Professional Documents
Culture Documents
David H. Shinn
Elliott School of International Affairs
George Washington University
In the post-World War II era, the Horn of Africa has consistently been the most
conflicted corner of the world. That is a bold assertion, but hear me out and then tell me
if there is another region of the world that has consistently been more conflicted.
Ethiopia, Somalia and Eritrea recovered from wartime Italian military occupation
only to confront soon thereafter a series of internal and inter-state conflicts. In the case
of Ethiopia, this included a rebellion in Eritrea province, the violent overthrow of the
Haile Selassie government by a military junta followed by an expanded internal war that
in 1991 removed the military government that had deposed Haile Selassie. This event
coincided with the hard fought independence of Eritrea from Ethiopia.
A bloody border war then broke out between Eritrea and Ethiopia in 1998.
Although it ended two years later, it did not resolve the border disagreement and the
leadership in the two countries remain implacably at odds. The government of Ethiopia
faces opposition from elements of several armed ethnic groups clamoring for more
political power or even independence. There is also a growing Eritrean exile community
opposed to the government in Asmara.
Somalia engaged in periodic conflict with Ethiopia and occupied nearly a quarter
of the country in the late 1970s before Somalia collapsed and became a failed state in
1991. Somalia has been in constant turmoil ever since; the northwest part of the country
—Somaliland—declared independence but no country has recognized its status. The
weak Somali Transitional Federal Government faces a severe threat from an extremist
organization allied with al-Qaeda. The government’s lack of control over most of the
country has resulted in the worst outbreak of high seas piracy in the Gulf of Aden and
Indian Ocean since the days of the Barbary Coast pirates.
The north-south civil war began in Sudan in the mid-1950s and continued until
1972. It resumed in 1983 and did not end until 20 years later. As soon as northern and
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southern Sudan achieved a cease fire, conflict stemming from political marginalization
and scarce resources broke out in Darfur that continues to the present day. There has also
been conflict in eastern Sudan as a result of political marginalization, which could flare
up again at any time.
Tiny Djibouti has experienced the least amount of conflict, but even it faces
opposition from elements of an ethnic minority that periodically attacks the central
government.
All of these countries, except Djibouti, have a long history of supporting dissident
groups in neighboring countries for their own perceived advantage. This tit-for-tat
activity poses an additional challenge to stability and security. Today, support for these
opposition groups is especially troublesome in Ethiopia, Eritrea and Somalia. As
elections in Sudan take place next month and a referendum on an independent southern
Sudan takes place early next year, Sudan may once again find itself either confronting
dissident groups supported from neighboring countries or even supporting dissident
groups in neighboring countries.
Add to this situation a more recent overlay of international terrorist activity
centered in Somalia. Al Shabaab, an organization linked to al-Qaeda, has become well
established in Somalia. Several non-Somalis involved in the 1998 bombings of U.S.
embassies in Kenya and Tanzania took refuge in Somalia. One of them may be leading
al-Shabaab. Al-Shabaab’s tactics include political assassinations and suicide bombings.
Al-Shabaab has even recruited for its campaign in Somalia a couple dozen young
Somalis from the diaspora in the United States.
I should mention an additional potential challenge to stability in the region.
Sudan, Ethiopia and Eritrea are among the 10 Nile Basin riparian states that contribute
water to the Nile or rely on it for water. Egypt derives 95 percent of its fresh water from
the Nile. Ethiopian tributaries provide 86 percent of the water that reaches the Aswan
dam. All Nile water flows through Sudan en route to Egypt. And there is not yet an
understanding among all 10 riparian states on future use of the water.
I rest my case; the Horn of Africa has been the most conflicted corner of the
world since the end of World War II and this situation is not likely to change any time
soon.
You may be wondering why has there been so much conflict and instability in the
Horn of Africa over the past sixty years or so. There are many reasons. While most of
the causes of conflict in the Horn exist in many other parts of the world, I doubt that as
many of them occur elsewhere with such frequency or persistency.
The officials, both colonial and local rulers, who delineated the borders in the
Horn generally did so in an arbitrary fashion, often dividing ethnic groups. The borders
are not only arbitrary but they are porous; one can easily cross them undetected. They
invite conflict. Small arms are readily available throughout the Horn, especially in
Somalia, and they move from one country to another with ease. Easy access to these
weapons increases the lethality of conflict when it breaks out.
The Horn is located on a religious fault line. Sudan is about 70 percent Muslim,
up to 10 percent Christian while the remaining Sudanese follow traditional African
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