(083650)

2014,

769.3429
leejiyun0829@daishin
.com

769.3082
jcjeon7@daishin..com

- Boiler
- 2013 4

Buy

, ,

27,000

- 2014 CFB Boiler ( )

- 2014 HRSG
- Boiler : Foster Wheeler + BHI (Foster Wheeler
, CFB Boiler 44%(2000 )

16,750

(13.10.11)

2013 4 . 2014 CFB Boiler

- 2013 3 120 ( 10%, 2013 18%)
- 2013 4 400 500
: , , HRSG

KOSDAQ

()
52 /
120

532.60
219
0.18%
7
31,750 / 16,050
11
0.43%
1 33.11%
3 22.07%

- 2014 CFB Boiler . ,

2W
3W
-2.0 -30.1
-3.0 -28.5

- 2014 HRSG . Shale

2012 3 Foster Wheeler

CFB Boiler : CFB
+ Foster Wheeler CFB Boiler ( 44%
) + BHI
: (CFB ), (CFB ), (PC)
- 2014 CFB Boiler 2014 800
BOP CFB Boiler 100 (150MW)

(%)

1W
-2.0
-2.6

4W
-45.8
-45.6

, 27,000
()

()

(%)

34

Relative to KOSDAQ()

10
0

29

- , 27,000
- 2014 EPS PER 14.9

24

-20

19

-30

- PER : Boiler
+
,

-40

- 2013 4 ,

-10

14
9
12.10

-50
13.01

13.04

13.07

-60
13.10

(: , , %)

2011A

2012A

2013F

2014F

2015F

239
16

501
27

640
32

731
39

766
47

9
9

34
26

24
19

31
24

39
30

26

19

24

30

EPS
PER

668
31.9

1,984
13.5

1,458
11.5

1,824
9.2

2,303
7.3

BPS

7,494

10,400

11,650

13,399

15,628

PBR
ROE

2.8
9.1

2.6
22.2

1.4
13.2

1.3
14.6

1.1
15.9

I.
BOP, HRSG

1998 HRSG, BOP

EPC . HRSG
2008 Foster Wheeler PC , 2012 CFB
. 2012 STX 500MW PC 2 HRSG
CFB , PC 1
.

1.

HRSG
(Heat Recovery Steam
Generator)

1
2 .
Capacity 10%

- BHI, S&TC, , ,
,,Alstom,

-
2(McCoy 2012 )

-

* :

-CFB

- , ,

* :
,
-PC

,BHI,
( CFB Boiler Foster
Wheeler )

BHI, TSMtech,S&TC

PC(Pulverized) Boiler

CFB(Circulating Fluidized
Bed) Boiler

BOP(,,)
: ,

.
.
EPC
.

2.

HRSG

2005.12

2006

Foster Wheeler

PC Boiler

2008.8

2012.9

Foster Wheeler

Oil &Gas Boiler

2010.6

2011

Foster Wheeler

CFB Boiler

2012.3

2014

Foster Wheeler

: BHI

DAISHIN SECURITIES

1.
()
900

BOP

2.

Boiler

HRSG

()
900

800

800

700
600

147

147

99

600

500
400

115

300

95

: ,

247

2015F

309

286

2014F

126

317

173
29
126

100
0

120

125

HRSG

500

200

60

BOP(,,)63
99
Boiler
67

400

2013F

108

224

216

300
255

2012

75
40

2011

26
18

60
37

51
34
67

2010

26
21

2009

2008

100

32

2007

97

2006

200

700

13
121
32

60
100

391

400

150

14
20
14

336
42
274
268 250
42
213
145 137
84
8
6
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013.62013F

: ,

2014 800
2014 800

2013
. 2014 1~2
CFB 800(HRSG 250, 400, BOP 120, 60
) .
HRSG,
(8), 1.9
Pool . 2014 400
.

5%

7% STX PC Boiler
50 4%~5% .
2014 5% 2015

3Q
.

3
.
.

3. 2013 3

(: , %)

3Q12

2Q13

3Q13(F)

YoY

QoQ

3Q13F
Consensus

Difference
(%)

126

166

155

22.6

-7.0

151

2.3

65.0

-14.0

-6.2

12.9

440.4

52.2

: , WISEfn,

3.

OPM(,%)
NIM(,%)

()
900
800

730

9.7%

600

14%
766

500

6.2% 8%
501
5.0% 5.3%
6%
4%

5.4%

400
266

300

2%

239

0%

173

151

200

12%
10%

640
6.8%

OPM(%,)
NIM(%,)

()

13.0%

8.6%

700

4.

-2%

100

-4%

-6%

250
200
150
100
50
0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F

10%
9%
8%
7%
5.3% 5.3% 6%
5%
5.7%
5.4%
5.0%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3F Q4F Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2012

2013

2014F

: ,

: ,
)

5.

6. Breakdown

()
900

100%

800

90%

700

80%

600

70%

11%

12%

36%

30%

12%

20%

41%

39%

2009

2010

60%

500
827

400

800

701

300

40%
30%

500

200

342

100

303

50%

20%

260

BOP

Boiler

7%

7%

25%

23%

16%

19%

53%

51%

HRSG
6%

7%

7%

15%

20%

19%

34%

31%

45%

42%

2013F

2014F

10%

42%

32%

0%

0
2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013F

2014F

: ,

2011

2012

2015F

: ,
)

7.
()

1,200

Boiler

1,000

HRSG
208

800
456

600
805

400
200

358

408

207

403

240

377
426
210

0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013.6
: ,
)

4. 2013 ~ 2014 BHI HRSG, Pool

(: ,MW)

DAISHIN SECURITIES

()

HRSG

216

HRSG

NA

HRSG

NA

NA

HRSG

NA

NA

HRSG

60

HRSG

67

HRSG

68

HRSG

411

CFB

200

CFB

270

450

CFB

270

450

CFB

180

300 MOU

PC

NA

NA

PC

500

870

PC

500

870

1,920

1,200

HRSG+

2,331

7,090

()

EPC Developer . PQ
3,000 4 HRSG
BHI 6 Package , 1~2 Package
NA

1,000 2014
940
950
5,890

: ,

II. 2014
2014

2008 PC 2012 STX

500MW 2 . 2012 CFB 5 BOP

. CFB
2014 CFB
.

, CFB
CFB

2020 32GW .
CFB
. 59% (
), 27% , 14% , 0.5% .

,

CFB

CFB

CFB

CFB 2014 CFB

. 300 7
CFB .

. IPP 2
4 . CFB (2007~2011
) 44%

8. CFB - FW 44%

9. 2020 32GW

DONGFANG
BOILER CO.,
4%

JINAN
BOILER
GROUP, 4%

(GW)

DOOSAN
HEAVY IND,
4%

35
30

HARBIN
BOILER CO.,
15%

25
20
15

FOSTER
WHEELER,
44%

FORMOSA
HEAVY IND,
28%

'12~'20

32

10

2007~2011
CFB
: 4.6GW

0
Coal

Geo
Hydro Combined Gas Diesel Others
Thermal
Cycle Turbine

: PLN,( )

III. 2014 HRSG

2014 HRSG


4GW

2020 4GW
HRSG 240 . HRSG
2011
2014 1~2 HRSG .
HRSG Alstom, Nooter Eriksen
.

50
( HRSG Capacity 20% ).
HRSG
.

10.

(GW)

11. HRSG

60

52

Coal

Nuclear

Natural Gas

Renewables/Other

NOOTER/ERIKSEN

DAEKYUN
G MACH
(DKME)
9%

50

CMI
ENERGY
15%

40
31
30

23

1
0
2016-2020

: EIA. 2013 6

2021-2025

2026-2030

MITSUBISHI
HEAVY IND
2%

VOGT POWER INTL

MITSUBISHI HEAVY
IND
DAEKYUNG MACH
(DKME)

VOGT
POWER INTL
15%

15

2012-2015

NOOTER/ERI
KSEN
31%

31

20
10

ALSTOM POWER

CMI ENERGY
ALSTOM
POWER
28%

2006~2011 HRSG
:2.7GW

DAISHIN SECURITIES

HRSG, PC
7,8
1,2

HRSG 2011, 2012

1GW
PC Boiler

1GW PC Boiler

HRSG PC . 6
7,8 1,2 .

1GW 7, 8, 1,2 .

5. 6 , ,

2016
LNG
2017

(: MW)

950

400

940

900

900

SK E&S

950
5,040

2018

2020

GS EPS

LNG

2019

Capacity(MW)

NSP IPP 1

SK

1,000
870

870

500

G1

1,000

G 2

1,000

1,000

NSP IPP 2

SK

1,000

500
1,000
1,000

9,740

14,780

: / : ,

[Compliance Notice]
4-20 15 ,
.
.
(:)
10.14 :
.
.
.

[ ]
(083650)
()

Adj. Price

Adj. Target Price

35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000

- Overweight()
: 6
- Neutral()
: 6
- Underweight()
: 6

5,000
0
11.10

13.10.14
Buy
27,000

12.02

12.06

12.10

13.02

13.06

- Buy()
: 6 10%p
- Marketperform():
: 6 -10%p~10%p
- Underperform( )
: 6 10%p