Mapping Predictors of Homelessness in Maine

By Richard M. Thompson II
Abstract

Four factors are known to be good predictors of
homelessness in a population: unemployment, poverty,
job loss, and lack of education. Geographical analysis of
these variables from the 1990, 2000, and 2010 census
suggest that people in some Maine towns are more
likely to become homeless as they experience higher
levels of two or more predictors. Preliminary spatial
analysis indicates that towns with several high risk
factors are spatially clustered, and share several other
similarities, including rurality, isolation, and ageing
populations. Accurate identification of areas of the
state with high risk of factors can inform efforts to study
and mitigate homelessness.



Introduction

The objective of this project is to identify areas that could
produce a homeless population in the state of Maine over a
twenty five year period. The maps shown in (Figures 1, 2, 3,
and 4) represent two common factors that have been linked
to homelessness. They are poverty and unemployment, using
the poverty and unemployment rates to map areas that could
produce high rates of homelessness from the 1990, 2000,
and 2010 census data.

Methods

Cleaned Up Data sheets exported into ArcMap10

Conducted Global Morans I to establish a distance band
and z-score

Conducted Cluster/ Outlier Analysis (Anselin Local Morans
Identifies cluster values that are spatially similar). Within
100,000 meter as seen in (Figures 1 and 2).

Maps in (Figure 3 and 4) represent a Quintiles analysis
form 1990, 2000, and 2010.
Analysis

Local Morans I
Maps found in (Figures 1 and 2) represent high high, high low,
low high, low low, cluster's of poverty and unemployment.
Quintiles
Maps found in (Figures 3 and 4) represent poverty and
unemployment broken down into quintile data.

The maps in (Figure 1 and 2) illustrate how poverty and
unemployment are clustered in close proximity to one another.
The maps in (Figures 1 and 2) show that there are low clusters of
poverty and unemployment found in the southern parts of the
state between 1990 and 2000. They also indicate that there is a
significant high amount of poverty and unemployment located in
both the northern and western parts of the state as well between
the years 1990 and 2000. Its not until 2010 that we see a dramatic
shift in data. With low low clustering of poverty shifting farther
inland and unemployment reaming in the south. The same trend
can be seen in (Figures 3 and 4) which is broken down into
present of change. Inconsistence in the 2010 map could be the
result of the state of Maine being in the middle of a recession,
which would explain the changes in the map during this time
frame.



Acknowledgements
Dr. Matthew Bampton Ph.D., David Wagner, Charles Colgan,
Amanda Rector, Thea Youngs, Dr. Vinton Valentin

References
Maine Office of GIS www.megis.gov
Census Bureau American Fact Finder www.census.gov


Local Morans I 1990-2010
Quintiles 1990-2010
Conclusion

The analysis indicates that the conditions likely to produce
homelessness, have changed their location through time .This
is indicated by the clustering patterns observed in (Figures 1
and 2) and the change in percent values in (Figures 3 and 4).

Possible explanations for this are :

Loss in industry, manufacturing, aging population, loss of
college graduates.

Recession in 2010

However , more analysis is needed in order to be certain
that these factors and the recession are the reason for the
disruption seen in (Figures 1 through 4).




1990 2000 2010
Poverty
1990 - 2010
Figure 1
1990 2000
2010
Unemployment
1990 - 2010
Figure 2
Poverty
1990 - 2010
Figure 3
1990 2000 2010
Unemployment
1990 - 2010
Figure 4
1990 2000 2010