STUDENTLIFE

PREDICTIVE MODELING
Hongyu Chen
Jing Li
Mubing Li
CS69/169 Mobile Health
March 2015

Motivation
Lets go further than StudentLife 1.0!
Standardized, normalized data set
Proof of concept
Scientific finding to our question:
Can we predict depression from a two week window
of StudentLife data collection?

Study Design
Data cleaning/parsing
Feature selection
Class determination
Predictive classifiers through supervised machine learning methods
Validation
Case study

Depressed
whole time

Project Design/Workflow
StudentLife
Dataset

Data
Preprocessing
& Interpolation:
Linear
Nearest
Neighbour
Concatenation
PCA

Nondepressed
whole time

PHQ9
Threshold

EMA:
Sleep
Mood
Stress
Social
Exercise,
etc.
Feature
Selection

Depresstion
status
changed

Case
Study

Sensor:
Audio
Conversation
Activity
Dark,
etc.

Feature

Class

Data
separation
by week

SVM,
etc.

Prediction

N-fold CV

Accruacy
F statistics
Precision/
Recall
Sensitivity/Sp
ecificity

Result
analysis

Class Determination via Thresholding

Why?
Keeps it a classification problem, not a regression problem
Depression presents in many different ways
Small sample size

Class Determination via Thresholding

PHQ-9 scores of students before and after StudentLife

Class Determination via Thresholding

Threshold determined by visual inspection on strip plot

Class Determination via Thresholding

Consistent with medical literature?
PHQ-9 score

Diagnosis

0-4

No Depression

5-9

Mild Depression

10-14

Moderate Depression

15-19

Moderately Severe
Depression

20-27

Severe Depression

Do you at least moderate depression?

Linear Interpolation for EMA Data

EMA data is very

sparse
Interpolation
increases
number of points

Nearest-Neighbor Interpolation
for Sensor Data

Sensor data is too dense

Interpolation decreases number of points

Standardized Data Set?

In the first iteration of StudentLife:
Every data collection modality had
Different scaling
Different periodicity
Different quality

Now:
All 15 depression-related modalities have
One value per 24-hour period
Comparable scaling
A guarantee of good quality (279 samples removed)

Feature Selection
Step 1:
Decide sliding window time frame
Two weeks
Balance of enough time to make diagnosis, but short enough to have enough
time points for testing

Step 2:
Feature aggregation
Step 3:
Dimensionality Reduction
We cannot use 105 dimensions to classify only a couple hundred

cases!

PC1

PC2

PC3

PC4

PC5

PC6

PC7

PC8

Principle Components

PC9

PC10

0.5
0.4
0.3
0.0

0.1

0.2

Proportion of Variance

0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00

Proportion of Variance

0.6

0.20

0.7

Principle Component Analysis (PCA)

PC1

PC2

PC3

PC4

PC5

PC6

PC7

PC8

Principle Components

PC9

PC10

Top Features from PCA

Random Forest

0.06
0.02

0.04

Random Forest

0.00

Testing errors from 10-fold CV

0.08

0.10

Decision Trees

10

15

20

Numbers of features

25

30

Predictive classifier
Classes: (not depressed, depressed)
-1
+1
Features: top features by PCA
Training set
All depressed
Samples(50%)

Selected not
depressed
Samples(50%)

SVM model

Cross Validation
Accuracy = 96.6667%

Case study
Participant No.16:
Beginning of the term:
End of the term:

Not depressed (-1)

Depressed (+1)

Depressed

Not depressed

Future Directions
Why is this important?
1. Contributes (marginally) to existing medical literature about
depression
2. Proof of concept for possible interventions
Imagine app that tells you when you could be depressed
Connects you with resources to help
3.

Standardized data set available

Opens door to future analyses
Not only on depression

Small taste of the beginnings of

StudentLife2.0?