Faith Hollinger

Grade: 5th
Content: Mathematics
Probability Unit
Day 1:
Purpose

The purpose of this lesson is for students to understand that the probability of an
event is represented by a ratio from 0 to 1. Students will use terms such as
impossible, equally likely, and certain to describe the likelihood of an event
occurring. Students will understand that the probability of an event occurring is
the ratio of desired outcomes to the total number of possible outcomes. Students
will practice writing the probability of an event in fraction and decimal form.

Math SOL 5.14: The student will make predictions and determine the probability
of an outcome by constructing a sample space.

Objective

The student will be able to write the probability given the Dice Probability
worksheet and a six-sided dice with 60% (6 out of 10) accuracy.
The student will be able to find the probability of picking each colored counter
given a bag and worksheet with 83.33% (5 out of 6) accuracy.
Key Vocabulary: Probability, Outcome, Impossible, Equally Likely, Certain

Procedure
a. Introduction/Snapshot

What is probability? Probability is the chance of an event occurring. For

example, if you flip a coin you have chance of landing on heads and chance
of landing on tails.
Have students list situations that involve probability.

b. Development/Learning Activities

Explain that the probability of an event is represented by a ratio from 0 to 1. This

can be shown on the number line.
Show students the number line and give each student a scenario. Have students
come up and show where it would be on the number line.

Students will practice using the vocabulary written on the number line such as
impossible, equally likely, and certain.
Model and practice as a whole group finding the probability to certain events and
writing it in fraction form.
The probability of an event occurring is the ratio of desired outcomes to the total
number of possible outcomes.
Students will then get a bag of multicolored counters. They will find the
probability of picking each color.
Next students will find the probability of rolling certain numbers on a dice.
Students will record their probabilities on a worksheet.

c. Summary/Lesson Closure & Student Summarizing of Their Learning

What is probability? How can you find the probability of a certain event?
Point to the number line and ask what impossible, equally likely, and certain
means.

Materials

Probability scenarios on slips of paper

Number line
Clothes pins
Dice
Worksheets

Evaluation Part A

How will you assess the students knowledge of the new skills taught?
I will observe students as they figure out where their probability scenario would
go on the number line. I will also observe students as they find the probability of
the multicolored chips and dice. I will see if students wrote the correct fractional
notation.

Adaptations/Remediation (For students with learning challenges)

Provide more one-on-one assistance.

Extensions (For Advanced/Gifted Students)

These students will be able to find the probability of rolling two dice after finding
the probability of rolling one dice.

Day 2:
Purpose

The purpose of this lesson is for students to understand the difference between
theoretical and experimental probability.

Math SOL 5.14: The student will make predictions and determine the probability
of an outcome by constructing a sample space.

Objective

The student will be able to write the theoretical and experimental probability in
fraction and decimal form given multicolored counters with 70% accuracy.
Key Vocabulary: Probability, Outcome, Theoretical Probability, Experimental
Probability

Procedure
a. Introduction/Snapshot

What is probability? Probability is the chance of an event occurring.

Today we will learn about theoretical probability and experimental probability.
We already did theoretical probability yesterday because we found the likeliness
of an event happening based on all possible outcomes (with the multicolored
counters and dice).
Theoretical probability is what you expect will happen.
Experimental probability is what actually happens and is determined from the
results of an experiment.

b. Development/Learning Activities

Students will then find the theoretical probability of pulling out certain
multicolored counters. Students will record the theoretical probability of each
counter.
Next students will find and record the experimental probability. Model how to do
this beforehand.
When students are done have them compare their experimental probabilities with
other students. Are they exactly the same? Why not?

c. Summary/Lesson Closure & Student Summarizing of Their Learning

What is probability? How can you find the probability of a certain event?

Student discussion of the difference between theoretical and experimental

probability.
Materials

Multicolored counters
Worksheets
Coins

Evaluation Part A

How will you assess the students knowledge of the new skills taught?
Observation of student discussions. I will also see how students are finding the
theoretical and experimental probabilities. I will see if students are able to
identify the difference between them.

Adaptations/Remediation (For students with learning challenges)

Provide more one-on-one assistance. Model for students how to find the
theoretical and experimental probabilities.

Extensions (For Advanced/Gifted Students)

These students will also be able to find the theoretical and experimental
probability of flipping a coin.

Day 3:
Purpose

The purpose of this lesson is for students to review theoretical and experimental
probability. Students will also work with spinners and identify if they are fair or
unfair.

Math SOL 5.14: The student will make predictions and determine the probability
of an outcome by constructing a sample space.

Objective

The student will be able to explain if his or her spinner is fair or unfair given a
spinner and example with 100% accuracy.
The student will be able to write the theoretical and experimental probability in
fraction and decimal form given a spinner with 80% accuracy.
Key Vocabulary: Probability, Outcome, Theoretical Probability, Experimental
Probability

Procedure
a. Introduction/Snapshot

What is probability? Probability is the chance of an event occurring.

What is theoretical probability? What you expect to happen
What is experimental probability? What actually happens from the result of an
experiment.

b. Development/Learning Activities

Show students a spinner and explain all the possible outcomes it can land on if it
is spun. Show a fair and unfair spinner and explain the difference.
Give each student a spinner. Have them identify all the possible outcomes of the
spinner. Is your spinner fair or unfair? How do you know?
Students will then find and record the theoretical probability of the spinner.
Next students will find and record the experimental probability.

c. Summary/Lesson Closure & Student Summarizing of Their Learning

Student discussion of the difference between theoretical and experimental

probability.

Have some students share their spinner and explain if it is a fair or unfair spinner
and why.

Materials

Various spinners
Worksheets
Colored pencils/crayons

Evaluation Part A

How will you assess the students knowledge of the new skills taught?
Observation of student discussions. I will also see how students are finding the
theoretical and experimental probabilities. I will see if students are able to
identify the difference between them. I will see if students are able to identify the
difference between a fair and unfair spinner.

Adaptations/Remediation (For students with learning challenges)

Provide more one-on-one assistance. Model for students how to find the
theoretical and experimental probabilities.

Extensions (For Advanced/Gifted Students)

Have students compare their theoretical probabilities to their experimental
probabilities.

Day 4:
Purpose

The purpose of this lesson is for students to review finding the probability of
certain events. Students will be able to differentiate theoretical and experimental
probability.

Math SOL 5.14: The student will make predictions and determine the probability
of an outcome by constructing a sample space.

Objective

The student will be able to find the theoretical and experimental probability of the
rock, paper, scissors game given an example with 100% accuracy.
Key Vocabulary: Probability, Possibilities, Outcome, Certain, Equally Likely,
Impossible

Procedure
a. Introduction/Snapshot

Review key vocabulary.

As a whole group fill in a worksheet with word bubbles. Students will have to fill
in the blank. For example, all possible ______ are represented in a tree
diagram. (outcomes).

b. Development/Learning Activities

Review the difference between theoretical and experimental probability.

Students will find the theoretical probability of the rock, paper, scissors game.
Next students will find the experimental probability by playing the game 20 times
with a partner. Students will record their data and discuss their results.

c. Summary/Lesson Closure & Student Summarizing of Their Learning

Have some students share their results of the game. What is the difference
between theoretical and experimental probability?

Materials

Word Bubble Worksheet

Rock, Paper, Scissors Worksheet

Evaluation Part A

How will you assess the students knowledge of the new skills taught?
I will see if students understand all the key vocabulary. Lastly, I will see if
students are able to differentiate theoretical and experimental probability and
write the correct probabilities for each.

Adaptations/Remediation (For students with learning challenges)

Provide more one-on-one assistance.

Extensions (For Advanced/Gifted Students)

Ask students where some of these probabilities fall on the number line. Are some
of these probabilities impossible, equally likely, or certain?