Professional Documents
Culture Documents
14h 2014
2008
Th ba, ngy 8 thngJuly
7 nm
Biu gi
2013
2014F
%y/y
2015F
%y/y
Tng ti sn
468.994.032
501.652.207
7,0%
566.413.322
12,9%
274.314.209
315.461.340
15,0%
369.089.768
17,0%
n v: triu ng
332.245.598
375.437.526
13,0%
424.244.404
13,0%
10.782.402
12.393.780
14,9%
14.497.291
17,0%
4.724.952
5.192.955
9,9%
5.288.359
1,8%
15.507.354
17.586.735
13,4%
19.785.650
12,5%
Chi ph hot ng
(6.244.061)
(6.908.134)
10,6%
(7.611.344)
10,2%
9.263.293
10.678.601
15,3%
12.174.306
14,0%
(3.520.217)
(5.077.260)
44,2%
(5.713.408)
12,5%
5.743.076
5.601.340
-2,5%
6.460.899
15,3%
Li nhun thun
4.377.582
4.369.045
-0,2%
5.039.501
15,3%
26.200
2.317.417.076
NIM
2,6%
2,8%
2,9%
2.317.417.076
T sut li nhun gp
60%
61%
62%
31.800
23.300
-16,0%
-7,4%
-4,0%
182.844.207
8.648
60.716.327
2.881
S lng c php s hu
530.456.769
475.075.806
% s hu nc ngoi
2012
2013
CAR
14,8%
13,0%
Vn ch s hu/ Tng TS
10,0%
9,0%
10,0
11,1
83,1%
79,0%
2,4%
2,7%
40,1%
39,9%
10,7%
11,7%
ROA
1,1%
1,0%
ROE
12,5%
10,4%
H s vn
Cht lng ti sn
Tng TS c ri ro/ Tng TS
N xu nhm 3-5
25%
25%
2013
2014F
2015F
2.317.417.076
2.405.275.196
2.665.029.637
2.317.417.076
2.665.029.637
2.665.029.637
26.800
26.200
26.200
GT vn ha TT (triu ng)
62.106.778
69.823.776
69.823.776
GT vn ha TT (triu USD)
2.947
3.313
3.313
EPS (ng)
1.604
1.542
1.605
18.290
16.062
17.568
P/E (ln)
16,71
16,99
16,32
P/B (ln)
1,47
1,63
1,49
22,9%
Ngun: HSC
Tng ti sn/ Vn ch s hu
28%
NH GI
20,5%
% gii hn s hu nc ngoi
Ch s chnh
Kh nng sinh li
NIM
3,0%
2,6%
CIR
39,8%
40,3%
www.hsc.com.vn
Xin vui lng xem ni dung chi tit v xung t li ch v khuyn co cui bo co ny
BO CO NGN
14h 2014
2008
Th ba, ngy 8 thngJuly
7 nm
KQKD Q1 ca VCB ni chung st d kin vi li nhun trc thu tng 2,4%. Trin vng kh quan. Tip tc
duy tr nh gi Kh quan.
Nh vo y mnh cho vay DN quc doanh trong qu 2
m tng trng tn dng ca VCB 6 thng u nm c
tnh t 6,6%. ng thi, tng trng huy ng cng
mc cao mc d li sut huy ng ca VCB hin ti l
mc thp nht trong h thng ngn hng. H s NIM
c th mc ngang qu 1-2014 gip thu nhp li thun
tng trng dng. Cc mng hot ng khc ca
ngn hng hot ng n nh. Chng ti cho rng chi
ph trch lp d phng s tng do ngn hng chun
b sn sng trc nhng nh hng c th khi trin khai
Thng t 02 v 09, theo ch ng trong cng tc
qun tr ri ro tn dng v quyt lit trch lp d phng.
Cho c nm 2014, chng ti d bo li nhun trc
thu ca VCB s l 5.601 t ng (gim 2,5% so vi
nm 2013) vi gi nh tng trng tn dng t 15%
v tng trng huy ng l 13% so vi mc d bo
ca ngn hng i vi tng trng cho c tn dng v
huy ng l 13%. Chng ti cng gi nh chi ph trch
lp d phng s tng 44% y/y, ln 5.077 t ng do
ngn hng mong mun sm hon thnh trch lp d
phng cn thit trong giai on ny. Ngn hng cng
c k hoch nhanh chng m rng h thng v tng
th phn trn mng ngn hng bn l da trn li th
truyn thng v pht hnh th ghi n v th tn dng. T
l NPL ca ngn hng d bo di 3% nh ngn hng
tip tc thn trng trong kim sot cht lng tn dng.
C phiu VCB hin c P/B d phng 2014 l 1,6 ln so
vi mc P/B bnh qun ngnh l 1,1 ln. Chng ti cho
rng mc nh gi cao ca c phiu ny l hp l da
trn c s hot ng kinh doanh ca ngn hng hin
ti. Tuy nhin, sau khi tng n nh trong vi thng qua,
chng ti k vng c phiu s tng va phi trong thi
gian ti. Tip tc duy tr nh gi Kh quan.
Theo cc thng tin truyn thng, Vietcombank (VCB Kh quan) cng b mc tng trng tn dng tng
i cao, 6,6% cho giai on t u nm n thng
7/2014, tng ng mc d n l 292 nghn t ng.
Mc tng trng tn dng 6 thng u nm ca ngn
hng c cng b l con s kh ngc nhin do trc
n thng Nm tn dng tng trng mi ch t 3,63,7% (tng ng 284 nghn t ng). Trong khi cho
vay i vi cc doanh nghip va v nh c v chm,
chng ti cho rng mc tng tn dng ch yu nh tng
cho vay i vi SEO. Thc t, trong Q2/2014, chng
ti thy rng VCB k mt s hp ng ln v cung
cp cc khon vay mi vi m Ninh Bnh, PV Drilling,
Vinacomin v Tp on cao su Vit Nam. Vi li th l
thng hiu ngn hng mnh, huy ng t mc tng
trng khong 10-12% so vi thi im cui nm 2013.
Mc d vy, hin ti li sut huy ng ca VCB l thp
nht trn th trng, tng trng huy ng do c
www.hsc.com.vn
BO CO NGN
14h 2014
2008
Th ba, ngy 8 thngJuly
7 nm
2012
Thu nhp li
2013
%y/y
2014F
%y/y
2015F
%y/y
31.746.997
28.298.671
-11%
31.524.928
11%
36.893.215
17%
(20.792.904)
(17.516.269)
-16%
(19.131.147)
9%
(22.395.924)
17%
10.954.093
10.782.402
-2%
12.393.780
15%
14.497.291
17%
2.250.538
2.745.171
22%
3.156.947
15%
3.472.641
10%
(861.939)
(1.125.800)
31%
(1.294.670)
15%
(1.424.137)
10%
Li t hot ng dch v
1.388.599
1.619.371
17%
1.862.277
15%
2.048.504
10%
1.487.751
1.426.859
-4%
1.598.082
12%
1.677.986
5%
Chi ph li
Thu nhp li rng
Thu nhp t hot ng dch v
76.742
22.172
-71%
50.000
126%
50.000
0%
207.631
160.461
-23%
150.000
-7%
200.000
33%
525.098
934.285
78%
1.200.000
28%
1.000.000
-17%
468.583
561.804
20%
332.596
-41%
311.869
-6%
15.108.497
15.507.354
3%
17.586.735
13%
19.785.650
13%
Chi ph hot ng
(6.015.636)
(6.244.061)
4%
(6.908.134)
11%
(7.611.344)
10%
9.092.861
9.263.293
2%
10.678.601
15%
12.174.306
14%
(3.328.964)
(3.520.217)
6%
(5.077.260)
44%
(5.713.408)
13%
5.763.897
5.743.076
0%
5.601.340
-2,5%
6.460.899
15%
(1.336.691)
(1.365.494)
2%
(1.232.295)
-10%
(1.421.398)
15%
4.427.206
4.377.582
-1%
4.369.045
0%
5.039.501
15%
(23.500)
(19.530)
-17%
(19.492)
0%
(22.483)
15%
4.403.706
4.358.052
-1%
4.349.554
0%
5.017.018
15%
3
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Trang 3
Xin vui lng xem ni dung chi tit v xung t li ch v khuyn co cui bo co ny
BO CO NGN
14h 2014
2008
Th ba, ngy 8 thngJuly
7 nm
2012
2013
%y/y
2014F
%y/y
2015F
%y/y
5.627.307
6.059.673
8%
7.508.751
24%
8.484.888
13%
Tin gi ti NHNN
15.732.095
24.843.632
58%
18.771.876
-24%
16.969.776
-10%
65.712.726
91.737.049
40%
73.389.639
-20%
77.059.121
5%
520.876
195.270
-63%
232.858
19%
256.321
10%
521.239
196.158
-62%
233.746
19%
257.209
10%
(363)
(888)
145%
(888)
0%
(888)
0%
136.725
235.869.977
267.863.404
14%
309.291.181
15%
361.870.681
17%
241.162.675
274.314.209
14%
315.461.340
15%
369.089.768
17%
(5.292.698)
(6.450.805)
22%
(6.170.160)
-4%
(7.219.087)
17%
Chng khon u t
78.521.304
64.463.096
-18%
77.343.420
20%
85.080.256
10%
73.945.195
47.127.209
-36%
56.535.366
20%
62.188.903
10%
4.843.173
17.360.833
258%
20.833.000
20%
22.916.300
10%
(267.064)
(24.946)
-91%
(24.946)
0%
(24.946)
0%
Gp vn u t di hn
3.020.788
3.041.790
1%
3.159.591
4%
3.283.282
4%
733.232
707.078
-4%
722.064
2%
722.064
0%
2.324.794
2.371.002
2%
2.473.817
4%
2.597.508
5%
(37.238)
(36.290)
-3%
(36.290)
0%
(36.290)
0%
Ti sn c nh
3.659.582
4.085.686
12%
4.531.196
11%
5.017.749
11%
Ti sn c nh hu hnh
2.304.003
2.556.047
11%
2.796.500
9%
3.057.488
9%
Ti sn c nh v hnh
1.355.579
1.529.639
13%
1.734.697
13%
1.960.261
13%
Ti sn khc
5.810.418
6.567.707
13%
7.423.696
13%
8.391.248
13%
Tng ti sn
414.475.073
468.994.032
13%
501.652.207
7%
566.413.322
13%
24.806.433
32.622.411
32%
35.884.652
10%
37.678.885
5%
Cc khon n CP v NHNN
Tin gi ca cc TCTD khc
Tin gi ca khch hng
34.066.352
44.044.289
29%
28.303.963
-36%
36.400.070
29%
284.414.568
332.245.598
17%
375.437.526
13%
424.244.404
13%
5.461
Vn ti tr, y thc u t
Cng c n phi sinh
Chng ch tin gi & tri phiu pht hnh
2.027.567
2.013.597
-1%
2.013.597
0%
2.013.597
0%
Cc khon n khc
27.449.714
15.532.445
-43%
17.085.690
10%
19.135.972
12%
Vn v cc qu
41.553.063
42.386.065
2%
42.806.746
1%
46.820.360
9%
Vn iu l
23.174.171
23.174.171
0%
26.650.296
15%
26.650.296
0%
9.201.397
9.201.397
0%
9.201.397
0%
9.201.397
0%
22%
4.120.985
19%
4.622.687
12%
Thng d vn c phn
C phiu qu
45.160
Cc qu khc
2.839.040
3.468.552
121.228
123.853
2%
82.306
-34%
82.306
0%
72.800
82.306
13%
123.853
50%
123.853
0%
6.144.427
6.290.626
2%
2.627.908
-58%
6.139.821
134%
151.915
149.627
-2%
120.033
-20%
120.034
0%
414.475.073
468.994.032
13%
501.652.206
7%
566.413.322
13%
Chnh lch t gi hi oi
nh gi li ti sn
Li nhun gi li
Li ch ca c ng thiu s
Tng n phi tr v vn ch s hu
4
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Trang 4
Xin vui lng xem ni dung chi tit v xung t li ch v khuyn co cui bo co ny
BO CO NGN
CH S CHNH
14h 2014
2008
Th ba, ngy 8 thngJuly
7 nm
2012
2013
2014F
2015F
391
406
426
436
13.637
13.842
14.257
14.827
CAR
14,8%
13,0%
11,5%
10,7%
Vn ch s hu/ Tng ti sn
10,0%
9,0%
8,8%
8,4%
Tng ti sn/ Vn ch s hu
10,0
11,1
11,4
11,9
83,1%
79,0%
80,3%
80,7%
Quy m
S im giao dch
S lng nhn vin
H s an ton vn
Cht lng ti sn
Ti sn ri ro/ Tng tin gi
T l n xu nhm 3-5
2,4%
2,7%
2,9%
2,7%
T l n xu nhm 2-5
16,3%
10,3%
17,6%
17,4%
13,4%
22,8%
11,1%
11,2%
91,4%
86,3%
67,4%
72,6%
40,1%
39,9%
35,3%
33,2%
LDR
84,2%
81,1%
83,6%
86,6%
78,1%
79,2%
82,4%
85,3%
10,7%
11,7%
7,0%
7,9%
58,2%
58,5%
62,9%
65,2%
Hiu qu s dng ti sn
Tng doanh thu/ Tng ti sn bnh qun
9,4%
7,7%
7,8%
8,2%
12,0%
12,8%
11,4%
11,5%
93,6%
92,4%
92,4%
93,4%
Kh nng sinh li
ROA
1,1%
1,0%
0,9%
0,9%
ROE
12,5%
10,4%
10,2%
11,2%
6,0%
4,5%
4,5%
4,8%
8,7%
6,9%
7,0%
7,4%
2,7%
2,4%
2,6%
2,6%
NIM
3,0%
2,6%
2,8%
2,9%
1,6%
1,5%
1,5%
1,5%
72,5%
69,5%
70,5%
73,3%
CIR
39,8%
40,3%
39,3%
38,5%
13,0%
13,2%
7,0%
12,9%
15,2%
13,7%
15,0%
17,0%
25,3%
16,8%
13,0%
13,0%
T l tng trng
45,1%
2,0%
1,0%
9,4%
Tng trng vn ch s hu
1,2%
-0,4%
-2,5%
15,3%
4,9%
-1,0%
-0,2%
15,3%
5
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Trang 5
Xin vui lng xem ni dung chi tit v xung t li ch v khuyn co cui bo co ny
Khuyn co
Bo co ny c vit v pht hnh bi HSC hoc mt trong cc chi nhnh phn phi ti Vit Nam v nc ngoi. Cc kin, d bo
v c tnh ch th hin quan im ca ngi vit ti thi im pht hnh, khng c xem l quan im ca HSC v c th thay i m
khng cn thng bo. HSC khng c ngha v phi cp nht, sa i bo co ny di mi hnh thc cng nh thng bo vi ngi c
trong trng hp cc quan im, d bo v c tnh trong bo co ny thay i hoc tr nn khng chnh xc. Thng tin trong bo co
ny c thu thp t nhiu ngun khc nhau v chng ti khng m bo v s hon chnh cng nh chnh xc ca thng tin.
Gi c v cc cng c ti chnh c th thay i m khng bo trc. HSC c th s dng cc nghin cu trong bo co ny cho hot
ng mua bn chng khon t doanh hoc mua bn chng khon cho cc qu m HSC ang qun l. HSC c th giao dch cho chnh
cng ty theo nhng gi v giao dch ngn hn ca cc chuyn gia phn tch trong bo co ny v cng c th tham gia vo cc giao
dch chng khon tri ngc vi kin t vn v quan im th hin trong bo co ny.
Cc thng tin cng nh kin trong bo co khng mang tnh cht mi cho mua hay bn bt c chng khon, quyn chn, hp ng
tng lai hay cng c phi sinh no. Cn b ca HSC c th c cc li ch ti chnh i vi cc chng khon v cc cng c ti chnh c
lin quan c cp trong bo co. Bo co nghin cu ny c vit vi mc tiu cung cp nhng thng tin khi qut. Bo co ny
khng nhm ti nhng mc tiu u t c th, tnh trng ti chnh c th hay nhu cu c th ca bt k ngi no nhn c hoc c
bo co ny. Nh u t phi lu rng gi chng khon lun bin ng, c th ln hoc xung. Nhng din bin trong qu kh, nu
c, khng hm cho nhng kt qu tng lai.
Cc cng c ti chnh c cp trong bo co c th s khng ph hp vi tt c nh u t. Nh u t phi c quyt nh ca
ring mnh bng cch tham kho cc nh t vn ti chnh c lp nu cn thit v da trn tnh hnh ti chnh v mc tiu u t c th
ca mnh.
Bo co ny l ti sn ca HSC v khng c cng b rng ri ra cng chng, v vy khng ai c php sao chp, ti sn xut, pht
hnh cng nh ti phn phi bt k ni dung no ca bo co v bt k mc ch no nu khng c vn bn chp thun ca HSC. Khi
s dng cc ni dung c HSC chp thun, xin vui lng ghi r ngun khi trch dn. Mi c nhn, t chc s chu trch nhim i vi
HSC v bt k tn tht hoc thit hi no m HSC hoc khch hng ca HSC phi chu do bt k hnh vi vi phm theo Khuyn co ny
v theo quy nh ca php lut.
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