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PENGOLAHAN
Energy
Crude Oil
Refinery
Produk Yang Laku
dijual (usable)
Biaya
Investasi
Loss
Fuel Gas
& Oil
2
Aviation
Refiner
y
Product
Tankag
e
Product
Shippin
g
Retail
Transport
Distributio
n Terminal
Marine
Value Creation:
Crude Slade / Product Yield
Technology & Catalyst selection
Severity of Operation
Blending Optimization
Energy &Loss Efficiency
Cost Efficiency
Inbound Logistic
Crude Supply
Processing
Outbound Logistic
Product Distribution
Retail Distribution
ValueAdded
Time
Place &
Form
Utility
In-Transit
Customer
Order
Cycle
Raw
Material
Stock
Production
Cost-Added
Production, Storage & Transport Costs & The Time Costs of Money
Fig. 4.3
REALISATION/BBL
UNIT SEVERITY
MARKET PRICE/BBL
CR-OIL COST/BBL
REFINERY
MARGIN
CRUDE SLATE
CRUDE SLATE
VOLUME
MARKET
COST/BBL
PRIMARY PROCESS
SECONDARY PROCESS
PROC. COST/BBL
UTILITIES
GA
DESIGN CAPACITY
VOLUME
SUPPORT
AVAILABILITY
PAF
VOLUME LOSS
OPERATION
UTILISATION
MISI BISNIS
(REFINERY)
PROFIT
MAKS
REVENUE
KILANG
= REVENUE
MAKS
COST
= VOLUME
MAKS
x PRICE
MAKS
OPT
HIGH
COST
OPT
UPAYA-UPAYA
MEMINIMALKAN
COST
MAKS
1. REVENUE
= VOLUME
MAKS
x PRICE
HIGH
OPT
Yang
Bernilai
Ekonomis
Tinggi
Pemeliharaan
Nilai
Produk Utama
BBM
Non-BBM
KILANG
Produk Samping
Biaya
Utilitas
Bahan Bakar
Tenaga Listrik
Air
Udara
Nitrogen
10
11
Source: BP Statistics.
12
Source: BP Statistics.
13
14
Supply - Demand
China and global demand factor
Supply constraint and the (changing) role of OPEC
Refining capacity factor
Non - Fundamental
Speculation factor
Fear factor
Others
15
Fuel &
Loss: 0.2
Product
Purchase
s3
mbpd
mbpd
2 mbpd
Supply
&
Trading
Productio
n
Crude
Sales 4.5
mbpd
2.3 mbpd
2.5 mbpd
Refinin
g2.5
mbpd
Supply
&
Trading
Marketin
g Sales
3rd Party
Product
Sales 2.3
mbpd
16
3
mbpd
17
Optimasi Refinery :
Dari sisi Internal :
Operational Availability
Hydrocarbon Loss
Quality Giveaway
Innovation
Smarter Way of Doing Things
Costs
Dari sisi eksternal :
Selecting the Right Crude
Product Optimization
18
Crude Selection
Crude that maximises usage of the refinery
asset
Product Management
Better pricing of products, New product grades
Increased integration / supply
19
-10.0
Month
20
Mar-06
Jan-06
Nov-05
Sep-05
Jul-05
May-05
Mar-05
Jan-05
Nov-04
Sep-04
Jul-04
May-04
Mar-04
Jan-04
Nov-03
Sep-03
Jul-03
20.0
May-03
25.0
Mar-03
Jan-03
Nov-02
Sep-02
Jul-02
US$/bbl
30.0
Kero/Jet
Gasoil
Gasoline
Naphtha
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
-5.0
$/b
(2)
81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05
* Dubai Crude (Singapore CIF); Product prices based on Singapore FOB spot prices.
21
Hydroskimming
Cracking
2009
2015
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2011
2013
2017
* Actual up to 2005 (nominal prices), 2005$ thereafter; Cracking yield is based on RCC.
22
2019
23
DEMAND
Produksi BBM
BBM Subsidi
Premium
Premium : 17.08 Jt KL
Kerosine
: 166.5 MBCD =
Kerosine : 10.00 Jt KL
Solar (ADO)
Disel (IDO)
9.3 MBCD =
0.54 Jt KL
68.0 MBCD =
3.95 Jt KL
TOTAL
9.66 Jt KL
Solar
: 14.50 Jt KL
TOTAL
: 41.58 Jt KL
(Industri)
Premium :
0.037 Jt KL
Kerosine :
0.090 Jt KL
Solar
: 13.919 Jt KL
Disel
: 0.535 Jt KL
M. Bakar :
TOTAL
Import BBM
Satuan : Jt KL
19.64 Juta KL
24
4.715 Jt KL
: 19.30 Jt KL
25
26
Crude Distillation
Catalytic
Reforming
Catalytic Cracking
Vacuum
Distillation
Hydrocracking
27