GROWTH IN

INDIA 1950-
1990
Distinguishing Three Phases of
Growth
How do we divide these
40years into a small number of
sub-periods (phases) for
orderly discussion?
Table 1
Chart (a few slides later)
 GDP
GROWTH
ANUALLY

Observation:
Inconsistent
growth
TABLE -1
 How to Divide into Sub-
periods
 According to:

?
Five Year Plans


 Decades
 The Global Economic Environment
 Differences in the Growth
Performance
Our Preferred Division
 According to the sharpness of
differences in the growth rates
 We distinguish three phases.

Phase I: 1950-65
Phase II: 1965-81
Phase III: 1981-88
5

2 GROWTH RATE
1

0
Phase Phase Phase
1 2 3
Sectoral Growth
Figure 2: Growth Rates of
Sectoral GDP

100%
80%
60% SERVICE

40% INDUSTRIAL
AGRICULTURAL
20%
0%
Phase Phase Phase
1 2 3
 5 YEAR PLAN
6
PERFORMANCE
5

1st PLAN 2nd PLAN 3rd PLAN 4th PLAN 5th PLAN 6th PLAN 7th PLAN
Table 2 : The Composition of the
GDP
 THE
COMPOSITION OF
1980-81
1950-51
THE GDP
26% 27%
1964-65 1987-90AGRICULTURE & RE &
A G R IC U LTU
AGRICULTUR
ALLIEDA LLIEDE &
AGRICULTURE &
ALLIED
32% ALLIED
32% 35%
30%
IN D USTR Y
INDUSTRY
43%
INDUSTRY
8% INDUSTRY

M A NUFA C TUR ING

MMANUFACTURING
ANUFACTURING
52% MANUFACTURING
11%
14% SER V IC ES
SERVICES
SERVICES
19% SERVICES
12% 16%
22%
21%
 AS OTHER SECTORS DEVELOPING
AGRICULTURAL & ALLIED ARE LACKING
BEHIND

 SERVICE SECTOR, MANUFACTURING &

INDUSTRIES ARE GROWING AT
TREMENDOUS PACE

 ALTHOUGH INDIAN ECONOMY GROWING

BUT IT HAS PEAKS AND VALLEYS UNDER ITS
PROGRESS

 ECONOMY ALTHOUGH DEVELOPING BUT

NOT BALANCING ITS COMPOSITIONS