HI QUY TUYN TNH

Nguyn Ngc L, T V Song Phng

Ngy 31 thng 8 nm 2014

Gii thiu

Phn tch tng quan nhm nh gi mi tng quan gia hai bin lin tc chng hn nh
tui v cn nng, v h s o lng mc tng quan gi l h s tng quan (coefficient of
correlation). Tuy nhin trong thc t, chng ta cn bit thm mc nh hng ca bin tin
lng (predictor variable) trn bin ph thuc (dependent variable). Bin tin lng v bin ph
thuc s trnh by trong phn sau. Ngoi ra ta cng cn bit thm mt yu t na l nu c
mi tng quan gia hai bin X v Y , th ta cn mt m hnh tin lng, tc l nu bit gi
tr ca X th tin lng c gi tr Y . Do m hnh p ng nhng yu cu trn c gi l
m hnh hi quy tuyn tnh.
Mc tiu ca m hnh hi quy tuyn tnh:
Tm mt m hnh hay phng trnh m t mt mi lin quan gia X v Y .
iu chnh cc yu t nhiu.
Tin lng.
Trc khi i su vo l thuyt nhng phn sau, ta xt v d v ng dng m hnh hi quy
tuyn tnh.
V d 1.1 (WORLD POPULATION) Da trn c s d liu quc t ca U.S Census Bureau,
dn s th gii tng nh bng 1. Cu hi c t ra l t nhng d liu ny lm sao chng ta
c th tin on dn s th gii vo nm 2015 v 2020?
Hnh 1 cho chng ta thy dn s c mi tng quan vi nm, tc l population G(year). Dn
s tng mi nm v tng gn nh tuyn tnh. ng thng nt t trong hnh cho chng ta tin
on dn s th gii nm 2015 l 7.15 t, v nm 2020 l 7.52 t ngi.

Year
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970

Population
mln.people
2558
2782
3043
3350
3712

Year
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995

Population
mln.people
4089
4451
4855
5287
5700

Year
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020

Population
mln.people
6090
6474
6864
?
?

Bng 1: World Population, 1950-2020.

Hnh 1: World population in 1950-2010 and its regression forecast for 2015 and 2020.
V d 1.2 (HOUSE PRICES) Gi v din tch nhng ngi nh c bn c biu din nh
hnh 2.
u tin chng ta thy r rng c mi lin h gia 2 bin, nh cng ln th cng t. Tuy nhin,
xu hng ny dng nh khng tuyn tnh. Th hai l c s bin thin ln quanh xu hng ny,
tc l din tch khng phi l yu t duy nht xc nh gi nh. Nhng ngi nh cng din
tch c th c gi khc nhau.
Cu hi t ra l lm sao chng ta c th c lng gi ca ngi nh c din tch l 3200 foot.
Ta c th c lng c xu hng chung da trn ng t nt trn hnh, nhng do bin
thin ln nn c lng s khng chnh xc nh v d 1.1. ci tin c lng ny, chng ta
c th xem xt thm vi yu t nh hng nh: s phng, din tch vn, thu nhp trung bnh
ca cc nh lng ging v.v. Nu nhng bin thm vo thch hp vi gi nh, th m hnh s tin
on chnh xc hn.

Hnh 2: House sale prices and their footage.