Pennsylvanias Representation

McQuillin Murphy
November 15, 2014

The Pennsylvania State University

Geography 020U
Dr. Roger Downs

Murphy 1
The manipulation of Congressional districts to suit party or race, a process known as
gerrymandering, is time-honored and widespread in American politics. It arguably exists in
every state except Delaware, Alaska, Montana, and the Dakotas,1 intertwining Americas
geography with its politics. Much debate exists over this issue, as does much conjecture as to its
effects on the American political scene. Curious as to exactly what gerrymandering looks like in
Pennsylvania, I have taken a look at the Commonwealths gerrymandered districts and have
attempted to determine what some of its direct effects on Pennsylvanias delegation to the United
States House of Representatives may be.
First, it is necessary to take a look at the current map of PA Congressional districts
(Figure 1 below). This map was drawn by the Pennsylvania General Assembly after the
Republican Party took control of the Pennsylvania State House in the 2010 election cycle
(Pennsylvania House of Representatives Elections). Because of this, the Republicans were able
to drawn the borders of Pennsylvania Congressional districts to create an atmosphere in which
the Republican Party is favored. One key way they did this was to minimize the effect of cities,
which are primarily Democratic.
For example, the entirety of Pittsburgh is placed in one district, effectively ceding control
of the district to the Democrats, but making sure the Democratic voters in Pittsburgh cannot
affect elections in other districts. The most obvious gerrymandering occurs in the east. In
particular, the 1st, 2nd, 6th, 7th, 13th, 15th, and 16th districts are swirled around each other in a
cyclone of partisanship. A great example is the 16th, where Democratic Reading is thinly
connected to Republican Lancaster County, effectively neutralizing its potential ability to elect
Democratic representation. To the north, the 15th district connects the Democratic Lehigh Valley

These states elect a single Representative at-large, so they do not draw districts.

Murphy 2
with a long swath of Republican rural Pennsylvania, down to western Lebanon County and
Dauphin County (US Congressional Districts PA).
Recognizing that the list of ways Pennsylvanias Representative districts are edited for
political advantage is essentially endless, I set out to determine just what the effects were. To do
this, I created two models: one showing the current delegation to the U.S. House of
Representatives and another showing what that delegation would look like if it were
proportionate to Pennsylvanias demographics (see figure 2 below).
Figure 2 shows that Pennsylvania currently sends 18 representatives to the House, 5 of
whom are Democrats and 13 of whom are Republicans. One male Democrat, Rep. Chaka Fattah
(PA 2), is Black. The other 17 are White. Only one Democrat is a female, Rep. Allyson Schwartz
(PA 13), while the rest are male (Pennsylvania). Clearly, this representative body is not
actually representative of the population of Pennsylvania. To determine what a truly
representative delegation would look like, I first had to find the demographic information for the
population of Pennsylvania in three major categories: race/ethnicity, gender, and party
identification.
Pennsylvanias population, according to the 2010 U.S. Census, is 78.4% White, 11.5%
Black, 6.3% Hispanic/Latino, and 3.1% Asian, and 0.7% Other or Mixed Race (Pennsylvania
QuickFacts). I divided 100% by 18, which equals 5.5%. This became the quota a race needed to
obtain one seat.2 In other words, for every 5.5% of the share of the population that identified as a
race, that race was given one seat. After the seat was granted, 5.5% was subtracted from that
races. If no single race had 5.5% or more remaining, the race with the largest remaining

The term race is used to refer to the categories the United States Census uses to denote a citizens race or
ethnicity, as identified by the citizen who filled out the form.

Murphy 3
percentage was granted the seat. When these calculations were completed, 14 seats were granted
to Whites, 2 to Blacks, 1 to a Hispanic, and 1 to an Asian.
Calculating the division by gender would at first appear simpler, since Pennsylvanias
population is approximately 51% female and 49% male (Pennsylvania QuickFacts). That
means that 9 seats will go to women and 9 seats will go to men. However, it is not reasonable to
expect that each party would elect men and women on a 1:1 ratio; the Democrats are more
popular among women and the Republicans are more popular among men. So, while 9 seats will
go to women and 9 to men, I first needed to calculate the number of seats granted to each party,
find the male to female vote ratio for each party, and divide the seats that way.
Voter registration statistics show that 49.5% of registered voters in Pennsylvania are
Democrats, 36% are Republicans, 8.1% are Independents, 0.57% are Libertarians, and 5%
belong to other parties (Current Voter Registration Statistics). Recognizing that only
Democrats, Republicans, and Independents break the 5.5% threshold, I concluded that the other
parties could not by themselves gain a seat. Using the same distribution method as with race,
Democrats were granted 9 seats, Republicans 7, and independent candidates garnered 2.
Now genders and races must be distributed into each party. To do this, I took
Pennsylvanias election data from the 2012 Presidential election. Parties were given a certain
races seat based on which partys candidate the genders and races voted for. For example,
President Obama (D) won 93% of the Black vote (America's Choice). If 100% of the Black
vote is divided by the number of seats it is allocated (2), then the quota is 50%. 93% - 50% =
43%, which is still the largest remainder, so the Democrats earned both Black representatives.
Using this same method, the Democrats also picked up the Hispanic seat and the Asian seat
(Americas Choice, Behind the Numbers). The White vote was distributed to the remainder

Murphy 4
of the seats, which was approximately consistent with the ratio the White vote in 2012: the
Democrats earned 42%, Republicans 57%, seats were split 5:7 (Americas Choice).
Finally, gender was distributed in the same way. First, the two independent seats were
split one male and one female. Second, the remaining seats were split by gender: each was to
receive 7 seats. The ratio of the Democratic to Republican vote amongst men was 48:51, so the
Democrats picked up 3 male seats and the Republicans picked up 4. The ratio of the female vote
was split 56:43, so the Democrats earned 4 seats and the Republicans 3 (Americas Choice).
With all of these numbers in mind, I developed a model of what a demographically
proportional delegation to the U.S. House from Pennsylvania would look like, shown in Figure 2.
Of course, it is not perfect. Minorities Republicans have been elected to the U.S. House and voter
registration numbers do not perfectly predict the way people vote, or even if they will vote at all.
Gerrymandering may explain why the party seats lean so far Republican when the state is home
to more Democrats, but it does not affect the way women are elected to office. For the most part,
it does not affect the way minorities are elected to office, either. The lack of demographically
proportional representation for gender and race probably has its root in other problems. This
model does, however, show what the Pennsylvania delegation could plausibly look like if
gerrymandering did not influence party or race elections.
One way to achieve this delegation would be to elect Pennsylvanias Representatives atlarge. The U.S. Constitution does not prevent this and Pennsylvania even elected Representatives
at-large for a number of years (Article 1 Legislative Branch). However, Congress has since
passed a law requiring single-member districts (2 U.S. Code 2c). To draw these districts to
fairly represent the demographics of Pennsylvania is politically and possibly geographically
impossible. However, if Congress repealed this law and Pennsylvania could elect at-large

Murphy 5
candidates, perhaps by a proportional representation electoral system, gerrymandering could be
eliminated and these political inscriptions on Pennsylvania would no longer affect its politics; the
only determining factors would be the people of the Commonwealth and their ideas.
Graphics
Figure 1

Source: (US Congressional Districts PA)

Murphy 6
Figure 2
Key

PA Delegation to the U.S. House of Representatives

Current

PA Delegation to the U.S. House of Representatives

Demographically Proportional

Murphy 7
Works Cited
"America's Choice 2012 Election Center, Races & Results, President: Pennsylvania." CNN.
Cable News Network, n.d. Web. 15 Nov. 2014.
<http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/PA/president>.
"Article I - Legislative Branch." Constitutioncenter.org. National Constitution Center, n.d. Web.
13 Nov. 2014. <http://constitutioncenter.org/constitution/the-articles/article-i-thelegislative-branch>.
"Behind the Numbers: Post-Election Survey of Asian American and Pacific Islander Voters in
2012" National Asian American Survey. Asian American Justice Center, Asian and
Pacific Islander American Vote, and National Asian American Survey, April 2013. Web.
15 Nov. 2014. <http://www.naasurvey.com/resources/Presentations/2012-aapipesnational.pdf>. PDF file.
"Current Voter Registration Statistics." Voter Registration Statistics. Pennsylvania Department
of State, 20 Feb. 2014. Web. 15 Nov. 2014.
<http://www.recovery.pa.gov/portal/server.pt/community/voter_registration_statistics/12
725>. Microsoft Excel File.
"Pennsylvania." GovTrack.us. Civic Impulse, LLC, n.d. Web. 15 Nov. 2014.
<https://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/PA>.
"Pennsylvania House of Representatives Elections, 2010." Ballotpedia. Lucy Burns Institute, n.d.
Web. 15 Nov. 2014.
<http://ballotpedia.org/Pennsylvania_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2010>.
"Pennsylvania QuickFacts." Census.gov. US Census Bureau, 8 July 2014. Web. 15 Nov. 2014.
<http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/42000.html>.

Murphy 8
"US Congressional Districts PA." PAfairtax.org. Coalition for Responsible PA Government, n.d.
Web. 15 Nov. 2014. <http://www.pafairtax.org/images/PA-US-Congressional-DistrictMap-2013.jpg>.
"2 U.S. Code 2c - Number of Congressional Districts; Number of Representatives from Each
District." Legal Information Institute. Cornell University Law School, n.d. Web. 15 Nov.
2014. <http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/2/2c>.