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Distribution to
predict a Soccer
Betting Winner
By
Team 1s Offence = {Number of Goals Scored at Home Last Season / (Number of Home Matches Last
Season) X (Average Goals scored/Game at Home last Season by any club)}
Team 2s Offence = {Number of Goals Scored Away Last Season / (Number of Away Matches Last
Season) X (Average Goals scored/Game Away last Season by any club)}
Team 1s Defense = {Number of Goals conceded at Home Last Season / (Number of Home Matches
Last Season) X (Average Goals conceded/Game at Home last Season by any club)}
Team 2s Defense = {Number of Goals conceded Away Last Season / (Number of Away Matches Last
Season) X (Average Goals conceded/Game at Home last Season by any club)}
The Last Step is to use the Poisson distribution Formula to calculate the Betting/Goals Table.
P(x; ) = (e-) (x) / x!
Where = Average Goals / Game
X = Different goals outcomes (0-5) in the Random Variable (x) category
Lets assume Team 1s (Expected Value) = 1.654 Goals/Game and Team 2s Goals (Expected value) = 1.278
Goals/Game.
The below embedded excel sheet can be used to find the Probability of the number of goals scored by each
team.
For example, we want to look at chances of the match being a 2 2 Draw, we can do that as:
This also implies that in-case you place a bet on the final score line being 2-2, you have a probability of 5.95%
of winning the bet.
Similarly probabilities of all possible score-lines can be calculated.
CHOICE OF TOPIC
The two main reasons for choosing the topic Using Poisson Distribution to predict Soccer Betting Winner are:
Personal Interest
Being a football fanatic and having followed the English Premier League religiously for the past 8 or 9 years,
I was always aware that statistics plays a major part in the opinions shared by football pundits, but had never
looked into the topic in detail. Therefore it was quite interesting for me to look into the nuances of how
Poissons Distribution can be used to predict matches on the basis of a single parameter .
Therefore using the original data let us look at the probability of a 2-2 draw in case there is rain.
Probability (2-2|Rain) = Probability (Team 1s Goals = 2|Rain) X Probability (Team 2s Goals = 2|Rain)
= P (A|R) X P (B|R)
Now based on our assumption we can say N = 2 and therefore,
P (A|R) = P(A) X [1 {(20 * 2)/100}] & P (B|R) = P(B) X [1 {(20 * 2)/100}]
P (A|R) = 0.2616 * 0.6 = 0.1569 & P (B|R) = 0.2275 * 0.6 = 0.1365
Probability (2-2|Rain) = Probability (Team 1s Goals = 2|Rain) X Probability (Team 2s Goals = 2|Rain)
= 0.1569 * 0.1365
= 2.14 %
As we can see by taking external factors into consideration, the probability of a 2-2 score-line reduces
considerably. This has an important implication in soccer betting. When the number of external factors in
consideration are large, it is very difficult to come up with a predication of an exact score-line with any level of
confidence. Therefore keep your MONEY SAFE and AVOID GAMBLING.
APPENDIX 1 ARTICLE
http://www.pinnaclesports.com/en/betting-articles/soccer/how-to-calculate-poisson-distribution
Poisson Distribution, coupled with historical data, can provide a method for calculating the likely number
of goals that will be scored in a soccer match. Bettors will find this simple method of how to calculate
the likely outcome of a soccer match using Poisson Distribution very useful.
Poisson Distribution explained
Poisson Distribution is a mathematical concept for translating mean averages into a probability for variable
outcomes. For example, Chelsea might average 1.7 goals per game. Entering this information into a Poisson
formula would show that this average equates to Chelsea scoring 0 goals 18.3% of the time, 1 goal 31% of the
time, 2 goals 26.4% of the time and 3 goals 15% of the time.
How to calculate soccer outcomes with Poisson Distribution
Before we can use Poisson to calculate the likely outcome of a match, we need to calculate the average number
of goals each team is likely to score in that match. This can be calculated determining an Attack and Defence
Strength for each team and comparing them.
Selecting a representative data range is vital when calculating Attack and Defence strengths too long and the
data will not be relevant for the teams current strength, while too short may allow outliers to skew the data. For
this analysis were using the 38 games played by each team in the 2013/14 EPL season.
The difference from the above average is what constitutes a teams Attack Strength.
Well also need the average number of goals an average team concedes. This is simply the inverse of the above
numbers (as the number of goals a home team scores will equal the same number that an away team concedes):
We can now use the numbers above to calculate the Attack and Defence Strength of both Manchester United
and Swansea City for their match on August 16th, 2014.
Predicting Man Uniteds Goals
Calculate Man Uniteds Attack Strength:
1. Take the number of goals scored at home last season by the home team (Man United: 29) and divide
by the number of home games (29/19): 1.526
2. Divide this value by the seasons average home goals scored per game (1.526/1.574), to get the Attack
Strength: 0.970. This shows that Man United scored 3.05% fewer goals at home than a hypothetical
average Premier League side last season.
Calculate Swanseas Defence Strength:
1. Take the number of goals conceded away last season by the away team (Swansea: 28) and divide by
the number of away games (28/19): 1.474.
2. Divide this by the seasons average goals conceded by an away team per game (1.474/1.574) to get the
Defence Strength: 0.936. This therefore highlights Swansea conceded 6.35% fewer goals than an
average Premier League side on the road.
We can now use the following formula to calculate the likely number of goals the home team might score:
Man Uniteds Goals = Man Uniteds Attack x Swanseas Defence x Average No. Goals
In this case, thats 0.970* 0.936 * 1.574, which equates to United scoring 1.429 goals.
Predicting Swanseas Goals
Calculate Swanseas Attack Strength:
1. Take the number of goals scored away last season by the away team (Swansea: 21) and divide by the
number of away games (21/19): 1.105
2. Divide this value by the seasons average away goals scored per game (1.105/1.195), to get the Attack
Strength: 0.925. This shows that Swansea scored 7.53% fewer away goals than a hypothetical average
Premier League side.
Calculate Man Uniteds Defence Strength:
1. Take the number of goals conceded at home last season by the home team (Man United: 21) and divide
by the number of home games (21/19): 1.105.
2. Divide this by the seasons average goals conceded by a home team per game (1.105/1.195) to get the
Defence Strength: 0.925. Man United conceded 7.53% more goals than an average Premier League
side at home.
We can now use the following formula to calculate the likely number of goals the away team might score:
Swanseas Goals = Swanseas Attack x Man Uniteds Defence x Average No. Goals
In this case, thats 0.925* 0.925 * 1.195, which equates to Swansea scoring 1.022 goals.
Poisson Distribution betting Predicting multiple match outcomes
Of course, no game ends 1.429 vs. 1.022 this is simply the average. Poisson Distribution, a formula created
by French mathematician Simeon Denis Poisson, allows us to use these figures to distribute 100% of probability
across a range of goal outcomes for each side. The results are shown in the table below:
The formula itself looks like this: P(x; ) = (e-) (x) / x!, however, we can use online tools such as this Poisson
Distribution Calculator to do most of the equation for us.
All we need to do is enter the different goals outcomes (0-5) in the Random Variable (x) category, and the
likelihood of a team scoring (for instance, Swansea at 1.022) in the average rate of success, and the calculator
will output the probability of that score.
Poisson Distribution for Man United vs. Swansea
Goals
Man United
23.95%
34.23%
24.46%
11.65%
4.16%
1.19%
Swansea
35.99%
36.78%
18.79%
6.40%
1.64%
0.33%
This example shows that there is a 23.95% chance that Man Utd will not score, but a 34.23% chance they will
get a single goal and a 24.46% chance theyll score two.
Swansea, on the other hand, are at 35.99% not to score, 36.78% to score one and 18.79% to score two.
Hoping for a side to score five? The probability is 1.19% if United are the scorers, or 0.33% for Swansea to do
it.
As both scores are independent (mathematically-speaking), you can see that the expected score is 1 1. If you
multiply the two probabilities together, youll get the probability of the 1-1 outcome 0.125 or 12.59%.
Now you know how to calculate outcomes, you should compare your result to a bookmakers odds to help see
how they differentiate.
Example: comparing the draw
The above example showed us that a 1-1 draw has a 12.59% chance of occurring, according to our model. But
what if you wanted to bet on the draw, rather than on individual score outcomes? Youd need to calculate the
probability for all of the different draw scorelines 0-0, 1-1, 2-2, 3-3, 4-4, 5-5 etc.
To do this, simply calculate the probability of all possible draw combinations and add them together. This will
give you the chance of a draw occurring, regardless of the score.
Of course, there are actually an infinite number of draw possibilities (both sides could score 10 goals each, for
example), but the chances of a draw above 5-5 are so small that its safe to disregard them for this model.
For the United Swansea game, combining all of the draws gives a probability of 0.266 or 26.6%. Pinnacle
Sports odds were 5.530 (an 18.08% implied probability).
Therefore if last seasons form was a perfect indicator of this seasons results, there would appear to be value
in backing the draw, as the model shows that it more likely to happen than the Pinnacle Sports odds suggest.
Unfortunately it isnt as simple as that, which is why pure Poisson analysis has limitations.
The limits of Poisson Distribution
Poisson Distribution is a simple predictive model that doesnt allow for a lot of factors. Situational factors such
as club circumstances, game status etc. and subjective evaluation of the change of each team during the
transfer window are completely ignored.
In this case, it means the huge x-factor of Manchester Uniteds first Premier League game with new manager
Louis Van Gaal is entirely ignored.
Correlations are also ignored; such as the widely recognised pitch affect that shows certain matches have a
tendency to be either high or low scoring.
These are particularly important areas in lower league games, which can give punters an edge against
bookmakers, while its harder to gain an edge in major leagues, given the expertise that modern bookmakers
like Pinnacle Sports possess.