STRATPOLLS Briefing Kit For Media

GRAPHIC‐STRATPOLLS SURVEY January 2010

SUMMARY FOR MEDIA

OPINION POLL ON CRITERIA USED
BY FILIPINO VOTERS IN THE SELECTION OF
THE NEXT PRESIDENT OF THE PHILIPPINES
Preference for President

JANUARY 16-22, 2010

By Prof. Alfredo S. Sureta, Jr.

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OPINION POLL ON CRITERIA USED

BY FILIPINO VOTERS IN THE SELECTION OF
Preference for President
January 2010
`
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Prof. ALFREDO S. SURETA, JR.

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Executive Summary
By Prof. Alfredo S. Sureta, Jr.
Executive Director

The latest national survey by StratPOLLS was conducted from January 16‐22, 2010 among 2,400 respondents of
voting age in thirty key cities of the country from Vigan City in Northern Philippines to General Santos City in
Southern Mindanao. .

Villar reduces Aquino’s lead to 10%;
But biggest gainer is Teodoro

One of the most significant findings of the survey was the perception by 26% of the respondents that Sen. Manuel
Villar seem to have found “his second wind” in his uphill battle against frontrunner Sen. Benigno Aquino III who
remained “stagnant” with 36%. The “Villar surge” came about despite the repeated criticisms from his peers in the
Senate when the C5 controversy raged during the week when the survey was conducted.
Significantly, three presidential bets gained grounds who are Villar from 20% in September 2009 to 26% in this poll,
former Pres. Joseph Estrada from 11% to 15%, and former DND Sec. Gilbert Teodoro from 5% to 11%.Teodoro is
the biggest gainer of the three and appears to overtake Estrada for third place.
In the vice presidential contest, Sen. Mar Roxas surged far ahead of his main rivals‐‐‐‐‐from 33% in September to
47% in this poll even as second running Sen. Loren Legarda posted a rating that ranged from 16% in September to
25% in this poll.

Crosstabulations: Socio‐eco classes,
Age and Linguistic groups

Aquino and Villar have two support bases among the socio eco classes. For Aquino these are Class D (middle) with
40% and E (lower or masa) with 43%. Villar has 22% among the middle class and 23% among the E class. Estrada
continues to find strong support from Class E with 25%, his personal highest. In the case of Teodoro, his appeal
registered strongly among the Class ABC with 18%, his personal highest.

Among age groupings, Sen. Richard Gordon has the highest individual appeal record among the youth with 54%
against second placer Villar who has 52%. Conversely, Estrada has the highest personal score in the adult sector
with 67%.

This poll identified three major “linguistic groupings” to test the strength of the so‐called “Solid North,” meaning
the Ilocano voters from Regions CAR, I, II and parts of Region III. These regions could deliver as much as an
estimated 3‐4 million votes. Among the Ilocanos, Villar has the highest preference rating of 46% with Aquino
coming second with 28%. Villar’s strong showing in the Ilocos region could be attributed to his adopting former
Ilocos Norte Gov. Bongbong Marcos as a guest senatorial candidate of the Nacionalista Party, Villar’s party.

Among the Tagalog voters, consisting mostly of Regions IV and parts of Region III, Aquino is the top choice with
36% followed by Teodoro with 20%.

Among Visayan voters (considered the largest linguistic group in the country but not known to vote solidly as the
Ilocanos of the north), the top two choices are: Aquino with 34% and Villar with 27%.



Media‐driven campaign;
Battle of TV ads

Victory in the 2010 national elections will be dependent to a large extent on the proper placements of strategic
materials in the media of communication, the strongest and most influential of which are television, radio and
newspaper in that order.
Even this early, there is already a consistent placement of thematic television advertisements by and for the top
candidates for president.
Among the candidates for president, the heavy buyers of television airtime are Villar, Aquino and, lately, Teodoro.
Among the vice presidential candidates, Roxas is the “heaviest buyer” of television airtime but with good results.
Since the return of his thematic ad “Mr. Pelengke” on TV, his rating in surveys have improved tremendously as
could be gleaned from this report. It will be recalled that Roxas’ use of the “Mr. Palengke” image in his 2004
campaign for the senate catapulted him to the top post.
The second heavy buyers of TV airtime are Legarda and Mayor Jejomar Binay.

Santiago tops senate race
with Cayetano and Marcos on second place

It is noteworthy that out of the Top Twelve senatorial candidates, four are considered as “new faces” and eight as
“familiar faces.” The top twelve senatorial choices, with their respective ratings are:

BAL
RANKING/CANDIDATES (2,400 RESPONDENTS) NCR LUZ VIZ MIN
RP (%) (%) (%) (%) (%)

1. Miriam Defensor Santiago 64 69 53 69 64
2‐3. Pilar Juliana “Pia” Cayetano 50 37 45 61 57
2‐3. Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, JR. 50 66 52 38 53
4‐6. Franklin “Frank” Drilon 49 30 43 64 59
4‐6. Jinggoy Estrada 49 36 45 53 61
4‐6. Ramon Bong “Kap” Revilla, Jr. 49 47 45 62 40
7. Juan Ponce “JPE” Enrile 43 41 33 40 56
8‐9. Rozzano Rufino “Ruffy” Biazon 41 54 32 33 44
8‐9. Ralph Recto 41 18 43 54 49
10‐11 Jose “Joey” De Venecia, III 40 62 33 33 32
10‐11 Teofisto “TG” Guingona, III 40 47 29 40 42
12 Vicente “Tito” Sotto, III 38 35 43 37 37

Among the top twelve, the four “new faces” are scions of known political families which are: former Ilocos Norte
Gov. Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr. (son of former dictator Ferdinand Marcos), Rep. Rozzano Rufino “Ruffy”
Biazon (son of sitting Sen. Rodolfo Biazon), NBN whistle blower Jose de Venecia III (son of former Speaker Jose de
Venecia, Jr.) and Rep. Teofisto “TG” Guingona (son of former Vice Pres. Tito Guingona). Only Biazon and De
Venecia appear to have the benefit of campaigning on the political influence of their paternal parents, Senator
Biazon and Representative De Venecia.

IN CONCLUSION and as is the practice in the United States, where polls results are printed side by side, thus giving
the voting public a better view for discernment, we are printing on this page the latest published survey results by
four Philippine polling firms with the hope that Philippine media would adopt the practice for the “maturation of
Philippine democracy” and a level playing field for candidates and voters alike.



Philippine political polling landscape

Aquino Villar Estrada Teodoro Gordon
Survey Period
(%) (%) (%) (%) (%)
SWS Jan.21‐25, 2010 42 35 13 4 2
Pulse Asia Dec. 8‐12, 2009 45 23 19 5 1
StratPOLLS, inc. Jan. 16‐22, 2010 36 26 15 11 5
The Center Dec. 2‐6, 2010 31 24 19 10 8
Ibon Foundation No data available
Asia Research Organization No data available
AVERAGE 38.5 27 16.5 7.5 4

American (USA) political polling landscape
Afghanistan Polls: Surge and Troop Levels
(Source: http://www.pollingnumbers.com/poll‐of‐polls/afghanistan‐surge‐polls.html)

Do you support or oppose sending more troops to Afghanistan?
Some of the polls included in the average may be outdated since the latest poll for each of the pollsters are
averaged in.
Pollster Date Support Oppose
AVERAGE 51.5% 43.1%
CNN 1/22‐24/10 61 38
AP Gfk 12/10‐14/09 42 56
ABC 12/10‐13/09 58 40
NY Times 12/4‐8/09 51 43
Quinnipiac University 12/1‐6/09 58 37
Bloomberg 12/3‐7/09 62 34
USA Today Gallup 12/2/09 51 40
FOX News 11/17‐18/09 42 45
NBC WSJ 10/22‐25/09 43 49
ABC Washington Post 10/15‐18/09 47 49



I. CRITERIA IN CHOOSING
PHILIPPINES January 16‐22, 2010
Sample size: 2,400
Margin of error: 2.2%

CRITERIA IN CHOOSING NEXT PRESIDENT BAL
RP NCR VIZ MIN
(Multiple Choice) LUZ
Principled person 62 61.75 66.56 62.05 57.85

Tried and tested in serving the country 60 78.15 47.36 58.79 57.23
Courageous 60 77.58 48.71 57.36 58.29
Has a good plan/foresight for the country 58 71.94 46.96 62.57 52.38
Pro‐poor/Helps the marginalized, poor 54 38.25 64.81 59.45 54.91
Good administrator 37 24.40 46.19 28.08 50.27
Good speaker/debater 25 16.35 37.20 22.58 23.59
Popular 20 24.90 11.87 24.11 19.93
Successful businessman 15 6.15 22.98 12.53 17.58

Scion of a former president 4 0.00 3.88 8.48 3.31

Q140. (CRITERIA IN CHOOSING PRESIDENT) Ano po bang PAMANTAYAN o KWALIPIKASYON ang inyong susundin sa inyong pagpili
ng Presidente sa eleksyon sa Mayo? Tignan pong mabuti saka kayo pumili ng APAT mula sa listahang ito.

What criteria are you going to use in choosing the next PRESIDENT of the country in the elections? Take a good look and then
select FOUR from this list. Mention the numbers only.



II. PERCEIVED ISSUES THAT COULD AFFECT
VOTER’S CHOICE OF PRESIDENT
Sample size: 2,400

BAL
PERCEIVED ISSUES (Multiple Choice) RP NCR LUZ VIZ MIN
(%) (%) (%) (%) (%)

Cheating in the 2004 and 2007elections 58 84.19 57.42 54.21 36.77

Anomalies and corruption in the government 54 77.21 50.66 43.61 45.52
Unemployment 45 58.94 44.15 44.90 33.47
High prices of basic food items 44 15.21 41.50 52.04 68.86
Increases in the price of gasoline products 32 15.27 35.59 30.74 45.19
Terrorism 23 6.60 22.55 30.41 31.63
Population explosion/Population increase 17 13.71 24.62 15.80 13.84
Drugs, Crimes and Peace & Order 13 3.54 18.97 17.99 12.54

Peace Talks 8 2.06 7.73 10.29 10.51

Q141. (PERCEIVED ISSUES THAT COULD AFFECT VOTER’S CHOICE OF PRESIDENT) Sa darating na halalan sa Mayo, at sa pagpili
ninyo ng PRESIDENTE, anong mga ISYUS ang sa palagay ninyo ang makaka‐impluwensiya ng malaki sa inyong pagpili ng susunod
na PRESIDENTE ng bansa.

In the coming elections, and when you choose a PRESIDENT, which issues do you think could bear a big influence in your making
your choice. Mention THREE from this list.



III. PREFERENCE FOR PRESIDENT 2010 ELECTIONS
Sample size: 2,400

OVERALL RESULT
Rating
RANKING/CANDIDATES
(%)

1. Sen. Benigno “Noynoy” AQUINO III 36
2. Sen. Manuel “Manny” VILLAR 26
3. Frmr Pres. Joseph “Erap” ESTRADA 15
4. Frmr Defense Sec. Gilbert “Gibo” TEODORO 11
5. Sen. Richard “Dick” GORDON 5
6. Bro. Eduardo “Eddie” VILLANUEVA 4
7. Sen. Jamby AS. “Jamby” MADRIGAL 1
8. John Carlos “JC” DE LOS REYES 0.25
Undecided 1.75
100

11 Aspirants 8 Candidates



OVERALL RESULTS BY SUPER REGION BY SOCIO‐ECO CLASS
SUPER REGION SOCIO‐ECO CLASS
BAL
PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES RP NCR LUZ VIZ MIN ABC D E
(%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%)

Sen. Benigno “Noynoy” AQUINO III 36 40 34 36 32 24 40 43

Sen. Manuel “Manny” VILLAR 26 21 29 34 22 19 22 23
Frmr Pres. Joseph “Erap” ESTRADA 15 16 12 9 23 14 17 25
Frmr Defense Sec. Gilbert “Gibo” TEODORO 11 12 14 8 9 18 11 5
Sen. Richard “Dick” GORDON 5 7 5 6 4 8 5 2
Bro. Eduardo “Eddie” VILLANUEVA 4 3 3 4 6 1 1 0
Sen. Jamby AS. “Jamby” MADRIGAL 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0
John Carlos “JC” DE LOS REYES 0.25 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
Undecided 1.75 1 2 2 2 6 4 2

GENDER AGE BRACKET
TOP 5 PRESDENTIAL CANDIDATES 36 &
OVERALL RESULT by gender by age bracket MALE FEMALE 18‐35 OLDER
(%) (%) (%) (%)
Sen. Benigno “Noynoy” AQUINO III 45 55 46 54
Sen. Manuel “Manny” VILLAR 47 53 52 48
Frmr Pres. Joseph “Erap” ESTRADA 46 54 33 67
Frmr Defense Sec. Gilbert “Gibo” TEODORO 41 59 49 51
Sen. Richard “Dick” GORDON 56 44 54 46

Visayas
Ilocano Group Tagalog Group
Group
MAJOR LINGUISTIC GROUPS p Reg. VII, IX,
Reg I, II and Bulacan and
X, XI, XII, and
CAR Reg. IV‐A
caraga
PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES (%) (%) (%)
Frmr Defense Sec. Gilbert “Gibo” TEODORO 5 20 9
Sen. Richard “Dick” GORDON 3 4 5
Bro. Eduardo “Eddie” VILLANUEVA 3 4 5
Frmr Pres. Joseph “Erap” ESTRADA 14 11 17
Sen. Benigno “Noynoy” AQUINO III 28 36 34
Sen. Manuel “Manny” VILLAR 46 17 27
John Carlos “JC” DE LOS REYES 0 0 0
Sen. Jamby AS. “Jamby” MADRIGAL 1 1 1
Walang Mapili 0 5 2

Q143. (PREFERENCE FOR PRESIDENT SHOW CARD 8‐WAY CONTEST) Magpapakita naman po ako sa inyo ngayon ng isang
listahan ng mga kandidato sa pagka PRESIDENTE ng Pilipinas. Kung kayo po ay mamimili na ngayon, sino po ang inyong pipiliin?
TIGNAN NGA PO NINYONG MABUTI ANG LISTAHAN AT PUMILI PO KAYO NG ISA.

This time choose the next President of the country. Here is a list of those planning to run for President. If you were to choose
today, who shall it be?


IV. PREFERENCE FOR VICE PRESIDENT
Sample size: 2,400

OVERALL RESULT
Rating
RANKING/CANDIDATES
(%)

1 Sen. Manuel “Mar” ROXAS 47
2 Sen. Loren “Loren”LEGARDA 25
3 Mayor Jejomar “Jojo” BINAY 11
4 Frmr MMDA Chairman Bayani “BF” FERNANDO 7
5 TV Host Eduardo “Edu” MANZANO 5
6 Dominador “Jun” CHIPECO, JR. 2
7‐8 Frmr SEC Chairman Perfecto “Kidlat” YASAY 1
7‐8 TV Host Jay “Jay Sonza” SONZA 1
Undecided 1
100

14 Aspirants 8 Candidates



OVERALL RESULTS BY SUPER REGION BY SOCIO‐ECO CLASS

LOCATION SOCIO‐ECO CLASS
BAL
VICE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES RP NCR LUZ VIZ MIN ABC D E
(%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%)

Sen. Manuel “Mar” ROXAS 47 48 43 48 48 50 39 45
Sen. Loren “Loren”LEGARDA 25 18 34 17 29 20 37 40
Mayor Jejomar “Jojo” BINAY 11 10 11 12 13 17 16 10
Frmr MMDA Chairman Bayani “BF” FERNANDO 7 12 4 12 3 8 3 2
TV Host Eduardo “Edu” MANZANO 5 6 6 5 2 3 3 2
Dominador “Jun” CHIPECO, JR. 2 4 0 2 1 0 1 1
Frmr SEC Chairman Perfecto “Kidlat” YASAY 1 1 0 2 1 0 0 0
TV Host Jay “Jay Sonza” SONZA 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0
Undecided 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0

Q144. (PREFERENCE FOR VICE PRESIDENT 8‐WAY CONTEST) Magpapakita naman po ako sa inyo ngayon ng isang listahan ng mga
kandidato sa pagka BISE PRESIDENTE ng Pilipinas. Kung kayo po ay mamimili na ngayon, sino po ang inyong pipiliin? TIGNAN
NGA PO NINYONG MABUTI ANG LISTAHAN AT PUMILI PO KAYO NG ISA.

Next I will show you a list of those planning to run for Vice President. Again, if you were to choose now, who shall that be?



V. PREREFENCE FOR SENATORS
Sample size: 2,400

BAL
RANKING/CANDIDATES (1‐33) NCR LUZ VIZ MIN
RP (%) (%) (%) (%) (%)
1. Miriam Defensor Santiago 64 69 53 69 64
2‐3. Pilar Juliana “Pia” Cayetano 50 37 45 61 57
2‐3. Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, JR. 50 66 52 38 53
4‐6. Franklin “Frank” Drilon 49 30 43 64 59
4‐6. Jinggoy Estrada 49 36 45 53 61
4‐6. Ramon Bong “Kap” Revilla, Jr. 49 47 45 62 40
7. Juan Ponce “JPE” Enrile 43 41 33 40 56
8‐9. Rozzano Rufino “Ruffy” Biazon 41 54 32 33 44
8‐9. Ralph Recto 41 18 43 54 49
10‐11 Jose “Joey” De Venecia, III 40 62 33 33 32
10‐11 Teofisto “TG” Guingona, III 40 47 29 40 42
12 Vicente “Tito” Sotto, III 38 35 43 37 37
13 Sergio “Serge” Osmeña, III 32 13 29 37 47
14 Manuel “Lito” Lapid 31 32 25 24 41
15 Jose Apolinario “Jun” Lozada, Jr. 28 37 28 24 24
16 Alexander “Pinoy” Lacson 27 34 19 13 43
17‐18 Gwendolyn “Gwen” Pimentel 20 12 13 26 30
17‐18 Sonia “Son” Roco 20 29 16 14 22
19 Francisco “Kit” Tatad 19 19 16 18 24
20 Ana Theresia “Riza Hontiveros” Baraquel 18 21 13 24 14
21‐23 Danilo “Gen. Danny” Lim 17 24 17 14 12
21‐23 Emilio Mario “Promdi” Osmeña 17 9 22 21 16
21‐23 “Gilbert” Cesar Remulla 17 9 19 24 16
24 Ariel “Marines” Querubin 16 7 20 19 17
25 Anthony Castelo 15 31 13 10 4
26‐28 Ramon “Monching” Guico, Jr. 13 11 6 6 28
26‐28 Rey Langit 13 15 16 16 5
26‐28 Ramon “Mon‐Mon” Mitra 13 4 10 14 24
29‐31 Henry Caunah 12 15 17 12 6
29‐31 Romeo “Tomagan” Maganto 12 13 21 8 5
29‐31 Richard Recto 12 15 14 12 8
32‐33 Rodrigo Cabrera 11 10 17 14 5

32‐33 Saturnino “Satur” Ocampo 11 5 13 15 9

Q145. (PREFERENCE FOR SENATOR) Sa posisyon naman po ng SENADOR NG BANSA at kung kayo po ay mamimili na ngayon, sino
po ang inyong pipiliin? TIGNAN NGA PO NINYONG MABUTI ANG LISTAHAN AT PUMILI PO KAYO NG LABING DALAWA. BANGGITIN
LANG PO ANG NUMERO.

For the position of SENATOR, and if you were to choose today, who shall you choose? Take a look at the list very well and select
not more than twelve names.


V. PREREFENCE FOR SENATORS
Sample size: 2,400

BAL
RANKING/CANDIDATES (34‐66) RP NCR LUZ VIZ MIN
(%) (%) (%) (%) (%)
34‐37 Ma. Katherine Luningning “Kata” Inocencio 10 19 8 10 3
34‐37 Ramoncito “Monching” Ocampo 10 6 8 14 10
34‐37 Adel Tamano 10 5 6 17 11
34‐37 Reginald “Regie” Tamayo 10 15 4 6 13
38‐39 Nereus “Neric”Acosta . Jr. 9 8 7 16 4
38‐39 Imelda Papin 9 7 7 11 10
40‐45 Larion “J. V.” Bautista 8 7 10 12 3
40‐45 Silvestre “Bebot” Bello, III 8 9 17 4 3
40‐45 Raul Lambino 8 2 8 15 6
40‐45 Liza Maza 8 10 8 9 4
40‐45 Rodolfo Rodrigo “Ompong” Plaza 8 4 4 7 16
40‐45 Ma. Gracia Riñosa‐Plazo 8 6 11 8 7
46‐52 Amado Calderon 7 11 7 6 3
46‐52 Rozalito “Lito” David 7 12 6 4 4
46‐52 Ma. Judea “Dea” Millora 7 8 9 7 3
46‐52 Jovito “Jovi” Palparan, Jr. 7 11 9 6 4
46‐52 Adrian Sison 7 7 4 2 12
46‐52 Hector “Tarzan” Tarrazona 7 12 4 4 9
46‐52 Alexander “Alex” Tinsay 7 14 6 4 3
53‐57 Martin Bautista 6 8 6 8 1
53‐57 Regalado “Dodong” Maambong 6 4 6 12 2
53‐57 Reynaldo “Prince” Princesa 6 4 5 12 4
53‐57 Danton Remoto 6 5 4 11 3
53‐57 Hector “Ka Hector” Villanueva 6 0 13 6 4
58‐60 Zafrullah “Noldy” Alonto 5 2 12 4 1
58‐60 Alma Lood 5 4 8 4 3
58‐60 Susan “Toots” Ople 5 3 4 6 7
61‐65 “Shariff” Ibrahim Albani 3 1 4 3 2
61‐65 Jo Aurea “Ate Jo” Imbong 3 6 2 2 1
61‐65 Yasmin Lao 3 4 6 2 1
61‐65 Zosimo Jesus “Jess” Paredes, II 3 3 3 3 2
61‐65 Manuel “Manny” Valdehuesa, Jr. 3 3 2 3 2

66 Israel “Dr. Israel” Virgines 2 5 3 0 0

Q145. (PREFERENCE FOR SENATOR) Sa posisyon naman po ng SENADOR NG BANSA at kung kayo po ay mamimili na ngayon, sino
po ang inyong pipiliin? TIGNAN NGA PO NINYONG MABUTI ANG LISTAHAN AT PUMILI PO KAYO NG LABING DALAWA. BANGGITIN
LANG PO ANG NUMERO.

For the position of SENATOR, and if you were to choose today, who shall you choose? Take a look at the list very well and select
not more than twelve names.

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GRAPHIC‐STRATPOLLS SURVEY January 2010

Preference for President

OPINION POLL ON CRITERIA USED

Preference for President

Principled person 62 61.75 66.56 62.05 57.85

Cheating in the 2004 and 2007elections 58 84.19 57.42 54.21 36.77

Sen. Benigno “Noynoy” AQUINO III 36 40 34 36 32 24 40 43

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