House Republican Appropria�ons Commi�ee

Economic Brief Rep. Bill Adolph, Republican Chairman February 2010

January Revenues Fall Short by $120 Million;

Year-to-Date Collections Now $374 Million Below Estimate
General Fund revenue collec�ons for January 2010 fell short of
es�mate by $120.2 million, marking the 21st consecu�ve month in
which the state has failed to reach projec�ons.

This shor�all increases the year-to-date deficit to $374.4 million,

which is more than three-quarters of the $450 million shor�all the
governor projected the state would reach by June 30.

Lagging collec��ons in the state’s Sales and Use TTax and the Personal
Income Tax (PIT) were the driving factors behind the January
shor�all. Sales tax collec�ons were $49.5 million below projec�ons
and the PIT fell short of its mark by $51.7 million. EMPLOYMENT STATISTICS
December 2009 Monthly Change
With these taxes lagging significantly over the course of the Labor Force 6.310 Million -19,000
current fiscal year – the sales tax is currently down $230.7 million
and the PIT is down by $163.4 million – the total revenue outlook Unemployment Rate 8.9% +0.4
for the remainder of the year is bleak. Given the fact these two
taxes account for the majority of the state’s General Fund Revenue, Total Employment 5.751 Million -37,000
the state cannot climb out of the current deficit without significant
increases in these two tax collec�ons. Such increases are highly 12-Month Growth
unlikely when considering the state’s vola�le job market and ongoing Total Employment -278,000
lows in consumer confidence.
Unemployment Rate +2.5

General Fund Revenue REVENUE COLLECTIONS

January 2010
Year-to-Date Collections: -$374.4 Million
$4,500,000,000
Corpora�on Taxes Below Es�mate
Estimated Collections
Actual Collections
$4,000,000,000
$101.04 Million -$3.16 Million
$3,500,000,000

Consump�on Taxes Below Es�mate

$3,000,000,000

$2,500,000,000 $891.04 Million -$50.66 Million

$2,000,000,000
All Other Taxes Below Es�mate
$1,500,000,000

$1,000,000,000
$1.11 Billion -$64.97 Million
$500,000,000
Non-Tax Revenue Below Es�mate
$-

$17.34 Million -$1.46 Million

* State General Fund revenues noted above are based on the most recent end-of-month collections.

House Republican Appropriations Committee

(717) 787-1711 www.PABudget.com 245 Main Capitol