Krause-Satawa 1

Ann Krause Teresa Satawa

Mrs. Dewey
FST 10B
24, March 2014
The Satawa-Krause Casino

I. Description, Rules, and Directions:

Welcome to the Satawa-Krause Casino. This game costs 2 yellow chips to play.
Each yellow chip has a value of one dollar. Therefore, the game costs two dollars to
play. The game consists of a box with 20 casino chips inside, as well as a wheel divided
into six equal parts (Two win spaces colored red and marked with a W, four lose spaces
colored in green and marked with an L). Landing on a win space results in a win of $5,
and landing on a lose space wins nothing.
Step 1: Draw a chip from the box (see figure 1). Step 2: If the chip you have
drawn is blue, then spin the wheel (see figure 2), and if you lose you may have one
more chance to spin the wheel and win. If you win on the first spin, you may not spin the
wheel again. If the chip you draw from the box is white, you may spin the wheel one
time. The red chips are bankrupt chips. If you draw a bankrupt chip, you may not spin
the wheel, and you automatically lose. When spinning the wheel, the wheel must go all
the way around at least one time. Spinning the wheel clockwise is recommended.

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Figure 1: Box with chips.

Figure 2: Wheel

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II. Theoretical Probability I:

The sample space for the game is as follows:
Sample Space:
win
{1W, 1L, 2W, 2LW, 2LL, B}
0.333

Integers indicate the number of spins,

win, L is lose, and B is bankrupt (also a lose).
0.666 W islose
1

P (1 W ) =0.500.3333=0.16665
0.50

win

0.333

win

P (1 L )=0.500.6667=0.33335
2
0.25
spins

0.666

0.25

P (2 W ) =0.250.3333=0.083325

0.333
lose

Bankrupt:
no spin

P (2 LW )=0.250.66670.3333=0.05555278
2

P
P ( B ) =0.25
P ( winning )=P ( 1W )+ P ( 2 W ) + P ( 2 LW )
0.16665+0.083325+0.05555278
0.3055

P(losing)=P ( 1 L ) + P
0.33335+0.11112222+0.25

0.6945

0.666

lose

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III. Theoretical Probability II:

The game costs $2.00 to play,
Expected value:
$
P($)

1W
$3
0.16665

1L
-$2
0.33335

2W
$3
0.0833250
0

2LW
$3
0.0555278
0

2LL
-$2
0.11112222

B
-$2
0.2500000
0

0.
EV =3 ( 0.16665 )2 ( 0.33335 ) +3 083325)+3(0555278)-2(0.11112222)-2(0.25)
$ 0.47

The expected value a user of this game can expect to win is -$0.47. This means that
over a series of trials, the user can expect to lose 47 cents.

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IV. Relative Frequencies.

The first simulation was done by playing the physical game 50 times. When
picking chips, the frequency of picking a white chip was 26 out of 50(see table 1). This
is a relative frequency of 52% (see table 1). This is only two percent different than the
expected frequency of 50%. The relative frequency of picking a blue chip is 11 out of 50,
or 22% (see table 1). The relative frequency of pulling a red chip is 13 out of 50, or 26%
(see table 1). The expected frequency of pulling a blue chip, or a red chip, is 25%. The
difference in the relative frequency and the expected frequency of pulling a blue chip is
3%. The same difference is true for the expected frequency and relative frequencies of
pulling a red chip.
After the player pulls a chip from the box, depending on what chip he or she
pulls, that person would spin the wheel. The expected frequency for winning on the first
spin is 2 out of 6, or 33% (see table 1). The relative frequency for winning on the first
spin is 15 out of 50, or 30% (see table 1). The difference in expected and relative
frequency is only 3%. The expected frequency for winning on the second spin is still
3%, since all spins are independent of each other. The relative frequency of winning on
the second spin is 1 out of 8, or 13% , since there are 8 that lost on their first spin, and
pulled a blue chip (see table 1). The overall relative frequency of winning is 16 out of 50,

Krause-Satawa 6
or 32% (see table 1). This is very accurate since it is only one percent different than the
expected frequency.
The second simulation that was used was by using the random integer function
on the TI-nspire. The equation that was plugged into the calculator was
randInt(1,10000,500). This equation was chosen because the calculator could not print
random numbers in decimal form. Therefore all of the numbers had to be multiplied by
10000. Since the probability of winning was 0.3055, that number was multiplied to get
3055.0. Then the range of random numbers that would be printed is from 1 to 10,000,
hence the (1, 10000). And any numbers that were 3055 or less would represent
winning. And since there needed to be 500 trials the (, 500) was added to the calculator
input. The total number of outputs that was less than 3055 was 146 out of the total 500
outputs. This is a relative frequency of about 29.2% wins. This is close to the estimated
frequency of 33% wins.
The third simulator was a Java program. The setup of the program was mostly if
statements. The program was made so that it would print out random numbers from 1 to
20 to represent pulling a chip from the box. This variable was called pull. And the
program was also set up to print a random number between 1 and 3; this represents the
1 out of three chance of winning on the spinner. This number was called spin. See
Appendix A for more detail on the set up of the program. When the program was
executed, one of the outcomes was a total of 1285 wins 3716 losses. This is a relative
frequency of 25.7% wins.

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All of the three simulations were accurate; this is known because all three were
relatively close to the estimated frequency of 33% wins. Even though the first simulation
was the closest to the estimated value of 33%, the third simulation with 5,000 trials was
the most accurate. This is assuming that the wheel is perfectly random, and no one
cheats while drawing a chip from the box. According to the Law of Large Numbers, as a
sample size grows, its mean will get closer and closer to the average of the whole
population, or the estimated value. And the third simulation had the largest number of
trials; therefore it was the most accurate.

Krause-Satawa 8

Table 1: Results of 50 trials of playing

the game.
Chip
Pull

Trial
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27

1
2
1
B
B
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
B
1
2
1
1
1
B
1
1
1
B
2
2
1
1

Spin
l
w
w
l
l
w
w
l
w
w
w
w
l
w
ll
l
l
l
l
w
l
w
l
ll
ll
l
l

Win or
lose?
lose
win
win
lose
lose
win
win
lose
win
win
win
win
lose
win
lose
lose
lose
lose
lose
win
lose
win
lose
lose
lose
lose
lose

28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50

B
1
2
1
1
1
B
B
B
1
1
B
1
1
2
B
1
B
2
B
2
2
2

l
l
ll
l
w
l
l
l
l
l
w
l
l
w
w
l
l
l
ll
l
lw
ll
ll

lose
lose
lose
lose
win
lose
lose
lose
lose
lose
win
lose
lose
win
win
lose
lose
lose
lose
lose
win
lose
lose

Appendix A
Java program

The program was also set up to print out 5000 trials.

j=0 ; j5000 ; j ++
for
The values that represent pulling from the box were represented as any number from 1
to 20, since there are 20 chips in the box. And variable was called pull.

( 20Math . random( )+1);

pull=
The values that represented spinning the wheel were represented as any number
between 1 and 3, since there is a 1 in three chance of winning on a spin.

( 3Math .random( )+1);

spin=
The program was set up with multiple if statements. To represent pulling any of the
bankrupt cards, an if statement saying that if pull is greater or equal to one and less
than or equal to five.

if ( pull1 pull5)
If the program finds that the pull value is between 1 and 5, then the program will print
out the value of the line that the trial is on, the number that represents the pull, and it will
tell the user that there is no spin since it is a bankrupt and they lost,
System .out . println(count+ \t + pull+ \tNo spin Lose);

The complete program is shown below.

//Ann Krause, Teresa Satawa. March 24, 2014. Carnival project
import TerminalIO.KeyboardReader;
import java.text.DecimalFormat;
class krauseSatawa { // this name should match the file name
public static void main(String args[]) {
KeyboardReader reader = new KeyboardReader();
DecimalFormat twoDec = new DecimalFormat ("0.00");
int space = 0, spin, pull, total, count = 1, loss = 0, wins = 0, j;
boolean win = false;
pull = (int)(20*Math.random()+1);//makes this number random
spin = (int)(3*Math.random()+1); //makes this number random
System.out.println("Pull\tSpin\tWin/lose");
for (j = 0; j <= 5000; j++){//runs it 5000 times
spin = (int)(3*Math.random()+1); //makes this random in the loop
pull = (int)(20*Math.random()+1);//makes this random in the loop
count = count + 1;
if(pull >= 1 && pull <=5) {
loss = loss + 1;
System.out.println(count + "\t" + pull + "\tNo spin Lose");
}
if(pull >=6 && pull <= 15 && spin == 1){
wins = wins + 1;
System.out.println(count + "\t" + pull + "\t" + spin +"\tWin");
}
if (pull >=6 && pull <= 15 && spin == 2){
loss = loss + 1;
System.out.println(count + "\t" + pull + "\t" + spin +"\tLose");
}
if (pull >=6 && pull <= 15 && spin==3){
loss = loss + 1;
System.out.println(count + "\t" + pull + "\t" + spin +"\tLose");
}
if (pull >=16 && pull <= 20 && spin == 1){

wins = wins + 1;
System.out.println(count + "\t" + pull + "\t" + spin +"\tWin");
}
if (pull >=16 && pull <= 20 && spin == 2){
loss = loss + 1;
System.out.println(count + "\t" + pull + "\t" + spin +"\tLose");
}
if (pull >=16 && pull <= 20 && spin==3){
loss = loss + 1;
System.out.println(count + "\t" + pull + "\t" + spin +"\tLose");
}}
total = loss + wins;
System.out.println("Total\tLosses\tWins");
System.out.println(total + "\t" + loss + "\t" + wins);
}}