ST 430/514

Introduction to Regression Analysis/Statistics for Management and the Social Sciences II

Inverse Prediction
One use of a regression model
E (Y ) = 0 + 1 x
is to predict Y for a new x, x0 .
Sometimes, instead, we observe a new y0 , and want to make an
inference about the new x0 .
Often x is expensive to measure, but Y is cheap; the relationship is
determined from a calibration dataset.

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Special Topics

Inverse Prediction

ST 430/514
Introduction to Regression Analysis/Statistics for Management and the Social Sciences II

Because
y0 = 0 + 1 x0 + 0 ,
we can solve for x0 :
x0 =

y0 0 0
.
1

We do not observe 0 , but we know that E (0 ) = 0.

Similarly, we do not know 0 and 1 , but we have estimates 0 and
1 .

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Special Topics

Inverse Prediction

ST 430/514
Introduction to Regression Analysis/Statistics for Management and the Social Sciences II

This suggests the estimate

x0 =

y0 0
.
1

This is known as inverse prediction.

An approximate 100(1 )% prediction interval for x0 is:
s
s
x x)2
1 (
x0 t/2
1+ +
.
n
SSxx
1

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Inverse Prediction

ST 430/514
Introduction to Regression Analysis/Statistics for Management and the Social Sciences II

An alternative approach is to fit the inverse regression:

x = 0 + 1 y + .
Then use the standard prediction interval
s
1 (y0 y )2
x0 t/2 sx|y 1 + +
n
SSyy
where
x0 = 0 + 1 y0 .
This is not supported by the standard theory, because, in the
calibration data, x is fixed and y is random.
But it has been shown to work well in practice.
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Special Topics

Inverse Prediction