Meteorological

Winter Is Over, the Beginning of Spring is

March 21st; Will Spring Arrive On Time?

A large part of the population that resides east of the Mississippi River is clearly
ready for Spring, as they have come out of one of the coldest Februaries on record
and have been experiencing both Winter and Spring thus far in the month of March.
This, quite understandably, has led many to believe that Old Man Winter is
loosening his grip on the region for the season, but is it actually true? This post will
highlight some of the factors that will shape our sensible weather for the
foreseeable future, likely through the end of March and into the coming months, but
will ignore any mention of possible storms. Those will be discussed in any necessary
separate posts.

Lets begin with a look of what a typical March should look like, in terms of the
upper-air pattern (jet configuration) at the 500 hPa level (mid-way between the
surface and Tropopause, the upper boundary of the part of the atmosphere where
we live).

If it is assumed that the atmospheric jet is located roughly where the green color-
fills meet the blue color-fills, it can be seen that the flow is relatively zonal, or in this
view, circular, from west to east (left to right) with subtle variations. The colder

colors (blues and purples) represent the core of the coldest air, while the warmer
colors (yellows and reds) represent the warmer and more tropical air. Therefore,
any locations north of/poleward/closer to the center of the image as compared to
the jet are colder whereas those south of/equatorward/closer to the edge of the
image are warmer. Similarly, any bulges toward the outer edge of the image (such as
over Europe, located in the top-right quadrant of the image) show time-averaged
troughing during this month, where temperatures remain somewhat colder, while
bulges toward the center (not present) would indicate ridging in the time-average
and warmer temperatures.

Time to compare this to a few forecasts of 00z runs from March 14th for the 6-10 and
11-15 day time periods, which will be listed in the following order: GFS Ensemble,
EURO Ensemble and CMC/GEM Ensemble. The maps depict the same level as the
image above, but instead of averages of the heights, the departures from the average
(seen above) are plotted. The warm colors (yellows and reds) denote heights
(temperatures) at this level that are higher than average, while the cooler colors
(blues) show where there are lower heights (temperatures) as compared to average
for this time of year.

GFS:


EURO:


CMC/GEM:



Starting with the 6-10 day period, notice how each of the ensembles shows subtle
variations of the following: Troughing (cool colors/lower heights/lower
temperatures) over the northeastern U.S. and eastern Canada that are surrounded
by ridging (warm colors/higher heights/warmer temperatures). This is a classic
setup for a below-average temperature regime for the eastern-half of the United
States, with all of the possible teleconnections (upper-air configurations) in support;
-N.A.O., -A.O., +P.N.A. and -E.P.O., plus extra enhancement from the tropics
(discussed later). These are all descriptions of the upper atmosphere for various
locations. For example, the N.A.O. (North Atlantic Oscillation) is an index that relates
heights (temperatures) between Greenland and the north-central Atlantic; the E.P.O.
(East-Pacific Oscillation) does the same for near and north of Alaska into the north-
central Pacific, and the P.N.A. (Pacific-North American Oscillation) relates the
heights (temperatures) over the west coast of North America. The A.O. (Arctic
Oscillation) is used to assess the heights (temperatures) over the North Pole/Arctic
Circle. The signs of these indices describe the configuration. A negative (-) index
such as in the N.A.O., E.P.O. and A.O., seen here, means that the height fields are
reversed (i.e. where it should be colder, further north and toward the middle of the
images, is experiencing above-average heights {temperatures} while further south
and toward the edges of the images is experiencing below-average heights
{temperatures}). A positive sign in these indices represents the opposite; lower and
higher heights/temperatures are where they would be expected, closer to the North
Pole and Equator, respectively.

If one looks closely at the images for the 6-10 day period, he will see that if he
follows imaginary lines out from the center of the images, the negative signatures of
the E.P.O., N.A.O. and A.O. are present. As for the sign of the P.N.A., if negative,
troughing (below-average heights/temperatures) are present over the west coast of
North America, while positive indicates the exact opposite. The A.O. is exactly the
same, just over the North Pole/Arctic Circle. With the configurations discussed
above, one can see how the colder air from the Arctic is being displaced southward
into eastern Canada and the northeastern U.S. Because above-average heights/
temperatures everywhere else to the north surround it, the cold air has no other
place to go except south. The ridging/warmer temperatures over the West Coast
helps to further promote the southward surge of the Arctic air and the troughing
(lower heights/cooler temperatures) in the East, so this is actually one of the best
patterns that has been present all Winter for cold weather.

Now, before the reader begins to look for the nearest tall cliff to jump from, the time
of year must be considered. It is mid-March already, average temperatures in the
eastern United States range anywhere from the upper 30s in the Upper Midwest and
New England to the 60s and 70s along the Gulf Coast. Even the Arctic air is not as
cold as it would be in, say, January, and with the rapidly decreasing snowpack this
air can moderate quite a bit before reaching the U.S. Still, temperatures five to ten
degrees below normal look likely for the 6-10 day period, generally speaking.

As for the 11-15 day period, it will likely be near or slightly below normal. Why?
Going back to the indices discussed earlier, while the +P.N.A. and E.P.O. are still
very much present, the N.A.O. and A.O. couplet has broken up. This means that the
cold air will have more room to work with to its north since there is no longer
higher heights/warmer air there, and so will likely allow the core of the coldest air
to shift back north. However, because of the strong +P.N.A. and E.P.O.,
ridging/warmer temperatures over western North America will still be locked in,
which will continue to promote some troughing/colder temperatures downstream
over the eastern U.S.

Connections to the tropics were mentioned very briefly at the beginning of this
discussion, and shall now be discussed. The main item that will be focused on is the
M.J.O. (Madden-Julian Oscillation), which is an area of convection that circles the
Equator consistently, and completes one cycle around the Earth in approximately
40-60 days. However, it is only considered a main player in eight phases, or
locations, mainly from Indonesia eastward to the east-central Pacific. Once it travels
through those locations, it usually becomes too weak to have any concrete
connections in the mid-latitudes. Here are the eight phases:


Although it would be much too lengthy to discuss here, when the M.J.O. reaches
Phases 8,1, 2 and 3 during this time of year, it typically promotes troughing and
colder temperatures in the eastern United States (see below).

Here is the actual forecast for the M.J.O. on what is called a phase-space diagram. It
looks a lot worse than it is. The large numbers 1-8 show each of the phases while the
other numbers (1-4) denote the amplitude, or strength of the circulation as it
progresses through the phases (around the globe). The further away from the
middle circle the line is, the stronger it and its link to the mid-latitudes are, while the
closer it is the weaker everything gets. Where the red line meets the green line, that

is the start of the forecast, and each black dot along the green line represents the
predicted location of the circulation each day in the future. As is made crystal clear,
the M.J.O. is expected to be quite strong and progress through phases 7-1
throughout the 6-15 day period. This is a strong indicator that colder weather will
be influencing the eastern States, especially in the 6-10 day period, when the M.J.O.
will be at its strongest.

There will be some offsetting that occurs from the lack of the -N.A.O. and A.O.
couplet from days 11-15, as well as a weakening of the M.J.O. during this period that
will act against the western ridging/warmth (+P.N.A. and E.P.O.). This further
increases confidence in a slightly below normal to near normal forecast during this
period.

What Lies Beyond Day 15?


Seeing as though that is beyond the limits of the models that the author has access
to, this projection will rely on a bit of personal experience as well as what has
already happened in the past.

The first thing that must be considered is the persistence of the +P.N.A. and E.P.O.
couplet that has actually been a fairly consistent player for the last couple of years.
This then begs the question of Why has it been so persistent? There is one
hypothesis that the author would like to put forward. Consider the following image
of sea surface temperature anomalies in the eastern Pacific:

Granted, this is only for the month of February this year, but the same type of signal
has been present for approximately the last two years. The author suggests that
because of the long-lasting presence of the above-average sea surface temperatures
in the eastern Pacific and even up into the Bering Sea and Arctic Ocean, this is
allowing an increased flux of heat into the lower levels of the atmosphere. Even
though the air may change via the large-scale upper air patterns, this constant
source of heat is affecting that circulation. In relatively quiet periods of mid-latitude
flow, those heat fluxes can actually begin to form a ridge/area of warmer
temperatures near the western coast of North America in the low-levels, which can
eventually begin to impact the upper-levels in time as well. Then, as the mid-latitude

flow becomes more active, it could work to enhance the ridging/warmth already
building in this area, creating a positive feedback loop that is very hard to break
down. This then might lead to the development and maintenance of the +P.N.A. and
E.P.O. couplet discussed earlier, which was shown to promote below-average
temperatures across the eastern United States. Seeing as though this has remained a
persistent feature for quite a while, there seems to be no reason to think that this
will break down any time soon. Although the M.J.O. cannot be predicted this far out,
and the N.A.O. and A.O. look to head toward neutral or even slightly positive phases
(which should allow near to slightly above-average air to overtake the East), seeing
as though they have been like that for much of the Winter and below-average
(above-average) temperatures have still flooded the East (West), it would not be
surprising to see that trend continue into April. Therefore, beyond day 15 looks to
feature near to slightly below normal temperatures as well for the foreseeable
future (at least through mid-April), with intermittent short periods of above-
average (below-average) temperatures for the eastern (western) United States.

Based on a blend of historical correlations with the two large-scale teleconnections
thought to dominate the extended period; the E.P.O. and the +P.N.A., as well as the
less influential factors of the expected neutral to slightly positive phases of the
N.A.O. and A.O. and the state of El Nino (seen below), the precipitation outlook looks
to generally feature near to slightly below average precipitation across much of the
West and near to slightly above average precipitation across the East and Southwest
from day six through mid-April.

The last thing that will be briefly discussed is the outlook of severe weather. So far,
things have been pretty quiet, largely because of the strong dominance of the cold
air so far this season. As time progresses into April, based on the factors already
discussed, it seems as though this will continue through the period. With the
continued persistence of the troughing in the east, the low-level moisture transport
and presence of warmer air should be muted, and even if it does occur, will likely be
too brief to really allow for large outbreaks. Another factor to consider is a possible
lack of consistent wind shear co-located with the best instability. As was the case
last year under very similar conditions, the best low to mid-level shear was often
lagging the strongest areas of ascent. Shear and ascent are the two main ingredients
for severe weather, and if one is missing, it is all but impossible to get large
outbreaks. Although this second factor is not playing into the actual forecast due to
its impossibility to forecast this far out, it was noted purely as a verification tool for
the future. This does not mean that severe weather wont happen at all; rather,
when compared to normal, this season is looking to feature fewer severe
thunderstorms through at least mid-April.

Key Points:

Below-average temperatures in days 6-10 for the eastern U.S., above-average

for the West
Near to slightly below-average temperatures in days 11-15, near to slightly
above-average in the West
Near to slightly below-average temperatures likely through at least mid-April
across the eastern U.S., near to slightly above average temperatures in the
West
Above-average precipitation in the eastern half of the U.S. and below-average
precipitation in the West through mid-April
Relatively quiet severe weather through at least mid-April

Hopefully, this was an enjoyable and informative read for everybody. Look for a full
late-Spring and Summer update featuring hurricane, temperature and precipitation
outlooks next month!!!

-Ray