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1D EESUTAEE WAGHUE TIOGDIATS 2007
SECRET SECTION O2 OF O5 KABUL 003572
ODIs ARIES
E.o, 22980. mpc. 11/06/2099
aes. peew, Grek, Ae
SGavect’ Com StRRTEGY: CIVILIAN CONCERNS
SECTION 02 OF 03 Kabul 3572
Classitied By: anbasaedor Kar] W. Eikerberry, Reawone 1.4 (b) and (a
Madane secretary.
SETAE SESE Ehe ia of our dei theraeione on the vay formrd ix
Righanletan, f vould 1ite to cutiice ay ceservatione above
Gotntgrineutgency usetegy thet telice on ¢ lafee infusion of
Geotoreee SP aly “aasee che ihe ech fy situation an
Aepbanlstgn sa, car{lanvand hye scisl‘cmal Crsopecitt ftp
Euvtame,tha,sobgaing ceenat in fone chece fhe" troope fe
Repleyta™enscehece2 CRUSL TERS uBere Fhe robe PEs
fs Fobuse coungerinesroency approach will yield neasuranie
Bac*i'an‘ concerned, chat ve ‘piceredcingce’ ene Fyhe or thts
Sepanolen of on mignion and thar ve have ‘epates
siternatlye™ ihe proposed. txcop’ incre: Beh
d'coate and’ an indetinite, largerggie 0
3 Kigkanbotan” gunceac ing’ the Reed for
Boss ibe treae ae geo a
House ik fhe Seasctemm, teal st wills deepen che nilitary
involvenent in lop that rast agree. cannat be wen’ solely
byratlitery aanne™ Suregenn eveti1 Pen osuneet eo sue
sletesgie pumpocte of Afghani ting end eivilianising
eraser’ Funct iene bere
‘Eeihaps the charte we fave aii cen showing the U.S. presenceNy,
‘(Q)ar%Pes mov 06 15:45:27 2968 (xabst 95721 PEE COBY 1 OF 3
Ni) 2 og off in soning years in 9 bell, cuxve
iy Gilt grove accurate’ itis nore likely, hovever, “chat cites
lcreckach afe Sopctcitt sd'optimaetiC: In thas ‘cage, banging
Pores ster, capa mace fe Sng Y TE ot impenat bie, fo bring eur
Pecpie hone oj a reassnaple tinerable’"korseyar, ‘one. o
‘charts diapitye dolite costa, Acknovleagement ‘of che
Sittonged cel, costa Mighe illusctare Che greater Sesivauit icy
eiiian aiteraatives now aiamiseed eG coo costly oF noe
feasible:
FETE EES oy seusone for,chie asnenmnent
sibatey
fo exere sovereighty in the curthecence oF our" goat) a
Stacefuly sudindady sbitcauificiene htghansdiaa
785" aku reaperetbiiity for any sovereign Burgea,
hether defente, governance or developuere. He and such of
ELSE Soe ttane heed. egueare aie art only to,
EeeFitory for 3 never-ending fvar on gerrort and fOr
STTESE)‘otnas‘co"Une ageinae surenundieg borers
cio, wma wid comin afghantotense
Soph ROLAEEL Sori gteste, nanauliing i fice
SESE coteretsge Ms, Sar tnrtok leg es
SEEDS SES enh teste gee a 2
SUSEESROe Dea clea e's nigleinna alah wien
Eceitae Nstaetouieetents tv uprtif ott grade ed ated
Secreta seaside tieisiayrts eopeetenetatnce”
Seeedie ENG ee, esata
Se ae
Deyond arses hinaeif, thers te ao political ruiing clase
phatiProridee en overarching national, Pdent ey chet =
ErSnofenae Socal affiliaciofe ana: provides. rel sable
pireterghip- dven if ve could eralicate pervasive
Exteape lop ‘che: Souptey han fay’Entigenmue’scureee of
‘Tau means to, dieeribute onrtices.to ies cit zane.
Seetiete porte SuSefe tovae priuel cea sailor capactiy
neceae reat Stans, that expeldiea sastarence, Either aiiivary
Espsneibititles to the Réghano and drav dovn our preser
2, We overestinate she ability of Afghan security forces
Srategy ntnger ose Arghan freee, feng] ly aneunanp.
ESR UNO Sa HR ay
Khrgal to enbesce hie cole af commader*Invchtef a step he
Eeeists, and for hin to comic hia government co zecruleing
Staghiner agcatenty es meet gu requivenenes ine Aimy 2
high attrition and low reccolemere Ta rheuns in the
sth tect Ha eat
ste astettet, Seb agian opt ae
PRLEPIN an inevaed! ie ceneiny (2h
Ema titi ce ey tee
Boi) ane ee Bs a ee
Taha gaarts Sk
‘SECTION 02 OF 02 Kapur 3572only,
Epa apes Her 06 esas 000 taba 39721 per conr 3 0F 1 page 3 0F 4
ey Gc ctv tae eran pense: a, face, oats ot
¥ ae Hineteiel igcentives tor soning the a ata MPCTE Ser
rumrien, fe, that cove. fonsea are saser:tatte_grabilize
ighepietan, ther we. should the benafite to
security of making service tn the Adghan eeeurity: forces more
Sttractive, rether than relying sore heavily on Foreige,
Eeoope:
= Thecg 44 a250,the deeper
Begnaeed, ated peta getes
Bie ehchelte quickie fosoye the Big
Bat Gosecase She aelaiey ek o'er febten a
Ga ils 'eentortts slaatony ove: nee "they fee foriomeeauty
HATO-TGAF ‘troops that will continue to do most cf the
Higietny ps, Sake hnaeg”of cle enfunl fee. Rather thay
ErISgY/etaiapen ey at inaot ap, the otee’ torn ae
the Arghans, ¥ * —a
xn atau deperdency., The
that once, the efeaxtag’ane
EUS tiie ne eee ti aseegtes
Brea hee, Bh ee
Sespris itunes ts tases “aren tee
ie sanity She ieeteh cote Peduce
oyernmént, function, any have aever, tad these services, at
Sie Say Pec is ESR Gea
SEoLGLaE aGee"Bot noc clay Snd/soule eshe' youre ee baila
nome: 1k ie sostly U.s. ctvidiane ang
p ago, folio bebind cat’ accen isco cleafed, seat,
ponatoitiey. in, a
ever -widening are srder to feave until the
Site se Perla ke sirsraetriircon ea etait
igeteq co an Afghan governnent Enat both functions in
Sabufoand eeathee Eine ESTER EScal tevel
45, Ie prepared strategy does not, remedy an inadequate
chases oPeEeare, "Hee sa te, ches Tas Sagealzactone!
EAE commander, getieigacy enor hanpere civiliea
srlemtT venous Sed here lly!etava. ote Watoss ea? tlstogiy vith
at the she fides Catone etcuse fee aie io nce to gerve se
Sapabilities fad elit act ifkeiy to dibaian further with
Setert pont atreck wiehdraial cf Boy’ ‘persomel. Seog
thet Scorrepe ony sule af Ser snd sccoseEraction
ee Sin"gue coat felon
<=, one quesciong the nilitary.€ need for coherent conmand
Spal Spaehel a Uh then IGRLGS"Rte fet Gone gais"to ee
Tong-term opezei in fe whee ene ‘SE the'centeai premiece i
‘fatlyfategtates erate fore. there’ ie no, debace
thac"ene'O25s Ge Sn the mitt ‘ie peed to. fepen the
Ente thle Wil, tnerease: tbe 0.5" Be:
Eighe, tot they. Ieage the iviluan dialogue by deeasie:
But the ambiguity ia the Afghan goveraneats ayer ovty,
& (8) ares Mov 06 26145127 2098 (Kabul 3572] PRI Cory 2 OF 1 Fage 4 OF 4
he thority compaasie es ene malieary t
(SSR Pee cd ee cre Hels ba ete
EXISHat aee
SooauaBM,pfopERee sEnategy way not be. cost-effective
Benaing adiielonet const belgtate vila Segutre eens of
PISIGE, OP doilees eomnaaly for foe
scaLied 1, bap enavee. set’ an Seouest thie. gumor
{eera 92.5 biliion Ineiease in our budget ‘fo: cevelopne
gevezsance tne anaiyand an debated’ ‘nvatent detati, only fo
should reviott decieione about our developroat funding
cot
siaid,PArf#oular, ve shouta weigh yetner a relatively smait
adeifsEnal Shveotnent’ in prosrane for development and
SECTION 03 OF 93 Kabul 2572
SeceEMenes osld yiend reoutee thes: SE not, as vinibte oe
ERE aii ar Gres Flere of cde
Titan am Shia eel tha tg su abeh salamat
ae gh posed U8 SRST Eire
Se'ta & pootefon as’ sone'pount co. caitrotl rarenee EEoop
Eeployneheas ay Algeane bonth co oes enelt Liver inpeoving
eintche, singi
wot Atphop faatasitity oo, longa efe bora
Intercece so bege served by a weak neighber- Thefe is, reason
ia 'Betteouteged br autietinre tuerent midicary effensive in
ligegrietan, Dae chs iascing veosle of vale eftécr ie atiil
SonsortOPEti2ee wore Se inwurgency
fhe" inourgeney in southern Taliban strongholdey ar the
Agqgan! network, che most lethal id ler of aiiied troops and
asia Spell" tng npactuasy prebiey fe fait
HEEgEeSE ENS Sica tton" seed ag aa Fosed rtes ay be
sao es tene Lenny for gee-omrgers top ton coins
Se Ee eae eee.
LEE Pe TR ae wis
‘Tale seyorardun auanariiee ey concerns about the
Soatesinnangey oe
SHIP Eeifoutup wien ¢ canted
Eeconmendationes. “Pot fons tf eannot support,
Excomendation for an Immediate Fresicentiel decision to
Geploy another 40,000 treope hexe
Madame Seeretacy, I wold ask that you pass thie arsenanene
Cocthe White fotae, YF you deem ie Sppeoprince, in advance of
the erineipet's Commiccee Props
ape orcrer presuaa
PAGE 0 aun 93591 02 OF 02 0916562
ro, RAP (O2) S00H494) S6H101) SRO) see cog)
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0917022 NOV 09 sTe%5 (TOZAL, COPrES:090)
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By ARSRBAGSY a,
BS REESE URINE ciomotare 2000
SECRET stcrion 61 oF o2 HABUL 003594
opis ARIES
£0. 12esa. pect: 11/10/2019
igs. Reow,
BDavdcts LookINe BEYCND COUNTERINSURGENCY IN AFGHANISTAN
SteTroW 01 OF 03 Kabul 2604
Clataitsed ay: ambassador Karl ¥. Elkenberry, Reaon 1.4 (b) ane (a)
ern secretary
Mpipeevigus caste addressed conceyns about eshing a, decieien
Slotogen on a propaed toumcertowsegeney geestegy that netfee
Propose that "the wnite Houes comiaaien a delieerste’ provers
ay out the Tange ef strategic options om Afgnaniaten and
Rie broadentaa the analyats Beyond wilitery,
Ghere are hice purpsoee for doing a0:
Ficee, "to nake eure thee we have fested every ensunption
Eehin the AtgnansEocused musivaxy councevingugency
Bicoedt fo exanine sen-ailts sary aleermaciven oF companion
remeioonat etait teen isang sleaze
BBS ahsckeg GET lal eesetbeanatng and evpport,
Se vebtiae Afanen sad afiied public com tment
Hate bach UBSCagts She saab cGeTEAr'peconaa may or
Sac P gt Bees Beta aS Teh ig deeiee se” oBaee hE YE
EI ga ahloat ole ines tals eutigs ast Becton Vi yiera
08s ak me, FOE Gane Se aS
‘Pgpeeretondoag esTeeery saaiase"and ederondectone. ae
Spl bol onpeta tng eee tte tartan eandets eti ce
RUSRInESton ph "au oedb tee Soofuatiog'cat'ews tcitene
Brondees an tu vider a wider eet Of varitbles before
hese gneddreoned varis
ee sneluée Pokistan sanctuaries,
Yeatcnfghan leaderasip abd governance, Wao cSvii nil itaty
Yhtegration. and our haciens: wil" co\Deat eke nunan ard.
FRSTESS SESE Bedeel? Ce cee cit nen ae
Se sed Pegiany oar oat ate late pe
Genie scp atau a asunear togiegrss Both?
achieving our strategic goale, regatdless of the nunver ofpir
oat 2 won Mov 09 32,3813 2009 {Kabul 3584] SRAP COPY 1 OF 4 Dage 2 OF 3
é Sesdietone. trcopa we may send
‘wars gone acgue that ve spe decide on che full-up trope
Seplopetee Sow: The'adisteryse Leeg Toad tines Che
Sidial ‘decieivences’and seepive are aadaced ar conpell ing
Seeebaats angoures the full tloap request ghicklye
atstarge ve have. toe ine we noqdeseetatsip toto Sarly next
SesToTRS iuteTeshe that time’ to decide On the sight sotese
2s serious on the security picture in Afghanistan {9 today
Ze $8, not' eo aize Enet wernt eorantounee or connie
Sueneivee fo Gueeping chang fer an, our
SIME or eft lan’porturs for extepie’ sigicionm caabae
Betgedst foyla be dtetonste for poerdbig’depieynens, and
Whdther to sefd then all they ould be areiverg in
Ynerensnto, in ary case:
Jo mow venolvg, the President could source, that he vas
Tenadiacliy’avdaring a snalter Soneiagene ef U.S forces to
GGater ANGE Sha Eo" Beceace she porutetion, witie emphasising
Tht Eater depleyaents would Be" condseloned on spect fic.
‘aeepe by ene AEgtaK govermmene, sven ao\a conmicnehe anda
Bpesilo! Pinel ine. Seghanee aiites and sthors in the eegias
sEuletote thie act an indeSiodon, bur rather at eeriousne
St pupene!
aay Ne Must Take the Tine
SICH Shh GEES Pia ig ena ol aie
‘Bore, pecyrity watvever they depioy, for
‘Eepcpnd igang a8 Sb" aso eo
ingeebTi tty’ In Atghanioven, intaneféiee, Aico, Fel
Be te shay sleeoaa oat Sroatects e'thia
Beaty teh Sater eas MAST tesa TCs eh toe
Siadshoee ie'ahrace tuats aig helo ty ape!
Ruste cf tttletiacltics, barter? Sere tee
Sdvange! our Stestegie purpeose, "inoteed chey SEE dig us fn
Srna,
GE ESTTOL cane oo nore wah roeieng tare: end nts ay
Hae ayo gide ath BEAST athe uth geo
thar AGE PSO EE ATE UE a
Sgerel explicitly rejected the coosnterineurgency® havie
secaer
eecrzen #2 OF 02 Kabat 2594
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rebeeed pictacke nebtcten es
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SersEts ERPee aces ht tara ater ATEN Ee
caucts, os fcaet setathe i athar tees iftaten of
SPSL Scene ii te aeNI te
Aor MyjNon Wor 09 12139133 2609 (Rabu 3594) SRAP COPY 2 OF 4 Fage 3 OF 7
fe freon, siestrg coments, sertverate ot
yng carried oot by che end of the year, to decide Bow Best co"
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