STORM SURGE MODELING

Md. Mohiuddin Sakib

Objective of Storm Surge Modeling

To provide:
Inundation Image
Polder Overtopping Map

Model Domain

Bay of
Bengal

Grid Properties:

Grid

Maximum Orthogonality = 0.67

Maximum Grid Resolution =
1408 m
Minimum Grid Resolution = 222
m
M smoothness = 1.21(maximum)
N smoothness = 1.02 (maximum)
Maximum M size = 1164 m
Minimum M size = 263 m
Maximum N size = 1704 m
Minimum N size = 186 m
Maximum Aspect Ratio = 1.93

Bathymetry

Figure : Bathymetry with polder in the study region

Boundary Condition
Ganges: Discharge
station at Hardinge
Brahmaputra:
Discharge
Bridge
station at Bahadurabad
Meghna: Discharge
station at Bhairab Bazar

Ocean Boundary: NAOTIDE (for validation)

GCOMS ( for scenario)

Model
Calibration

Water Level data from our model is then compared with

BIWTA measured data
Reliability of our each model run is calculated from the
following equation

Reference: Haque, A., Salehin, M., Rahman, M., Sumaiya, Kabir, R.,
Alam, S., Rezaie, A.M., Ahmed, I., Ahmed, H., Kadir, N., Jisan, M.A.,
Reliability analysis of dynamic models, in writing for the Journal:

Model Calibration and Validation

Scenario
Scenario Scenario
No.
Description

Snapshots

Upstream Discharge
Boundary
(Has provided by Paul
Whitehead)

Q8 + LS +
A1B
Temp+2.620C
SLR 0.26m

3a
5

Same as 3. Decrease the polder heights by 1m.

Q16 + MS + Maximum
Q16 + MS
A1B
discharge year Hourly time series data
0
Temp +2.64 C (2040 2060)
Snapshot
SLR 0.26m
2052
Maximum Discharge Year

5a

Same as 5. Increase the polder height by 1m.

Downstream Sea Level

Boundary
(Will be provided by
Susan Kay)

Maximum
Q8 + LS
Q8 + LS + A1B
discharge year Hourly time series
data
Hourly time series data
(2040-2060)
Snapshot
Snapshot
2047
Maximum Discharge
Year Maximum Discharge Year
Q16 + MS + A1B
Hourly time series data
Snapshot
Maximum Discharge Year

Inundation Image(Delft3D
format)

Scenario 3_sidr

Scenario 3a_sidr

Scenario
3_Aila

Scenario
3a_Aila

Scenario 3_Aila(Sidr like

landfall)

Scenario 3a_Aila(Sidr like

landfall)

Inundation Image(Delft3D
format)

Scenario 5_sidr

Scenario 5a_sidr

Scenario
5_Aila

Scenario
5a_Aila

Scenario 5_Aila(Sidr like

landfall)

Scenario 5a_Aila(Sidr like

landfall)

Inundation Image(ArcGIS format)

Inundation Image(ArcGIS format)

Polder Overtopping Map

Polder Overtopping Map

Inundation and Polder Overtopping Image For SIDR like

Cyclone in Future

Inundation Image(Delft3D format)

Original SIDR_2007

SIDR like cyclone at mid century SIDR like cyclone at end century

Inundation Image(ArcGIS format)

Original SIDR_2007

SIDR like cyclone at mid century SIDR like cyclone at end century

Polder Overtopping Map

Original SIDR_2007

SIDR like cyclone at mid century SIDR like cyclone at end century

Sundarban As a Buffer Against Storm

Surge Flooding

Scenario
Table 1: Scenarios used to describe
Sundarban as a buffer
Scenarios
Scenario - 1

Capacity of Sundarban to
act as a buffer against storm
surge inundation
100%

Scenario - 2

85%

Scenario - 3

50%

Scenario - 4

25%

Scenario - 5

0%

Capacity of Sundarban as a buffer against the storm surge

inundation is calculated based on relative roughness of different
zones of Sundarban.
For scenario-1, the entire Sundarban is effective to act as a buffer
against the storm surge inundation.
For scenario-5, Sundarban is not all effective as a buffer against
the storm surge inundation.
The rest of the scenarios lie in between these two extremes.

Influence Zone for SIDR

Inundation Image for Exact SIDR

Inundation Image for SIDR like Cyclone at Sundarban

Inundation Area

Inundation Depth

THANK YOU