Name:NatalieBoylePeriod:3 Math2

Mathematics Write-up

SpinnerGameandPullingCards

Problem Statement:
AlandBettystartoutplayingagameinvolvingaspinner.Itissplitupintotwounevensections.
Oneareaisshaded,about1/5ofthetotalcircle,andwhenitlandsonthatarea,Bettymust
payAl$1.25.Whenthespinnerlandsontheotherunshadedarea(4/5ofthecircle)Almust
payBetty$0.30.Wewereaskedtodeterminethetheoretical,observedandweighted
probabilityandalsotheexpectedvalue.

Process:
Describewhatyoudidinattemptingtosolvetheproblem.Dothispartevenifyoudidnot
solvetheproblem.

Istartedthisproblembysolvingforthetheoreticalprobabilityfirst.Itwasntthatdifficult.AllI
hadtodowassplitthespinnerintoequalpiecesanddeterminethetotalamountofpieces
thenwhichoneswereAlsandwhichoneswereBettys.Thentofindtheweightedprobability
mypartnerand25rounds/spinsandrecordedtheanswers.Wecalculatedtheobserved
probabilitybycountinguphowmanytimesitlandedoneachpersonandputitintoafraction
over25.Lastlywecalculatedtheexpectedvaluebytakingthetheoreticalprobabilityand
multiplyingitbytheamountofmoneytheplayerwouldgainwhenthatsectionwaslandedon.

Solution:
Statethesolutionclearlyasyoucan.Explainhowyouknowyouransweriscorrect.
SpinnerGame:
TheoreticalProbability
P(Alssection)=1/5
P(Bettyssection)=4/5

ObservedProbability:
P(Alssection)=4/25
P(Bettyssection)=21/25

Name:NatalieBoylePeriod:3 Math2

TheoreticalWeightedProbability:
P(Al)=1/5(1.25)=$0.25
P(Betty)=4/5(.30)=$0.24
Alhasagreaterexpectedvaluewhichmeanshewillmostlikelywininthelongrun.

ObservedWeightedProbability:
P(Al)=4/25x(1.25)=$0.2
P(Betty)=21/25x(.30)=$0.252
Inourtrial,BettyactuallygotmoremoneythanAlforeveryspin.

Extension:
MyExtension:ArchibaldandBeatriceareplayingagamethatinvolvesdrawingacardfroma
standarddeck.Aftereachdraw,thecardisreturnedtothedeck.(Itdoesntmatterwhopullsit
onlymatterswhichcardisdrawn.)Ifthecarddrawnfromthedeckisajack,thenBeatrice
paysArchibald$0.20.Ifthecardisaheart,thenArchibaldpaysBeatrice$0.08.Ifneitherajack
noraheartisdrawn,thenArchibaldandBeatriceeachgiveapennytocharity.
WhatistheexpectedvalueperdrawforArchibald,forBeatrice,andforthecharity?
MyProcess:TodeterminetheanswertothequestionaboveIfoundthetheoreticalprobability,
observedprobability,theweightedtheoreticalprobability,andtheweightedobserved
probability.
TofindthetheoreticalprobabilityItookamountofcardswithjacksandputitoutofthetotal
amountofcards.Ithendidthesamewiththeamountofcardsthatwereheartsandforthose
thatwereneitherjacksnorhearts.Ifoundtheweightedtheoreticalprobabilitybymultiplyingthe
theoreticalprobabilityofeachpossibilitybytheamountthepersonwouldwinifthattypeof
cardwaspulled.Theproductiscalledtheexpectedvalue.Thegreaterexpectedvalueisthe
personwhowouldwinmoremoneyinthelongrun.
TodeterminetheobservedprobabilityIdrewfromadeckofcards(justlikeArchibaldand
Bettyhadbeendoing)20times.IputhowevermanytimesIdrewajack,aheart,orneither
overtheamountoftimesIdrew.Ifoundtheweightedobservedprobabilitybymultiplyingthe
observedprobabilitybytheamounteachpersonwouldwinifthatcardwaspulled.Thegreater
expectedvalue,theproductoftheequationIdid,isthepersonwhowouldwinmoremoneyin
thelongrun.
Solution:
TheoreticalProbability:Theamountofthattypeofcard(Jacks,Hearts,orNeither)overthe
totalnumberofcardsinthedeck.
P(Hearts)=13/52
P(Jacks)=4/52
P(Other)=34/52
WeightedTheoreticalProbability:Theoreticalprobabilitytimestheamounttheywouldwinif
thattypeofcardischosen.
P(Hearts)=13/52(.08)=$0.02
P(Jacks)=4/52(.20)=$0.01538
P(Other)=34/52(.02)=$0.013

Name:NatalieBoylePeriod:3 Math2

Ifweonlypullonce,Beatriceearns$0.02,Archibaldearns$0.01538,andcharityreceives
$0.013.ThereforeBeatricewouldearnthemostamountofmoneyinthelongrun,butonlyby
alittlebit.
ObservedProbability:Thenumberoftimesatypeofcardcameupoutofthe26pullsIdid
duringmyexperiment.
P(Hearts)=7/26
P(Jacks)=3/26
P(Other)=16/26
WeightedObservedProbability:Observedprobabilitytimestheamounttheywouldwinif
thattypeofcardischosen.
P(Hearts)=7/26(.08)=$0.023
P(Jacks)=3/26(.20)=$0.021
P(Other)=16/26(.02)=$0.012
Ifweonlypullonce,Beatriceearns$0.023,Archibaldearns$0.021,andcharityreceives
$0.012.ThereforeBeatricewouldearnthemostmoneyinthelongrun.

Connection:
WhatistherelationshipbetweenExpectedValue,ObservedWeightedProbability,&
TheoreticalWeightedProbability?Whataresomereallifeexamplesinwhichtheseconcepts
arebeingused?

Weightedprobabilityisanyprobability,eithertheoreticalorobserved,thathasavalueattached
toit.ObservedWeightedProbabilityistheoutcomeofthetrialconductedmultipliedbythe
value(usuallymoney)wonorlost.TheoreticalWeightedProbabilityisverysimilarexceptitis
whattheoutcomesshouldorareexpectedtobemultipliedbythevalueassignedtothat
outcome.Therearemanyreallifeexamplesofthese,manyinvolvecasinosorgambling
games.Moneyisbetontheoutcomemakingitaweightedprobability.

Evaluation:
Discussyourpersonalreactiontotheproblem.

Workingonthisassignmenttaughtmeaboutweightedprobability.Beforethespinnergame,I
didnothaveanindepthknowledgeofweightedprobability.Iwasfamiliarwithobservedand
theoreticalbutdoingthishelpedmegainadeeperunderstandingofbothconcepts.
ThroughoutthisassignmentInoticedmyselffocusingalotonbeingsystematic.Therewere
manytimeswhenwewereusingmultipleequationsanddifferentvaluessoIhadtomakesure

Name:NatalieBoylePeriod:3 Math2

Iwasfollowingthecorrectformatandusingthecorrectdata.IfIcouldchangethis
assignment,Iwouldprobablyjustshortenitalittlebit,notthecontentbutthetimespentonit.I
feltwespentawhileonthisandwecouldvegonethroughitslightlyfasterwithoutloosingany
contentorunderstanding.Overallthough,IdidenjoyworkingonthisandIthoughtitwasgood
difficultylevel.Nottoohardortooeasy.