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MACS TROPICAL WEATHER BLOG 2014 ATLANTIC

HURRICANE MTWB HURRIREPORT

This report was prepared by Michaelangelo H., creator and Chief Tropical Weather
Blogger, and Cheryl Ashmore (Super Typhoon Haiyan) of Macs Tropical Weather
Blog

Copyright 2014. All rights reserved. Macs Tropical Weather Blog

Page 0

Visit us: www.macstropicalweather.weebly.com

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MACS TROPICAL
WEATHER BLOG 2014
ATLANTIC HURRICANE
MTWB HURRIREPORT
TABLE OF CONTENTS
I.

COVER PAGE (PAGE 0)

II.

TABLE OF CONTENTS (PAGE 1)

ABOUT
MACS
TROPICAL
WEATHER
BLOG
Mac's Tropical Weather
Blog was created on
June 19 2013 by
Michaelangelo H. Our
purpose is to give our

III.

INTRODUCTION (PAGE 2)

opinions on systems in
the Atlantic, Eastern

IV.

OVERALL ANALYSIS (PAGE 3 - 4)

V.

FEATURED SYSTEMS (PAGES 5 10)

Pacific, and Western

Pacific and hopefully one
day, across the globe!

VI.

FORECAST COMPARISONS (PAGES 11 -

We are committed to
giving you the latest on

13)

all news in the tropics

VII. CONCLUSION (PAGE 14)

and much more in the

future.

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INTRODUCTION

The 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season was a below-average seasons with: eight named
systems, six Hurricanes (74+mph), and two Major Hurricanes (111+mph). This makes
one of the seasons fewest amount of formed systems since 19971.

The three strongest storms of the 2014 season were Gonzalo, Edouard, and Arthur2.
However, the only one that made impact on the United States was Hurricane Arthur on
July 4 2014. (Refer to Featured Systems for further details).

In the rest of this report, we will have an overall analysis of the season and a section
of featured storms with information on about. Furthermore, we will conduct forecast
comparisons in which we will compare our overall seasonal forecasts.

Oskin, Becky. Quiet 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Comes to a Close. 29

Sept. 2014. Web. 18 Dec. 2014.
2
National Hurricane Center. Monthly Atlantic Tropical Weather Summary. 1 Dec. 2014. Web. 18 Dec. 2014

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OVERALL ANALYSIS
In the 2014 Hurricane Season, there was eight named systems, six hurricanes, and two
major hurricanes3. This season was below-average and some history was made in the
process. The first system to form, Arthur, formed on July 1st 2014 and the last system to form
was Hanna, a short lived tropical storm, on October 27th 20144.
The impacts of the 2014 Hurricane Season are the following. The estimated cost of damage
from the 2014 tropical cyclones is $400 million5. Also, the preliminary amount of deaths this
season is fourteen.6,7,8,9,10,11,12
A tenacious amount of dry air and wind shear created inhabitable conditions in the Atlantic
Basin resulting in a below-average season. Furthermore, there was cooler than average sea
surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic this season which made it more difficult for tropical
disturbances to gain strength and become classified. 13
These conditions resulted in a below-average season and make it one of the seasons with
the fewest storms since 199714.
The three strongest systems this season were Arthur, Edouard, and Gonzalo. The only
system to impact in the United States this season was Hurricane Arthur when it stuck North
Carolina and South Carolina on July 4 2014.
3

Leberfinger, Mark. 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Closes Below Normal Despite Two Major Hurricanes. 4
Dec. 2014. Web. 19 Dec. 2014.
4
. 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Review. National Hurricane Center. 26 Nov. 2014. Web.19. Dec. 2014.
5
2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Review. National Hurricane Center. 26 Nov. 2014. Web. 19. Dec.2014
6
Arthur Power Outage May Have Contributed to Woodstock Death 9 Jul. 2014. CBC News. Web. 19. Dec.
2014.
7
Dolan, Andy,; Webb, Sam,; Cockroft, Steph;. Hurricane Bertha Claims UK Victim Killed After Being Hit In The
Head By Boats Boam As He Sailed in Gail Force Winds. DailyMail. 10 Aug. 2014. Web. 19 Dec. 2014.
8
Associated Press. Hurricane Cristobal Kills 7: Two Swimmers Die in Rip Currents Off U.S. East Coast. The
Weather Channel. 28 Aug. 2014. Web. 19 Dec. 2014.
9
52-Year-Old Dies In OC Rip Current. Delmarva Now. 18 Sept. 2014. Web. 19 Dec. 2014.
10
Fitzpatrick, Judy; Danica Coto. 1 Dead As Hurricane Strengthens, Aims For Bermuda. Associated Press. 14
Oct. 2014. Web. 19 Dec. 2014.
11
Pleasance, Chris; Mullin, Gemma;. Three People Killed And Another Five Injured Including Two Children As
Hurricane Gonzalo Batters Britain With 108mph Winds And Rain. DailyMail. 21. Oct. 2014. Web. 19 Dec. 2014.
12
Perry, Keith. Hurricane Bertha: Yachtsman Killed After Being Hit On The Head By Boat's Boom. The
Telegraph. 11 Aug. 2014. Web. 19 Dec. 2014
13
Schleifstein, Mark. Slow Hurricane Season upcoming wet winter due to El-Nino-like conditions, forecasters
say. Nola. 30 Nov. 2014. Web 19 Dec. 2014.
14
Oskin, Becky. Quiet 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Comes to a Close. Live Science. 29
Sept. 2014. Web. 18 Dec. 2014.

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OVERALL ANALYSIS (CONTINUED.)

Nevertheless, as Hurricane Arthur proves, residents and governments should be prepared
for the impact of this interesting phenomenon of tropical cyclones. Even a below-average
season can create catastrophic effects.

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FEATURED SYSTEMS
There are six storms that are featured in this report: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Edouard, Fay,
and Gonzolo.

Hurricane Arthur
On June 27th 2014, the National Hurricane
Center began to monitor a non-tropical low that
would later become Arthur. Arthur began as a nontropical system, part of a fontal boundary moving
through the U.S. Once this non-tropical entity
managed to split from the front and move into the
North Carolina coast moving South-Eastward. This
allowed for the low to slowly acquire tropical
characteristics. Therefore, on July 1st 2014, the low
obtained enough convection and tropical
characteristics to be upgraded to a Tropical
Depression15.

FIGURE 1 IMAGE OF ARTHUR (2014) FROM WEATHER

UNDERGROUND

Approximately nine hours after the classification,

it was upgraded to Tropical Storm Arthur due to
surface observations from Grand Bahama supporting the new upgrade from Grand Bahama.16
While near Florida, the undeveloped Arthur was responsible for strong rip currents that
resulted in a dozen swimmers needing rescuing17.
Arthur would be steered back towards the north by a strong upper-level. Furthermore, the
general appearance of Arthur was improving regardless of the dry mid to upper level dry air
imposed on it. Therefore, on July 3rd 2014, Arthur was able to intensify and acquire Category 1
status18. The day after, on July 4th 2014, Arthur became a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph
winds before making landfall near Cape Lookout, North Carolina.19 After the landfall, on July
5th 2014, Arthur was scrambling towards the Northeast and became extra-tropical.20

15

Forecaster Brown. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1. National Hurricane Center. 1
Jul. 2014. Web. 19. Dec. 2014.
16
Forecaster Stewart. TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 3. National Hurricane Center. 1
Jul. 2014. Web. 19. Dec. 2014.
17
Tropical Storm Arthur Strengthens off Florida. NewsMax. 1 Jul. 2014. Web. 19. Dec. 2014.
18
Forecaster Brennan. HURRICANE ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 10. National Hurricane Center. 3 Jul.
2014. Web. 19 Dec. 2014.
19
Forecaster Beven/Blake. HURRICANE ARTHUR TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE. National Hurricane
Center. 3 Jul. 2014. Web. 19 Dec. 2014.
20
Forecaster Brown/Pasch. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 19. National
Hurricane Center. 5 Jul. 2014. Web. 19 Dec. 2014.

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FEATURED SYSTEMS (CONTINUED.)

Hurricane Bertha
Bertha began as a tropical wave south of the
Cape Verde Islands that was being watched by the
National Hurricane Center on July 26 2014. As it
remained south, it took advantage of slightly more
favorable conditions. It continued to move in a
general WNW motion. With deep convection
increasing and information obtained by an Air
Force Reserve Reconnaissance Aircraft, the wave
became Tropical Storm Bertha on July 31st 201421.

FIGURE 2 IMAGE OF BERTHA (2014) FROM NASA

Bertha did indeed continue her WNW motion

curving around a subtropical ridge, and moved into
the Northeastern Caribbean. The system ran into
the dry air and wind shear and appeared unkempt
before it entered the Southwestern Atlantic.
However, with wind shear slightly decreasing,
Bertha was allowed to rapidly intensify into a
Category 1 hurricane.

But her triumph was short lived when dry air kicked in and sheared the system apart. It tore
the LLC away from the main convection22, and Bertha ended up merging with a frontal
boundary and became an extra-tropical cyclone passing by Bermuda23.

21

Forecaster Stewart. TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 1. National Hurricane Center. 31
Jul. 2014. Web. 19 Dec. 2014.
22
Forecaster Pasch. TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19. National Hurricane Center. 5
Aug. 2014. Web. 19. Dec. 2014.
23
Forecaster Avila. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23. National Hurricane
Center. 6 Aug. 2014. Web. 19. 2014.

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FEATURED SYSTEMS (CONTINUED.)

Hurricane Cristobal

Cristobal started as a strong tropical wave off the African coast. It

keeps a Westward motion for several days with intensity
fluctuations. However, on August 20th 2014, it begins to move WestSouthwestward into a more favorable environment. This allowed for
the system to start organizing.

FIGURE 3 IMAGE OF CRISTOBAL

(2014) SOURCE: THE MALAYSIAN
INSIDER

Throughout its time as a unclassified system, the system had

sustained winds of a tropical storm. However, it did not have a welldefined closed low-level circulation (LLC). Finally, after long waits
and speculation, on August 23rd 2014, the system gains a closed
LLC and organization to support classification to a Tropical
Depression24. As its directly North of Hispaniola, the depression
brought heavy rains to the island.
On August 24th 2014, the depression was upgraded to Tropical
Storm Cristobal as it moved near the Southeast Bahamas.25

Then on August 25th 2014, Cristobal strengthened and became a

Category 1 hurricane26. The system began to curve to the Northeast and stayed in the open
sea.
Overall the storm killed 7 people in the United States (indirect effects), Haiti, Dominican
Republic, and Turks and Caicos.27 The storm then became a powerful extra-tropical cyclone
and stuck Iceland on August 31st 2014 with little impact28.

24

Forecaster Brennan. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED. National

Hurricane Center. 23 Aug. 2014. Web. 19 Dec. 2014.
25
Forecaster Brown. TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE. National Hurricane
Center. 24 Aug. 2014. Web. 19. Dec. 2014.
26
Forecaster Pasch. HURRICANE CRISTOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE. National Hurricane Center.
25. Aug. 2014. Web. 19. Dec. 2014.
27
Associated Press. Hurricane Cristobal Kills 7: Two Swimmers Die in Rip Currents Off U.S. East Coast. The
Weather Channel. 28. Aug. 2014. Web. 19 Dec. 2014.
28
Eliason, Matt. Ex-Hurricane Cristobal Causes Adverse Weather In Iceland As A "Tropical Cyclone". Iceland
Magazine. 2 Sep. 2014. Web. 19 Dec. 2014.

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FEATURED SYSTEMS (CONTINUED.)

Hurricane Edouard
Edouard began as a tropical wave off the coast of Africa on
September 7th 2014. After a few days, on September 11th 2014, the
wave finally gained the key tropical characteristics to become
classified as a Tropical Depression29. Later that day, the depression
became classified as Tropical Storm Edouard30.
Tropical Storm Edouard found its way into an area that is
conducive for further intensification and became the seasons fourth
hurricane on September 14th 201431.

FIGURE 4 IMAGE OF EDOUARD

(2014) SOURCE: NASA

As it moved WNW across the Eastern Atlantic, Edouard then

became a Category 3 hurricane the following day. As a result,
indirect effects were felt across the Eastern Seaboard and prompted
rip current warnings32. Edouard eventually curved to the Northeast
and became post-tropical on September 19th 2014.33

Hurricane Fay
Fay began as of low pressure that
became a Sub-tropical Depression, a
system with a cold core, on October
10th 201434. The system was just
north of the Leeward Islands as a
sub-tropical depression.
As it moved away from the
Leeward Islands, it became
Subtropical Storm

FIGURE 5 IMAGE OF FAY (2014) SOURCE: NOAA

29

Forecaster Beven. TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY NUMBER 1. National Hurricane Center. 11
Sep. 2014. Web. 19 Dec. 2014.
30
Forecaster Avila. TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER 3. National Hurricane Center. 11
Sep. 2014. Web. 19 Dec. 2014.
31
Forecaster Stewart. HURRICANE EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER 13. National Hurricane Center.14 Sep.
2014. Web. 19. Dec. 2014.
32
Winslow. Hailey. Beachgoers Warned Of High Risk Of Rip Currents. News4Jax. 17 Sep. 2014. Web. 19 Dec.
2014.
33
Forecaster Kimberlain/Huffman. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER 34.
National Hurricane Center. 19 Sep. 2014. Web. 19 Dec. 2014.
34
Forecaster Kimberlain. SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1. National Hurricane
Center. 10 Oct. 2014. Web. 19 Dec. 2014.

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FEATURED SYSTEMS (CONTINUED.)

HURRICANE FAY (CONTINUED.)

Fay35 on the same day. Then, once it began moving Northward and North-eastward, Fay
obtained a warm core and became a Hurricane. Also, it was moving in an West-Northwest
motion until the and slowly curving away towards away land. The storm had a peak intensity of
80 mph. However, the closer it got to Gonzolo the weaker it got since Gonzolo is the more
dominant system. Therefore, Fay dissipated on October 19 th 2014 and was considered extratropical36.

Hurricane Gonzolo
Gonzolo began as a tropical wave
east of the Lesser Antilles. The
National Hurricane Center began
monitoring the wave on October 10th
2014. The wave consisted of
concentrated convective activity and
conditions were favorable for tropical
cyclone genesis. The following day, it
became better organized and we gave
the system a 50%/80% probability and
deemed it MAOI#15ATL.37 Later
that day, the National Hurricane Center
classified the wave as Tropical Storm
FIGURE 6 ARCHIVED IMAGE FROM WEATHER.MSFC.NASA.GOV ON
OCTOBER 16 2014 OF HURRICANE GONZOLO.

Gonzolo38.
On October 13th 2014, Gonzolo
acquired Category 1 Hurricane
status39. Throughout the day, the storm
affected the Lesser Antilles while it

35

Forecaster Stewart. SUBTROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 2. National Hurricane Center. 10
Oct. 2014. Web. 19 Dec. 2014
36
Forecaster Cangialosi. REMNANTS OF FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 15. National Hurricane Center. 13 Oct.
2014. Web. 19 Dec. 2014.
37
H., Michaelangelo. MTTWF ISSUE #94. Macs Tropical Weather Blog. 12. Oct. 2014. Web. 19 Dec .
2014.
38
Forecaster Stewart. TROPICAL STORM GONZALO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1. National
Hurricane Center. 12 Oct. 2014. Web. 19 Dec. 2014.
39
Forecaster Stewart. HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6. National Hurricane Center. 13 Oct.
2014. Web. 19 Dec. 2014.

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FEATURED SYSTEMS (CONTINUED.)

Hurricane Gonzolo (Continued.)
grew stronger. The storm then moved Northwestward gaining strength. Then, on October 14th
2014, Gonzolo was upgraded to a Category 3 Major Hurricane40. However, on October 15th
2014, the system underwent an eyewall replacement cycle and then acquired Category 4
status41. Simultaneously, as it moves more North-westward, getting ready to turn Northward
and then North-Northeastward on October 16th 2014 when it reached peak intensity of
145mph. 42

As it continued to move towards Bermuda, the storm loses strength. By October 18th 2014, it
was a Category 2 hurricane passing right over Bermuda43. However, it did get organized later
that day. On October 19th 2014, the storm was moving towards Newfoundland at 50 mph and
into cooler waters where it finally became extra-tropical44. As an extra-tropical cyclone,
Gonzolo continued to be a problem when it moved to the United Kingdom. It eventually was
absorbed by another forming extra tropical cyclone45.

40

Forecaster Stewart. HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10. National Hurricane Center. 14
Oct. 2014. Web. 19 Dec. 2014.
41
Forecaster Cangialosi. HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 13. National Hurricane Center. 15.
Oct. 2014. Web. 19 Dec. 2014.
42
Forecaster Berg. HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 17. National Hurricane Center. 16. Oct.
2014. Web. 19 Dec. 2014.
43
Forecaster Stewart. HURRICANE GONZALO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A. National
Hurricane Center. 19. Oct. 2014. Web. 19 Dec. 2014.
44
Forecaster Stewart. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 National Hurricane
Center. 19. Oct. 2014. Web. 19. Dec. 2014.
45
Forecaster Stewart. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 30. National Hurricane
Center. 19 Oct. 2014. Web. 19 Dec. 2014.

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FORECAST COMPARISION
In this section, we will compare seasonal forecasts and some individual storm forecasts with
official and other sources.

Seasonal Forecasts
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) called for a near-normal or
below-average season with the following:

FIGURE 7 NOAA 2014 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST SOURCE: NOAA

Riskpulse
Stormpulse, Inc. (Riskpulse), completed their own analysis and called for a below-average
season with the following:

FIGURE 8 RISKPULSE 2014

ATLANTIC TROPICAL
OUTLOOK REPORT SNAPSHOT
SOURCE: RISKPULSE.COM

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FORECAST COMPARISION (CONTINUED.)

AccuWeather
AccuWeather also called for a below-average season. However, they included in their outlook
their forecast for two U.S. Landfalls46.
Their numbers for the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season were:

FIGURE 9 ACCUWEATHER 2014 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST SOURCE: ACCUWEATHER.COM

The Weather Channel

The Weather Channel forecasted a below-average season with the following:

46

Rodman, Kristen. Atlantic Hurricane Season 2014: Two US Landfalls Predicted; East Coast at Risk.
AccuWeather. 18 May. 2014. Web. 19 Dec. 2014.

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FORECAST COMPARISION (CONTINUED.)

Actual
The final numbers for the 2014 Hurricane season were: eight named systems, six
Hurricanes (74+mph), and two Major Hurricanes (111+mph)47.

Us (Macs Tropical Weather Blog)

Now, Macs Tropical Weather Blog initially forecasted below-average season with nine
named storms, three hurricanes, and two major hurricanes forming. However, on September
14th 2014, we updated our 2014 Hurricane Season Forecast to forecasting nine named storms,
five hurricanes, and two major hurricanes forming48.

Season Forecasts Comparison Summary

Upon our analysis, compared to AccuWeather, Riskpulse, and The Weather Channel, we
did slightly predict more accurately the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season compared to us. The
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted the most accurately, with
all actual numbers falling within their forecast.
Nevertheless, we came very close and our under-forecasted fields was the amount of
named systems and formed hurricanes. However, we never surpassed the actual numbers
compared to AccuWeather, Riskpulse, and The Weather Channel. Therefore, we find it in this
comparison to be more accurate than other meteorological agencies.

47

Oskin, Becky. Quiet 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Comes to a Close. 29

Sept. 2014. Web. 18 Dec. 2014.
48
Source: https://twitter.com/MacsTropicalWx/status/511181873159364608

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CONCLUSION
In Conclusion, despite the 2014 Hurricane Season being below-average we did see some
interesting cyclones. We had the first major hurricane since 201149, and two major hurricanes
overall50. Our forecast when compared to other meteorological agencies seems to be more
accurate. Hopefully, this report gave you a general sense about this hurricane season.

49

Sullivan, Brian. Bermuda Braces for First Major Hurricane Hit in 11 Years Bloomberg. 16 Oct.2014. Web.19.
Dec. 2014.
50
2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Review. National Hurricane Center. 26 Nov. 2014. Web.19. Dec. 2014.

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