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A mixture of landlines and cell phones were surveyed. Results were weighed
by language, age and gender based on the 2011 Canadian Census.
A2
"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright.
The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished
with full and proper credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia.
A3
"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright.
The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished
with full and proper credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia.
Alberta will be the most interesting province to follow on election night as the province wide
picture masks some interesting regional races in both Calgary and Edmonton. The NDP surge that
began with a victory for Rachel Notley's NDP here may have come to an end, but there are still
pockets of strength in Edmonton. Expect both the Liberals and the NDP to make gains in Alberta
but we still expect the vast majority of seats here to remain Conservative.
In Saskatchewan we find a continued lead by the Conservatives and the NDP continue in second
place, with some signs of life for the surging Liberals. We would expect to see competitive races
mostly in the Saskatoon and Regina ridings, with the Conservatives largely dominating rural
Saskatchewan.
Manitoba is another Province where we expect the Liberals to make significant gains, they
continue to close on the leading Conservatives and break away from a sagging NDP. Expect some
big upsets here on October 19th based on what we are seeing today, a few weeks out from
election day, he finished.
-30About Mainstreet Research
Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian
public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of public
opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta (2015), a majority Liberal
government in British Columbia, and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Most recently,
Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of Novembers Toronto mayoral election.
-30Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
For more information: David Valentin, (613) 698-5524 - david@mainstreetresearch.ca
A4
37%
24%
29%
4%
7%
CONSERVATIVE
37% +6%
NDP
24% -6%
LIBERAL
29% BLOC QUBECOIS 4% -%
GREEN PARTY
7% +1%
CPC
NPD
LPC
BQ
GPC
CONSERVATIVE
NDP
LIBERAL
BLOC QUBECOIS
GREEN PARTY
BC
29%
33%
28%
x
10%
AB
67%
12%
17%
x
4%
SK
49%
29%
17%
x
5%
MB
45%
17%
35%
x
3%
ON
42%
18%
32%
x
8%
QC Atlantic
21%
22%
32%
29%
27%
44%
16%
x
5%
6%
A5
CONSERVATIVE (CPC)
NDP
LIBERAL (LPC)
BLOC QUBECOIS (BQ)
GREEN PARTY (GPC)
UNDECIDED (UD)
CONSERVATIVE
NDP
LIBERAL
BLOC QUBECOIS
GREEN PARTY
UNDECIDED
SAMPLE
CONSERVATIVE
NDP
LIBERAL
BLOC QUBECOIS
GREEN PARTY
UNDECIDED
SAMPLE
CONSERVATIVE
NDP
LIBERAL
BLOC QUBECOIS
GREEN PARTY
UNDECIDED
18-34
29%
24%
23%
4%
9%
12%
436
BC
25%
28%
24%
x
9%
13%
794
35-49
33%
20%
22%
3%
5%
17%
976
AB
61%
11%
16%
x
4%
9%
459
50-64
31%
18%
27%
3%
5%
15%
1754
SK
37%
23%
15%
x
3%
21%
583
Certain
35%
19%
24%
3%
5%
13%
MB
38%
12%
30%
x
2%
18%
626
Likely
23%
24%
23%
3%
10%
18%
32%
20%
24%
3%
6%
15%
+6%
-4%
+1%
-3%
QC Atlantic
18%
19%
21%
27%
23% 35%
x
13%
5%
4%
20%
13%
411
1034
Might
17%
14%
38%
0%
2%
29%
Unlikely
6%
26%
12%
7%
10%
40%
32%
20%
24%
3%
6%
15%
A6
CPC
NDP
LPC
BQ
GPC
UD
A7
British Columbia
Alberta
Saskatchewan
Manitoba
A8
Ontario
Qubec
Regional Margins of Error:
Ontario +/- 2.73%
Quebec +/- 3.05%
Atlantic +/- 4.83%
Atlantic
A9
23%
29%
4%
7%
CONSERVATIVE
NDP
LIBERAL
BLOC QUBECOIS
GREEN PARTY
38%
CONSERVATIVE
38% +6%
NDP
23% -6%
LIBERAL
29% BLOC QUBECOIS 4% GREEN PARTY
7% -
CPC
NDP
LPC
BQ
GPC
BC
29%
32%
28%
x
11%
AB
67%
12%
17%
x
4%
SK
47%
29%
19%
x
5%
MB
46%
15%
36%
x
3%
ON
43%
18%
31%
x
8%
QC Atlantic
22%
22%
32%
27%
27%
44%
15%
x
5%
6%
A10
13%
15%
51%
15%
5%
2%
CONSERVATIVE
NDP
LIBERAL
BLOC QUBECOIS
GREEN PARTY
UNDECIDED
CONSERVATIVE
NDP
LIBERAL
BLOC QUBECOIS
GREEN PARTY
UNDECIDED
BC
13%
22%
11%
x
3%
51%
AB
7%
6%
3%
x
3%
81%
35-49
23%
18%
9%
3%
3%
42%
SK
27%
14%
3%
x
3%
53%
50-64
12%
10%
18%
1%
5%
51%
MB
7%
15%
3%
x
5%
69%
65+
11%
10%
17%
2%
5%
57%
ON
18%
12%
22%
x
7%
41%
Male Female
13%
13%
16%
14%
14%
16%
1%
3%
4%
5%
51%
51%
QC Atlantic
5%
7%
16%
17%
13%
13%
10%
x
4%
6%
52%
63%
A11
Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you wil
change you mind before the next election?
CONSERVATIVE
STRONG
MIGHT CHANGE MIND
DONT KNOW
82%
15%
3%
NDP
STRONG
MIGHT CHANGE MIND
DONT KNOW
69%
25%
6%
LIBERAL
STRONG
MIGHT CHANGE MIND
DONT KNOW
63%
29%
8%
A12
10%
34%
24%
4%
9%
20%
CPC
NDP
LPC
BQ
GPC
UD
A13
Do you think the number of immigrants coming to Canada has increased or decreased in the
last few years?
22%
44%
13%
21%
Increased
INCREASED
STAYED THE SAME
DECREASED
NOT SURE
SAMPLE
INCREASED
STAYED THE SAME
DECREASED
NOT SURE
SAMPLE
BC
37%
22%
18%
23%
794
AB
57%
20%
6%
17%
459
Decreased
35-49
46%
19%
13%
22%
976
SK
59%
18%
5%
18%
583
Not Sure
50-64
39%
22%
15%
23%
1754
MB
58%
21%
5%
16%
626
QC Atlantic
40%
53%
24%
18%
17%
15%
19%
14%
1034
411
A14
19%
55%
25%
APPROVE: 55%
DISAPPROVE: 25%
18-34
29%
17%
19%
17%
18%
436
STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE
SAMPLE
STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE
SAMPLE
BC
36%
25%
12%
9%
18%
794
AB
23%
25%
18%
17%
18%
459
35-49
32%
29%
9%
11%
18%
976
SK
24%
24%
18%
16%
18%
583
50-64
31%
29%
12%
11%
18%
1754
MB
22%
25%
19%
17%
17%
626
QC Atlantic
30%
25%
29%
25%
13%
11%
11%
28%
16%
11%
1034
411
A15
And in your opinion, should immigration be kept at its current level, increased or decreased?
9%
33%
30%
28%
Increased
Decreased
18-34
34%
31%
28%
7%
436
INCREASED
DECREASED
KEEPING AT CURRENT LEVEL
NOT SURE
SAMPLE
INCREASED
STAYED THE SAME
DECREASED
NOT SURE
SAMPLE
BC
39%
27%
24%
10%
794
AB
23%
38%
25%
15%
459
35-49
31%
28%
32%
9%
976
SK
18%
37%
21%
23%
583
50-64
33%
27%
31%
9%
1754
MB
32%
38%
18%
12%
626
Not Sure
65+ Male Female
34% 33%
33%
26% 29%
27%
29% 31%
29%
11%
8%
10%
2031 2373 2824
ON
32%
24%
35%
8%
1290
QC Atlantic
38%
34%
24%
38%
32%
22%
6%
6%
1034
411
A16
Recently there has been discussion about the Niqab, a veil worn by some Muslim women
which covers the face apart from the eyes. Some have argued Musim women should not be
able to wear the Niqab during citizenship ceremonies saying it is uncanadian. Others have
argued they should be able to and that the government should not tell women what to wear
or not. In your opinion, should the Niqab be allowed at citizenship ceremonies, or not?
13%
27%
61%
Yes
Not Sure
18-34
27%
57%
16%
436
YES
NO
NOT SURE
SAMPLE
YES
NO
NOT SURE
SAMPLE
No
BC
27%
63%
10%
794
AB
29%
58%
13%
459
35-49
26%
61%
12%
976
SK
23%
56%
21%
583
50-64
27%
63%
10%
1754
MB
23%
68%
9%
626
QC Atlantic
12%
29%
70%
58%
18%
13%
1034
411
A17
If Conservative Leader Stephen Harper wins the most seats in the election but not a majority,
do you think he should be able to govern or should the opposition parties defeat his
government?
16%
42%
42%
Harper Government
Opposition Government
18-34
32%
51%
17%
436
BC
34%
47%
19%
794
35-49
49%
37%
14%
976
AB
75%
18%
7%
459
Not Sure
50-64
42%
43%
15%
1754
SK
37%
41%
21%
583
MB
ON QC ATL
38% 41% 38% 23%
44% 43% 50% 46%
18% 16% 12% 31%
626 1290 1034 411
A18
If a minority government is elected and defeated in the House of Commons, in your opinion
what should happen next? Should there be a new election or should the governor general give
a different party an opportunity to form government?
26%
26%
47%
New Election
NEW ELECTION
GIVE NEW PARTY A CHANCE
NOT SURE
SAMPLE
NEW ELECTION
GIVE NEW PARTY A CHANCE
NOT SURE
SAMPLE
BC
25%
49%
25%
794
AB
39%
30%
32%
459
35-49
30%
45%
25%
976
SK
40%
29%
31%
583
Not Sure
50-64
29%
49%
22%
1754
MB
39%
28%
32%
626
QC Atlantic
25%
24%
49%
56%
27%
21%
1034
411
A19
And would you approve or disapprove of a coalition government of the Liberals and NDP
led by Tom Mulcair?
14%
42%
44%
APPROVE: 42%
DISAPPROVE: 44%
18-34
25%
20%
18%
25%
12%
436
STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE
SAMPLE
STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE
SAMPLE
BC
24%
21%
15%
24%
16%
794
AB
9%
13%
20%
49%
8%
459
35-49
23%
21%
14%
26%
15%
976
SK
9%
12%
21%
48%
9%
583
50-64
23%
18%
17%
26%
16%
1754
MB
8%
12%
23%
47%
9%
626
QC Atlantic
26%
46%
24%
19%
20%
13%
18%
14%
12%
8%
1034
411
A20
And would you approve or disapprove of a coalition government of the NDP and Liberals
led by Justin Trudeau?
11%
45%
44%
APPROVE: 45%
DISAPPROVE: 44%
18-34
16%
32%
17%
27%
8%
436
STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE
SAMPLE
STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE
SAMPLE
BC
24%
23%
16%
25%
13%
794
AB
13%
16%
18%
47%
7%
459
35-49
25%
18%
16%
28%
13%
976
SK
12%
16%
17%
49%
6%
583
QC Atlantic
25%
48%
27%
21%
18%
11%
22%
17%
7%
4%
1034
411
A21
A22
Do you think the number of immigrants coming to Canada has increased or decreased in the
last few years?
Increased
Stayed The Same
Decreased
Not Sure
Thinking about Canadas immigration system, do you approve or disapprove of making family
reunification a priority?
Strongly approve
Somewhat approve
Somewhat disapprove
Strongly disapprove
Not sure
And in your opinion, should immigration be kept at its current level, increased or decreased?
Increased
Decreased
Keeping It At Its Current Level
Not Sure
Recently there has been discussion about the Niqab, a veil worn by some Muslim women
which covers the face apart from the eyes. Some have argued Musim women should not be
able to wear the Niqab during citizenship ceremonies saying it is uncanadian. Others have
argued they should be able to and that the government should not tell women what to wear or
not. In your opinion, should the Niqab be allowed at citizenship ceremonies, or not?
Yes
No
Not sure
If Conservative Leader Stephen Harper wins the most seats in the election but not a majority,
do you think he should be able to govern or should the opposition parties defeat his
government?
Stephen Harper should govern if he wins the most seats but not a majority
The Opposition Parties should defeat his Government if he does not win a majority
Not Sure
A23
If a minority government is elected and defeated in the House of Commons, in your opinion
what should happen next? Should there be a new election or should the governor general give
a different party an opportunity to form government?
A New Election
The Governor General should give a different party a chance to form Government
Not Sure
And would you approve or disapprove of a coalition government of the Liberals and NDP led
by Tom Mulcair?
Strongly approve
Somewhat approve
Somewhat disapprove
Strongly disapprove
Not sure
And would you approve or disapprove of a coalition government of the NDP and Liberals led
by Justin Trudeau?
Strongly approve
Somewhat approve
Somewhat disapprove
Strongly disapprove
Not sure
Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all
three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator
on Canadian public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta (2015), a majority
Liberal government in British Columbia, and a majority Liberal government in Ontario.
Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of Novembers Toronto mayoral
election.
WEBSITE
mainstreetresearch.ca
TWITTER
@MainStResearch
FACEBOOK
fb.com/mainstresearch