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    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF or read online from Scribd
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    4 views4 pages

    Golden Arches Theory of Conflict Prevention Friedman1

    Uploaded by

    Jose David Beltran
    Conflictos

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    of 4
    | the Lewes and 2 The Ove Tree” | Ponto Peednade Golden Arches Theory of Conflict Prevention | 702 ee very once in a while when I am traveling abroad, I need to indulge na burger anda bag of McDonalds each ties. Por all] know, F have eaten MeDonald’s burgers and fies in more coun tres inthe worid than anyone, and I can testify that they all rally do ‘aste the same. But a 1 Quarer-Poundered my way around the world ig the MeDonall' nT Sg Cao nt Dea a Surin ere Adit Notwocounties at oh a MeDonl's ad Dons ad oh war sgtn ‘each other since each got its McDonald's - mnotkng vase, cay Lok Mie as ada ower McDonalds, Sai Abb Sebel sch oes times fr Ms rar Egypehad Daas ortod ee snd Fan a become Mons cunes Nonco oan a asic the Golden Aches wet in Whe ie bg en the Ml Eas xy? eS liana ny We tee Mie Eas counties don't hae Meena tr te Dai? yn am and vas ing enough yay on hess cll MDa’ ead anes ia Oak Book in, and ep ts hae ey ea ieved enough by ito it me oat Ho ee ee neato eccutnes a Hare Cates Mednafen research and traning facility. The MeDonald's folks tam my model past al thie inverational experts an confined that they 9, coulda’ find an exception [feared the exception would be the Falklands wa, but Argentina didnt gt its fist MeDonald's unt 1986, four years afer hat ‘war with Great Britain. (Civil wars and border skirmishes don’t count “MeDonald's in Moscow, El Salvador and Nicaragua served burgers t0 both sides in thei respective civil wars.) ‘Armed with tis data, I offered up “The Golden Arches Theory of| Confit Prevention.” which stipulated that when country reached the level of economic development whereit hada middle las big enough support a McDonalds nework, it became a MeDonala's country. And people in McDonald's counsies didn't like to igh was anymore, they prefered to waitin ine fr burgers Otters have made similar observations during previous long periods of peace and commerce-using somewhat more conventional meta hors. The French philosopher Montesguiu wot inthe eightcath cea- itemtional wade hid crested an intemational "Grand hich was uniting all merchants and trading nations across Doundires, which would surely lock ina more peaceful word, In The Spirit ofthe Laws be wrote that “two nations who trafic wih ach other become reciprocally dependent for fone hasan interest in buying, the ‘oie has an interes in Selling: and thus their union is funded on their ‘mutual necessities” And in his chapter entitled “How Commerce Broke ‘Through the Bararism of Europe,” Montesquieu argued for his own Big ‘Mac thesis: “Happy itis for men that they are in situation in which, ‘though their passions prompt them to be wicked, iis, nevertheless, t0 {heir interest tobe humane and viewous” In the pre-World War I era of globalization, the British writer Nor ‘man Angell observed in his 1910 book, The Great tusion, thatthe major ‘Wesiem industrial powers, America, Bits, Germany and France, were losing their taste for war-making® “How can moder ite, wit ts over povtring proportion of industrial activities and its infinitesimal propor tion of military, keep alive the insinetsassocited with war a5 against those developed by peace” With al the Fre trade and commercial links tying iogether major European powers in his day, Angell argued that it ‘would be insane for them to go to war bocause it would destroy both the ‘winner andthe loser Monti and Angell wer actly Ft Eons inion sa making he cost of nar much bg fet vcr tn wee nd ny ration ha hse ogra fat Weld be eve a ther hope hat hist neal somehow end polis na wee Montsueu an angel ne mighty. rg rps ha dies wren his Bary a the Popomesin Na at tos oreo goo war fren of he eshte a a san shbalaton, whe aes te es af gata ce som fh ero ert ds an cated ma ay fe Sstnts choco a lng atthe ord se of ren et aching, oa oe a ewes sil rater The agg ove he psi of mari an spc mee ad he tee tmsonal tag of ene own ve we canine chen ns Cel of Inet sli on andthe ene Ts Weld Ta andthe Oe Tre ring Dpto pope og sl ached to het tr ngage nd pec aes And they wil sing for hme. fr hoe, ght fe on and ef omc. ich why elton dws atc an i tea ool ts Leet ral hela ws ead tas ok leer ton des mrt geopole But des tle The i in as eying mae—aig MeDonsisas ametphor~is that y's enon of bass tay ashe eno ois ing areas ose honor. eat feats or aan tines Wht olen patdo when Momesqevandeen Age we wee sins in dere Tay’ verson of tulion hte mcg se some negra, dil inepaon sneering Smeg indi and patos peng ofp veo sn seers th remem ofthe world td i genase Gotin Sauce hele Hed ma larson ssbof consis on te eg ply thao tne sans oc sr pluggedinotesyem banter, ing wa nd itincrecn cst igor tte wae tan 2) previo en mode hey Bu ica gaunt there wil be ae na Te il stays be hasan to wh fr ue eons ane wil roo ya at ome tn sich No Kae, will choose to ive outside the constrain oF the sytem. Stl. the botiom lin is this: in the previous era of globalization nations in the system ‘thought ice before trying to solve problems tough warfare inthis era of globalization they wll thnk about it thee times. cours, 80 sooner did the fist edition ofthis book come out, in spl 199, than nineteen McDonal's aden NATO counties under took air scies aguinst Yugoslavia, which also had McDonald's Immediately, ll srs of commentators and eeviewers began writing © say that this proved my McDonalds theory all wrong, and, by impli tio, the notion that globalization would affect geopotiies. 1 was both ‘amazed and armas by how much the Golden Arches Theory had gotten round and how intensely certain people wanted to prove it wrong. They ‘were mostly realists and outot-work Cold Wariors who insisted that politics, and the never ending struggle between nation-states, were the ‘immutable defining feature of international affis, and they were both professionally and psychologically threatened bythe idea that globaliza- ‘ion and economic steration might scwalyinuence geopolitis in some very new and fundamental ways. Many ofthese exits were partic larly obsessed with the Balkans precisely bocause this old-world apa in which politics, passion and olive tees always takes precedence over cconomics and the Lexus is what they knew, They were so busy eleva ing the Balkans into a world historia issue, nto the paradigm of what ‘world politi is actly about, that hey failed to noice just what an exception i was, and how, rater than spreading around the world, the Balkans was isolated by the world, They were so busy debating whether ‘we were in 1917, 1929.0 1939 that they couldnt sce hat what was hap ‘ening in 200 might actualy be something fundamentally new-—some- ‘hing that docs't end geopolitics but influences and reshapes it in important ways. These crits, 1nd, are so busy dwelling on what hap- pened yesterday, and telling you what will happen someday. chat they have nothing to say about wha is happening today. They ae experts at extrapolating the fate from the past hile shipping over the presen Ws no surprising tis group would be threatened by the MeDonal’s argument, because, fi were even hal tre, they would have to adapt their worldviews o, even warse, lear to look atthe world lifferent and to bring economies, envionment, markets, technology the Internet {and the whole globalization system more into their analyses of geopol: My first reaction to these erties was to defensively point out that [NATO isn'ta country, hit the Kosovo war wasnt even areal war and to the extent that it was areal wa twas an intervention by NATO into sivil war between Kosovo Serbs and Albanians. And I pointed out that ‘wen [posited my orginal MeDonal's theory Thad qualified itn several important ways: the McDonald's theory didn’t apply to civil wats, because, | explained, globalization i going o sharpen civil wars within countries between localizes and globalizers—between those who eat the Big Mac and those who fear te Big Mac wil et them, Moreover, ‘the theory was offered witha imited she ife because, sid, sooner oF later vinually every country would have MeDonalt', and sooner or later to of them would goto wat Bu I quickly realized that no one was interested in my caveats, the Fine pint or the idea that MeDonal's was simply a metaphor fora lager ‘Point about the impact of globalization on geopolitics. They just wanted {0 drive a ste though this Golden Arches Theory. So the more ‘thought about the eric, the more tld people, "You know what, or eal the caveats andthe ine print. Let's assume Kosovo is a real test. Let's see how the war ends” And when you look at how the wat ended ‘you can se just how much the basic lagi af the Golden Arches Theory sill applies. Here's why: As the Pentagon wil tell you sirpower alone Brought the 1999 Kosovo war toa close in seventy. eight days for one reason — ‘not because NATO made lif impossible fr the Serb troops in Kosove. Indeed the Sethian army ended yp driving most of its armor oat of ponerse omar TO REE ‘Europeuith a population that wanted to be part of ioday's main global trons, from the Inereto economic development—which he presence oS ‘Once NATO tumed out the lights in Belgrade, and shut down the power aids and the economy, Belgrade's citizens almost immediately ‘demanded that President Slobodan Milosevic ring an end tothe wat 8

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