Amber Riddle

Garth Butcher
Quantitative Reasoning: Math 1030
December 2, 2014

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Does my vote really matter in a Presidential Election?

My final project is going to discuss and determine whether my individual vote matters,

mathematically, in the Presidential elections. I chose this topic because I am genuinely interested
in this subject. I also think it would be an interesting topic for others to read. My hypothesis is as
follows: I do not believe that my individual vote matters, in terms of numbers and mathematics,
in the Presidential election. I do, however, believe that it does matter in different aspects, such as;
morally, civically, and ethically.

I plan to collect data from my local area (state, county, district, etc.) as well as data from a

national standpoint. I will compare my individual vote to all the data I am collecting and
determine if there is any significance to my one vote. I will find total numbers of voters in my age
group, from my city, and state. I will collect and compare numbers from different states and age
groups, as well as the total number of votes in the electoral college. I will do this with contrasting
scenarios. 1: The popular vote. 2. The not so popular vote.

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Calculations and Data:

Total number of registered voters in Utah: 1,283,526

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Total number of ballots cast in Utah for 2012 Presidential election: 1,028,786
Total number of eligible voters in the United States: 206,072,000
Total number of registered voters in the United States: 146,311,000
Total number of Americans who voted in the 2012 Presidential election: 131,144,000
Total number of Electoral votes: 538
Total number of Electoral votes for Utah: 5
Percentage of Americans who voted in 2012: 64%
Percentage of Utahns who voted in 2012: 53.1% ( Utah had the lowest voter turnout in
the 2012 Presidential elections )
Number of Electoral votes it takes to win an election: 270 or more

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What does it all mean?

The electoral college and how it works: Each State holds an election for president in

which all eligible citizens vote for a "ticket" of candidates that includes a candidate for president
and for vice president. The outcome of the vote in each state determines a slate of electors who
then, in turn, make the actual choice of president and vice president. Each state has as many
electors as it has senators and members of the House of Representatives, for a total of 538.
There is no national election for president, only separate state elections. For a candidate to

become president, he or she must win enough state elections to garner a majority of electoral
votes, Presidential campaigns, therefore, focus on winning states, not on winning a national
majority.

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Comparing the numbers:
Out of 1,283,526 registered voters in Utah, 1,028,786 of them cast their ballot in 2012. That is
80.1% of registered Utah voters. My vote is 0.0000972% of the total voters in Utah. This
number is not a significant comparison. If you think that is small, lets take a look at the
comparison to voters in the United States.
1 out of a whopping 146,311,000 is 0.000000683% of the total voters in the United States.
Thats a very insignificant comparison to the total votes that are counted.
In my age group, which is 25-34, 66.4% of them cast their vote for 2012. My age group makes a
significant comparison when counting votes, but does not specify which party they vote for. This
number doesnt do much for my calculations. It just shows that if I find a reasonable way to
convince my peers that their vote matters, we may be able to improve voter turnout in my age
group.
Lets say, theoretically, that I cast my vote for the popular vote, causing our electoral votes to sway
one sided. Utah has only 5 of the electoral votes, out of a total 538 electoral votes in the United
States. This is 0.9% of the total electoral college. Less than 1% ! That isnt significant at all. Even
if the results ended up in one state having the deciding factor in a dead tie, it sure wouldnt be

Utah, and it sure wouldnt be my individual vote. In the chart below I have broken down the
percentage of electoral votes by state. These percentages add up to the entirety of the electoral
college.

There are other factors to consider when asking this question, besides the mathematical

data I have collected. I think other than mathematically speaking, that my individual vote does
matter. If we look at the voter turnout in my age group and in the age groups close to mine, they
arent very significant. The 18-24 age group saw 58.5% voter turnout for the 2012 Presidential
election. The 24-34 age group saw 66.4% voter turnout for 2012 as well.

Lets say I could convince 4 of my peers that their vote does matter, and they convinced 4

other peers, and they convinced 4 more, etc If this went on in a group of people and
completed a cycle of 11, all of them decided to vote, the number of voters in this scenario would
be 4,194,304 ! Out of the 146,311,000 registered voters in the United States, this number is
almost 3% of those. Thats equivalent to the percentage of electoral votes that the entire state of
Georgia has (17). Now, lets say I convince them and the cycle is completed 9 times through, in
my state alone, there would be 262,144 more voters in the 18-34 age group. Thats 25.4% of the
votes that are collected in Utah.

If this were to happen in theory, it has the potential to make a significant impact on the

overall Presidential election. In 2012, President Obama won 332 of the electoral votes and was
elected into office. This is 62% of the total votes. Say for instance that I can get this theory to
work and the cycle goes through 13 times. That is 4 people, telling 4 more people, those people
telling 4 more people, and so on and so forth, 13 times through. Mathematically that is 4 to the
13th power. The new number of voters would be 67,108,864. This is 33% of the eligible voters
in the United States, not just registered. The image below shows the electoral votes won by each
candidate in 2012. This helps give you an idea of how many electoral votes each state has, and
the potential to change their minds," so to speak.

Electoral votes won by each candidate in 2012 Presidential Election

If we could make that much of an impact it would be as if the entire population of

California and Arizona decided to go out at vote. That is 65 electoral votes that could potentially
change the outcome of an election. If that were to happen and those votes counted towards
Romney instead of Obama, Romney would have won the election with 271 electoral votes.
Thats the minimum number of people that could potentially change the outcome of the
Presidential election. So, in this scenario, my individual vote has the potential to change the
outcome of a Presidential election. This is power in numbers.

There has been a lot I have learned while doing this project. There are scenarios that I

havent even begun to deeply investigate that could potentially change the impact that my one
vote could have on a Presidential election. Where do swing states come into play? What if all the
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people that I have convinced to vote, dont vote the way I assume they will? What happens when
a third candidate is added into the equation? The ultimate goal behind this project was to
educate myself on the importance of voting, especially the younger generations, and determine if
there was a way of making it matter. I knew that an individual vote wouldnt mathematically
change the outcome of an election, but there were other factors that came into play while
collecting data. This project has shed light on potential things that could ultimately make one
individual vote matter a lot more than you would think.

In conclusion I ask the question, What does all of this mean? It means you need to

educate yourself on the things that are important to you and go out at vote. Even if you think it
doesnt matter it does.

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Bibliography:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:ElectoralCollege2012.svg
http://www.statisticbrain.com/voting-statistics/
http://www.sltrib.com/news/1873023-155/utah-had-3rd-lowest-voter-turnout-among
http://elections.nbcnews.com/ns/politics/2012/all/president/
http://www.learnnc.org/lp/media/lessons/davidwalbert7232004-02/electoralcollege.html
http://www.econedlink.org/lessons/index.php?lid=576&type=student

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