Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Periode
MAD
MSE
Periode
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
3
43.88889
2272.931
Actual
10
12
53
65
75
45
67
74
62
64
65
68
Simple Mov
Error
80
70
17.66667
21.66667
25
15
22.33333
24.66667
20.66667
21.33333
21.66667
47.33333
53.33333
20
52
51.66667
37.33333
43.33333
43.66667
46.33333
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1
Actual 10
5
Actual 10 12
7
Forecast
10
Simple
Moving
Average
Ft
= Forecast
for period t (or the
coming
p
= Number
of periods to be averaged
A t -1 Actual demand
in period t - 1 (or the
Ft
A t 1 A t 2 A t 3 ... A t - p
p
Mean Absolute
Deviation
(MAD)
t = Period number
A = Actual demand
for the period
F = Forecast
demand
for the
n = Total number
of periods
n
A t Ft
MAD
Mean
Square
t 1
n
Error
MSE
A
t 1
Ft
n 1
(MSE)
period
period)
previous
period)