Villarreal1

WouldyoulikeaCoke?
TestingtheEffectivenessofCokesAdvertising

Inthisstatisticalreport,theeffectivenessofadvertisingwillbedemonstrated
throughtestinganadonarandomsampleofAGSstudentsatAustinHighand
recordingtheresultsthatsaidadyields.Iftheproportionofstudentsthatdesirea
Cokeisgreaterafterviewingtheadisgreaterthanitwaspriortoviewing,thead
isasuccess.Ifnot,wefinallyhaveevidencetosuggestthatthesurplusof
advertisingaroundusisnothingmorethanwhitenoise.

ColeVillarreal
APStatisticsPd.6
May27,2015
20152016

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TableofContents

CoverPage...1
TableofContents.2
AnalyticalReport.3
WorksCited.9
Appendices.10

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ColeVillarreal
KikerPd.6
APStatistics
51315

StatsFinalProject

Asconsumers,weliveinaworldinwhichweareconstantlybeingadvertisedto.Itseems
thateverywherewegoweconsistentlyreceivesalespitcheswhethertheybefromotherpeople,
screens,walls,boards,andeverythinginbetween.Ofcoursenotallofthisadvertisingis
effective,butsomeofitmaybemorethanyoumightexpect.Whetherornotwelikeit,our
subconscioustakesintheimagesandsoundwereceivewhenbeingsubjectedtoan
advertisementandrespondstothemdifferentlythanwemightontheoutside.Forinstance,ifone
weretobefullyhydratedyetsawanadforadeliciousandrefreshingCoke,theymay
initiallyrejectthepropositiontogooutandbuythebeverage.However,iftheybecomethirsty
againlater,theymayfindthemselvescravingaCoke.Theadhassuccessfullydoneitsjobby
workingitswayintothecustomerssubconscious.Fromtheworkplacetothesocialscene,
everydayweareallmetwithadvertisinginsomeshapeorform.Advertisingissimply
inescapable.However,withasurplusofadvertisement,itcanbearguedthatweasconsumersare
becomingdesensitizedtoitspresence.Inotherwords,anoversaturationofcommercialsand
marketingmayhavetheeffectoppositeoftheirintention.Toomanyadsmayresultinthe
consumerfeelingbombardedandturnedofftotheideaofbuyingsaidproduct.Allthatbeing
said,theremustbeareasonfortheprevalenceofadvertisinginourculture.Forexample,
CocaColahasmaintainedthesameadvertisingcampaignwithpolarbearssince1922.Before
thattheywereoneofthefirsttoaccompanytheirproductwitharegularslogan,simplyDrink

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CocaColain1886.ForallofthetimeandmoneythatCocaColasinksintotheiradcampaigns,
theymustbeeffectivetosomedegreeattheveryleast.
Inordertotesttheeffectsofadvertisingontodayssociety,asimplerandomsampleof
40AGSstudentsatAHSwasobtainedandblockedintofourgroupsoften.Subjectswere
obtainedbyuploadingarosterofAGSstudentsintoRstudioandthenrunningthecode
ags[sample(nrow(ags),40),]togeneratealistof40studentschosentoparticipateinthe
experiment.Thispopulationwaschosenduetothefactthatteenagersareamajordemographic
targetedbyadvertising.However,thisisjustasmallpercentageoftheoverallpopulationof
studentsatAHS.Infact,oneoftheconditionsneededtoconductthehypothesistestcannotbe
metusingtheAGSpopulationastherearenot400AGSstudentsinthe20152016classthatis
beingpulledfrom,thusmakingourresultsquestionableasthereisnotapopulationgreaterthan
tentimesournvalue.
Thesubjectswerethengivenasurveyatthebeginningoftheexperimentaskingthemif
theywouldlikeaCoke.Theneachofthefoursubjectsineachgroupweregivenadifferent
treatmenttoconsume:abottleofwater,abottleoflemonade,asoda,andnothingatall.After
receivingsaidtreatments,thefoursubjectswatchedanadforCoke.Oncetheadisfinishedthe
subjectsweresurveyedonwhetherornottheywouldlikeaCoke.Iftheyansweredyes,they
weregivenacoke.Iftheyansweredno,thentheadvertisementwasrecordedasafailure.By
givingeachofthefoursubjectsadifferenttreatment,theimpactthattheadvertisementhason
differentcircumstancescanbeeffectivelytested.Forinstance,thesubjectthatisdrinkingwater
shouldntbethirsty,meaningthatiftheadworksitsduetoenticingtheviewerbasedontheir
tastepreference,notnecessity.Thiscanalsobeseeninthesubjectthatisdrinkinglemonade,a

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drinkthatinarguablyhasmoretastethanwater.Thatbeingsaid,thesubjectthathasnothingto
drinkaswellasthesubjectthatisalreadydrinkingsodaarebothusedascontrolgroups.The
subjectwithnothingisusedtotesttheeffectsofanadonapresumablythirstyperson,whereas
thesubjectwiththesodaisusedtotestanadseffectivenessonsomebodythatalreadyhasthe
productbeingadvertisedtothem.
Aftertheinitialsurvey,19ofthesubjectsansweredyeswhenaskediftheywouldlike
aCoke,and21ofthemsaidno,anearfifty/fiftysplitforeitherchoice.Inorderforthe
advertisementbeingshowntothesubjectstobeconsideredsuccessful,theproportionofstudents
thatwantaCokeafterseeingtheadmustexceedtheproportionprior.Thismeansthatthenull
hypothesisoftheexperimentisthattherewillbenodifferenceintheproportionofstudentsthat
desireaCokebeforetheywatchandadforCokeandaftertheyveviewedthead,andthe
alternativehypothesisisthatthedifferenceintheproportionofstudentsthatdesireaCoke
beforetheywatchanadandafterwillbelessthan0,indicatingthattheproportionincreased
aftertheadwasviewed.Afterviewingthead,28ofthesubjectsansweredyeswhenaskedif
theywouldlikeaCoke,andonly12ofthemsaidno,givingthesecondproportionneededin
ordertorunatwosampleproportionztest.Thefirstconditionofhavingasamplegreaterthan
30ismetgiventhattheexperimentstested40subjects.Aspreviouslymentionedthough,the
followingconditionofdrawingfromapopulationtentimesgreaterthanoursampleisnotmet
duetothefactthatthesamplewaspulledstrictlyfromAGSstudentsandnotAHSstudentsasa
whole.Thatbeingsaid,theconditionsofntimespbeinggreaterthanorequalto10andntimes
qbeinggreaterthanorequalto10aremetforboththefirstsetofproportionsandthesecond
(seeappendicesforcalculations).Bothsamplesareindependentofeachother,andthuswecan

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usenormalapproximation.Afterconductingaztest(again,allcalculationsfoundin
appendices),wegetavalueof2.044.Theprobabilityofzbeinggreaterthan2.044is.02047.A
significancelevelof.05wasusedforthisexperimentasthisisthestandardandthisparticular
experimentisnotofseriousenoughimportancetodemandadrasticallylowersignificancelevel
suchasthe.01valuethattypicallyaccompaniesexperimentsinvolvingmedicalproceduresand
thelike.Ourpvalueis.02,meaningthatwerejectthenullhypothesisthatthereisnodifference
intheproportionofstudentsthatdesireaCokebeforeandafterwatchinganadfortheproduct.
Wehaveevidencetosuggestthatthedifferenceisinfactlessthan0,meaningtheproportionof
studentsthatdesireaCokeisgreaterafterwatchingthead.
Theresultswereabitdifferentthanwhatmighthavebeenexpected,especiallygiventhe
populationthatoursamplewasdrawnfrom.With28yesand12noresponses,onewould
thinkitsabitunusualthatoveraquarterofthehighschooldemographicsampledfromwerenot
interestedinthesoda.Consideringthefactthatyoungadultsareoneoftheprimarytargetsin
advertisingcampaignsduringthisdayandage,thisparticularadmaynotbemeetingthemarkin
termsofeffectiveness.Italldependsontheexpectedreturnfromtheadvertisingcampaignandif
theadvertisingisdeemedineffective,thecampaignwillbeshutdown.Thisallseemsabit
drasticbasedonthisdataalone.Sure,thereareplentyofreasonswhyateenagermaynothavean
affinityforsoda,orevenjustforCokeinparticular.Perhapssaidteenagerhasnotbeenasteady
consumerofsodainthepastandhasnotdevelopedanostalgicconnectionforthebeverageover
theyears.OrperhapstheybelievethatCokeisnothingmorethanemptycaloriesandchosenot
todrinkitsimplybecauserefusingtodosoisthehealthierchoice.

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Thisbringsustotheindividualtreatmentsandtheresponsesthattheyreceived.Ofthe
tengivennothing,ninesaidyestoaCokeafterviewingthead.Ofthetengivenwater,eight
saidyestoaCokeafterviewingthead.Ofthetengivenlemonade,sixsaidyestoaCoke
afterviewingthead.OfthetengivenaDr.Pepper,fivesaidyestoaCokeafterviewingthe
ad.Thesepatternssuggestthatadvertisingismosteffectivewhenmarketedtowardsthosethat
areplainthirsty,asevidencedbythelargestproportionofyesanswerscomesfromtheblock
ofsubjectsthatwerenotgivenabeverageastheirtreatment.Thetwosmallerproportionof
yesanswerscomefromthelemonadeandDr.Peppertreatments,demonstratingthatthead
wasnotaseffectiveonthosethatwerealreadyconsumingadrinksimilartoCokeiningredients
and,inthecaseoftheDr.Pepper,taste.
Inconclusion,theadworkedtoadegree.TheproportionofAGSstudentsthatdesireda
CokeafterviewinganadforsaidproductwasinfactgreaterthantheproportionofAGS
studentsthatdesiredacokepriortoviewingthead.Whilethisdoesindicatethattheadwas
successfulintermsofbringingmoreconsumerstoitsproduct,thisdoesnotalwaysmeanthatthe
advertisersthemselveswillconsidertheirmarketingcampaignasuccess.Manyfactorsgointo
marketingcampaignssuchascharityandpresscoverage,thatmaybeconsideredconfounding
variablesinthisexperiment.Businessisagiveandtake,meaningthatmoneyhastobespentin
ordertobegained.Ifadvertisersfeelasthoughtheyarenotseeinganincreaseinconsumption
thatnetsprofitaftertheexpensesthataregeneratedbyadvertisingcampaigns,thenthecampaign
willbeconsideredafailureandshutdown.Unfortunately,informationregardingthebudgetfor
theadusedinthisexperimentisnotpubliclyaccessible,norisanestimateavailableforthe
numberofconsumersthathaveseenthisadglobally,sofornowitisundeterminediftheadwas

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asuccessfromafinancialstandpoint.Iftheexperimentweretobeperformedagain,itwould
ideallytakealargersamplefromalargerpopulationsoastoencompassmoredemographicsin
theexperiment,ratherthanjuststrictlyteenagersinhighschool,specificallytheAGSclassof
2015.
Thisexperimentillustratestheimportanceofstatisticsinbothourlocalandglobal
economy.Itsimportanttoconductresearchthroughexperimentssuchasthisoneinordertoget
abetterunderstandingofpatternsnotonlyinconsumerism,butinhumanbehavioringeneral.
Althoughthisparticularpopulationwassmallinthegrandschemeofthings,anevenlargerscale
testwouldprovidesomereallyvaluableknowledgeforadvertisingfirmslookingtobettertheir
craft.Asstatedbefore,advertisingtrulyiseverywhereandthisexperimentdemonstrateswhy
thatisthecase.Theconsumersgainedaftertheadwasviewedmayhavebeensmallerthanwhat
marketingexpertswouldhopefor,yetitseffectivenesshasbeenofficiallyvalidated,possibly
providingevidencetopredictafuturefilledwithevenmoreadvertisingandconsumerism.

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WorksCited
"Coke2012Commercial:"Catch"StarringNE_Bear."
YouTube
.YouTube,n.d.Web.25May2015.
"TheEnduringHistoryofCocaCola'sPolarBears."
The
CocaColaCompany
.CocaCola,n.d.Web.25May
2015.
"5CharacteristicsofASuccessfulMarketingCampaign."
Forbes
.ForbesMagazine,n.d.Web.25May2015.
"AHistoryofCocaColaAdvertisingSlogans."
The
CocaColaCompany
.CocaCola,n.d.Web.25May
2015.

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Appendices:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S2nBBMbjS8w

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WebsitePortfolio:
http://colesstatsportfolio.weebly.com/