From: Daniel Gagnie| Date: October 12,2015 at 1041-25 AM GMT-4 To: @tanscanadacom>, Bivanscanada com>, ‘gtranscanada com>, < e@tanscanadacom>, transcanadacon> Subject: October 20th- ‘Always dificult even at this stage to predic whats likely to happen on Oct 13 and who wil wake up withthe tought “oh my god I am stil er Lam the Prime Minster of Canada’. The minority government Scenarios are aso complicating factors but stn two sections below some general advice which might be helpful ‘Election Night and the Moming After The transition process is much easier fora returning goverrment. For he Liberal ar NDP they wil have ‘areal awakening on the 20th wth a ist of things to do: 1L Engaging the Gere ofthe Privy Cound 2 Senior PMO appointments 3.Organization of your Ministy- how mary Ministries. Who willbe senior ministers given surprises of ‘ection retums.Parlamentary Secretaries ad Junior ministers can watt later. 4 Cabinet decision-making procest-much ofthis in stiled except how the new PM will want to organize the governance relationship between the PMO and the Ministries 5. What to do withthe Senate? Necessary issue in order to get futur legislation passed, 6 Eally Key Appointments ‘The peri from October 10th othe swearing-in of» government [November 5:5) requires intense scheduling and effective decsion-making. tly briefings will be determined by an intensive international ‘agends of meetings in Ocober/Novernber. These inch 1L November 11 Remembrance Day Ceremony 2. November 15/16 G20 in Antalya, Turkey 3 Novernber 18/19 Asa Pactic Economie Summit (APEC) Philippines 3. Novernber 27/29 Commonwealth Heads of Government (CHOGM) Mala 4 Novernber 30 COP21 (Cimate Change) Paris These events provide a robust platform for demonstating Canads's new engagement with muliatersl and bilateral relations. Certainly in a Lberal or NDP scenario the fist cal wil either be from oF to President Obama |S Tar a the window for getting tothe new minister) r the PMO the fst 20 days wil prove dificult as ‘ew Ministers are briefed by their deputies and ofa. Normal fst ime ministers fot al are cautioned about saying anything on substance nti they master their briefings and issues, Tere will also bbe mandate letters from the PM outing their priorities and scope of action.Fist Steps could include: Fecal and econamic update - Finance briefing wil ors usually an eye opene” for» new government. ‘This inbetudes fiscal plicy and expenditures os well ctx issues 2 Implementation of infrastructure and growth agenda 3. Refugee support ae 5. Climate Change in light of Paris Conference Return of Parliament ‘The return of Pariament ins hung Paliment could be sooner than expected to test whether the Confidence ofthe House i there but barring exceptional circumstance itis safe to assume ths would be in Januar, with the Speech fom the Throne (FD. Since theres © supply issue the window for» budget isnot an immediate pricy. A budget could be as ‘ory a5 February or perhaps a ile ater Lely impacts of Uberal ot NOP Miner: ~ smaller cabinet reducing the sie of PMO/ minster stat, clear mandates + erly, pre-SFT meeting with premiers on the agenda for COP21(Paris Conference) as a demonstration of working with premiers new approach to infrastructure 8. Constitutional Reslites: ‘As the incumbent Prime Minister, Mi Harper has the right to test confidence inthe House, Untl corfdence is established the “caretaker convertion” would continue o cicumscribe prime ministerial behaviour and could cause the Governor-Generl(GG to refuse certain requests of the Prime Minister which require hissignature or corsent. For example, were Mr. Harper to attempt to fil Senate vacancies, the GG could refuse to sign the Orders-in-Council (OC) unt confidence was clearyestalsned. This "caretaker convention iste same that govers the PM and Cabinets powers during an election, Popular vote would be par of the legitimizing argument fora change in government and the discussions ith the Governor-General willbe a determing factor. The esting OIC which dissolved Parliament als {orthe return of Pariamant on November 16, Were PM Harper wishing to delay the return of Partament t would require & new OIC and the GG's signature. Depending on the specifi cicumstance, seat court, party leaders statements popular vote et, the GG might consent to a minimal delay but not Tater thon the end of Jonuary.‘Supply provisions to fund te activa of goverment would not require the return of Parliament before ‘the end of the fiscal year. Should PM Harper intond to test confidence, delay the return of Paliament to January he would have the ight to participate in the multilateral events G20, APEC, CHOGM, COPZI- but the constraints ofthe ‘earetsker convention" would need to be respected ‘Should PM Harpe intend to face Patlament. end should the GG consent. PM Harper could be expected to swear in his new Cabinet as eal as the fst week of November Implications for TCE. ‘The signs wth ore of te opposition forming government wil be: 2) the appointment of Ministers of Natural Resources and of the Environment the trends to reduce the sizeof Cabinet to say 25, Minsters wil find themselves with expanded mandates. Of course the Finance mister wil be citi. extremely important tat in terme ofthe revision of NEB rules and standards TC and the industry find an ary entry point so thatthe process dees not impede ting on projected in-service dates. This = sersitve but on the other hand ifthe Premiers and the new PM wank investment and jobs they wil have to provide lead and an efficient time-frame for getting this done. ‘ot tere were evera time for energy companies to act wit aciaty and unformly R would be in 2 ‘change of government scenario. An energy strategy for Canada son the radar and we need a spear Carter for those in the industry who are part ofthe solution going forward rather than relusing to grasp theimplcations of a changing global reality “The last point crea as Federal leadership ad a dscusion with Premiers wil take place ear. This is where we can play and help them get things right Glad to answer ay questions. an