today during a webcast of the Orlando, Florida-based companys
annual meeting. In the next five years, Darden will increase profit by as much as $3.50 a share,
he said. Darden dropped 68 cents to $44.56 at 4:01 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange
composite trading. The shares have declined 4 percent this year, compared with a 10 percent
CAKE - The Cheesecake Factory Inc. which currently operates 168 restaurants, recently
announced the opening of a new unit in San Mateo, California. This is the fifth of the companys
targeted 7 new openings for fiscal 2011. The other restaurants have already opened in Texas,
New Jersey, Florida and Connecticut
Weekly Since 1/14
Thurs Initial Jobless Claims- Fewer out-of-work Americans filed new claims for unemployment
benefits last week, but applications remain at an elevated level that reflects the slow pace of
hiring in the U.S., government data showed Thursday. New requests for compensation in the
week ended Sept. 17 fell by 9,000 to a total of 423,000, the Labor Department said. Initial
claims from two weeks ago were revised up to 432,000 from an original reading of 428,000.
Thurs Leading Economic Indicators - The nations economy should exhibit continued weak
growth through the fall and winter, the Conference Board said Thursday as it reported that its
index of leading economic indicators expanded at a tepid pace in August.
The leading economic index grew 0.3% in August, compared with a 0.1% gain expected by
economists polled by MarketWatch. The gauge for July was revised to 0.6% from a prior
estimate of 0.5%. The LEI is a weighted gauge of 10 indicators that are designed to signal
business-cycle peaks and troughs. Among the 10 indicators that make up the LEI, four made
positive contributions in August, led by the real money supply, with other positive contributions
coming from the interest rate spread, building permits, and the index of supplier deliveries. The
largest negative contribution came from stock prices. Other negative contributions came from a
gauge of consumer expectations, average weekly manufacturing hours, average weekly claims
for unemployment-insurance benefits, manufacturers new orders for consumer goods and
The Federal Reserve announced "Operation Twist" Wednesday, a widely expected stimulus
move reviving a policy from the 1960s.The policy involves selling $400 billion in short-term
Treasuries in exchange for the same amount of longer-term bonds, starting in October and
ending in June 2012.
Economic News
Analyst Recommendations
23-Sep 30-Sep Change Change % Change Change %
^DJI 10,771.48 10,913.38 141.90 1.32% (78.75) -0.72%
^IXIC 2,483.23 2,415.40 (67.83) -2.73% (52.59) -2.13%
^GSPC 1,136.43 1,131.42 (5.01) -0.44% (22.81) -1.98%
^RUT 652.43 644.16 (8.27) -1.27% (29.80) -4.42%
DRI 46.06 $ 42.75 $ ($3.31) -7.19% (0.62) -1.43%
EAT 21.73 $ 20.92 $ ($0.81) -3.73% 0.91 4.55%
RT 7.02 $ 7.16 $ $0.14 1.99% (0.12) -1.65%
CAKE 26.49 $ 24.65 $ ($1.84) -6.95% (0.95) -3.71%
BWLD 59.34 $ 59.80 $ $0.46 0.78% 0.10 0.17%
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sales-of-new-us-homes-dip-in-august-2011-09-26
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/consumer-confidence-ticks-higher-2011-09-27
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/second-quarter-gdp-revised-up-to-show-13-growth-2011-09-29
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-jobless-claims-sink-37000-to-391000-2011-09-29
http://money.cnn.com/2011/09/24/markets/geithner_debt/index.htm?iid=Popular
Company Specific News
Weekly Since 1/14
The U.S. economy expanded at a slightly faster pace than previously thought in the second
quarter of 2011, led by a pickup in consumer and construction spending, government data
showed Thursday. Gross domestic product rose at an annual rate of 1.3% in the second
quarter, the Commerce Department said.The rate of GDP growth was faster than the
governments prior reading of 1.0%. This is the third and final revision in the governments
estimate of second-quarter growth in goods and services. The government provides three
estimates of economic growth each reflecting more complete information than the previous
one. This consensus forecast belies the fact that many analysts are concerned the economy
could be losing steam. Economists continue to debate whether the economy might slip into a
double-dip recession.Even if an outright recession is avoided, the pace of growth isnt
expected to be fast enough to make a serious dent in the nations persistently high
unemployment rate.Late Wednesday, Fed chief Ben Bernanke called the weak labor market
a national crisis. The central bank last week launched a new plan to effectively twist the yield
The sale of new single-family homes fell in August for the fourth month in a row, indicating that
the depressed U.S. housing market shows no signs of recovery. Sales dropped 2.3% last
month to an annual rate of 295,000, the lowest level since February, the Commerce
Department said Monday. After peaking in 2011 at a paltry 316,000 in April, new-home sales
have retreated. The housing market is likely to remain in the dumps until hiring improves and
the U.S. grows faster, economists say.
As expectations slightly gained, consumer confidence ticked higher in September while
remaining at low levels, the Conference Board reported Tuesday. The nonprofit organization
said its consumer-confidence index rose to 45.4 in September from 45.2 in August, when it
had plunged on worries about jobs and the U.S. debt, among other factors. Generally when
the economy is growing at a good clip, confidence readings are at 90 and above. Consumer
spending is the backbone of the economy, and economists watch confidence readings to get
a feel for the direction of spending.
Economic News
U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner warned Saturday that the sovereign debt and banking
crisis in Europe represents "the most serious risk now confronting the world economy." In an
official statement to the International Monetary Fund, Geithner also discussed the need to both
support the U.S. economy in the short term and take steps to lower the nation's long-term
deficits. But his strongest comments were directed at Europe, where the specter of a default
by the Greek government has upset financial markets around the world. The nation's long-
standing debt problems are threatening to spill over into the European banking system, with
possible repercussions for the fragile U.S. economy.
The number of Americans who filed applications for unemployment benefits sank last week to
the lowest level since early spring, but the surprising drop may have stemmed from technical
issues not captured by normal seasonal adjustments.Jobless claims fell by 37,000 to 391,000
in the week ended Sept. 24, putting them at the lowest level since April 2, the Labor
Department reported Thursday. Initial claims from two weeks ago were revised up to 428,000
from an original reading of 423,000. Yet hiring is not expected to pick up anytime soon,
particularly given renewed fears of another recession and fresh worries about a financial crisis
in Europe. Economists say hiring would have to average 250,000 a month for several years to
pull the nations jobless rate back down to pre-recession levels. About 6.98 million people
received some kind of state or federal benefit in the week of Sept. 10, up 95,242 from the prior
week. Total claims are reported with a two-week lag.
The federal government offers extended compensation to millions of Americans whose state
benefits have already expired. Benefits in most states last six months.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sales-of-new-us-homes-dip-in-august-2011-09-26
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/consumer-confidence-ticks-higher-2011-09-27
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/second-quarter-gdp-revised-up-to-show-13-growth-2011-09-29
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-jobless-claims-sink-37000-to-391000-2011-09-29
http://money.cnn.com/2011/09/24/markets/geithner_debt/index.htm?iid=Popular
30-Sep 7-Oct Change Change % Change Change %
^DJI 10,913.38 11,103.12 189.74 1.74% 110.99 1.01%
^IXIC 2,415.40 2,479.35 63.95 2.65% 11.36 0.46%
^GSPC 1,131.42 1,155.46 24.04 2.12% 1.23 0.11%
^RUT 644.16 656.21 12.05 1.87% (17.75) -2.63%
DRI 42.75 $ 44.12 $ $1.37 3.20% 0.75 1.73%
EAT 20.92 $ 20.99 $ $0.07 0.33% 0.98 4.90%
RT 7.16 $ 7.16 $ $0.00 0.00% (0.12) -1.65%
CAKE 24.65 $ 24.99 $ $0.34 1.38% (0.61) -2.38%
BWLD 59.80 $ 56.96 $ ($2.84) -4.75% (2.74) -4.59%
Cramer likes Buffalo Wild Wings, as its story is intact, and it has good growth. As of
October 6, it has a P/E ratio of 24.3, and a forward P/E ratio of 18.2. Five-year annual EPS
growth forecast is 19.8%. Profit margin (6.5%) is below the industry average of 10.5%, while it
pays no dividend.
Analyst Recommendations
August jobs report: Hiring grinds to a halt
Economists typically estimate the nation needs to add about 150,000 jobs each month to keep
up with population growth alone. It needs even stronger growth to recover the 8.8 million jobs
lost during the financial crisis.Weak hiring in August was hardly a surprise. The month started
with Congress haggling about the debt ceiling, Standard & Poor's downgrading the United
States credit rating and the stock market zigzagging. The economy added no jobs in August,
the Labor Department said Friday. They also expect job growth to remain weak for the rest of
the year, with the economy adding an average of 110,000 jobs each month and the
unemployment rate barely ticking down to 8.9%.The White House said yesterday that it
predicts the unemployment rate will remain stubbornly high, not falling below 6% until 2017.
August wholesale inventories rise 0.4%
Inventories at U.S. wholesalers rose 0.4% in August, and were up 14.4% from the prior year,
the Commerce Department reported Friday. Sales of wholesalers rose 1% in August, while the
inventory-to-sales ratio was 1.16.
BJ's Treads Expansion Path
BJs is well positioned to sustain its growth momentum while generating improved earnings
spurred by operating efficiencies and innovative offerings. These also help the company to
drive traffic and post robust same-store sales growth. The company also boasts a debt-free
balance sheet and plans to enhance pricing to mitigate input cost pressure. Additionally, the
core Californian market, which had been badly hit during the housing downturn, has also
begun to turnaround. The gradual development of this market, which is one of the major
operational locations for the company, is an important tailwind for BJ. However, cost inflation
and stiff competition make us cautious.
Company Specific News
ISM reading picks up in September to 51.6%
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index
picked up a bit in September, rising to 51.6% from a 50.6% reading in August. Economists
polled by MarketWatch had anticipated an unchanged reading. Of key components, the new
orders reading stayed at 49.6%, production rose 2.6 points to 51.2% and employment rose 2
points to 53.8%
Weekly Since 1/14
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index
picked up a bit in September, rising to 51.6% from a 50.6% reading in August. Economists
polled by MarketWatch had anticipated an unchanged reading. Of key components, the new
orders reading stayed at 49.6%, production rose 2.6 points to 51.2% and employment rose 2
points to 53.8%.
Consumer credit drops for first time in 11 months
U.S. consumers shed debt for the first time in 11 months in August, the Federal Reserve
reported Friday. Consumers lowered their debt by a seasonally adjusted $9.5 billion, or at a
4.6% annual rate, in August. This is the biggest decline since April 2010. The decline was
unexpected. Wall Street economists had forecast an increase of about $8 billion in consumer
credit in August. Both categories of credit declined in the month. The non-revolving category
such as auto loans, personal loans, and student loans fell $7.2 billion or 5.2% in August.
Revolving credit, which tracks credit-card debt, fell $2.3 billion or 3.5% in the month.
Earnings on deck as Europe eyed
Investors tiring of the euro zone's debt crisis dragging the market all over the place are hoping
to focus on something else next week -- earnings.
The unofficial start of earnings season begins on Tuesday, when Dow component Alcoa Inc
(AA - News) reports third-quarter results after the close of trading. That level now sits around
1,178.
This week's sharp gains were built on improved hopes that European officials will get a handle
on the euro-zone debt crisis. That fed a massive bout of short-covering as those betting
against stocks were forced to buy shares to avoid losing money.
The benchmark S&P 500 index (^SPX - News; ^INX - News) rose 2.1 percent for the week,
buoyed by a 6 percent jump mid-week, as it appeared plans in the euro zone to get a grip on
the debt crisis were moving forward. The region remains a wild card, which could cause any
gains to quickly vanish.
Economic News
Is the Rally Real or Fake? Should You Chase Stocks?
Take a look at the chart below and you can't help but wonder if this bounce is doomed to fail
like the previous four September/October fake out rallies.
Since the August 9 lows, the S&P (SNP: ^GSPC), along with the Dow (DJI: ^DJI) and Nasdaq
(Nasdaq: ^IXIC), has staged four seemingly powerful rallies. Each time, the S&P gained about
100 points. Each time, the S&P erased all or nearly all the gains and ultimately fell to new
lows.
Just last week, stocks rallied on Monday and Tuesday (September 26 and 27). The media got
all giddy and after Monday's (Sep. 26) close, the Associated Press (AP) claimed that, 'Stocks
jump on hopes for a Europe fix.' On Tuesday (Sep. 27) Reuters reported that, 'Stocks pop on
Europe hope.'
The S&P tumbled 120 points from Reuter's hope-filled Tuesday headline to this week's lows.
Yesterday once again, the AP exclaimed that: 'Stocks rise on hopes for European banks.' Is
7-Oct 14-Oct Change Change % Change Change %
^DJI 11,103.12 11,644.49 541.37 4.88% $652.36 5.93%
^IXIC 2,479.35 2,667.85 188.50 7.60% $199.86 8.10%
^GSPC 1,155.46 1,224.58 69.12 5.98% $70.35 6.09%
^RUT 656.21 712.46 56.25 8.57% $38.50 5.71%
DRI 44.12 $ 46.66 $2.54 5.76% $3.29 7.59%
EAT 20.99 $ 22.29 $1.30 6.19% $2.28 11.39%
RT 7.16 $ 7.71 $0.55 7.68% $0.43 5.91%
CAKE 24.99 $ 27.01 $2.02 8.08% $1.41 5.51%
BWLD 56.96 $ 58.72 $1.76 3.09% ($0.98) -1.64%
While Darden reported revenue growth of over 7% this quarter. Darden reported 17% higher
food costs this quarter, and gross margin dropped two full points. While the company did a
laudable job of controlling corporate expenses, operating income fell about 8% and the
company saw a one-and-a-half point erosion in operating margin. The company is not exactly
in a position to shift away from seafood, steak or poultry and if the company gets too
aggressive on passing through prices, at least one among rivals like Brinker (NYSE:EAT),
DineEquity (NYSE:DIN), Ruby Tuesday (NYSE:RT). Likewise, there is not much that the
company can do to change the dining experience overnight. Customers may be somewhat
less price sensitive at Cheesecake Factory (Nasdaq:CAKE) but Darden is not going to change
its brand image fast enough to benefit.$1.7 billion in debt on the balance sheet today is more
than enough.
Darden has historically generated free cash flow margins around 1.5%, many sell-side
analysts are projecting forward margins in the 7% range. Now it's fair to assume that Darden
will see positive leverage from reduced capital expenditures. Even if the company can boost
free cash flow production to over 7% of sales, subtracting a large chunk of the debt from the
valuation renders the stock undervalued by less than 20%. So, less than 20% discount to fair
value on the basis of aggressive cash flow improvement in an environment of intense margin
pressure.
The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) operates upscale, casual, and full-service dining restaurants
in the United States. There was strong put option activity, specifically in the Oct $23, $24, and
$25 strike prices. The stock shows some reasonable value at 17.6x P/E, .9x EV/S, and 7.7x
EV/EBITDA. This stock is a reasonable buy here right near its 52-week low.
Weekly Since 1/14
Initial jobless claims inch down to 404,000
Applications for unemployment benefits reflect little change in hiring
Slightly more than 400,000 people filed new applications last week for unemployment benefits,
keeping claims at a level typically associated with weak hiring trends, U.S. government data
showed Thursday.Initial jobless claims inched down by 1,000 last week to 404,000, the Labor
Department reported. Initial claims from two weeks ago were revised up to 405,000 from an
original reading of 401,000.
Consumers not motivated to spend more. Consumers kept a firm grip on their wallets in
August, threatening to stall further the already slowing economic recovery.
Retail sales were unchanged in August, less than the 0.2% increase that economists were
expecting, according to consensus estimates from Briefing.com.
Also, the boost in retail sales reported in July was revised to be slightly less than originally
reported. Retail sales in July were cut to up 0.3% from the 0.5% gain initially posted.
A small-business optimism index rose slightly in September, marking the first gain after six
months of declines. The National Federation of Independent Business small-business
optimism index rose 0.8 points to 88.9. Twenty-eight percent of small-business owners
reported that poor sales is still their top business problem -- as it has been the last three
years. The net percent of owners expecting better business conditions in six months was a
negative 22%, up 4 points from August, but 32 percentage points lower than January. The
gauge hasn't been above 100 since Oct. 2006
U.S. retail sales jump 1.1% in September
Biggest increase in seven months as auto purchases lead way.
Higher purchases of autos, clothing and furniture in September fueled the biggest
increase in U.S. retail sales in seven months, government data showed Friday. The
spring back in consumer spending is the latest evidence to suggest the U.S. economy
Economic News
October UMich consumer sentiment falls to 57.5
Company Specific News
Eddie Vs Restaurants Inc. and Wildfish Seafood has been sold to Darden Restaurants Inc.,
executives announced Wednesday.The deal is valued at $59 million and includes the
Scottsdale-based Eddie Vs Restaurants Inc. brands of Eddie Vs Prime Seafood and Wildfish
Seafood Grille restaurants.
The transaction includes eight Eddie Vs locations in Arizona, California and Texas; and three
Wildfish locations in Arizona, California and Texas. The Roaring Fork brands are not part of
the transaction.
The 10 Highest Potential Returns in Restaurant Stocks
Company| Dividend Return*| Earnings Growth Return Valuation Return
Implied Cumulative Annual ReturnRuby Tuesday 0% 7% 4% 11%
Brinker International 3% 8% 4% 15%
Darden Restaurants:4% 8% 4% 15%
EAT: McDonald's Ups Dividend by 15%Oak Brook, Illinois-based McDonald's Corp. (NYSE:
MCD - News) recently increased its quarterly dividend by 15% from 61 cents per share paid
previously. This equates to an annual pay out of $2.80 per share. The increased dividend will
be paid on December 15, 2011, to stockholders of record as of December 1, 2011.
Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI) operates a number of well known restaurants such as Red
Lobster and The Olive Garden. With the economy looking like it is entering a recession and
consumer confidence down, it seems that earnings and guidance could disappoint investors. I
would sell the recent rebound off the lows. However, Cramer gives this stock a buy rating. A
director bought 20,000 shares in the past couple of weeks:
Current share price: $46.68
The 52-week range is $40.69 to $53.81
Earnings estimates for 2011: $3.78 per share
Earnings estimates for 2012: $4.28 per share
Annual dividend: $1.72 per share, which yields 3.8%
14-Oct 21-Oct Change Change % Change Change %
^DJI 11,644.49 11,808.79 164.30 1.41% 816.66 7.43%
^IXIC 2,667.85 2,637.46 (30.39) -1.14% 169.47 6.87%
^GSPC 1,224.58 1,238.25 13.67 1.12% 84.02 7.28%
^RUT 712.46 712.42 (0.04) -0.01% 38.46 5.71%
DRI 46.66 $ 47.17 $0.51 1.09% 3.80 8.76%
EAT 22.29 $ 22.73 $0.44 1.97% 2.72 13.59%
RT 7.71 $ 7.88 $0.17 2.20% 0.60 8.24%
CAKE 27.01 $ 27.33 $0.32 1.18% 1.73 6.76%
BWLD 58.72 $ 62.88 $4.16 7.08% 3.18 5.33%
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/11022867/1/citigroup-medassets-analysts-new-ratings.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA
Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) upgraded at Sterne Agee from Neutral to Buy, Sterne Agee said.
$36 price target.
Analyst Recommendations
Weekly Since 1/14
Inflation mellowed out a little bit at the Consumer level in September. The Consumer Price
Index (CPI) rose by 0.3% in September, down from a 0.4% increase in August, and from a
July increase of 0.5%. In June the CPI actually fell by 0.2%. The increase matched consensus
expectations. Year over year, it is up 3.9%.They rose 0.4% in September, down from a rise of
0.5% in August, and matching the July increase.
U.S. jobless claims fall slightly to 403,000 The number of Americans who filed new
applications for jobless benefits barely changed last week, government data showed
Thursday, indicating that a weak U.S. jobs market shows few signs of improvement.
U.S. housing starts jump 15%, hit 17-month high
Apartments lead September gain; single-family starts rise 1.7%
Economic News
U.S. leading indicators climb 0.2% in September. Although the index has risen five straight
months, the board also said the data shows weakening growth, with only five of the 10
indicators posting an increase.
Company Specific News
Form 8-K for CHEESECAKE FACTORY INC
In a press release dated October 21, 2011, The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated announced
Darden Restaurants Inc (DRI.N) said it will beef up promotions to lure diners to its Olive
Garden, Red Lobster and LongHorn Steakhouse restaurants, hoping to reverse a spending
pullback that hurt quarterly results. "Fewer appetizers, drinks and desserts were purchased,"
Chief Financial Officer Bradford Richmond said.
Cheesecake Factory Inc., which operates its namesake and Grand Lux Cafe restaurant
chains, said its fiscal third-quarter profit fell 6.3 percent as Hurricane Irene hurt business.
The results fell short of Wall Street's expectations and shares fell in after-hours trading
Wednesday.
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/11022867/1/citigroup-medassets-analysts-new-ratings.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA
21-Oct 28-Oct Change Change % Change Change %
^DJI 11,808.79 12,231.11 422.32 3.58% 1,238.98 11.27%
^IXIC 2,637.46 2,737.15 99.69 3.78% 269.16 10.91%
^GSPC 1,238.25 1,285.09 46.84 3.78% 130.86 11.34%
^RUT 712.42 761.00 48.58 6.82% 87.04 12.91%
DRI 47.17 $ 48.50 $ $1.33 2.82% 5.13 11.83%
EAT 22.73 $ 23.28 $ $0.55 2.42% 3.27 16.34%
RT 7.88 $ 8.52 $0.64 8.12% 1.24 17.03%
CAKE 27.33 $ 28.36 $ $1.03 3.77% 2.76 10.78%
BWLD 62.88 $ 65.60 $ $2.72 4.33% 5.90 9.88%
Pending home sales slide 4.6% in September
The final sentiment reading for October reached 60.9, compared with a preliminary October
reading of 57.5, and a September level of 59.4. Despite the modest improvement, consumers
remain concerned about personal finances, and with widespread distrust of Washington,
D.C., politicians their gloom is likely to remain, according to Richard Curtin, chief economist
for the consumer survey.
Sales of new single-family U.S. homes rose by 5.7% in September as prices fell to the lowest
level in nearly a year, The Commerce Department said Wednesday.
Jobless claims fell yet again.
Company Specific News
Although business headlines still tout earnings numbers, many investors have moved past net
earnings as a measure of a company's economic output. That's because earnings are very
often less trustworthy than cash flow, since earnings are more open to manipulation based on
dubious judgment calls.
Compensation costs for civilian workers edged up a seasonally adjusted 0.3% in the third
quarter to take the year-on-year rate to 2%, the Labor Department said Friday. Wages and
salaries rose 0.3% while benefits rose 0.1%
Eat got 5 outta 5 stars but 4 overall.
Analyst Recommendations
Weekly Since 1/14
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had slightly improved in
September, declined in October. The Index now stands at 39.8 (1985=100), down from 46.4 in
September. The Present Situation Index decreased to 26.3 from 33.3. The Expectations Index
declined to 48.7 from 55.1 last month. lowest since march of 2009.
Home prices in July climbed for the fourth month in a row, but are still down from a year ago.
According to the latest S&P/Case-Shiller home price index of 120 major cities, prices rose
0.9% in July compared with June, but they're still 4.1% lower than 12 months ago.
Lower demand for autos and aircraft triggered a decline in durable-good orders in September,
but bookings for a variety of other manufactured products rose in a sign the U.S. economy
continues to grow at a modest pace as it enters the fourth quarter.
Economic News
Economic growth remained very weak in the second quarter, but was slightly better than
previously thought, according to the government's final reading on U.S. economic health.
Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the nation's economy, grew at a 1.3% rate
in the three months ending in June, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.
Consumers spend more, save less in September
PCE inflation gauge up 0.2% on the month, 2.9% annualized
28-Oct 4-Nov Change Change % Change Change %
^DJI 12,231.11 11,983.24 (247.87) -2.03% 991.11 9.02%
^IXIC 2,737.15 2,686.15 (51.00) -1.86% 218.16 8.84%
^GSPC 1,285.09 1,253.23 (31.86) -2.48% 99.00 8.58%
^RUT 761.00 746.49 (14.51) -1.91% 72.53 10.76%
DRI 48.50 $ 47.36 $ ($1.14) -2.35% 3.99 9.20%
EAT 23.28 $ 22.78 ($0.50) -2.15% 2.77 13.84%
RT 8.52 $ 7.85 $ ($0.67) -7.86% 0.57 7.83%
CAKE 28.36 $ 27.36 $ ($1.00) -3.53% 1.76 6.87%
BWLD 65.60 $ 64.34 $ ($1.26) -1.92% 4.64 7.77%
Analyst Recommendations
Weekly Since 1/14
The U.S. added 80,000 jobs in October and the unemployment rate edged down to 9.0% from
9.1%, the Labor Department reported Friday. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had
forecast a 90,000 increase in employment and no change in the jobless rate. Although the
increase in employment fell short of Wall Street expectations, government revisions showed
sharply higher job growth in September and August. Hiring in September was revised up to
158,000 from 103,000 and job growth in August was revised up to 104,000 from 57,000. In
October, companies in the private sector hired 104,000 workers, but government cut 24,000
jobs to reduce the overall gain to 80,000, the Labor Department said. Hourly earnings rose
0.2% last month and the workweek was unchanged at 34.3 hours. The broader U6
unemployment rate fell to 16.2% from 16.5% in September.
Hiring was stronger than expected in September, a rare piece of good news amid growing
worries of a weakening U.S. economy.Employers added 103,000 jobs in the month, the Labor
Department reported Friday. And July and August were both revised higher, showing an
additional gain of 99,000 jobs over the summer.
The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing gauge dropped to 50.8% last
month, just slightly above a 2011 low, from 51.6% in September.
Economic News
U.S. productivity rises 3.1% in third quarter
Workers produce more, but wages, hours worked dont keep up
Company Specific News
4-Nov 11-Nov Change Change % Change Change %
^DJI 11,983.24 12,153.68 170.44 1.42% 1,161.55 10.57%
^IXIC 2,686.15 2,678.75 (7.40) -0.28% 210.76 8.54%
^GSPC 1,253.23 1,263.85 10.62 0.85% 109.62 9.50%
^RUT 746.49 744.64 (1.85) -0.25% 70.68 10.49%
DRI 47.36 $ 47.41 $ $0.05 0.11% 4.04 9.32%
EAT 22.78 $ 22.92 $ $0.14 0.61% 2.91 14.54%
RT 7.85 $ 7.47 $ ($0.38) -4.84% 0.19 2.61%
CAKE 27.36 $ 27.59 $ $0.23 0.84% 1.99 7.77%
BWLD 64.34 $ 63.99 $ ($0.35) -0.54% 4.29 7.19%
The company is a favorite pick of Ken Griffins Citadel Investment Group and Jim Simons
Renaissance Technologies. The company recently announced its third-quarter earnings: Total
revenue increased 30.7% to $197.8 million, net earnings increased 32.5% to $11.3 million
from $8.5 million, and earnings per diluted share increased 29.8% to $0.61 from $0.47.
Analyst Recommendations
Weekly Since 1/14
Fewer Americans filed for their first week of unemployment benefits last week, marking
continued -- but still slow -- improvement in the job market.
About 390,000 people filed for initial unemployment benefits in the week ended Nov. 5, the
Labor Department said Thursday. The number of claims fell 10,000 from the revised 400,000
in the prior week, and is now at the lowest level since April 2.
Economists are terrified about the chaos they expect if some countries decide to stop using
the euro. But one person thinks there may be a way to jump ship safely -- and he's got a
$400,000 bounty for anyone who can figure out how to do it.
Economic News
Last year, Black Friday sales totaled $11.8 billion, according to a report by research firm
IBISWorld. This year, sales are expected to increase by only 1.2% to just under $12 billion.
Company Specific News
Thanks to the generosity of guests and restaurant team members nationwide and in Puerto
Rico , Chili's Grill & Bar eighth annual Create-A-Pepper to Fight Childhood Cancer
campaign raised more than $5 million to help kids like Emma receiving lifesaving care at St.
Jude.
11-Nov 18-Nov Change Change % Change Change %
^DJI 12,153.68 11,796.16 (357.52) -2.94% 804.03 7.31%
^IXIC 2,678.75 2,572.50 (106.25) -3.97% 104.51 4.23%
^GSPC 1,263.85 1,215.65 (48.20) -3.81% 61.42 5.32%
^RUT 744.64 719.42 (25.22) -3.39% 45.46 6.75%
DRI 47.41 $ 46.47 $ ($0.94) -1.98% 3.10 7.15%
EAT 22.92 $ 23.20 $ $0.28 1.22% 3.19 15.94%
RT 7.47 $ 7.15 ($0.32) -4.28% (0.13) -1.79%
CAKE 27.59 $ 26.75 $ ($0.84) -3.04% 1.15 4.49%
BWLD 63.99 $ 63.61 ($0.38) -0.59% 3.91 6.55%
Weekly Since 1/14
CPI-Inflation took a bigger bite out of consumers' wallets over the last 12 months, with
September marking the biggest rise in three years.But at the same time, monthly price
increases are starting to slow.The Consumer Price Index, the government's key measure of
inflation at the retail level, jumped 3.9% in September from the year before. Higher food and
energy prices again were the biggest culprits, with food 4.7% more expensive than a year
earlier, and energy prices jumping 19.3%.
The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food
services sales for October, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day
differences, but not for price changes, were $397.7 billion, an increase of 0.5 percent (0.5%)*
from the previous month and 7.2 percent (0.7%) above October 2010. Total sales for the
August through October 2011 period were up 7.6 percent (0.5%) from the same period a
year ago. The August to September 2011 percent change was unrevised from +1.1 percent
(0.3%).
Retail trade sales were up 0.6 percent (0.5%) from September 2011, and 7.3 percent
(0.7%) above last year. Gasoline stations sales were up 15.6 percent (1.7%) from October
2010 and nonstore retailers sales were up 11.1 percent (2.3%) from last year.Retail sales-
The number of Americans filing for their first week of unemployment benefits dipped for the
third straight week, breaking another seven-month low. About 388,000 people filed for initial
unemployment benefits in the week ended Nov. 12, the Labor Department said Thursday. It
marked the lowest level since April 2 and a drop from the revised 393,000 claims in the prior
week.
The output of the nations factories, mines and utilities rose 0.7% in October, the Federal
Reserve said Wednesday in another sign the manufacturing industry is still expanding.
Economic News
Social Security recipients should get a cost of living adjustment of about 3.5% to 3.7% starting
in January. The exact amount should be released Wednesday, when the government unveils
the inflation index upon which the COLA is based.