Swing Riding Polls

NATIONAL OBSERVER
OCTOBER 6, 2015

NATIONAL OBSERVER SWING SEAT POLL: OCTOBER 2015 |

METHODOLOGY
Environics was commissioned by the National Observer to conduct telephone
surveys of over 600 eligible voters in each of three federal ridings across
Canada between October 2 and 5, 2015. The sample sizes and margins of
error for each individual riding are described on the following page.
The research was conducted using Interactive Voice Response (IVR)
technology and the findings were weighted by age and gender to reflect the
demographic makeup of the electorate. Listed phone numbers in each riding
were randomly contacted to take part in the survey. Cell phone numbers are
not directory listed or linked to street addresses, therefore they cannot be
assigned to individual ridings for research purposes at this localized level.
The survey explored vote intention in the upcoming federal election. In each
riding, the names of nominated local candidates were read.

NATIONAL OBSERVER SWING SEAT POLL: OCTOBER 2015 |

Methodology
Riding

Field dates

Sample size

Margin of error*

Essex

Oct. 2-4

655

3.8

London West

Oct. 2-4

1,132

2.9

Kenora

Oct. 2-5

647

3.8

*plus or minus, 19 times out of 20

NATIONAL OBSERVER SWING SEAT POLL: OCTOBER 2015 |

FEDERAL VOTE INTENTION - ESSEX

The NDP and Conservatives are locked in a dead heat with
the Liberals a distant third in Essex
Q5 If the federal election were held today, who would you vote for here in the riding of Essex?
Q6 Even though you are undecided, is there a candidate you might be leaning towards supporting in your riding?

All voters

34%

Decided voters

37%

Election 2011
results
NDP/Ramsey

35%

38%

35%
CPC/Watson

20%3% 8%

22% 4%

48%

Liberal/Festeryga

Green/Alderson

14% 2%
Undecided/dk/na

NATIONAL OBSERVER SWING SEAT POLL: OCTOBER 2015 |

FEDERAL VOTE INTENTION: LONDON WEST

The Liberals and Conservatives are locked in a dead heat
with the NDP a distant third in London West
Q5 If the federal election were held today, who would you vote for here in the riding of Essex?
Q6 Even though you are undecided, is there a candidate you might be leaning towards supporting in your riding?

All voters

Decided voters

Election 2011
results
NDP/Rowlinson

19%

20%

37% 5%

38%

25%
CPC/Holder

33% 5% 8%

34%

45%
Liberal/Young

Green/Lascaris

27% 3%
Undecided/dk/na

NATIONAL OBSERVER SWING SEAT POLL: OCTOBER 2015 |

FEDERAL VOTE INTENTION - KENORA

Conservative Greg Rickford leads with 40% over a perfectly
split opposition
Q5 If the federal election were held today, who would you vote for here in the riding of Essex?
Q6 Even though you are undecided, is there a candidate you might be leaning towards supporting in your riding?

All voters

Decided voters

Election 2011
results
NDP/Hampton

27%

36%

29%

40%

28%
CPC/Rickford

25% 3%7%

47%
Liberal/Nault

Green/McKillop

28% 4%

22% 3%
Undecided/dk/na

NATIONAL OBSERVER SWING SEAT POLL: OCTOBER 2015 |

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION OR QUESTIONS CONTACT:

Jenny Uechi, National Observer
Email: jenny@nationalobserver.com
Telephone: 604-346-5227

FOR MEDIA INQUIRIES ONLY REGARDING POLLING

METHODOLOGY:
Sarah Roberton
Email: sarah.roberton@environics.ca
Telephone: 613-230-5089 ext. 224

NATIONAL OBSERVER SWING SEAT POLL: OCTOBER 2015 |