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Spring Arrives This Friday, and will be Brought In by a

Snowstorm
Yes, thats right; snow is making a return to parts of the Northeast and MidAtlantic for the arrival of spring. This post will take a look into the details of the event,
and offer some early thoughts as to how much the area will receive.
First and foremost, lets begin with a synopsis. Look for fair weather to reign
supreme on Thursday, as surface high pressure sits overhead. Thursday night it will begin
to slide eastward such that by Friday it is located directly east of our region. While this is
occurring, it will shift the winds at the lower-levels of the atmosphere from northerly to
easterly, and eventually to southerly by Friday morning. This will allow for warmer air to
be blown over the relatively colder air immediately at the surface. Further up, mid-way
through the atmosphere, there will be a weak wave of energy progressing towards the
area as an upper-level jet streak (area of faster winds) begins to set up in a favorable
location relative to our area to bring widespread precipitation. To be honest, all of the
aforementioned components are ingredients that will help to produce precipitation, and
snow will likely be the predominant form through at least the first half of the event. But
how much will fall? The devil lies in the details. All model data discussed will be for
Friday afternoon (18z) taken from todays (March 18th) 12z runs, and different models
will only be discussed if there are large discrepancies. Otherwise, the images will be from
the Global Forecast System (G.F.S.) model.
Starting at the upper-levels, 300 hPa, here is what the jet structure is predicted to
look like (jet velocities in knots in the color-fill, heights in the black lines and winds in
the barbs):

As stated earlier, the main jet streak (with the core located over the southern MidAtlantic and back over the Ohio Valley) is favorably located for our area to provide
large-scale support for ascent and precipitation. However, the amount of ascent that is
able to occur is related to the properties of the jet itself; a shorter jet with very sharp
changes in wind speeds in short horizontal distances can produce much stronger vertical
motion than a more elongated jet with a smaller decrease in wind speeds over a larger
horizontal distance. In this situation, we have the latter; this jet extends from the MidAtlantic all the way into the eastern Pacific. Secondly, the deceleration in the winds from
the core (darkest blue) over our area is not all that strong. In fact, look at how there is a
tongue of light blue that tails from the jet to the northeast all the way back into the jet of
interest. Essentially, this shows that there is only approximately 30 knots of deceleration
across a roughly 400-mile horizontal span-far less than ideal. This suggests that the jet
will allow modest ascent to occur over our area at this level. An interesting note; although
not shown, the other major models (EURO and NAM) have an even larger tongue of
winds extending southwestward from the jet to the northeast of the one discussed, which
represents even less of a deceleration in the winds, and therefore less forcing for
precipitation, in spite of what they show at the surface.
Another component that plays into this forecast is the presence of a weak ridge at
this same level (seen by the slight northward bulge in the height field), highlighted by the
red line. Ridging, pretty much at every level in the atmosphere, corresponds to sinking air
and fairer weather. As can be seen, the center of this ridge is either directly over or just
east of our area, which may work to offset some of the ascent being forced by the jet core
to the southwest of it, especially earlier on Friday (morning).
The next level that will be discussed is the 500 hPa level (vorticity in the colorfill, heights in the black lines, winds in the barbs):

The main foci here will be the color-filled area over the Ohio Valley as well as the
height field associated with that. This area is under the influence of a mid-level trough
(denoted by the southward bulge in the height field), with forcing for large-scale ascent
just ahead of it from both the trough itself and the energy that is with it. This is good in
the sense that it again puts the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic in a favorable area of ascent.
The problem (and please take my word for it) is that this trough and its forcings are
actually weakening as they continue to head east. Today, March 18th, this energy actually
looks fairly impressive, with nice curvature, which allows for stronger and more
concentrated forcing. As it progresses eastward tonight and tomorrow, it will begin to
shear out in the fast and generally zonal (flat, west to east) 500 hPa flow, and by Friday
afternoon will look like this; a very shallow trough with a line of vorticity (energy)
embedded in it. By Friday evening, it will start to re-intensify, but too late for our area to
benefit. Since the energy is no longer consolidated and is spread out, the same amount
of forcing will become spread over a much broader area. Thinking mathematically, if
there is the same amount of substance spread over a larger area, there will be less
substance per square unit of measurement than if it were concentrated. This further
supports the idea of lack-luster forcing.
Continuing down to the lower-levels:

This is an image that is a little abstract at first. What it is showing is the relative
strength of ascent (descent) being produced by warm- (cold-) air advection that is
occurring from near the surface through the atmosphere, using temperature as a planar
surface. For example, the blue lines indicate pressure surfaces (e.g. 1000 hPa, 850 hPa,

etc.) and the barbs represent the average wind speed and direction, both at a 293K
TEMPERATURE level. So, winds that blow across the blue pressure lines from high
(e.g. 1000 hPa) to low pressures (e.g. 700 hPa) are actually rising, since pressure
naturally decreases with height in our atmosphere and warmer air is being driven by the
wind over colder air below it. On the other hand, where the winds are blowing from low
pressures to high pressures, the air is sinking as cold air from above is being driven down
towards the surface. Where the winds are perpendicular to the pressure lines is where the
strongest upglide/overrunning or advection (cold advection where the air is sinking and
warm advection where it is rising) is occurring. As the angle between the winds and the
pressure surfaces becomes less (or zero), the amount of advection/vertical motion
decreases.
In the red-circled area, which is our area, take a look at the winds relative to the
pressure surfaces. The air is ascending, since the winds are blowing from the higherpressure surfaces towards lower ones, which is good for ascent and precipitation.
However, the angle with which they are doing so is far less than perpendicular; in fact, it
is quartering, which means that our area is not in the strongest region of warm-air
advection-induced ascent. That is actually over the Delmarva where it is too warm to
snow. A second factor that deserves mention is the distance that the advection is
occurring over. With respect only to that occurring in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic,
there is not a long fetch of upglide, and is instead only occurring over a span of a few
hundred miles. Typically, in order to get a lot of snow, a nice long fetch of upglide is
ideal, and as can be seen is clearly not present here. The reader may be wondering Well,
what about earlier in the day, since weather moves from west to east? Even though it
will not be posted, the reader is not entirely wrong. There is similar forcing occurring as
early as Friday morning, but it is only producing clouds because of dry lower and midlevels. The atmospheric column will take a while to saturate to the surface and allow
snow to make it down, especially given its lighter intensities. By the time it does start
making it through the lower levels, the best low-level forcing will already be displaced to
our east.
Up to this point, all these factors do not lead a great setup for OUR area, but will
lead to intensification offshore, since the forcings are better concentrated and the
dynamics will evolve favorably. This is supported by the fact that further on in time, a
well-organized area of low pressure is forecast to develop fairly quickly to our east.
Unfortunately, however, it is too late to have any large impact on our sensible weather.
The last key thing that will be looked at is the atmospheric temperature profile:

Heres a sounding taken from the 12z Hi-Res NAM for New York City (for
purposes of more accuracy with respect to the time resolution; the information is roughly
the same). The solid black line on the right represents the temperature through the
atmosphere (denoted by the horizontal black lines labeled from 1000 on the bottomsurface to 100 at the top) while the solid black line on the left represents the dew point.
When the two are together all the way to the bottom, as seen here, the column is said to
be saturated and precipitation is reaching the surface. The solid blue lines (the only other
line that the reader needs to worry about) represents the temperature scale in degrees
Celsius. Notice how it is SKEWED to the right-hence, a SKEW-t diagram. Obviously, if
the temperature line crosses the 0oC line, the air at that level is above freezing and
melting of falling snow will occur. If the layer of air that is above freezing is relatively
shallow, less melting will occur, but as it gets deeper, the amount of melting increases.
Here, the entire column is below freezing, which does mean snow. Keep in mind,
though, that with the warmer days that have occurred on the coastal plain (especially) the
ground has thawed some, and with the higher sun angle, the combination of these two
will make it harder for snow to accumulate right away. Some will be lost to phase-change
cooling, where the snow melts and takes some of the heat energy from the ground to do
so. That, in turn, cools the ground. The heavier the rates of snowfall, the quicker the
ground will be able to cool off. Throughout this analysis, though, it has been argued that
the intensity of the precipitation will not be all that heavy thanks to a lack of strong
tropospheric-deep forcing. Therefore, lighter snowfall rates will likely lead to smaller
accumulations than what are currently being predicted by most guidance.
Areas to the north and west will be colder throughout the column, and thanks to
climatological factors, have been colder throughout the entire preceding period. This
means that the ground will be colder to start, and less snow will be lost to cooling it.

Again, referencing the evidence from earlier, these same regions will also be removed
from the best forcing for ascent that this event has to offer. So, even though the snow will
accumulate faster, and snow to liquid ratios will be marginally higher, the lack of forcing
should keep everybody in roughly the same playing field with respect to total
accumulations.
So, what is the first-call for this event? Here it is:

.
Please note that details such as the times of any changeovers are not included, as
it is still a little far out to try to narrow down. Those, as well as any additional necessary
changes will be included in the Final Call.
Hopefully this was an informative and enjoyable write-up, and please feel free to
add any appropriate constructive criticism. Thank you, and have a great evening!!!
-Ray

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