y(t)

y1
y2
y3
y4
y5
y6
y7
y8
y9
y10
y11
y12
y13
y14
y15
y16
y17
y18
y19
y20
y21
y22
y23
y24
y25
y26
y27
y28
y29
y30
y31
y32
y33
y34
y35
y36
y37
y38
y39
y40

ventas
336.96
1487.73
240.87
8425.55
56239.95
294981.31
108.32
396.37
121.28
11363.85
1032.57
19963.99
368.99
3430.77
20.21
3448.24
19853.37
1027.49
324.41
2622.95
499.93
83.13
577.92
178729.55
125.79
44.83
459.01
9130.85
5954.47
1081.74
88704.41
15853.71
140251.58
0.01
471.56
1.39
13.53
4068.12
2113.21
8223.83

mes
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4

y41
y42
y43
y44
y45
y46
y47

1466.44
1255.22
34620.42
34.32
2382.05
1443.74
3418.59
19719.24

5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

y(t)
y1
y2
y3
y4
y5
y6
y7
y8
y9
y10
y11
y12
y13
y14
y15
y16
y17
y18
y19
y20
y21
y22
y23
y24
y25
y26
y27
y28
y29
y30
y31
y32
y33
y34
y35
y36
y37
y38
y39
y40

volumen
336.96
1487.73
240.87
8425.55
56239.95
294981.31
108.32
396.37
121.28
11363.85
1032.57
19963.99
368.99
3430.77
20.21
3448.24
19853.37
1027.49
324.41
2622.95
499.93
83.13
577.92
178729.55
125.79
44.83
459.01
9130.85
5954.47
1081.74
88704.41
15853.71
140251.58
0.01
471.56
1.39
13.53
4068.12
2113.21
8223.83

bt
b1
b2
b3
b4
b5
b6
b7
b8
b9
b10
b11
b12
b13
b14
b15
b16
b17
b18
b19
b20
b21
b22
b23
b24
b25
b26
b27
b28
b29
b30
b31
b32
b33
b34
b35
b36
b37
b38
b39
b40

1150.77
1047.20
984.02
739.02
1237.63
5778.56
29923.87
17593.86
7405.34
-417.87
-4844.67
-8437.23
-8488.84
-9524.53
-9116.74
-8317.73
-6701.30
-3490.23
-2622.68
-1842.64
-923.90
-388.70
-16.60
289.90
16512.01
10307.06
5028.68
918.51
-1260.81
-2958.74
-4319.55
3002.69
1301.45
11189.26
4481.05
-575.55
-4105.69
-6206.18
-6753.05
-6704.03

y41
y42
y43
y44
y45
y46
y47
y48

1466.44
1255.22
34620.42
34.32
2382.05
1443.74
3418.59
19719.24

b41
b42
b43
b44
b45
b46
b47
b48

-5516.40
-4796.74
-3880.29
113.32
-214.10
-212.73
-277.07
-119.44

St
s1
s2
s3
s4
s5
s6
s7
s8
s9
s10
s11
s12
s13
s14
s15
s16
s17
s18
s19
s20
s21
s22
s23
s24
s25
s26
s27
s28
s29
s30
s31
s32
s33
s34
s35
s36
s37
s38
s39
s40

336.96
1142.50
1979.11
2146.46
4547.50
20921.57
107184.49
96008.34
79640.45
60968.44
45794.56
28974.69
20365.42
8424.30
259.07
-6194.30
-9123.95
-5121.66
-5720.08
-5742.61
-4522.79
-3662.70
-2811.05
-1805.97
52557.62
48386.47
41098.93
32427.03
26081.13
19160.56
11665.80
31753.70
29085.58
63346.39
52174.95
39800.67
27458.00
16350.68
8321.59
1731.94

0.3 Alpha
0.5 gamma

s41
s42
s43
s44
s45
s46
s47
s48

-1013.32
-4130.87
-5872.76
3558.99
2580.91
2371.39
1944.18
2192.56

nivel de alfa
nivel de gamma

0.3
0.5

Yt

St
6.4
5.6
7.8
8.8
11
11.6
16.7
15.3
21.6
22.4

Bt
6.4
6.40
6.16
6.65
7.30
8.41
9.37
11.57
12.69
15.36

St

nivel de alfa
nivel de gamma
Yt

0.3623
1

St
6.4
5.6
7.8
8.8
11
11.6
16.7
15.3
21.6
22.4

Bt
6.4
6.4
6.1
6.7
7.5
8.8
9.8
12.3
13.4
16.4

0.6377

St
-0.80
-0.29
0.18
-0.34

6.4
5.9
6.1
6.3
6.0
7.0

6.4
5.9
7.1
8.2
10
11
14.6
15.1
19.2

Suavizacin ex
30
20
Valor

10
0
1

Punto de datos

Suavizacin exponencial
Real
Pronstico
2

Punto de datos

10

Yt
6,4
5,6
7,8
8,8
11
11,6
16,7
15,3
21,6
22,4