CornMarketOutlookinJuly2014

DanielOBrienExtensionAgriculturalEconomist,KStateResearchandExtension
July15,2014
Summary
SincetheUSDAreleaseditsWorldAgriculturalSupplyandDemandEstimates(WASDE)reportonFriday,July
11,2014,U.S.cornmarketpriceshaverespondednegativelymovingsharplyloweronthedayofthereport,
andthenrecoveringsomeearlierlossesthefollowingtradingday(i.e.,Monday,July14).
USDAU.S.CornForecastforOldCropMY2013/14:AdjustmentswerealsomadetoseveralcurrentMY
2013/14usagecategories,includingprojectedethanolcornuse(5.175millionbushelsormbdown25mb),
feedandresidualuse(5.175billionbushelsorbbdown125mb),endingstocks(1.246bbup100mb),
endingstockstouse(9.2%upfrom8.4%),andaverageprice($4.35$4.55down$0.10perbushel).
USDAU.S.CornForecastforNewCropMY2014/15:TheUSDAusedforecastsofU.S.2014planted(91.641
millionacresorma)andharvested(83.839ma)fromtheJune30thUSDAAcreagereportalongwithinternal
projectionsofrecordhigh2014U.S.cornyieldsandproductionfiguresthatarestilluncertainandsubjectto
changeinupcomingUSDAreports.TheUSDAprojected2014U.S.cornproductionof13.860bbdown65mb
fromayearearlier.FeedusageinnewcropMY2014/15wasprojectedtobe5.200bbdown75mbfrom
theJuneWASDE.Newcropendingstocksandendingstockstousewerealsoraisedto1.801bb(up75mb)
and13.5%(upfrom12.9%),respectively.TheUSDAforecastthatnewcropMY2014/15averagepriceswill
be$3.65$4.35withamidpointof$4.00down$0.20/bufromJune.AsusefulattheseJulyreportnumbers
are,itisimportanttorememberthatthefirstactualsurveybasedprojectionof2014U.S.cornproductionwill
beavailableintheAugust12thUSDACropProductionandWASDEreports.
KSUU.S.CornForecastforNewCropMY2014/15:KSUprojectionsfornewcropMY2014/15areas
follows:a)LikelyProductionScenario:50%prob.of91.641maplanted,83.839maharvested,trendyields
of159.4bu/ac,13.364bb2014U.S.cornproduction,14.640bbU.S.cornsupplies,1.700bbexports,13.310bb
totaluse,1.330bbendingstocks,10.0%S/U,&$4.35/bu;b)HighProductionScenario:35%prob.of92.891
maplanted,84.983maharvested,yieldsof164.4bu/ac,13.971bb2014U.S.cornproduction,15.237bbU.S.
cornsupplies,1.800bbexports,13.585bbtotaluse,1.652bbendingstocks,12.2%S/U,&$4.10/bu,andc)
LowProductionScenario:15%prob.of90.391maplanted,82.695maharvested,loweryieldsof149.4
bu/ac,12.355bb2014U.S.cornproduction,13.651bbU.S.cornsupplies,1.400bbexports,12.525bbtotal
use,1.126bbendingstocks,9.0%S/U,&$4.90/bu.
WorldCornTotalSuppliesof1,154mmtinnewcropMY2014/15areprojectedtobeupfrom1,123mmtin
currentMY2013/14,andupfrom1,003mmtinMY2012/13.ProjectedWorldcornendingstocksof118.1
mmt(19.5%S/U)innewcropMY2014/15areupfrom173.4mmt(18.3%S/U)incurrentMY2013/14,and
upfrom138.2mmt(16.0%S/U)inMY2012/13.CombinednewcropMY2014/15cornproductionformajor
exportcompetitorsBrazil(74.0mmtdown4.0)andArgentina(26.0mmtup2.0)isprojectedtobedown
2.0mmt.However,withalarge2014U.S.corncropharvestanticipatedtobeavailableinWorldgrainexport
marketsinlatewinterspring2015,andnomajorthreatshavingyetemergedtoU.S.orforeigncorn
productionsofarin2014,itisanticipatedthatWorldcornproductionandsupplieswillbelargerandprices
sharplylowerinMY2014/15thanayearago.
AlthoughmoderateconcernsaboutcropdevelopmenthaveemergedinpartsoftheupperMidwesternstates
duetoexcessivemoister,atthistimetheseworriesarenotgreatenoughtoprovidemuchsupportforcorn
prices.Absentanunforeseenmajordownturnin2014U.S.cornproductionandpriceprospects,itseems
likelythatU.S.cornmarketsaremovingtowardalowpriceperiodsimilartothefallof2008,amarketingyear
inwhichU.S.cornpriceswereatorbelow$4.00perbushelforatleastamoderateperiodoftime..
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I.U.S.CornMarketSituationandOutlook
IA.July2014USDAReports&ProjectionsforNewCropMY2014/15
OnJuly11,2014theUSDAWorldAgriculturalOutlookBoard(WAOB)releaseditsJuly2014World
AgriculturalSupplyandDemandEstimates(WASDE)reportcontainingU.S.andWorldcornsupplydemand
andpriceprojectionsforboththeoldcrop2013/14marketingyearaswellasfornewcropMY2014/15.
Theoldcrop2013/14marketingyearwillendonAugust31,2014,whilethenewcrop2014/15U.S.wheat
marketingyearwilllastfromSeptember1,2014throughAugust31,2015.TheJuly11thWASDEreportmade
useoftheinformationreleasedintheJune30thNationalAgriculturalStatisticalService(NASS)Acreageand
QuarterlyStocksreports.TheJuly11thWASDEreports2014U.S.cornproductionforecastwasbasedonthe
projectedplantedandharvestedacreagetotalsintheJune30thUSDANASSAcreagereport,whileinformation
intheJune30thUSDANASSQuarterlyStocksreportwasusedincalculatingadjustmentstooldcropMY
2013/14U.S.cornusageandendingstocksintheJuly11thUSDAWASDEreport.
TheupcomingAugust12thUSDANASSCropProductionreportwillprovidethefirstinfieldsurveybased
forecastofthe2014U.S.corncrop.This2014productionestimatewillprovidethebasisfortheAugust11th
WASDEreportprojectionofU.S.cornsupplydemandandprices.

IB.CornFuturesTrendsSincetheJuly11thUSDAReports
TheoldcropSEPTEMBER2014cornfuturesmarketcontractrespondedinnegativemannertothe
informationintheJuly11thUSDAreports.OnthedayofthereportFriday,July11thChicagoBoardofTrade
(CBOT)SEPT2014cornfuturespricesopenedat$3.86perbushel,andtradedashighas$3.881/2andaslow
as$3.75duringthesession,beforesettlingat$3.78down$0.08fortheday(Figure1).TheUSDAreport
findingswerepubliclyreleasedatapproximatelymidsession,i.e.,12:00nooneasterntime(11:00a.m.central)
thatday.OnMonday,July14thSEPT2014cornfuturespricesfirstopenedtradelowerat$3.77,tradingina
rangefromalowof$3.74toahighof$3.82,beforeclosingat$3.81up$0.03fortheday.Thelow
priceof$3.75onJuly11thwasarecordhistoriclowfortheSEPTEMBER2014cornfuturescontract.

Figure1.SEPT2014andDEC2014CMECornFuturesPriceCharts(electronictrade)

SEPT2014CMEeCornFutures
Nov.13,2013July14,2014
Close=$3.81on7/14/2014

DEC2014CMEeCornFutures
Oct.17,2013June17,2014
Close=$3.88on7/14/2014

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NewcropDEC2014cornfuturescontractpricesalsorespondedinanegativemannertothe
informationintheJuly11thUSDAreports.Onthedayofthereport,CBOTDEC2014cornfuturesprices
openedat$3.92perbushel,andtradedashighas$3.94andaslowas$3.82duringthesession,before
settlingat$3.84alsodown$0.08fortheday(Figure1).OnMonday,July14thDEC2014cornfutures
pricesfirstopenedtradelowerat$3.83,tradinginarangefromalowof$3.80toahighof$3.89,before
closingat$3.88up$0.03fortheday.Thelowpriceof$3.80wasalsoarecordhistoriclowforthe
DECEMBER2014cornfuturescontract.

IC.U.S.CornSupplyDemand
U.S.CornAcreage,Yield&Production
FollowingtheresultsofJune30thUSDANASSAcreagereport,theUSDAprojectedthat2014U.S.corn
totalplantedacreagewouldbe91.641millionacres(ma),down50,000acresfromtheMarch31stUSDANASS
ProspectivePlantingsReport,anddownfrom95.365main2013,97.155main2012,and91.936main2011
(Table1andFigure2).Inaddition,theUSDAprojected2014U.S.cornharvestedacreagetobe83.839ma,
downfromitsJune11WASDEreportprojectionof84.3ma,anddownfrom87.668main2013,and87.365
main2012,butupfrom81.446main2011.The2014proportionofharvestedtoplantedacreageforallU.S.
cornisprojectedtobe91.49%,downfrom91.9%into2013,butupfrom89.9%in2012and91.4%in2011.
Theprojected2014U.S.averagecornyieldof165.3bushelsperacre(bu/ac)isunchangedfromtheMay
JuneWASDEreports,andwouldbearecordhigh,upfrom158.8bu/acin2013,thedroughtaffected2012low
yieldof123.4bu/ac.,andthehistorichighof164.7bu/acin2009(Table1andFigure3).Basedonthese2014
acreageandyieldforecasts,theUSDAprojected2014U.S.cornproductiontobe13.860billionbushels(bb)
whichwouldbethesecondhighestamountonrecord,followingtherecordhighof13.925bbin2013,10.780
bbin2012,12.360bbin2011,12.447in2010,and13.092bbin2009(Table1).

U.S.CornTotalSupplies
TheUSDAestimatesthattotalsuppliesofU.S.cornfornewcropMY2014/15are15.136bbresulting
frombeginningstocksof1.246bb,projected2014productionof13.860bb,andprojectedimportsof30
millionbushel(mb)(Table1).Totalsuppliesof15.136bbinnewcropMY2014/15wouldbearecordhigh,
comparableto14.362bbinMY2007/08,13.729bbinMY2008/09,14.774bbinMY2009/10(3rdlargest),
14.182bbinMY2010/11(4thlargest),13.517bbinMY2011/12,11.932bbinMY2012/13,and14.781bbin
currentyearMY2013/14(2ndhighest).
Beginningstocksof1.246bbinnewcropMY2014/15areup100mbfromtheJuneWASDEreport,and
upsharplyfromboth821mbincurrentyearMY2013/14,andfrom989mbinMY2012/13.Thisamountof
beginningstocksisupconsiderablyfromthelowof426mboccurringinMY1996/97.Importsof30mbin
newcropMY2014/15arethethirdhighestonrecord,andareprojectedtobedownfrom35mbincurrent
yearMY2013/14(the2ndhighest),andalsodownsharplyfromtherecordhighof162mbinMY2012/13.
TheseamountsofU.S.cornimportsarecomparableto29mbinMY2011/12,and28mbinMY2010/11.

U.S.CornUsebyCategory&TotalUse
U.S.EthanolProductionandCornUsage:ProjectedU.S.cornuseforethanolproductionof5.050bbin
newcropMY2014/15isdownfromto5.075bbincurrentyearMY2013/14(up25mbfromtheJune
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WASDEreport),whilebeingupfrom4.648bbinMY2012/13,and5.000bbinMY2011/12(Figure4).Figure5
showsweeklyU.S.oxygenatedplantproductionoffuelethanolasreportedbytheU.S.EnergyInformation
Administration(www.eia.gov)withacalculatedestimateofcornusedevelopedbyKansasStateUniversity.
Assuming2.75gallonsofethanolproducedperbushelofcorn,thesecalculationsindicatethattheequivalent
projectedannualrateofU.S.cornusedforethanolproductionforcurrentMY2013/14hasrangedfrom
4.6385.418bbonaweeklybasissinceearlySeptember2013thebeginningofthecurrent2013/14
marketingyear.
OvertheperiodoffromSeptember1,2013throughJuly4,2014,cornusageforethanolproductionhas
beenonpacetoreach5.050bbincurrentMY2013/14,withtheperiodofJuly6ththroughAugust31st
throughtheendofthecurrentmarketingyearyettooccur.Thisestimateof5.050bbislessthantheUSDAs
July2014WASDEreportestimateof5.075bbofcorntobeusedforethanolproductionduringcurrentMY
2013/14(whichhadbeenraised25mbintheJulyWASDEreport).
U.S.CornUseasDistillersGrains:AnestimateoftheU.S.cornequivalentamountsofdistillersgrains
(DDGS)usefordirectlivestockfeedingandexportsisprovidedinFigure6whichshowsestimateda)DDGS
cornequivalentU.S.domesticlivestockfeeding,andb)DDGSexportsaswellasothercategoriesofU.S.corn
usagesinceMY1989/90.
Thisanalysisassumes16.00poundsofdistillersdriedgrainsandsolubles(DDGS)per56poundbushelof
cornusedinethanolproductionfollowingfromrecentethanolindustrysurveys.Bytheseestimatessince
MY2010/11,approximately1.0511.147bbofU.S.cornequivalentbushelweightsofDDGSareprojected
eithertohavealreadybeenoraretobefedtoU.S.livestockduringeachmarketingyeari.e.,1.108bbin
DDGScornweightequivalentsinMY2010/11,1.130bbinMY2011/12,1.051bbinMY2012/13,1.147bb
projectedforcurrentMY2013/14,and1.142bbinnewcropMY2014/15.Overthesamefivemostrecent
marketingyears,DDGSexportsincornequivalentweightsareestimatedtorangefrom277to306mb,with
approximately301bbofDDGScornequivalentsprojectedforthenewcropMY2014/15U.S.cornmarketing
year.
U.S.CornExports:ProjectedU.S.cornexportsof1.700innewcropMY2014/15aredownfromthe
estimateof1.900bbincurrentyearMY2013/14,butupsharplyfrom731mbinMY2012/13the40year
lowsinceMY1975/76(Figure4).AccordingtheUSDAForeignAgriculturalService(FAS)weeklyexportdata,
ssofJuly3rd,with44of52weeks(84.6%)ofcurrentMY2013/14complete,1.542bbofU.S.cornhadbeen
shippedforexportequalto81.2%oftheUSDAsupdatedprojectionforcurrentMY2013/14of1.900bb.
Anadditional330mbofU.S.cornhadbeensoldforfutureexportsalesinthecurrent2013/14marketing
yearpriortoAugust31,2014(theendofcurrentMY2013/14).
Addingtogether1.542bbinpastshipmentsplus330mbinforwardsalesamountsto1.872bb,or98.6%of
theUSDAs1.900bbU.S.cornexporttargetforcurrentMY2013/14intheJuly11thUSDAWASDEreport
with84.6%(44/52weeks)ofthemarketingyearcompleted.Thestrongpaceofcombinedshipmentsand
salesmotivatedtheUSDAtoincreaseitsU.S.cornexportprojectionby150mbfrom1.750bbto1.900bbback
intheMay9thWASDEreport.
Inaddition,168mbofU.S.cornexportsaleshavebeenreportedforthenewcrop2014/15marketing
yearbeginningSeptember1,2014.Thisamountwouldequal9.9%oftheUSDAsprojectionof1.700bbfor
newcropMY2014/15beforethemarketingyearhasbegan.

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NonEthanolFSI:Forecastnonethanolfood,seedandindustrial(FSI)useof1.385bbinnewcropMY
2014/15isequalto1.385bbincurrentyearMY2013/14,andcomparesto1.405bbinlastyearsMY
2012/13,and1.428bbinMY2011/12(Figure4).
FeedandResidualUse:ForecastU.S.feedandresidualuseof5.200bbinnewcropMY2014/15isdown
50mbfromtheJuneWASDEreport,whilebeingupfrom5.175bbforcurrentMY2013/14andupfrom
4.326bbinMY2012/13.TheestimateforcurrentMY2013/14waslowered125mbfromtheJuneWASDE
number.Theselevelsofcornuseforlivestockfeedingaresomewhatcorrelatedwiththeamountsofenergy
feedspergrainconsuminganimalunitsreportedbytheUSDAoverthesametimeperiod(Figure4).
LastmonthsJuneFeedOutlookReport(http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/fdsfeedoutlook/fds
14e.aspx)theUSDAEconomicResearchService(ERS)indicatesthatovertheMY2012/13throughnewcrop
MY2014/15timeperiod,thetotalamountofEnergyFeedsintheU.S.includingcorn,sorghum,barley,oats
andwheatwasestimatedtobe125.7millionmetrictons(mmt)inMY2012/13(87.5%corn),141.4mmtin
currentMY2013/14(95.2%corn),and142.5mmtinnewcropMY2014/15(93.6%corn).Overthissame
threeyearperiod,totalU.S.GrainConsumingAnimalUnitswereestimatedtobe91.8millioninMY2012/13,
89.7millionincurrentMY2013/14,and90.1millioninnewcropMY2014/15.
Asaresult,U.S.EnergyFeedsperGrainConsumingAnimalUnitwas1.369metrictonsperanimalunit
(mt/au)inMY2012/13,andisestimatedtobe1.576mt/auincurrentMY2013/14,and1.582mt/auinnew
cropMY2014/15.Astheavailabilityoffeedgrainandotherenergyfeedshasincreasedorisexpectedto
increasefromthedroughtstrickenshortcropyearofMY2012/13tocurrentMY2013/14,andintonew
cropMY2014/15,theamountofenergyfeedsfedperanimalunitandtotalfeeduseofU.S.cornhasandis
expectedtoalsoincrease.
TotalUseofU.S.CornfornewcropMY2014/15isprojectedtobe13.335bbdown50mbfromJune.
Thisamountof13.335bbintotalusefornewcropMY2014/15isdownfromtherecordhighof13.535bbin
currentMY2013/14(alsodown100mbfromtheJuneWASDE),butupfrom11.111bbindroughtaffected
MY2012/13(Table1andFigures4&6).UnitedStatestotalcornusehasvariedbasedonavailableU.S.corn
suppliesinrecentyears,trendingfrom12.737bbinMY2007/08,12.056bbinMY2008/09,13.066bbinMY
2009/10(3rdhighest),13.055bbinMY2010/11(4thhighest),12.528bbinMY2011/12,11.111bbinMY
2012/13,therecordhighof13.535bbincurrentMY2013/14,andtheprojectedamountof13.335bbin
newcropMY2014/15(2ndhighest).

U.S.CornEndingStocks,%EndingStockstoUse,&Prices
U.S.cornendingstocksfornewcropMY2014/15areprojectedtobe1.801bbup75mbfromtheJune
WASDE.ThisforecastamountofU.S.cornendingstocksof1.801bbinnewcropMY2014/15upfrom1.246
bbincurrentyearMY2013/14whichwasraised100mbfromtheJuneWASDEreport(Table1&Figure
4).CurrentMY2013/14U.S.cornendingstocksof1.246bbarelessthan1.673bbofU.S.cornendingstocks
forMY2008/09,and1.708bbinMY2009/10butatleastmarginallylargerthantherecentdowntrending
endingstocksfiguresof1.128bbinMY2010/11,989mbinMY2011/12,and821mbindroughtstrickenMY
2012/13.
Projectedpercent(%)endingstockstouseof13.5%innewcropMY2014/15areupfrom12.9%inthe
JuneWASDEreport(Table1&Figures78).UnitedStatescorn%endingstockstousedeclinedfrom13.9%
inMY2008/09,to13.1%inMY2009/10,8.6%inMY2010/11,7.9%inMY2011/12,andto7.4%indrought
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strickenMY2012/13,beforeincreasingforthefirsttimeinsix(6)yearsto9.2%incurrentMY2013/14(up
from8.4%intheJuneWASDE),andnowtoaprojectedlevelof13.5%innewcropMY2014/15.
U.S.averagecornpricesfornewcropMY2014/15areprojectedtobeintherangeof$3.65$4.35bu/ac
(midpoint=$4.00)(Table1&Figures78)downfrom$3.85$4.55(midpoint=$4.20)intheJuneWASDE
report.SincethebeginningoftherapidexpansioninU.S.ethanolproductionin2006,U.S.cornpriceshave
movedhigher,thenlower,andhigheragain,changingfrom$3.04/buinMY2006/07,to$4.20inMY2007/08,
$4.06inMY2008/09,$3.55inMY2009/10,$5.18inMY2010/11,$6.22inMY2011/12,andthenuptothe
recordhighof$6.89indroughtstrickenMY2012/13.ButiftheJuly11thWASDEreportprojectionholds
true,priceswillnowhavedeclinedfortwoconsecutiveyearssincethe$6.89recordhighinMY2012/13,down
to$4.35$4.55(midpoint=$4.45)incurrentMY2013/14,andagaindownto$3.65$4.35(midpoint=$4.00)
innewcropMY2014/15.TheUSDAspriceprojectionforcurrentMY2013/14isdownfrom$4.45$4.65
(midpoint=$4.55)intheJune2014WASDEreport.

ID.KSUU.S.CornSupplyDemandScenariosforNewCropMY2014/15
ThereseemstobeatendencyforearlyseasonforecastsbyboththeUSDAandUniversitygrainmarket
economiststoprojectfullproductionscenarios.Lookingback,acombinationofdrought,excessivemoisture,
andresultingpoorcropdevelopmentconditionsleadtolowerthanoriginallyexpectedU.S.cornproductionin
2010,2011,and2012.Andalthoughthe2013U.S.corncrophasendedupbeingrecordlarge,stillitis
markedlylowerthanoriginalearly2013productionforecastof14.5+bb.
Projectionsfor2014U.S.cornproductionbytheUSDAandKansasStateUniversitymayverywellfollow
thissamepatternofbeingoverlyoptimisticimplicitlydiscountingthepossibilityof2014U.S.corncrop
productionproblemsoccurringlaterinthesummermonths.Forexample,KSUforecastsprovidedhereare
decidedlyconservativeintermsofprojectedU.S.cornprices,witha50%probabilityofU.S.cornprices
averagingnear$4.35perbushelfornewcropMY2014/15,andanadditional35%probabilityofprices
averagingnear$4.10perbushel.Inrealitythesetwoscenariosarecloseenoughtogetherthatitcouldbesaid
thattheseKSUprojectionsindicatethereisan85%chanceofU.S.cornpricesaveraging$4.10$4.35per
bushel.
GiventhemarketinformationavailableinJuly2014,theseconservativepriceprojectionsstillseem
reasonable.However,2014productionuncertaintyandthepossibilityofoverlypessimisticprojectionsofU.S.
cornusageinthenewcrop2014/15marketingyearmaystillverywellleadtohigherpricesthanthese
projectionseventhoughthecurrentprevailingmarketsentimentisforextremelylowU.S.cornpricesat
harvestthisfall.

KSUProbabilityBasedProjectionsU.S.CornSupplyDemand&PricesforMY2014/15
KansasStateUniversityforecastsofU.S.cornsupplydemandbalancesfornewcropinthe2014/15
marketingyearareprovidedbelow.TheKSUprojectionsareanefforttoreflecttheuncertaintythatexistsin
regardstotheamountof2014U.S.cornproduction.Thesizeofthe2014U.S.corncropwillbedeterminedby
2014U.S.cornplantedandharvestedacresontheonehand,andon2014U.S.cornyieldsontheother.These
KSU2014U.S.cornplantedandharvestedacreageprojectionsfollowfromtheJune30thUSDANASSAcreage
reportandtheJuly11thUSDAWASDEreport.
KSUprojectionsof2014U.S.cornplantedandharvestedacreagearefoundinTable1andFigure2.
Projectionsof2014probabilityweightedU.S.cornyieldsarefoundinTable1andFigure3.Probability
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weightedKSUforecastsofU.S.cornaveragepricesfornewcropMY2014/15arebasedonprojectionsof
U.S.corn%endingstockstouseshowninTable1andFigure7.ThreeprobabilityweightedKSUsupply
demandandpricescenariosfornewyearsU.S.corncropMY2014/15followbelow.
Itshouldbenotedthatthekeymarketdeterminingfactortofocusoninregardstoproductionsupply
prospectsistheprojectedsizeofthe2014U.S.corncropandtheprojectedprobabilityattachedtoit.Inthese
projectionsthelowacreageandlowyieldscenariosweredeliberatelyplacedtogetherinscenario#3to
representthelow2014U.S.cornproductionscenario.Similarly,thehighplantedacreageandhighyield
scenariosaredeliberatelyplacedtogethertorepresentthehigh2014productionoutcomeinscenario#2.It
ispossibleandindeedlikelythatifattheendofthe2014U.S.corngrowingseasonthesizeoftheU.S.corn
cropcouldbenearlyequaltoeitherthehighproductionorlowproductionoutcomesofscenarios#2or#3,
butfordifferentspecificacreageand/oryieldoutcomesthaneitherofthesescenariosareconstructedon.

#1:LikelyProductionScenario:Production=13.364bb,9.99%S/U,$4.35/bu50%Probability
Itisestimatedherethatthereisa5outof10or50%chanceoffinal2014finalU.S.cornproduction
beingapproximately13.364billionbushels(bb).InthisKSUforecast,thefollowingassumptionsareusedto
derivethatprojection.First,itisassumedthat2014U.S.cornplantedandharvestedacreageareequaltothe
USDAsprojectionof91.641millionacres(ma)and83.839ma,respectively,assumingU.S.corn%harvested
toplantedacreageof91.49%(Table1).Then,asimple19732013trendlineyieldforecastof159.4bu/acis
used,leadingtoaforecastof2014U.S.cornproductionof13.364bb.
TotalU.S.cornsuppliesareprojectedtobe14.640bb,U.S.totalcornusageat13.310bb,endingstocksof
1.330bb,and%endingstockstousenear9.99%fornewcropMY2014/15.U.S.cornaveragepriceswould
beintherangeof$3.85$4.850perbushel(midpoint=$4.35)fornewcropMY2014/15(Table1andFigure
7).

#2:HigherProductionScenario:Production=13.971bb,12.16%S/U,$4.10/bu35%Probability
Itisestimatedherethatthereisa3.5outof10or35%chanceoffinal2014finalU.S.cornproduction
beingapproximately13.971bb.InthisKSUforecast,thefollowingassumptionsareusedtoderivethat
projection.First,itisassumedthat2014U.S.cornplantedacreageis92.891ma,whichis1.250mamorethan
theUSDAprojectionof91.641ma,andmarginallylessthantheupperendoftheUSDAs90%forecasterror
rangeat93.016ma(i.e.,101.5%x91.641ma)asreportedintheJune30thUSDAAcreagereport.U.S.corn
harvestedacreagein2014isforecasttobe84.493ma,assumingU.S.corn%harvestedtoplantedacreageof
91.49%asintheJuly11thUSDAWASDEforecasts(Table1).Projected2014U.S.cornyieldinthisscenariois
164.4bu/ac,whichis5bu/acmorethantheasimple19732013trendlineyieldforecastof159.4bu/acthatis
usedintheKSUlikelyscenario,butstilllessthantheUSDAsinitial2014yieldprojectionof165.3bu/ac.
Giventheselargecropassumptions,2014U.S.cornproductionisforecasttobe13.971bb.
TotalU.S.cornsuppliesareprojectedtobe15.237bb,U.S.totalcornusageat13.585bb,endingstocksof
1.652bb,and%endingstockstousenear12.16%fornewcropMY2014/15.U.S.cornaveragepriceswould
beintherangeof$3.60$4.60perbushel(midpoint=$4.10)fornewcropMY2014/15(Table1andFigure
7).

#3:LowerProductionScenario:Production=12.355bb,8.99%S/U,$4.90/bu15%Probability
Itisestimatedherethatthereisa1.5outof10or15%chanceoffinal2014finalU.S.cornproduction
beingapproximately12.355bb.Thefollowingassumptionsareusedtoderivethatprojection.First,itis
assumedthat2014U.S.cornplantedacreageis90.391ma,whichis1.250malessthantheUSDAprojectionof
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91.641ma,andmarginalllylargerthanthelowerendoftheUSDAs90%forecasterrorrangeat90.266ma
(i.e.,98.5%of91.641ma)asreportedintheJune30thUSDAAcreagereport(Table1).Projected2014U.S.
cornyieldinthisscenarioisprojectedtobe149.4bu/ac,whichis10bu/aclessthantheasimple19732013
trendlineyieldforecastof159.4bu/acthatisusedinthelikelyscenario,butstill26bu/acor21%largerthan
theUSDAsfinalyieldindroughtstrickenMY2012/13of123.4bu/ac.Giventhesesmallcropassumptions,
2014U.S.cornproductionisforecasttobe12.355bb.
TotalU.S.cornsuppliesareprojectedtobe13.651bb,U.S.totalcornusageat12.525bb,endingstocksof
1,126mb,and%endingstockstousenear8.99%fornewcropMY2014/15.U.S.cornaveragepriceswould
beintherangeof$4.40$5.40perbushel(midpoint=$4.90)fornewcropMY2014/15(Table1andFigure
7).

II.WorldCornSupplyDemandTrends
TheUSDAforecastthatnewcrop2014/15marketingyearWorldcornproductionwillbeessentially
equaltocurrentyearMY2013/14production.Worldcorntotalsuppliesof1,154mmtinnewcropMY
2014/15areup2.8%over1,123mmtincurrentyearMY2013/14,andup15.0%over1,003mmtinMY
2012/13.Consequently,Worldcorntotaluseisalsoprojectedtobe966mmtinnewcropMY2014/15,up
1.8%over949mmtincurrentyearMY2013/14,andup11.7%over865mmtMY2012/13.Worldcorn
endingstocksarealsoprojectedtocontinuetoincrease,withtheUSDAprojectingendingstocksof188.1mmt
innewcropMY2014/15,up8.4%from173.4mmtincurrentyearMY2013/14,andup36.1%from138.2
mmtinMY2012/13.
Thissituationisaresultofthehistoricallylarge2013SouthAmericanfeedgraincropthatwasharvestedin
thefirsthalfoftheyearandthatwaasbeenfollowedbyarecordlarge2013U.S.corncropharvestedinthe
fallmonths.Thesedevelopmentsin2013ledtogrowthinU.S.andWorldcornsupplies,endingstocks,and%
endingstockstouseincurrentMY2013/14.ProjectionsoflargeandnearlyunchangedU.S.andforeign
corninnewcropMY2014/15combinedwithlargerWorldcorncarryoutfromtheendofcurrentMY
2013/14intothebeginningofnewcropMY2014/15,havecausedUSDAprojectionsofbothtotalsupplies
andendingstocksofWorldcorntogrowinthelasttwomarketingyearsoverMY2012/13levels.Going
forward,thegeneralmarketconsensusisthatthelarge2014worldcornproductionislikely,withmarkedly
lowercornpricesinlate2014andoninto2015.Thatsaid,prospectsformarkedlyhigherU.S.cornprices
throughspringsummer2014willdependonwhetheranyserious,damagingproblemsoccurin2014U.S.corn
production.

IIA.WorldCornProductionbyCountry/Region
ProjectedWorldcornproductionof981.1mmtfornewcropMY2014/15wouldbethesecondhighest
onrecord,beingdownmarginallyfromtherecordhighof984.5mmtincurrentMY2013/14;868.8mmtin
MY2012/13;andtherangeof796889mmtduringtheMY2007/08MY2011/12period(Table2&Figure9).
Foreign(nonU.S.)cornproductionisprojectedtobe627.2mmtinnewcropMY2014/15,downmarginally
from630.7mmtincurrentMY2013/14,andup5.4%from595.0mmtinMY2012/13.
Table2providesaprojectedlistofthemajorcornproducingcountriesorregionsintheWorldinthenew
crop2014/15marketingyear.ProductionestimatesarealsoprovidedforthesemajorWorldcornproducers
forcurrentMY2013/14andinMY2012/13.YearoveryearincreasesareprojectedinnewcropMY
Page|8


2014/15intheUnitedStates(up0.25to353.7mmt),Argentina(up2.0to26.0mmt),theEuropeanUnion(up
0.68to65.3mmt),andChina(up1.51to220.0mmt),aswellasMexico(up0.60to22.5mmt)andSoutheast
Asia(up0.66to27.5mmt).YearoveryeardecreasesareprojectedinnewcropMY2014/15inBrazil(down
4.0to74.0mmt),SouthAfrica(down1.0to13.5mmt),Egypt(down0.05to5.75mmt),Canada(down1.7to
12.5mmt),andUkraine(down3.9to27.0mmt).
TheUnitedStates(354mmt)isprojectedtobethelargestproducerofcorninnewcropMY2014/15,
followedbyChina(220mmt),Brazil(74mmt),SoutheastAsia(27.5mmt),Ukraine(27.0mmt),Argentina(26.0
mmt),Mexico(22.5mmt),SouthAfrica(13.5mmt),Canada(12.5mmt),andEgypt(5.75mmt).

IIB.WorldCornExportsbyCountry/Region
GlobalcornexportsinnewcropMY2014/15areprojectedtobe115.2mmt,down7.6%from125.0
mmtincurrentMY2013/14,whilebeingup21.0%from95.2mmtinMY2012/13(Table3).Foreign(non
U.S.)cornexportsareprojectedtobe72.0mmtinnewcropMY2014/15,downfrom76.7mmtincurrent
MY2013/14,anddownfrom76.6mmtinMY2012/13.
Table3providesaprojectedlistofthemajorcornexportingcountriesorregionsintheWorldinthenew
crop2014/15marketingyear.ExportestimatesarealsoprovidedforthesemajorWorldcornexportersfor
currentMY2013/14andMY2012/13.YearoveryearincreasesincornexportsinnewcropMY2014/15
areprojectedforArgentina,withdecreasesforecastfortheUnitedStates,Brazil,SouthAfrica,andthe
Ukraine.However,decreasedexportsareprojectedforArgentina,SouthAfrica,SoutheastAsia,Canada,and
theUkraine.
TheUnitedStates(43.2mmt)istheprojectedleaderinWorldcornexportsinnewcropMY2014/15,
followedbyBrazil(20.0mmt),ArgentinaandUkraine(16.0mmt),SouthAfrica(2.2mmt),theEuropeanUnion
(2.0mmt),andCanada(1.0mmt).

IIC.WorldCornImportsbyCountry/Region
GlobalcornimportsinnewcropMY2014/15areprojectedtobea114.9mmt,down2.1%from117.4
mmtincurrentMY2013/14,andup15.5%from99.5mmtinMY2012/13(Table4).Foreign(nonU.S.)corn
importsareprojectedtobe114.1mmtinnewcropMY2014/15,downfrom116.5mmtincurrentMY
2013/14,butupfrom95.4mmtinMY2012/13.
Table4providesaprojectedlistofthemajorcornimportingcountriesorregionsintheWorldinthenew
crop2014/15marketingyear,alongwithcurrentMY2013/14andMY2012/13.Yearoveryearincreasesin
cornimportsinnewcropMY2014/15areprojectedforJapan,Canada,andtheFormerSovietUnionRegion
(12countries).However,decreasedimportsareprojectedfortheUnitedStates,Egypt,Mexico,Southeast
Asia,SouthKorea,andChina.
Japan(16.0mmt)isprojectedtobethelargestWorldcornimporterinnewcropMY2014/15,followed
bytheEuropeanUnion(13.0mmt),Mexico(10.9mmt),SouthKorea(9.5mmt),SoutheastAsia(9.2mmt),
Egypt(6.5mmt),China(3.0mmt),Brazil(0.8mmt),andCanada(0.5mmt).

IID.WorldCornFeedUsebyCountry/Region
GlobalcorndomesticfeeduseinnewcropMY2014/15isprojectedtobe593.9mmt,up3.6%from
573.5mmtincurrentMY2013/14,andup14.5%from518.8mmtinMY2012/13(Table5).Foreign(non
Page|9


U.S.)corndomesticfeeduseisprojectedtobe461.8mmtinnewcropMY2014/15,up4.5%from442.0
mmtincurrentMY2013/14,andup12.9%from408.9mmtinMY2012/13.
Table5providesaprojectedlistofthemajorcountriesorregionsintheWorldintermsofcorndomestic
feeduseinthenewcrop2014/15marketingyear,alongwithcurrentMY2013/14andMY2012/13.Year
overyearincreasesincornfeeduseinnewcropMY2014/15areprojectedtheUnitedStates,Argentina,
Brazil,SouthAfrica,Egypt,theEuropeanUnion,Japan,Mexico,SoutheastAsia,China,andtheUkraine,witha
decreaseprojectedforCanada.
China(162.0mmt)isprojectedtobethelargestWorlduserofcornfordomesticfeedinginnewcropMY
2014/15,followedbytheUnitedStates(132.1mmt),theEuropeanUnion(57.5mmt),Brazil(47.5mmt),
SoutheastAsia(27.7mmt),Mexico(16.0mmt),Japan(11.5mmt),Egypt(10.2mmt),Ukraine(9.5mmt),South
Korea(7.8mmt),Canada(6.7mmt),Argentina(6.0mmt),andSouthAfrica(5.3mmt).

IIE.WorldCornFood,Seed,&Industrial(FSI)UsebyCountry/Region
GlobalcornFood,SeedandIndustrial(FSI)useinnewcropMY2014/15isprojectedtobe372.7mmt,
down0.8%from375.7mmtincurrentMY2013/14,andup7.6%from346.5mmtinMY2012/13(Table6).
Foreign(nonU.S.)cornFSIuseisprojectedtobe209.0mmtinnewcropMY2014/15,down1.2%from
211.6mmtincurrentMY2013/14,butup8.5%from192.7mmtinMY2012/13.
Table6providesaprojectedlistofthemajorcountriesorregionsintheWorldintermsofcornFSIusein
thenewcrop2014/15marketingyear,alongwithcurrentMY2013/14,andMY2012/13.Yearoveryear
increasesincornFSIuseinnewcropMY2014/15areprojectedforArgentina,theEuropeanUnion,Mexico,
SoutheastAsia,Canada,andChina,withdecreasesforecastfortheUnitedStatesandSouthAfrica.No
changeisforecastforBrazil,Egypt,Japan,SouthKorea,andUkraine.
TheUnitedStates(163.5mmt)isprojectedtobethelargestWorlduserofcornforFSIuseinnewcrop
MY2014/15,followedbyChina(60.0mmt),theEuropeanUnion(19.0mmt),Mexico(16.8mmt),Brazil(9.0
mmt),SoutheastAsia(8.2mmt),SouthAfrica(6.1mmt),Canada(5.5mmt),Japan(4.5mmt),Argentina(3.0
mmt),SouthKorea(2.1mmt),Egypt(2.0mmt),andUkraine(1.4mmt).

IIF.WorldCornTotalUsebyCountry/Region
ProjectedWorldcorntotaluseof966.5mmtinnewcropMY2014/15isup1.8%from949.2mmtfor
currentMY2013/14;865.2mmtinMY2012/13;andtherangeof774868mmtduringtheMY2007/08MY
2011/12period(Table7andFigure9).Foreign(nonU.S.)corntotaluseisprojectedtobe670.8mmtinnew
cropMY2014/15,up2.6%from653.7mmtincurrentMY2013/14,andup11.5%from601.6mmtinMY
2012/13.
Table7providesaprojectedlistofthemajorcountriesorregionsintheWorldintermsofcorntotalusein
thenewcrop2014/15marketingyear,alongwithcurrentMY2013/14andMY2012/13.Yearoveryear
increasesincorntotaluseinnewcropMY2014/15areprojectedforArgentina,Brazil,Egypt,theEuropean
Union,Japan,Mexico,SoutheastAsia,China,andtheUkraine,withadecreaseprojectedforSouthAfrica.No
changeisexpectedfortheUnitedStates,SouthKoreaandCanada.
TheUnitedStates(295.5mmt)isprojectedtobethelargestWorlduserofcorninnewcropMY2014/15,
followedbytheChina(222.0mmt),theEuropeanUnion(76.5mmt),Brazil(56.5mmt),SoutheastAsia(35.9
Page|10


mmt),Mexico(32.8mmt),Japan(16.0mmt),Canada(12.2mmt)andEgypt(12.2mmt),SouthAfrica(11.4
mmt),Ukraine(10.9mmt),SouthKorea(9.9mmt),andArgentina(9.0mmt).

IIG.WorldCornEndingStocksbyCountry/Region
ProjectedWorldcornendingstocksof188.1mmtfornewcropMY2014/15isanincreaseof14.6mmt
(up8.4%)from173.42mmtincurrentMY2013/14andifattainedwouldbethelargestamountofWorld
cornendingstockssinceatleastMY2007/08.Overthelastsevenyears,Worldcornendingstockshave
equaled132mmtinMY2007/08;147mmtinMY2008/09;147mmtinMY2009/10;130mmtinMY2010/11;
135mmtinMY2011/12;138mmtinMY2012/13;173mmtincurrentyearMY2013/14;andareprojected
tobe188mmtinnewcropMY2014/15.Foreign(nonU.S.)cornendingstocksisprojectedtobe142.3
mmtinnewcropMY2014/15,upmarginallyfrom141.8mmtincurrentMY2013/14,andup21.3%from
117.3mmtinMY2012/13.
Table8providesaprojectedlistofthemajorcountriesorregionsintheWorldtermsofcornendingstocks
inthenewcrop2014/15marketingyear,alongwithcurrentMY2013/14andMY2012/13.Yearoveryear
increasesincornendingstocksinnewcropMY2014/15areprojectedfortheUnitedStates,Argentina,
EgyptandJapan(smallincreases),Mexico,SoutheastAsia,China,andUkraine,whiledecreasesareprojected
forBrazil,SouthAfrica(smalldecrease),theEuropeanUnion,SouthKorea,andCanada.
China(80.4mmt)isprojectedtobethelargestWorldholderofcornendingstocksinnewcropMY
2014/15,followedbytheUnitedStates(45.8mmt),Brazil(15.8mmt),theEuropeanUnion(6.1mmt),
Argentina(4.5mmt),SoutheastAsia(3.8mmt),SouthAfrica(3.0mmt),Mexico(2.6mmt),Ukraine(2.4mmt),
Egypt(2.2mmt),Canada(1.4mmt),SouthKorea(1.1mmt),andJapan(0.5mmt).

IIH.WorldCornEndingStockstoUsebyCountry/Region
Worldcorn%endingstockstouseareprojectedtobe19.5%innewcropMY2014/15,upfrom18.4%in
currentMY2013/14,15.9%inMY2012/13,15.5%inMY2011/12,and15.2%inMY2010/11,whilebeing
equaltothetopendoftherangeof17.0%18.8%intheMY2007/08throughMY2009/10period.Historically,
theminimumlevelsofWorldcorn%endingstockstousesincetheearly1970shaveoccurredinMY1972/73
(12.3%),MY1973/74(11.8%S/U),MY2006/07(15.3%S/U),andintherecentmarketingyearsofMY2010/11
(15.2%S/U),MY2011/12(15.5%S/U),andMY2012/13(15.9%S/U).
Restated,Worldcornendingstockstouseof15.2%inMY2010/11arethelowestlevelsince11.8%inMY
1973/74(Table9).Foreign(nonU.S.)cornendingstockstouseisprojectedtobe19.2%innewcropMY
2014/15,downfrom19.4%incurrentMY2013/14,andupfrom17.3%inMY2012/13.
Table9providesaprojectedlistofthemajorcountriesorregionsintheWorldintermsofcornpercent(%)
endingstockstouseinthenewcrop2014/15marketingyear,alongwithcurrentMY2013/14andMY
2012/13.Yearoveryearincreasesincorn%endingstockstouseinnewcropMY2014/15areprojectedfor
theUnitedStates,Argentina,Brazil,Egypt,Mexico,andSoutheastAsia,.Decreasedendingstockstouseare
projectedforSouthAfrica,theEuropeanUnion,Japan,SouthKorea,Canada,China,thebroadergroupofthe
FormerSovietUnion(12countries),andUkraineindividuallyfromwithintheFSU12.
China(36.2%)isprojectedtobethelargestWorldholderofcornintermsofrelativeusage(i.e.,percent
endingstockstouse)innewcropMY2014/15,followedbySouthAfrica(22.2%),Brazil(20.6%),Argentina

Page|11


(18.2%),Egypt(18.0%),theUnitedStates(13.5%),SouthKorea(11.3%),SoutheastAsia(10.3%),Canada
(10.2%),Ukraine(8.9%),Mexico(7.8%)andtheEuropeanUnion(7.8%),andJapan(3.3%).

III.RelationshipBetweenWorldCorn%EndingStockstoUse&U.S.CornPrices
SimilartotherelationshipbetweenU.S.cornendingstockstouseandU.S.averagecornprices(seeFigure
8),sinceMY1973/74anegativerelationshiphasexistedbetweenU.S.cornseasonaveragecashpricesand
Worldcorn%endingstockstousebutwithanadjustmentorjumpafterMY2007/08(Figure10).
LargerWorldcornsupplydemandbalancesrelativetouse(i.e.,higherpercentendingstockstouse)are
typicallyassociatedwithlowerU.S.andWorldcornprices,whilesmallersupplydemandbalancesareusually
associatedwithhighercornpricesallelsebeingequal.AsinFigure8earlier,U.S.cornpricesinFigure10are
reportedonanominalbasis(i.e.,notadjustedforinflation).
WhereastheminimumU.S.cornpercentstockstousesinceMY1973/74was5.0%inthehistorictight
stocksyearofMY1995/96,thehistoricminimuminWorldcornpercentstockstouseof11.8%occurredin
MY1973/74.Since2007/08,Worldcornendingstockstousehavenotfallenbelow15.2%inMY2010/11and
15.5%inMY2011/12(15.5%S/U).CurrentprojectionsareforWorldcornpercentstockstousetobe18.9%
innewcropMY2014/15.

****************************

Page|12

Table1.U.S.CornSupplyDemandBalanceSheet:MY2008/09NewCropMY2014/15(July11,2014USDAWASDE&KSUProjections)
KSU
Item
%ProbabilityofOccurring

2008/09

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

2012/13

2013/14

USDA
2014/15

KSU

KSU

LowerYield
&Production

TrendYield
&Production

HigherYield
&Production

2014/15
15%

2014/15
50%

2014/15
35%

PlantedArea(millionacres)

86.0

86.4

88.2

91.9

97.2

95.4

91.641

90.391

91.641

92.891

HarvestedArea(millionacres)

78.6

79.5

81.4

84.0

87.4

87.7

83.839

82.695

83.839

84.983

%Harvested/PlantedArea

91.4%

92.0%

92.4%

91.4%

89.9%

91.9%

91.49%

91.49%

91.49%

91.49%

Yield/harvestedacre(bu/ac)

153.9

164.7

152.8

147.2

123.4

158.8

165.3

149.4

159.4

164.4

1,624

1,673

1,708

1,128

989

821

1,246

1,246

1,246

1,246

12,092

13,092

12,447

12,360

10,780

13,925

13,860

12,355

13,364

13,971

14

28

29

162

35

30

50

30

20

13,729

14,774

14,182

13,517

11,932

14,781

15,136

14,640

15,237

BeginningStocks
Production
Imports
TotalSupply

13,651

EthanolforfuelUse

3,709

4,591

5,019

5,000

4,648

5,075

5,050

4,900

5,050

5,150

NonethanolFood,Seed&
IndustrialUse
Exports

1,316

1,370

1,407

1,428

1,405

1,385

1,385

1,375

1,385

1,410

1,849

1,980

1,834

1,543

731

1,900

1,700

1,400

1,700

1,800

Feed&ResidualUse

5,182

5,125

4,795

4,557

4,329

5,175

5,200

4,850

5,175

5,225

12,056

13,066

13,055

12,528

11,111

13,535

13,335

12,525

13,310

13,585

1,673

1,708

1,128

989

821

1,246

1,801

1,126

1,330

1,652

TotalUse

EndingStocks

%EndingStockstoUse

13.88%

13.07%

8.64%

7.89%

7.38%

9.20%

13.50%

8.99%

9.99%

12.16%

U.S.CornAverageFarm
Price($/bushel)

$4.06

$3.55

$5.18

$6.22

$6.89

$4.35
$4.55
($4.45)

$3.65
$4.35
($4.00)

$4.40
$5.40
($4.90)

$3.75
$4.75
($4.25)

$3.55
$4.55
($4.05)

Page|13

91.1% 90.8%

100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

91.0% 91.9% 90.2% 92.5% 91.4% 92.0% 92.4% 91.4% 89.9% 91.9% 91.5% 91.5% 91.5% 91.5%
87.9% 90.3%

MillionAcres

125
93.5

100

86.0

86.4

88.2

91.9

97.2

95.4

91.6

90.4

91.6

92.9

75
50

86.5 78.6 79.5 81.4 84.0 87.4 87.7

83.8

82.7

83.8

85.0

25
0

%HarvestedorPlantedAcres

Figure2.U.S.CornPlantedAcreagefor20002013Plus2014USDA&KSUProjections

Year
PlantedAcres

HarvestedAcres

%HarvestedofPlanted

U.S.AverageCornYieldperAcre

Figure3.U.S.CornYieldTrendfor19732013Plus2014Projections
200

19732013U.S.CornYieldTrend
Yield(bu/ac)=83.81bu+1.80bu/year
TrendYieldfor2014=159.4bu/acre

160

160.3

164.7

165.3
158.8

120

164.4
159.4

123.4

80

149.4

40
0

Year
Yields

USDA2014

KSU14LowProdn

KSU14LikelyProdn

KSU14HighProdn

Page|14

Figure4.TrendsinU.S.CornUse&EndingStockssinceMY2004/05(July11,2014USDAWASDE)
7.0

6.135

6.115

6.0

5.858

5.540

5.182

5.126

5.019

MillionBushels

5.200

5.175

5.000

5.0

5.175

4.648
4.591

4.0

5.075

4.799

4.557

5.050

5.050

4.326

3.709

3.0

2.114

2.0

1.323

1.0

1.818

1.967
1.603

3.049

2.119
1.304

2.134

2.125

1.801

1.708

1.673

1.624

1.128
2.437

1.979

1.849

1.830

0.989
1.543

0.0

1.403

1.246
0.821

1.900

1.700

0.731

1.700

MarketingYears

Feed+Residual

EthanolUse

Exports

OtherFSIUse

EndingStocks

6/4/2010 7/4/2014
U.S.DOEEIAdata

2010/11

2011/12

2012/13

2013/14

10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0

RateofCornUse(BillionBu/mktgyear)

1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0

2009/10

EthanolProdn(MillionBarrels/Day)

Figure5.WeeklyU.S.OxygenatePlantProductionofFuelEthanol&EstimatedCornUse

Month/Week/Year
RateofEthanolProduction(1,000Barrels/day)

RateofCornUse/MktgYear(BillionBu.)

Page|15

Figure6.U.S.CornSupplyDemandwithDDGSAdjustments(July11,2014USDAWASDE)
BillionBuCornorCornEquivalents

16

EndStocks

14

DDGSExports

12
CornExports

10
8

NonEthanolFSI

CornEthanol

DDGSLivestockFeed

CornLivestockFeed

0
Production

MarketingYear

Figure7.U.S.CornEndingStocksvsU.S.Avg.CashPrices:MY2006/07throughNewCrop2014/15
$10.00

100

$6.89
$6.22

75

$5.18
$4.20

50
25

$4.06

$3.04

11.6

12.8

13.9

$4.45

$3.55

13.1

USDA14/15
$4.00

KSU14/15
KSU14/15
50%prob
35%prob
$4.35
$4.10

$8.00
KSU14/15
15%prob
$6.00
$4.90
$4.00

8.6

7.9

7.4

9.2

13.5

10.0

12.2

9.0

$2.00

U.S.Cash$perbu

%EndingStockstoUse

125

$0.00

MarketingYear

U.S.Corn%EndingStocks/Use

U.S.CornPrice

Page|16

Figure8.U.S.CornPricevsU.S.%StockstoUse(MY1973/74throughprojectedNewCropMY2014/15)
(July11thUSDAWASDEReport&KSUForecast)
2012/13:

$8.00

"Current"2013/14

7.4%S/U,$6.89/bu

9.2%S/U,$4.45/bu

$7.00

KSU:New Crop 2014/15

10.0%S/U,$4.35/bu
2011/12

$perbushel

$6.00
$5.00

2010/11

2007/08
2008/09

$4.00

USDA:New Crop2014/15

2009/10

13.5%S/U,$4.00/bu

$3.00

1995/96

$2.00
$1.00
0

10

15

20

25 30 35 40 45 50
U.S.Corn%EndingStockstoUse

55

60

65

70

Figure9.WorldCornSupplyDemand:MY2007/08thru2014/15(July11,2014USDAWASDE)
1,350

Usage3.5%/yr
since2007/08

Production

MillionMetricTons

3.3%/yrsince2007/08
981

900

836

801

966

869 984

796

942

783

889
826

870

854

774

819

868

450

RecoveryinWorld
CornExportsin
current2013/14to
125.0mmt

Down8%innew
crop2014/15to
115.2mmt
99 84 97 91 117 95 125 115

15yearhighinend
stocksprojectedfor
newcrop2014/15
@188.1mmt

12yearhighin%
endingstockstouse
inMY2014/15
@19.5%StxUse

132 147 147 130 135 138

173 188

Production

2007/08

2008/09

Usage

2009/10

2010/11

Trade

2011/12

2012/13

EndStocks

2013/14

2014/15

Page|17

Figure10.U.S.CornPricevs%WorldCornStockstoUse(MY1973/74throughMY2014/15)
(July11,2014USDAWASDEReport)

$8.00

2012/13
15.9%S/U,$6.89/bu

$7.00

$perbushel

$6.00

"Current"2013/14
18.4%S/U,$4.45/bu
2010/11

$5.00

2008/09

$4.00

2007/08

"NewCrop"2014/15
19.5%S/U,$4.00/bu

2009/10

$3.00
1973/74

$2.00

1986/87

$1.00
10

15

20

25
30
35
40
WorldCorn%EndingStockstoUse

45

50

Page|18

Table 2. World Corn Production Projections for "New Crop" MY 2014/15, "Current Year" MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13

World Corn Production

by Major Country / Region

Corn
Production:
New Crop
2014/15
July 2014

mmt

Corn
Production:
June 2014
New Crop
2014/15
(1 month ago)

mmt

New Crop
2014/15
Production:
July Less
June 2014

mmt

New Crop
2014/15
Production:
Percent (%)
July of
June 2014

Percent (%)

July Corn
Production:
Current
2013/14

May Corn
Production:
Current
2013/14

mmt

mmt

July Less
June Corn
Production
for Current
2013/14

mmt

New Crop
2014/15
Production
Less Last
years 2013/14

% New Crop
2014/15
Production of
Current 2013/14

Corn
Production:
2012/13
(2 years ago)

New Crop
2014/15
Production
Less 2012/13

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

% Current
2014/15
Production
of 2012/13

Percent (%)

World

981.12

981.12

0.00

100.0%

984.45

981.89

2.56

(3.33)

99.7%

868.81

112.31

112.9%

United States

353.97

353.97

0.00

100.0%

353.72

353.72

0.00

0.25

100.1%

273.83

80.14

129.3%

Total Foreign

627.16

627.16

0.00

100.0%

630.73

628.17

2.56

(3.57)

99.4%

594.98

32.18

105.4%

Major Exporters

113.50

113.50

0.00

100.0%

116.50

114.50

2.00

(3.00)

97.4%

120.87

(7.37)

93.9%

Argentina

26.00

26.00

0.00

100.0%

24.00

24.00

0.00

2.00

108.3%

27.00

(1.00)

96.3%

Brazil

74.00

74.00

0.00

100.0%

78.00

76.00

2.00

(4.00)

94.9%

81.50

(7.50)

90.8%

South Africa

13.50

13.50

0.00

100.0%

14.50

14.50

0.00

(1.00)

93.1%

12.37

1.13

109.1%

Major Importers

121.17

121.17

0.00

100.0%

119.25

119.41

(0.16)

1.92

101.6%

111.62

9.55

108.6%

Egypt
European Union
- 28 Countries

5.75

5.75

0.00

100.0%

5.80

5.80

0.00

(0.05)

99.1%

5.80

(0.05)

99.1%

100.0%

64.57

64.57

0.00

0.68

101.1%

58.87

6.38

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

65.25

65.25

0.00

Japan

0.00

0.00

0.00

Mexico

22.50

22.50

0.00

100.0%

21.90

21.90

0.00

0.60

102.7%

21.59

0.91

104.2%

Southeast Asia

27.46

27.46

0.00

100.0%

26.80

26.96

(0.16)

0.66

102.5%

25.22

2.24

108.9%

0.08

0.08

0.00

100.0%

0.08

0.08

0.00

0.00

100.0%

0.08

0.00

100.0%

12.50

12.50

0.00

100.0%

14.20

14.20

0.00

(1.70)

88.0%

13.06

(0.56)

95.7%

220.00

220.00

0.00

100.0%

218.49

217.73

0.76

1.51

100.7%

205.61

14.39

107.0%

44.21

44.21

0.00

100.0%

46.98

47.01

(0.03)

(2.77)

94.1%

32.36

11.85

136.6%

27.00

27.00

0.00

100.0%

30.90

30.90

0.00

(3.90)

87.4%

20.92

6.08

129.1%

South Korea
Canada
China
Former Soviet Union
- 12 Countries
Ukraine

#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!

110.8%
#DIV/0!

Page|19

Table 3. World Corn Export Projections for "New Crop" MY 2014/15, "Current Year" MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13
World Corn Exports
by Major Country / Region

Corn
Exports: New
Crop 2014/15
July 2014

mmt
World

Corn Exports:
June 2014
New Crop
2014/15
(1 month ago)

mmt

New Crop
2014/15
Exports:
July Less
June 2014

mmt

New Crop
2014/15 Exports:
Percent (%)
July of June 2014

Percent (%)

July Corn
Exports:
Current
2013/14

June Corn
Exports:
Current
2013/14

mmt

mmt

July Less
June Corn
Exports for
Current
2013/14

mmt

New Crop
2014/15
Exports Less
Last years
2013/14

mmt

% New Crop
2014/15 Exports
of Current
2013/14

Corn
Exports:
2012/13
(2 years ago)

New Crop
2014/15
Exports
Less 2012/13

% Current
2014/15 Exports
of 2012/13

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

115.22

115.52

(0.30)

99.7%

124.97

124.16

0.81

(9.75)

92.2%

95.19

20.03

121.0%

United States

43.18

43.18

0.00

100.0%

48.26

48.26

0.00

(5.08)

89.5%

18.58

24.60

232.4%

Total Foreign

72.04

72.34

(0.30)

99.6%

76.71

75.90

0.81

(4.67)

93.9%

76.61

(4.57)

94.0%

Major Exporters

38.20

38.20

0.00

100.0%

37.00

37.00

0.00

1.20

103.2%

45.69

(7.49)

83.6%

Argentina

16.00

16.00

0.00

100.0%

13.50

13.50

0.00

2.50

118.5%

18.69

(2.69)

85.6%

Brazil

20.00

20.00

0.00

100.0%

20.50

20.50

0.00

(0.50)

97.6%

24.95

(4.95)

80.2%

South Africa

2.20

2.20

0.00

100.0%

3.00

3.00

0.00

(0.80)

73.3%

2.05

0.15

107.3%

Major Importers

2.95

2.95

0.00

100.0%

4.00

3.70

0.30

(1.05)

73.8%

2.82

0.13

104.6%

Egypt
European Union
- 28 Countries

0.01

0.01

0.00

100.0%

0.01

0.01

0.00

0.00

100.0%

0.01

0.00

100.0%

2.00

2.00

0.00

100.0%

2.20

2.00

0.20

(0.20)

90.9%

2.19

(0.19)

Japan

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Mexico

0.50

0.50

0.00

100.0%

0.50

0.50

0.00

0.00

100.0%

0.52

(0.02)

Southeast Asia

0.44

0.44

0.00

100.0%

1.29

1.19

0.10

(0.85)

34.1%

0.09

0.35

South Korea

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Canada

1.00

1.50

(0.50)

66.7%

1.50

1.20

0.30

(0.50)

66.7%

1.75

(0.75)

57.1%

China
Former Soviet Union
- 12 Countries

0.10

0.10

0.00

100.0%

0.10

0.10

0.00

0.00

100.0%

0.08

0.02

125.0%

19.94

19.94

0.00

100.0%

24.45

24.24

0.21

(4.51)

81.6%

15.00

4.94

132.9%

Ukraine

16.00

16.00

0.00

100.0%

20.00

20.00

0.00

(4.00)

80.0%

12.73

3.27

125.7%

#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!

91.3%
#DIV/0!
96.2%
488.9%
#DIV/0!

Page|20

Table 4. World Corn Import Projections for "New Crop" MY 2014/15, "Current Year" MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13
World Corn Imports
by Major Country / Region

Corn
Imports: New
Crop 2014/15
July 2014

mmt
World

Corn Imports:
June 2014
New Crop
2014/15
(1 month ago)

mmt

New Crop
2014/15
Imports: July
Less June
2014

New Crop
2014/15 Imports:
Percent (%)
July of June 2014

mmt

Percent (%)

July Corn
Imports:
Current
2013/14

June Corn
Imports:
Current
2013/14

mmt

mmt

July Less
June Corn
Imports
for Current
2013/14

mmt

New Crop
2014/15
Imports Less
Last years
2013/14

mmt

% New Crop
2014/15 Imports
of Current
2013/14

Corn
Imports:
2012/13
(2 years ago)

New Crop
2014/15
Imports Less
2012/13

% Current
2014/15 Imports
of 2012/13

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

114.87

114.77

0.10

100.1%

117.39

116.69

0.70

(2.52)

97.9%

99.48

15.39

United States

0.76

0.76

0.00

100.0%

0.89

0.89

0.00

(0.13)

85.4%

4.13

(3.37)

115.5%
18.4%

Total Foreign

114.11

114.01

0.10

100.1%

116.51

115.81

0.70

(2.40)

97.9%

95.36

18.75

119.7%

Major Exporters

0.84

0.84

0.00

100.0%

0.84

0.84

0.00

0.00

100.0%

0.97

(0.13)

Argentina

0.01

0.01

0.00

100.0%

0.01

0.01

0.00

0.00

100.0%

0.00

0.01

Brazil

0.80

0.80

0.00

100.0%

0.80

0.80

0.00

0.00

100.0%

0.89

(0.09)

89.9%

South Africa

0.03

0.03

0.00

100.0%

0.03

0.03

0.00

0.00

100.0%

0.08

(0.05)

37.5%

Major Importers

69.30

69.30

0.00

100.0%

72.20

71.20

1.00

(2.90)

96.0%

56.86

12.44

121.9%

Egypt
European Union
- 28 Countries

6.50

6.50

0.00

100.0%

7.00

7.00

0.00

(0.50)

92.9%

5.06

1.44

128.5%

13.00

13.00

0.00

100.0%

14.50

14.00

0.50

(1.50)

89.7%

11.35

1.65

114.5%

Japan

16.00

16.00

0.00

100.0%

15.50

15.50

0.00

0.50

103.2%

14.41

1.59

111.0%

Mexico

10.90

10.90

0.00

100.0%

11.50

11.50

0.00

(0.60)

94.8%

5.68

5.22

191.9%

Southeast Asia

9.20

9.20

0.00

100.0%

9.50

9.50

0.00

(0.30)

96.8%

7.96

1.24

115.6%

South Korea

9.50

9.50

0.00

100.0%

10.00

9.50

0.50

(0.50)

95.0%

8.17

1.33

116.3%

Canada

0.50

0.50

0.00

100.0%

0.40

0.40

0.00

0.10

125.0%

0.48

0.02

104.2%

China
Former Soviet Union
- 12 Countries

3.00

3.00

0.00

100.0%

3.50

4.00

(0.50)

(0.50)

85.7%

2.70

0.30

111.1%

0.42

0.42

0.00

100.0%

0.39

0.39

0.00

0.03

107.7%

0.34

0.08

123.5%

Ukraine

0.05

0.05

0.00

100.0%

0.05

0.05

0.00

0.00

100.0%

0.04

0.01

125.0%

86.6%
#DIV/0!

Page|21

Table 5. World Corn Domestic Feed Use for "New Crop" MY 2014/15, "Current Year" MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13
World Corn Feed Use
by Major Country / Region

Corn Feed
Use: New
Crop 2014/15
July 2014

mmt

Corn Feed
Use: June
2014 New
Crop 2014/15
(1 month ago)

mmt

New Crop
2014/15 Feed
Use: July
Less June
2014

New Crop
2014/15 Feed
Use: Percent (%)
July of June 2014

mmt

Percent (%)

July Corn
Feed Use:
Current
2013/14

June Corn
Feed Use:
Current
2013/14

mmt

mmt

July Less
June Corn
Feed Use
for Current
2013/14

mmt

New Crop
2014/15 Feed
Use Less Last
years 2013/14

mmt

% New Crop
2014/15 Feed
Use of Current
2013/14

Percent (%)

Corn Feed
Use: 2012/13
(2 years ago)

New Crop
2014/15
Feed Use
Less 2012/13

% Current
2014/15 Feed
Use of 2012/13

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

593.85

594.64

(0.79)

99.9%

573.49

575.99

(2.50)

20.36

103.6%

518.75

75.10

114.5%

United States

132.09

133.36

(1.27)

99.0%

131.45

134.63

(3.18)

0.64

100.5%

109.88

22.21

120.2%

Total Foreign

461.76

461.29

0.47

100.1%

442.04

441.36

0.68

19.72

104.5%

408.87

52.89

112.9%

58.80

58.80

0.00

100.0%

56.70

56.70

0.00

2.10

103.7%

54.90

3.90

107.1%

6.00

6.00

0.00

100.0%

5.50

5.50

0.00

0.50

109.1%

5.30

0.70

113.2%

47.50

47.50

0.00

100.0%

46.00

46.00

0.00

1.50

103.3%

44.50

3.00

106.7%

5.30

5.30

0.00

100.0%

5.20

5.20

0.00

0.10

101.9%

5.10

0.20

103.9%

Major Importers

134.80

134.50

0.30

100.2%

131.00

131.00

0.00

3.80

102.9%

119.28

15.52

113.0%

Egypt
European Union
- 28 Countries

10.20

10.20

0.00

100.0%

10.00

10.00

0.00

0.20

102.0%

9.70

0.50

105.2%

57.50

57.50

0.00

100.0%

57.50

57.00

0.50

0.00

100.0%

53.00

4.50

108.5%

Japan

11.50

11.50

0.00

100.0%

11.00

11.00

0.00

0.50

104.5%

10.00

1.50

115.0%

Mexico

16.00

16.00

0.00

100.0%

15.00

15.00

0.00

1.00

106.7%

11.00

5.00

145.5%

Southeast Asia

Major Exporters
Argentina
Brazil
South Africa

27.70

27.70

0.00

100.0%

26.30

26.40

(0.10)

1.40

105.3%

25.00

2.70

110.8%

South Korea

7.80

7.50

0.30

104.0%

7.80

7.50

0.30

0.00

100.0%

6.48

1.32

120.4%

Canada

6.70

6.70

0.00

100.0%

6.80

6.80

0.00

(0.10)

98.5%

6.28

0.42

106.7%

162.00

162.00

0.00

100.0%

154.00

154.00

0.00

8.00

105.2%

144.00

18.00

112.5%

21.14

21.19

(0.05)

99.8%

18.82

19.07

(0.25)

2.32

112.3%

15.52

5.62

136.2%

9.50

9.50

0.00

100.0%

8.50

8.50

0.00

1.00

111.8%

6.80

2.70

139.7%

China
Former Soviet Union
- 12 Countries
Ukraine

Page|22

Table 6. World Corn Food, Seed & Industrial (FSI) Use for "New Crop" MY 2014/15, "Current Year" MY 2013/14, and MY
2012/13
World Corn FSI Use
by Major Country / Region

Corn FSI
Use: New
Crop 2014/15
July 2014

mmt

Corn FSI Use:

June 2014
New Crop
2014/15
(1 month ago)

mmt

New Crop
2014/15 FSI
Use: July
Less June
2014

New Crop
2014/15 FSI Use:
Percent (%)
July of June 2014

mmt

Percent (%)

July Corn
FSI Use:
Current
2013/14

June Corn
FSI Use:
Current
2013/14

July Less
June Corn
FSI Use
for Current
2013/14

New Crop
2014/15 FSI
Use Less
2012/13

% Current
2014/15 FSI
Use of 2012/13

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

375.74

374.99

0.75

(3.06)

99.2%

346.47

$26.21

107.6%

163.45

0.00

100.0%

164.09

163.45

0.64

(0.64)

99.6%

153.76

$9.69

106.3%

209.42

(0.39)

99.8%

211.64

211.54

0.10

(2.61)

98.8%

192.71

$16.32

108.5%

18.10

18.10

0.00

100.0%

18.10

18.10

0.00

0.00

100.0%

16.50

$1.60

109.7%

Argentina

3.00

3.00

0.00

100.0%

2.80

2.80

0.00

0.20

107.1%

2.60

$0.40

115.4%

Brazil

9.00

9.00

0.00

100.0%

9.00

9.00

0.00

0.00

100.0%

8.00

$1.00

112.5%

South Africa

6.10

6.10

0.00

100.0%

6.30

6.30

0.00

(0.20)

96.8%

5.90

$0.20

103.4%

Major Importers

52.78

52.78

0.00

100.0%

52.63

51.93

0.70

0.15

100.3%

49.23

$3.55

107.2%

Egypt
European Union
- 28 Countries

2.00

2.00

0.00

100.0%

2.00

2.00

0.00

0.00

100.0%

2.00

$0.00

100.0%

372.88

United States

163.45

Total Foreign

209.03

Major Exporters

Percent (%)

Corn FSI
Use: 2012/13
(2 years ago)

99.9%

372.68

mmt

% New Crop
2014/15 FSI
Use of Current
2013/14

(0.20)

World

mmt

New Crop
2014/15 FSI
Use Less Last
years 2013/14

19.00

19.00

0.00

100.0%

18.50

18.50

0.00

0.50

102.7%

16.60

$2.40

114.5%

Japan

4.50

4.50

0.00

100.0%

4.50

4.50

0.00

0.00

100.0%

4.50

$0.00

100.0%

Mexico

16.75

16.75

0.00

100.0%

16.50

16.50

0.00

0.25

101.5%

16.00

$0.75

104.7%

Southeast Asia

8.20

8.20

0.00

100.0%

8.10

8.10

0.00

0.10

101.2%

7.90

$0.30

103.8%

South Korea

2.10

2.10

0.00

100.0%

2.10

2.10

0.00

0.00

100.0%

2.00

$0.10

105.0%

Canada
China
Former Soviet Union
- 12 Countries
Ukraine

5.50

5.50

0.00

100.0%

5.40

5.40

0.00

0.10

101.9%

5.33

$0.17

103.2%

60.00

60.00

0.00

100.0%

58.00

58.00

0.00

2.00

103.4%

56.00

$4.00

107.1%

2.87

2.87

0.00

100.0%

2.77

2.77

0.00

0.10

103.6%

2.57

$0.30

111.7%

1.40

1.40

0.00

100.0%

1.40

1.40

0.00

0.00

100.0%

1.30

$0.10

107.7%

Page|23

Table 7. World Corn Total Use for "New Crop" MY 2014/15, "Current Year" MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13
World Corn TOTAL Use
by Major Country / Region

Corn TOTAL
Use: New
Crop 2014/15
July 2014

mmt

Corn TOTAL
Use: June
2014 New
Crop 2014/15
(1 month ago)

mmt

New Crop
2014/15
TOTAL Use:
July Less
June 2014

New Crop
2014/15 TOTAL
Use: Percent (%)
July of June 2014

mmt

Percent (%)

July Corn
TOTAL
Use:
Current
2013/14

June Corn
TOTAL
Use:
Current
2013/14

July Less
June Corn
TOTAL Use
for Current
2013/14

New Crop
2014/15
TOTAL Use
Less Last
years 2013/14

% New Crop
2014/15
TOTAL Use of
Current 2013/14

Corn
TOTAL Use:
2012/13
(2 years ago)

New Crop
2014/15
TOTAL Use
Less 2012/13

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

% Current
2014/15
TOTAL Use
of 2012/13

Percent (%)

World

966.53

967.52

(0.99)

99.9%

949.23

950.98

(1.75)

17.30

101.8%

865.22

101.31

111.7%

United States

295.54

296.81

(1.27)

99.6%

295.54

298.08

(2.54)

0.00

100.0%

263.64

31.90

112.1%

Total Foreign

670.79

670.71

0.08

100.0%

653.68

652.90

0.78

17.11

102.6%

601.58

69.21

111.5%

76.90

76.90

0.00

100.0%

74.80

74.80

0.00

2.10

102.8%

71.40

5.50

107.7%

9.00

9.00

0.00

100.0%

8.30

8.30

0.00

0.70

108.4%

7.90

1.10

113.9%

Brazil

56.50

56.50

0.00

100.0%

55.00

55.00

0.00

1.50

102.7%

52.50

4.00

107.6%

South Africa

11.40

11.40

0.00

100.0%

11.50

11.50

0.00

(0.10)

99.1%

11.00

0.40

103.6%

Major Importers

187.58

187.28

0.30

100.2%

183.63

182.93

0.70

3.95

102.2%

168.51

19.07

111.3%

Egypt
European Union
- 28 Countries

12.20

12.20

0.00

100.0%

12.00

12.00

0.00

0.20

101.7%

11.70

0.50

104.3%

76.50

76.50

0.00

100.0%

76.00

75.50

0.50

0.50

100.7%

69.60

6.90

109.9%

Japan

16.00

16.00

0.00

100.0%

15.50

15.50

0.00

0.50

103.2%

14.50

1.50

110.3%

Mexico

32.75

32.75

0.00

100.0%

31.50

31.50

0.00

1.25

104.0%

27.00

5.75

121.3%

Southeast Asia

35.90

35.90

0.00

100.0%

34.40

34.50

(0.10)

1.50

104.4%

32.90

3.00

109.1%

9.90

9.60

0.30

103.1%

9.90

9.60

0.30

0.00

100.0%

8.48

1.42

116.7%

12.20

12.20

0.00

100.0%

12.20

12.20

0.00

0.00

100.0%

11.61

0.59

105.1%

222.00

222.00

0.00

100.0%

212.00

212.00

0.00

10.00

104.7%

200.00

22.00

111.0%

24.01

24.06

(0.05)

99.8%

21.59

21.84

(0.25)

2.42

111.2%

18.09

5.92

132.7%

10.90

10.90

0.00

100.0%

9.90

9.90

0.00

1.00

110.1%

8.10

2.80

134.6%

Major Exporters
Argentina

South Korea
Canada
China
Former Soviet Union
- 12 Countries
Ukraine

Page|24

Table 8. World Corn Ending Stocks for "New Crop" MY 2014/15, "Current Year" MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13
World Corn End Stocks
by Major Country / Region

Corn End
Stocks: New
Crop 2014/15
July 2014

mmt
World

Corn End
Stocks: June
2014 New
Crop 2014/15
(1 month ago)

mmt

New Crop
2014/15 End
Stocks: July
Less June
2014

mmt

New Crop
2014/15 End
Stocks: Percent
(%) July of June
2014

Percent (%)

July Corn
End
Stocks:
Current
2013/14

June Corn
End
Stocks:
Current
2013/14

mmt

mmt

July Less
June Corn
End Stocks
for Current
2013/14

mmt

New Crop
2014/15 End
Stocks Less
Last years
2013/14

mmt

% New Crop
2014/15 End
Stocks of
Current 2013/14

Corn End
Stocks:
2012/13
(2 years ago)

New Crop
2014/15 End
Stocks Less
2012/13

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

% Current
2014/15 End
Stocks of
2012/13

Percent (%)

188.05

182.65

5.40

103.0%

173.42

168.42

5.00

14.63

108.4%

138.20

49.85

136.1%

United States

45.76

43.85

1.91

104.4%

31.66

29.12

2.54

14.10

144.5%

20.86

24.90

219.4%

Total Foreign

142.30

138.80

3.50

102.5%

141.76

139.30

2.46

0.54

100.4%

117.34

24.96

121.3%

23.30

21.30

2.00

109.4%

24.07

21.39

2.68

(0.77)

96.8%

18.53

4.77

125.7%

4.54

4.54

0.00

100.0%

3.53

3.03

0.50

1.01

128.6%

1.32

3.22

343.9%

15.75

13.75

2.00

114.5%

17.45

14.95

2.50

(1.70)

90.3%

14.15

1.60

111.3%

3.02

3.02

0.00

100.0%

3.09

3.42

(0.33)

(0.07)

97.7%

3.07

(0.05)

98.4%

Major Importers

16.68

16.74

(0.06)

99.6%

16.33

16.09

0.24

0.35

102.1%

12.50

4.18

133.4%

Egypt
European Union
- 28 Countries

2.20

2.20

0.00

100.0%

2.16

1.76

0.40

0.04

101.9%

1.37

0.83

160.6%

6.11

5.91

0.20

103.4%

5.96

6.16

(0.20)

0.15

102.5%

5.09

1.02

120.0%

Japan

0.53

0.53

0.00

100.0%

0.52

0.52

0.00

0.01

101.9%

0.52

0.01

101.9%

Mexico

2.61

2.61

0.00

100.0%

2.46

2.46

0.00

0.15

106.1%

1.06

1.55

246.2%

Southeast Asia

3.76

3.92

(0.16)

95.9%

3.43

3.59

(0.16)

0.33

109.6%

2.82

0.94

133.3%

South Korea

1.12

1.22

(0.10)

91.8%

1.44

1.24

0.20

(0.32)

77.8%

1.26

(0.14)

88.9%

Canada

1.35

2.05

(0.70)

65.9%

2.45

2.75

(0.30)

(1.10)

55.1%

1.55

(0.20)

87.1%

80.36

78.10

2.26

102.9%

77.46

77.70

(0.24)

2.90

103.7%

65.57

14.79

122.6%

4.01

4.01

0.00

100.0%

3.38

4.38

(1.00)

0.63

118.6%

2.05

1.96

195.6%

2.39

2.39

0.00

100.0%

2.24

3.24

(1.00)

0.15

106.7%

1.19

1.20

200.8%

Major Exporters
Argentina
Brazil
South Africa

China
Former Soviet Union
- 12 Countries
Ukraine

Page|25

Table 9. World Corn Ending Stocks-to-Use for "New Crop" MY 2014/15, "Current Year" MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13
World Corn End Stx/Use
by Major Country / Region

Corn End
Stx/Use: New
Crop 2014/15
July 2014
Percent (%)

Corn End
Stx/Use: June
2014 New
Crop 2014/15
(1 month ago)

Percent (%)

New Crop
2014/15 End
Stx/Use:
July Less
June 2014
Percent (%)

New Crop
2014/15 End
Stx/Use: Percent
(%) July of June
2014
Percent (%)

July Corn
End
Stx/Use:
Current
2013/14
Percent (%)

June Corn
End
Stx/Use:
Current
2013/14
Percent (%)

July Less
June Corn
End Stx/Use
for Current
2013/14
Percent (%)

New Crop
2014/15 End
Stx/Use
Less Last
years 2013/14
Percent (%)

% New Crop
2014/15 End
Stx/Use of
Current 2013/14
Percent (%)

Corn End
Stx/Use:
2012/13
(2 years ago)
Percent (%)

New Crop
2014/15 End
Stx/Use
Less 2012/13
Percent (%)

% Current
2014/15 End
Stx/Use of
2012/13
Percent (%)

World

19.5%

18.9%

0.6%

103.1%

18.3%

17.7%

0.6%

1.2%

106.5%

16.0%

3.5%

121.8%

United States

13.5%

12.9%

0.6%

104.7%

9.2%

8.4%

5.1%

4.3%

76.3%

7.4%

6.1%

182.8%

Total Foreign

19.2%

18.7%

0.5%

102.6%

19.4%

19.1%

0.0%

-0.3%

51.1%

17.3%

1.9%

110.7%

Major Exporters

20.2%

18.5%

1.7%

109.4%

21.5%

19.1%

1.1%

-1.3%

47.0%

15.8%

4.4%

127.9%

Argentina

18.2%

18.2%

0.0%

100.0%

16.2%

13.9%

4.3%

2.0%

56.7%

5.0%

13.2%

365.8%

Brazil

20.6%

18.0%

2.6%

114.5%

23.1%

19.8%

0.8%

-2.5%

45.1%

18.3%

2.3%

112.7%

South Africa

22.2%

22.2%

0.0%

100.0%

21.3%

23.6%

-1.4%

0.9%

56.7%

23.5%

-1.3%

94.4%

Major Importers

8.8%

8.8%

0.0%

99.5%

8.7%

8.6%

0.1%

0.1%

58.1%

7.3%

1.5%

120.0%

Egypt
European Union
- 28 Countries

18.0%

18.0%

0.0%

100.0%

18.0%

14.7%

3.4%

0.0%

50.5%

11.7%

6.3%

154.0%

53.5%

7.1%

0.7%

109.8%

3.6%

-0.3%

92.4%

3.9%

4.0%

203.8%

7.8%

7.5%

0.3%

103.4%

7.6%

7.9%

-0.2%

0.2%

Japan

3.3%

3.3%

0.0%

100.0%

3.4%

3.4%

0.0%

0.0%

Mexico

7.8%

7.8%

0.0%

100.0%

7.7%

7.7%

0.2%

0.2%

Southeast Asia

10.3%

10.8%

-0.4%

95.9%

9.6%

10.1%

0.3%

0.7%

South Korea

11.3%

12.7%

-1.4%

89.0%

14.5%

12.9%

-1.6%

-3.2%

Canada

10.2%

15.0%

-4.7%

68.3%

17.9%

20.5%

-10.3%

-7.7%

China
Former Soviet Union
- 12 Countries

36.2%

35.2%

1.0%

102.9%

36.5%

36.6%

-0.5%

9.1%

9.1%

0.0%

100.1%

7.3%

9.5%

8.9%

8.9%

0.0%

100.0%

7.5%

10.8%

Ukraine

#DIV/0!
52.0%
79.2%

8.5%

1.8%

121.0%

14.9%

-3.5%

76.1%

33.1%

11.6%

-1.4%

88.2%

-0.3%

50.7%

32.8%

3.4%

110.4%

-0.4%

1.8%

61.5%

6.2%

2.9%

147.3%

-2.0%

1.4%

56.1%

5.7%

3.2%

155.5%

#DIV/0!

Page|26