DESCARGAS MAXIMAS EXTREMAS (m3/s)

AO
1926
1927
1928
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975

PUENTE SANCHEZ CERRO

1600
1200
720
669
580.1
572.1
502.1
500
483.6
427.5
360.5
350.1
349.1
331
325.1
320.1
303.8
293.7
273.2
266.2
264.4
251.5
250.2
221.2
205.2
197.3
188.1
187.2
183.1
180.1
175
170.8
169.5
160.3
159.9
146.3
146.1
146
145.3
137.8
132.9
128.5
119.3
118.5
100.2
96.9
90.3
53.1
45.5
44.3

PU
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0

PUENTE SANCHEZ CERRO

Herramientas / Anlisis de Datos / Estadstica Desciptiva

PUENTE SANCHEZ CERRO
Media
Mediana
Moda
Desviacin estndar
Varianza
Curtosis
Coeficiente de asimetra
Rango
Mnimo
Mximo
Suma
Cuenta

300.8
201.25
883.4
780454
4.60
2.06
4424
44.3
1600
49299.5
74

DESCARGAS MAXIMAS EXTREMAS (m3/s)

AO
1926
1927
1928
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973

Q
1600.0
1200.0
720.0
669.0
580.1
572.1
502.1
500.0
483.6
427.5
360.5
350.1
349.1
331.0
325.1
320.1
303.8
293.7
273.2
266.2
264.4
251.5
250.2
221.2
205.2
197.3
188.1
187.2
183.1
180.1
175.0
170.8
169.5
160.3
159.9
146.3
146.1
146.0
145.3
137.8
132.9
128.5
119.3
118.5
100.2
96.9
90.3
53.1

Q ORDENADOS
1600.00
1200.00
720.00
669.00
580.10
572.10
502.10
500.00
483.60
427.50
360.50
350.10
349.10
331.00
325.10
320.10
303.80
293.70
273.20
266.20
264.40
251.50
250.20
221.20
205.20
197.30
188.10
187.20
183.10
180.10
175.00
170.80
169.50
160.30
159.90
146.30
146.10
146.00
145.30
137.80
132.90
128.50
119.30
118.50
100.20
96.90
90.30
53.10

F(x)
1.0000
0.9993
0.9328
0.9057
0.8407
0.8336
0.7638
0.7615
0.7430
0.6745
0.5844
0.5698
0.5684
0.5429
0.5345
0.5274
0.5042
0.4898
0.4607
0.4508
0.4482
0.4301
0.4282
0.3881
0.3664
0.3558
0.3436
0.3424
0.3371
0.3332
0.3266
0.3212
0.3195
0.3079
0.3074
0.2905
0.2903
0.2902
0.2893
0.2802
0.2743
0.2691
0.2584
0.2575
0.2368
0.2332
0.2261
0.1882

f(x)
0.000000
0.000008
0.000465
0.000600
0.000866
0.000891
0.001100
0.001106
0.001151
0.001286
0.001393
0.001403
0.001404
0.001416
0.001419
0.001421
0.001425
0.001424
0.001418
0.001414
0.001413
0.001403
0.001402
0.001368
0.001344
0.001331
0.001314
0.001312
0.001304
0.001298
0.001288
0.001279
0.001276
0.001256
0.001255
0.001223
0.001223
0.001223
0.001221
0.001203
0.001190
0.001179
0.001155
0.001152
0.001102
0.001093
0.001074
0.000963

hist
0.001600

0.001400

0.001200

0.001000

0.000800

0.000600

0.000400

0.000200

0.00

200.00

400.00

600.00

1974
1975

45.5
44.3

45.50
44.30

0.1809
0.1798

0.000940
0.000936

0.00

MEDIA
DESV.EST.

300.84
280.03

histograma

200.00

400.00

600.00

800.00 1000.00 1200.00 1400.00 1600.00 1800.00

ANALISIS CON DISTRIBUCION LOG - NORMAL DE 2 PARAMETROS

AO

Q ORDENADOS

y = ln (x)

F(x)

f(x)

7.3778
7.0901
6.5793
6.5058
6.3632

0.9958
0.9877
0.9406
0.9280
0.8978

0.0167
0.0429
0.1590
0.1846
0.2399

572.1

1600.00
1200.00
720.00
669.00
580.10
572.10

6.3493

0.8945

0.2457

1932

502.1

502.10

6.2188

0.8588

0.3013

1933

500.0

500.00

6.2146

0.8575

0.3032

1934

483.6

483.60

6.1813

0.8472

0.3177

1935

427.5

427.50

6.0580

0.8047

0.3715

1936

360.5

360.50

5.8875

0.7353

0.4406

1937

350.1

350.10

5.8582

0.7223

0.4513

1938

349.1

349.10

5.8554

0.7210

0.4524

1939

331.0

331.00

5.8021

0.6964

0.4705

1940

325.1

325.10

5.7841

0.6879

0.4763

1941

320.1

320.10

5.7686

0.6805

0.4811

1942

303.8

303.80

5.7164

0.6549

0.4960

1943

293.7

293.70

5.6826

0.6380

0.5046

1944

273.2

273.20

5.6102

0.6009

0.5197

1945

266.2

266.20

5.5842

0.5874

0.5241

1946

264.4

264.40

5.5775

0.5838

0.5251

1947

251.5

251.50

5.5274

0.5574

0.5315

1948

250.2

250.20

5.5223

0.5546

0.5320

1949

221.2

221.20

5.3991

0.4887

0.5368

1950

205.2

205.20

5.3240

0.4485

0.5325

1951

197.3

197.30

5.2847

0.4277

0.5282

1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971

188.1
187.2
183.1
180.1
175.0
170.8
169.5
160.3
159.9
146.3
146.1
146.0
145.3
137.8
132.9
128.5
119.3
118.5
100.2
96.9

188.10
187.20
183.10
180.10
175.00
170.80
169.50
160.30
159.90
146.30
146.10
146.00
145.30
137.80
132.90
128.50
119.30
118.50
100.20
96.90

5.2370
5.2322
5.2100
5.1935
5.1648
5.1405
5.1329
5.0770
5.0745
4.9857
4.9843
4.9836
4.9788
4.9258
4.8896
4.8559
4.7816
4.7749
4.6072
4.5737

0.4026
0.4001
0.3886
0.3801
0.3655
0.3533
0.3495
0.3221
0.3209
0.2793
0.2787
0.2784
0.2762
0.2529
0.2375
0.2238
0.1950
0.1925
0.1369
0.1272

0.5209
0.5201
0.5160
0.5126
0.5062
0.5003
0.4983
0.4827
0.4819
0.4526
0.4521
0.4518
0.4501
0.4303
0.4161
0.4024
0.3712
0.3683
0.2951
0.2806

1926
1927
1928
1929
1930

1600.0
1200.0
720.0
669.0
580.1

1931

1972
1973
1974
1975

90.3
53.1
45.5
44.3

90.30
53.10
45.50
44.30

4.5031
3.9722
3.8177
3.7910

0.1085
0.0256
0.0155
0.0141

0.2507
0.0803
0.0524
0.0485

MEDIA
DESV.EST.
histograma de los x
0.6000
0.5000

Si quiero conocer el caudal p

0.4000

sabiendo que Tr = 1 / P exc

--> Pexc = 1 / 100 =
--> Pno exc = 1-P exc =

0.3000
0.2000

z = f ( Pno exc)

0.1000

z=

0.00

500.00

1000.00

1500.00

2000.00

x (Caudales)

y=
y=
y=

histograma de los y
0.6000

y=

0.5000

x=

0.4000

x=

0.3000
0.2000
0.1000
3.0000

4.0000

5.0000

6.0000

y = ln x

7.0000

8.0000

300.84
280.03

MEDIA
DESV.EST.
C.ASIMETRIA

ero conocer el caudal para Tr = 100 aos,

do que Tr = 1 / P exc

xc = 1 / 100 =
o exc = 1-P exc =

0.01
0.99

=DISTR.NORM.ESTAND.INV(0,99)
2.32634787
+z
5,435 + 2,326 * 1,805
7.1484
ln (x)
e (y)
1272.1

5.4202
0.7429
0.2041

ANALISIS CON DISTRIBUCION LOG - NORMAL DE 3 PARAMETROS

AO

Q ORDENADOS

y = ln (x-a)

F(x)

f(x)

1926

1600.0

1600.00

7.39330

0.99740

0.01219

1927

1200.0

1200.00

7.11075

0.99101

0.03683

1928
1929
1930
1931

720.0
669.0
580.1
572.1

6.61348
6.54257
6.40551
6.39220

0.94651
0.93377
0.90262
0.89910

0.16497
0.19506
0.26096
0.26782

1932

502.1

720.00
669.00
580.10
572.10
502.10

6.26752

0.86158

0.33487

0.4000

1933

500.0

500.00

6.26353

0.86024

0.33707

0.3000

1934

483.6

483.60

6.23180

0.84926

0.35466

1935

427.5

427.50

6.11494

0.80403

0.41928

0.2000

1936

360.5

360.50

5.95472

0.73012

0.50120

0.1000

1937

350.1

350.10

5.92737

0.71624

0.51366

1938

349.1

349.10

5.92470

0.71487

0.51485

1939

331.0

331.00

5.87512

0.68882

0.53578

1940

325.1

325.10

5.85841

0.67981

0.54233

1941

320.1

320.10

5.84403

0.67197

0.54775

1942

303.8

303.80

5.79566

0.64506

0.56442

1943

293.7

293.70

5.76446

0.62730

0.57379

1944

273.2

273.20

5.69799

0.58860

0.58988

0.70000

1945

266.2

266.20

5.67424

0.57454

0.59427

0.60000

1946

264.4

264.40

5.66804

0.57085

0.59529

1947

251.5

251.50

5.62246

0.54356

0.60125

1948

250.2

250.20

5.61775

0.54073

0.60170

0.40000

1949

221.2

221.20

5.50642

0.47349

0.60352

0.30000

1950

205.2

205.20

5.43924

0.43315

0.59635

1951

197.3

197.30

5.40433

0.41243

0.59023

1952

188.1

188.10

5.36208

0.38769

0.58073

1953
1954

187.2
183.1

5.35785
5.33835

0.38523
0.37398

0.57965
0.57442

1955
1956

180.1
175.0

5.32383
5.29866

0.36567
0.35141

0.57024
0.56240

1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966

170.8
169.5
160.3
159.9
146.3
146.1
146.0
145.3
137.8
132.9

187.20
183.10
180.10
175.00
170.80
169.50
160.30
159.90
146.30
146.10
146.00
145.30
137.80
132.90

5.27744
5.27078
5.22234
5.22018
5.14381
5.14265
5.14206
5.13796
5.09294
5.06239

0.33955
0.33587
0.30952
0.30836
0.26886
0.26827
0.26798
0.26594
0.24403
0.22973

0.55526
0.55291
0.53453
0.53365
0.50024
0.49970
0.49942
0.49750
0.47560
0.46008

0.6000
0.5000

3.0000 3.50

0.50000

0.20000
0.10000
3.00000

1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975

128.5
119.3
118.5
100.2
96.9
90.3
53.1
45.5
44.3

128.50
119.30
118.50
100.20
96.90
90.30
53.10
45.50
44.30

5.03414
4.97237
4.96681
4.83046
4.80376
4.74813
4.35886
4.25658
4.23943

0.21694
0.19046
0.18817
0.13755
0.12885
0.11195
0.03543
0.02491
0.02344

0.44532
0.41204
0.40899
0.33343
0.31876
0.28871
0.11833
0.08835
0.08393

LN2; C.A.=-0,8
0.6000
0.5000

Si quiero conocer el

0.4000
0.3000

sabiendo que Tr = 1

0.2000

--> Pexc = 1 / 100 =

--> Pno exc = 1-P ex

0.1000
3.0000 3.5000 4.0000 4.5000 5.0000 5.5000 6.0000 6.5000 7.0000 7.5000 8.0000

z = f ( Pe
z=

LN3; C.A.=0

y=

0.70000

y=

0.60000
0.50000

y=

0.40000

y=

0.30000
0.20000

x-a=

0.10000
3.00000

x-a=
4.00000

5.00000

6.00000

7.00000

8.00000

x=
x=

MEDIA
DESV.EST.
MEDIA
DESV.EST.
C.ASIMETRIA

300.84
280.03
5.4202
0.7429
0.2041

Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr = 100 aos,

sabiendo que Tr = 1 / P exc
--> Pexc = 1 / 100 = 0.01
--> Pno exc = 1-P ex 0.99
=DISTR.NORM.ESTAND.INV(0,99)
2.32634787
+z
5,731 + 2,326 * 1,367
7.0847
ln (x - a)
e (y)
1193.51896
7413,477 - 25,068
1168.5

MEDIA
DESV.EST.
a
C.ASIMETRIA

5.5503
0.6596
(25.0680)
4.73E-01

ANALISIS CON DISTRIBUCION GUMBEL

AO
1926
1927
1928
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972

Q
1600.0
1200.0
720.0
669.0
580.1
572.1
502.1
500.0
483.6
427.5
360.5
350.1
349.1
331.0
325.1
320.1
303.8
293.7
273.2
266.2
264.4
251.5
250.2
221.2
205.2
197.3
188.1
187.2
183.1
180.1
175.0
170.8
169.5
160.3
159.9
146.3
146.1
146.0
145.3
137.8
132.9
128.5
119.3
118.5
100.2
96.9
90.3

Q ORDENADOS
1600.00
1200.00
720.00
669.00
580.10
572.10
502.10
500.00
483.60
427.50
360.50
350.10
349.10
331.00
325.10
320.10
303.80
293.70
273.20
266.20
264.40
251.50
250.20
221.20
205.20
197.30
188.10
187.20
183.10
180.10
175.00
170.80
169.50
160.30
159.90
146.30
146.10
146.00
145.30
137.80
132.90
128.50
119.30
118.50
100.20
96.90
90.30

Var. Reducida
y = (x - u)/a
5.93
4.28
2.29
2.07
1.71
1.67
1.38
1.37
1.31
1.07
0.80
0.75
0.75
0.67
0.65
0.63
0.56
0.52
0.43
0.40
0.40
0.34
0.34
0.22
0.15
0.12
0.08
0.08
0.06
0.05
0.03
0.01
0.00
(0.03)
(0.04)
(0.09)
(0.09)
(0.09)
(0.10)
(0.13)
(0.15)
(0.17)
(0.20)
(0.21)
(0.28)
(0.30)
(0.32)

Tr
377.95
72.41
10.34
8.47
6.02
5.84
4.51
4.47
4.21
3.45
2.75
2.66
2.65
2.50
2.46
2.42
2.30
2.23
2.10
2.05
2.04
1.97
1.96
1.81
1.73
1.70
1.66
1.66
1.64
1.63
1.61
1.59
1.59
1.55
1.55
1.50
1.50
1.50
1.50
1.47
1.46
1.44
1.42
1.41
1.36
1.35
1.33

1973
1974
1975

53.1
45.5
44.3

53.10
45.50
44.30

(0.48)
(0.51)
(0.51)

1.25
1.23
1.23

0.5485
1.1607

179.0000
13.3000

x medio
desv. Est x (Sx)

300.84
280.03

n = nmero de datos
yn medio =
Sn =

50
0.5485
1.1607

32
0.538
1.1193

parmetros, segn n
a = Sx / Sn =
u = x-yn*a=

241.26
168.51

11.88
172.61

Q (m3/s))

1800.00
1600.00
1400.00

f(x) = 275.1005433344 ln(x) + 49.4485064334

R = 0.9883428078

1200.00
1000.00
800.00
600.00
400.00
200.00
0.00
1.00

10.00

100.00
Tr (AOS)

1,000.00

P exc = F (x > X)

F (x X ) 1 e

e y

1
Tr

y=

xu
a

Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr = 100 aos,

sabiendo que:
0.02

1 - e(-e(-y))=

0.02

e(-e(-y))=

0.98

-e(-y)= -0.0202027
e(-y)= 0.0202027
-y = -3.9019387
y = 3.9019387
y=

x-u
a

x=

u + a.y

x=

1109.9

219.0

1,000.00

VALORES GUMBEL
Media reducida Yn

n
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100

0
0.4952
0.5230
0.5362
0.5436
0.5485
0.5521
0.5548
0.5569
0.5586
0.5600

1
0.4996
0.5252
0.5371
0.5442
0.5489
0.5524
0.5550
0.5570
0.5587

2
0.5035
0.5268
0.5380
0.5448
0.5493
0.5527
0.5552
0.5572
0.5589

3
0.5070
0.5283
0.5388
0.5453
0.5497
0.5530
0.5555
0.5574
0.5591

4
0.5100
0.5296
0.5396
0.5458
0.5501
0.5533
0.5557
0.5576
0.5592

5
0.5128
0.5309
0.5402
0.5463
0.5504
0.5535
0.5559
0.5578
0.5593

6
0.5157
0.5320
0.5410
0.5468
0.5508
0.5538
0.5561
0.5580
0.5595

7
0.5181
0.5332
0.5418
0.5473
0.5511
0.5540
0.5563
0.5581
0.5596

8
0.5202
0.5343
0.5424
0.5477
0.5515
0.5543
0.5565
0.5583
0.5598

9
0.5220
0.5353
0.5430
0.5481
0.5518
0.5545
0.5567
0.5585
0.5599

3
0.9971
1.0811
1.2260
1.1480
1.1658
1.1782
1.1881
1.1959
1.2026

4
1.0095
1.0864
1.1255
1.1499
1.1667
1.1793
1.1890
1.1967
1.2032

5
1.0206
1.0915
1.1285
1.1519
1.1681
1.1803
1.1898
1.1973
1.2038

6
1.0316
1.0961
1.1313
1.1538
1.1696
1.1814
1.1906
1.1980
1.2044

7
1.0411
1.1004
1.1339
1.1557
1.1708
1.1824
1.1915
1.1987
1.2049

8
1.0493
1.1047
1.1363
1.1574
1.1721
1.1834
1.1923
1.1994
1.2055

9
1.0565
1.1086
1.3880
1.1590
1.1734
1.1844
1.1930
1.2001
1.2060

Desviacin tipica reducida Sn

n
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100

0
0.9496
1.0628
1.1124
1.1413
1.1607
1.1747
1.1854
1.1938
1.2007
1.2065

1
0.9676
1.0696
1.1159
1.1430
1.1623
1.1759
1.1863
1.1945
1.2013

2
0.9833
1.0754
1.1193
1.1458
1.1638
1.1770
1.1873
1.1953
1.2020

ANALISIS CON DISTRIBUCION GAMMA DE 2 PARAMETROS

AO
1926
1927
1928
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938

SANCHEZ CERRO
1600.0
1200.0
720.0
669.0
580.1
572.1
502.1
500.0
483.6
427.5
360.5
350.1
349.1

1939

331.0

1940
1941
1942

325.1
320.1
303.8

1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949

293.7
273.2
266.2
264.4
251.5
250.2
221.2

1950
1951

205.2
197.3

1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971

188.1
187.2
183.1
180.1
175.0
170.8
169.5
160.3
159.9
146.3
146.1
146.0
145.3
137.8
132.9
128.5
119.3
118.5
100.2
96.9

DATOS ORDENADOS
1600.00
1200.00
720.00
669.00
580.10
572.10
502.10
500.00
483.60
427.50
360.50
350.10
349.10
331.00

f(x)
1.176E-05
5.218E-05
3.041E-04
3.657E-04
5.031E-04
5.177E-04
6.637E-04
6.687E-04
7.084E-04
8.620E-04
1.086E-03
1.125E-03
1.129E-03

F(x)
9.969E-01
9.860E-01
9.172E-01
9.001E-01
8.618E-01
8.578E-01
8.166E-01
8.152E-01
8.039E-01
7.600E-01
6.950E-01
6.835E-01
6.824E-01

1.200E-03

6.613E-01

325.10
320.10
303.80
293.70

1.224E-03
1.245E-03
1.314E-03

6.542E-01
6.480E-01
6.271E-01

1.359E-03
1.454E-03
1.488E-03
1.497E-03
1.560E-03
1.567E-03
1.718E-03

6.136E-01
5.848E-01
5.745E-01
5.718E-01
5.521E-01
5.501E-01
5.025E-01

1.806E-03
1.850E-03

4.743E-01
4.598E-01

1.903E-03
1.908E-03
1.932E-03
1.949E-03
1.979E-03
2.003E-03
2.011E-03
2.066E-03
2.068E-03
2.149E-03
2.150E-03
2.151E-03
2.155E-03
2.200E-03
2.229E-03
2.255E-03
2.310E-03
2.314E-03
2.419E-03
2.438E-03

4.426E-01
4.409E-01
4.330E-01
4.272E-01
4.172E-01
4.088E-01
4.062E-01
3.874E-01
3.866E-01
3.579E-01
3.575E-01
3.573E-01
3.558E-01
3.394E-01
3.286E-01
3.187E-01
2.977E-01
2.959E-01
2.526E-01
2.445E-01

273.20
266.20
264.40
251.50
250.20
221.20
205.20
197.30
188.10
187.20
183.10
180.10
175.00
170.80
169.50
160.30
159.90
146.30
146.10
146.00
145.30
137.80
132.90
128.50
119.30
118.50
100.20
96.90

1972
1973
1974
1975

90.3
53.1
45.5
44.3

90.30
53.10
45.50
44.30

2.473E-03
2.628E-03
2.642E-03
2.644E-03

2.283E-01
1.331E-01
1.131E-01
1.099E-01

f(x)
3.000E-03

Parmetros:
Forma: x> 0
Escala: x > 0

2.500E-03
2.000E-03
1.500E-03
1.000E-03

x (media)
s2 (varianza)

5.000E-04

300.8
78416.2

0.000E+00
0.00

1.154
260.66

200.00

400.00

600.00

800.0

Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr = 100 aos,

sabiendo que Tr = 1 / Pno exc
--> P exc = 1 / 100 =
--> Pno exc = 1-P exc =

0.01
0.99

x = f ( Pno exc) =DISTR.GAMMA.INV(P;)

x = 1290.05917

1.200E+00

1.000E+00

8.000E-01

6.000E-01

4.000E-01

2.000E-01

0.000E+00
0.00

200.00

400.00

f(x)

E-03

E-03

E-03

E-03

E-03

E-04

+00
0.00

200.00

400.00

600.00

800.00

1000.00

1200.00

1400.00

1600.00

1800.00

1200.00

1400.00

F(x)

1.200E+00

1.000E+00

8.000E-01

6.000E-01

4.000E-01

2.000E-01

0.000E+00
0.00

200.00

400.00

600.00

800.00

1000.00

1600.00

1800.00

Valores de "K", para la distribucin Pearson tipo III

Coeficiente
de asimetra
g
3
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-1
-1.2
-1.4
-1.6
-1.8
-2
-2.2
-2.4
-2.6
-2.8
-3

99
1.0101
-0.667
-0.714
-0.769
-0.832
-0.905
-0.99
-1.087
-1.197
-1.318
-1.449
-1.558
-1.733
-1.88
-2.029
-2.178
-2.326
-2.472
-2.615
-2.755
-2.891
-3.022
-3.149
-3.271
-3.388
-3.499
-3.605
-3.705
-3.8
-3.889
-3.973
-4.051

Nivel de probabilidad, porcentaje

80
50
20
10
4
Periodo de retorno en aos
1.25
2
5
10
25
-0.636 -0.396 0.42 1.18 2.278
-0.666 -0.384 0.46 1.21 2.275
-0.696 -0.368 0.499 1.238 2.267
-0.725 -0.351 0.537 1.262 2.256
-0.752 -0.33 0.574 1.284 2.24
-0.777 -0.307 0.609 1.302 2.219
-0.7999 -0.282 0.643 1.318 2.193
-0.8177 -0.254 0.675 1.329 2.163
-0.8332 -0.225 0.705 1.337 2.128
-0.844 -0.195 0.732 1.34 2.087
-0.852 -0.164 0.758 1.34 2.043
-0.856 -0.132 0.78 1.336 1.993
-0.857 -0.099
0.8 1.328 1.939
-0.855 -0.066 0.816 1.317 1.88
-0.85 -0.033 0.83 1.301 1.818
-0.842
0 0.842 1.282 1.751
-0.83 0.033 0.85 1.258 1.68
-0.816 0.066 0.855 1.232 1.606
-0.8 0.099 0.857
1.2 1.528
-0.78 0.132 0.856 1.166 1.448
-0.758 0.164 0.852 1.128 1.366
-0.732 0.195 0.844 1.086 1.282
-0.705 0.225 0.832 1.041 1.198
-0.675 0.254 0.817 0.994 1.116
-0.643 0.282 0.799 0.945 1.035
-0.609 0.307 0.777 0.895 0.958
-0.574
0.33 0.752 0.844 0.888
-0.537 0.351 0.725 0.795 0.823
-0.499 0.368 0.696 0.747 0.764
-0.46 0.384 0.666 0.702 0.712
-0.42 0.396 0.636 0.66 0.666

50
3.152
3.114
3.071
3.023
2.97
2.912
2.848
2.78
2.706
2.626
2.542
2.453
2.359
2.261
2.159
2.054
1.945
1.834
1.72
1.606
1.492
1.379
1.27
1.166
1.069
0.98
0.9
0.83
0.768
0.714
0.666

100
4.051
3.973
3.889
3.8
3.705
3.605
3.499
3.388
3.271
3.149
3.022
2.891
2.755
2.615
2.472
2.326
2.178
2.029
1.88
1.733
1.588
1.449
1.318
1.197
1.087
0.99
0.905
0.832
0.769
0.714
0.667

-8

-6

f(x) =
R =

1.0101

K versus g para diferentes Tr

K(Tr) = f (g)
Coeficiente de asimetra, g
-6

-4

-2

4
f(x) = - 0.0190533736x^3 + 0.0033863384x^2 + 0.7315950048x + 2.3035830721
Tr = 100
R = 0.9997773985
3
f(x) = - 0.0139955002x^3 - 0.0169498622x^2 + 0.538798488x + 2.0338847204
R = 0.9996471006

coeficiente K

f(x) = - 0.0089576406x^3 - 0.0322070293x^2 + 0.3497118487x + 1.7353205582

2
R = 0.9993979366
f(x) = - 0.0026067691x^3 - 0.0412508532x^2 + 0.1113227648x + 1.27384144
1
R = 0.998537587
f(x) = 0.0013766782x^3 - 0.0354644365x^2 - 0.0476827658x + 0.8390991
R = 0.9992547489
f(x) = 0.0040778313x^3 - 8.6057325391559E-018x^2 - 0.1691693955x + 1.05222764652546E-017
0
R = 0.9999829299
f(x) = 0.0013992929x^3 + 0.0354719417x^2 - 0.047857402x - 0.8392134392
f(x) R
= =- 0.0192834086x^3
0.9992713572
- 0.0036470447x^2 + 0.7332205855x - 2.3017810699
-1
R = 0.9997466776

Tr = 1.01

-2

-3

-4
1.0101

Polynom ial (1.0101)

1.25

Polynom ial (1.25)

Probabilidad de excedencia F(x)

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50

DATOS Emprica
1600.0
0.020
1200.0
0.041
720.0
0.061
669.0
0.082
580.1
0.102
572.1
0.122
502.1
0.143
500.0
0.163
483.6
0.184
427.5
0.204
360.5
0.224
350.1
0.245
349.1
0.265
331.0
0.286
325.1
0.306
320.1
0.327
303.8
0.347
293.7
0.367
273.2
0.388
266.2
0.408
264.4
0.429
251.5
0.449
250.2
0.469
221.2
0.490
205.2
0.510
197.3
0.531
188.1
0.551
187.2
0.571
183.1
0.592
180.1
0.612
175.0
0.633
170.8
0.653
169.5
0.673
160.3
0.694
159.9
0.714
146.3
0.735
146.1
0.755
146.0
0.776
145.3
0.796
137.8
0.816
132.9
0.837
128.5
0.857
119.3
0.878
118.5
0.898
100.2
0.918
96.9
0.939
90.3
0.959
53.1
0.980
45.5
1.000
44.3
1.020

Normal

LN2

LN3

0.000
0.001
0.067
0.094
0.159
0.166
0.236
0.238
0.257
0.326
0.416
0.430
0.432
0.457
0.465
0.473
0.496
0.510
0.539
0.549
0.552
0.570
0.572
0.612
0.634
0.644
0.656
0.658
0.663
0.667
0.673
0.679
0.680
0.692
0.693
0.709
0.710
0.710
0.711
0.720
0.726
0.731
0.742
0.743
0.763
0.767
0.774
0.812
0.819
0.820

0.004
0.012
0.059
0.072
0.102
0.106
0.141
0.142
0.153
0.195
0.265
0.278
0.279
0.304
0.312
0.320
0.345
0.362
0.399
0.413
0.416
0.443
0.445
0.511
0.552
0.572
0.597
0.600
0.611
0.620
0.635
0.647
0.651
0.678
0.679
0.721
0.721
0.722
0.724
0.747
0.762
0.776
0.805
0.807
0.863
0.873
0.891
0.974
0.985
0.986

0.003
0.009
0.053
0.066
0.097
0.101
0.138
0.140
0.151
0.196
0.270
0.284
0.285
0.311
0.320
0.328
0.355
0.373
0.411
0.425
0.429
0.456
0.459
0.527
0.567
0.588
0.612
0.615
0.626
0.634
0.649
0.660
0.664
0.690
0.692
0.731
0.732
0.732
0.734
0.756
0.770
0.783
0.810
0.812
0.862
0.871
0.888
0.965
0.975
0.977

Gumbel
0.003
0.014
0.097
0.118
0.166
0.171
0.222
0.224
0.237
0.290
0.363
0.376
0.377
0.399
0.407
0.413
0.435
0.449
0.477
0.487
0.489
0.508
0.510
0.552
0.576
0.588
0.602
0.604
0.610
0.614
0.622
0.629
0.631
0.645
0.645
0.666
0.666
0.666
0.667
0.679
0.686
0.693
0.707
0.708
0.735
0.740
0.749
0.801
0.811
0.812

Diferencia Del
Gamma
0.003
0.014
0.083
0.100
0.138
0.142
0.183
0.185
0.196
0.240
0.305
0.316
0.318
0.339
0.346
0.352
0.373
0.386
0.415
0.425
0.428
0.448
0.450
0.498
0.526
0.540
0.557
0.559
0.567
0.573
0.583
0.591
0.594
0.613
0.613
0.642
0.643
0.643
0.644
0.661
0.671
0.681
0.702
0.704
0.747
0.755
0.772
0.867
0.887
0.890

Normal

LN2

0.02041
0.04015
0.00599
0.01267
0.05728
0.04390
0.09330
0.07521
0.07332
0.12144
0.19115
0.18528
0.16628
0.17140
0.15936
0.14605
0.14884
0.14282
0.15156
0.14106
0.12320
0.12095
0.10237
0.12215
0.12345
0.11360
0.10536
0.08613
0.07109
0.05458
0.04077
0.02575
0.00700
0.00175
0.02166
0.02521
0.04538
0.06566
0.08521
0.09653
0.11108
0.12628
0.13595
0.15543
0.15521
0.17200
0.18525
0.16775
0.18093
0.20021

0.01620
0.02852
0.00187
0.00967
0.00011
0.01693
0.00167
0.02081
0.03087
0.00877
0.04017
0.03282
0.01371
0.01787
0.00598
0.00701
0.00188
0.00537
0.01131
0.00445
0.01240
0.00637
0.02403
0.02155
0.04132
0.04174
0.04639
0.02847
0.01954
0.00763
0.00185
0.00633
0.02292
0.01595
0.03515
0.01399
0.03378
0.05388
0.07212
0.06919
0.07427
0.08090
0.07256
0.09049
0.05525
0.06602
0.06770
0.00523
0.01550
0.03456

0.20021

0.09049

Rechazada

Aceptada

0.1923

Diferencia Delta D
LN3
0.01781
0.03182
0.00774
0.01540
0.00466
0.02155
0.00443
0.02350
0.03293
0.00811
0.04539
0.03886
0.01982
0.02547
0.01407
0.00150
0.00800
0.00535
0.02365
0.01730
0.00058
0.00746
0.01012
0.03672
0.05665
0.05695
0.06129
0.04334
0.03419
0.02209
0.01593
0.00738
0.00933
0.00340
0.02265
0.00355
0.02337
0.04349
0.06185
0.06035
0.06647
0.07409
0.06801
0.08613
0.05592
0.06762
0.07114
0.01502
0.02491
0.04384

Gumbel
0.01776
0.02701
0.03546
0.03642
0.06401
0.04870
0.07904
0.06034
0.05363
0.08544
0.13866
0.13079
0.11160
0.11374
0.10086
0.08691
0.08797
0.08119
0.08913
0.07861
0.06076
0.05885
0.04033
0.06258
0.06618
0.05771
0.05126
0.03222
0.01805
0.00221
0.01043
0.02443
0.04286
0.04924
0.06904
0.06876
0.08886
0.10912
0.12846
0.13751
0.15052
0.16430
0.17094
0.19015
0.18356
0.19917
0.21004
0.17879
0.18918
0.20802

Gamma
0.01727
0.02682
0.02160
0.01823
0.03612
0.01980
0.04054
0.02153
0.01241
0.03592
0.08050
0.07158
0.05230
0.05296
0.03970
0.02547
0.02591
0.01901
0.02743
0.01732
0.00041
0.00110
0.01948
0.00773
0.01551
0.00955
0.00641
0.01229
0.02482
0.03941
0.04980
0.06185
0.07965
0.08130
0.10088
0.09262
0.11260
0.13279
0.15169
0.15577
0.16533
0.17587
0.17528
0.19383
0.17092
0.18331
0.18752
0.11272
0.11310
0.13033

0.08613

0.21004

0.19383

Aceptada

0.1923
0.192333

Rechazada

Aceptada