2014 MIDTERM ELECTIONS: The 8 governor races that matter

Tight gubernatorial races have sprouted up all over the map this fall, and many if not all of them will prove to be an
early look at state-by-state political trends ahead of the 2016 presidential race.

BY ADAM EDELMAN NEW YORK DAILY NEWS Friday, October 10, 2014, 7:00 AM

Wisconsin, whose state capitol building is pictured, is one of a number of states with tight gubernatorial races this fall that
could go a long way in setting the political tone for President Obamas last two years in office.

They are not getting the same attention as the battle for the Senate, but a handful of gubernatorial elections this November
could go a long way toward shaping Americas political landscape heading into the 2016 race for President.

Several Republican governors eyeing a run for the White House must win reelection first. How each state goes in 2014
could also be an early indicator of the way it will vote in two years, during what promises to be a competitive presidential
race.

Here are the eight gubernatorial races that matter in 2014:


1. Arizona (open seat)

Republican state Treasurer Doug Ducey is running neck-and-neck with businessman
Fred DuVal, a Democrat, to succeed conservative Republican Gov. Jan Brewer, who is
retiring after two terms.

Democrat: Fred DuVal Republican: Doug Ducey


Why is it so close?

Despite having a conservative electorate, Arizona has a history of electing Democratic governors, including former U.S.
Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano and ex-Secretary of the Interior Bruce Babbitt. A rough six-candidate
Republican primary left Ducey bruised heading into the general election, providing Democrats with a legitimate shot at
retaking the post.

Early line: A recent Real Clear Politics average of polls shows Ducey with a lead among likely voters of 0.5 percentage
points.

2. Colorado

Incumbent Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper is facing a competitive challenge from
former Republican U.S. Rep. Bob Beauprez.

Democrat: Gov. John Hickenlooper (incumbent)
Republican: Rep. Bob Beauprez (challenger)

Why is it so close?

Hickenlooper, whose state voted to legalize the recreational use of marijuana last year, had actually opposed the effort. But
as governor, he was nevertheless charged with implementing the law, resulting in steady criticism from Republicans and
social moderates opposed to legal pot about the potential long-term effects of the legislation. Hes attempted to distance
himself from the law, but the backlash might prove to be too much.

Early line: A recent Real Clear Politics average of polls shows Beauprez with a lead among likely voters of 0.5 percentage
points.



3. Connecticut

Incumbent Democratic Gov. Dannell Malloy is looking to fight off Republican Tom
Foley, a former ambassador to Ireland, in a race in the traditionally liberal state that has
tightened in recent weeks.

Democrat: Gov. Dannell Malloy (incumbent) Republican: Tom Foley (challenger)

Why is it so close?

The race is a rematch of the 2010 gubernatorial election, which Malloy won by fewer than 6,500 votes. Polling has
tightened in recent weeks as Foley, a former businesses executive, has been successful in his efforts to attract Democratic
voters in wealthy suburban areas of the state.

Early line: A recent Real Clear Politics average of polls shows Malloy with a lead among likely voters of 2.3 percentage
points.


4. Florida

Incumbent Republican Gov. Rick Scott is narrowly trailing Charlie Crist, the former
Republican governor in the Sunshine State who switched parties and is now running as a
Democrat.

Democrat: Charlie Crist (challenger) Republican: Gov. Rick Scott (incumbent)

Why is it so close?

Scott has endured a tumultuous first term as governor and has long been considered vulnerable. Crist, who left the GOP in
2010 to run (unsuccessfully) against Marco Rubio in the U.S. Senate race as an independent, joined the Democratic Party in
2012. As such, hes enjoyed party-specific benefits as a candidate like campaigning and fund-raising with former President
Clinton. Crist has also widely drawn on his experience and success from his first stint as governor.

Early line: A recent Real Clear Politics average of polls shows Crist with a lead among likely voters of 0.6 percentage
points.


5. Illinois

Incumbent Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn is running for reelection to a second full term but
faces a tough challenge from private equity whiz Bruce Rauner, a Republican.

Democrat: Gov. Pat Quinn (incumbent) Republican: Bruce Rauner (challenger)


Why is it so close?

Quinn, who succeeded convicted Democratic Gov. Rod Blagojevich in 2009, narrowly won his first election in 2010 and is
still struggling in the reliably blue state after falling short during his first term to curb Illinois fiscal problems. Rauners
campaign has focused largely on improving the states economic situation and education system messages that appear to
have resonated well with a large chunk of still undecided voters.

Early line: A recent Real Clear Politics average of polls shows Quinn with a lead among likely voters of 1.5 percentage
points.




6. Kansas

One-term incumbent Gov. Sam Brownback, a conservative Republican with stints in both the
U.S. House of Representatives and Senate under his belt, is trailing his Democratic challenger,
Rep. Paul Davis.

Democrat: Rep. Paul Davis (challenger) Republican: Gov. Sam Brownback (incumbent)

Why is it so close?

Despite having a consistent legacy as a solidly Republican state, Kansas has nevertheless elected a handful of Democratic
governors in the last 50 years. Brownback, a well-known name in the Sunflower State due to his having served in the
Senate and House, won his election by a landslide in 2010, but has faced mounting criticism over a controversial first term.
Moderates have expressed dissatisfaction with the uber-conservatives decisions to sign into law a series of strict anti-
abortion bills and drastically cut funding for the arts. Davis, a popular moderate congressman from the Lawrence area, has
been endorsed by more than 100 Republican Kansas politicians unhappy with Brownback.

Early line: A recent Real Clear Politics average of polls shows Davis with a lead among likely voters of 3.6 percentage
points.


7. Massachusetts (open seat)

Popular Democratic incumbent Gov. Deval Patrick is not running for a third term, creating
an intense battle for the post between well-liked state Attorney General Martha Coakley and
Charlie Baker, a Republican health care executive and the son of a former politician.

Democrat: Martha Coakley Republican: Charlie Baker

Why is it so close?

Massachusetts has a long history of electing both liberal Democrats (like Patrick) and moderate Republicans (like 2012
presidential nominee Mitt Romney) to the governorship, rendering the current contest utterly unpredictable. Pundits have
forecast the race will come down to the candidates positions on a small number of important, and largely divisive, issues
like gun control.

Early line: A recent Real Clear Politics average of polls shows Coakley with a lead among likely voters of 0.5 percentage
points.

8. Wisconsin

Incumbent Republican Gov. Scott Walker, who overcame a 2012 recall effort to oust him, is
again in hot water, facing a strong challenge from Democratic business executive Mary
Burke.

Democrat: Mary Burke (challenger) Republican: Gov. Scott Walker (incumbent)

Why is it so close?

Walker, who in 2012 became the first governor in U.S. history to survive a recall election, continues to face many of the
same criticisms that contributed to the recall in the first place. A comprehensively conservative agenda which included
eliminating most collective bargaining rights for state employees, a major controversy alienated a plethora of centrists
and moderate Republicans in the critical swing state and created lasting disdain for Walker, whose ongoing flirtation with a
2016 presidential run isnt sitting well with voters, either. But Burke, a former top executive at Trek Bicycle, hasnt been
able to consistently capitalize on Walkers flaws, and has been criticized herself as uninspiring and inadequately qualified.

Early line: A recent Real Clear Politics average of polls shows Walker with a lead among likely voters of 1.8 percentage
points.