CSE 413: Pattern

Recognition
Dr. Md. Monirul Islam
CSE Dept., BUET
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Whats about more complex networks?

Whats about more complex networks?

We will study this graph

We can show:
P(D|E)=P(D)
P (Hb|HD, E, D)= P (Hb|D)
P (CP|Hb, HD, E, D)= P (CP|Hb, HD)
P (BP|CP, Hb, HD, E, D)= P (BP|HD)
However, P (HD|E,D) cannot be implified
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Exercise:
P (CP|HD, BP, E, D)= ?

Exercise:
P (CP|HD, BP, E, D)= No simplification

Calculate P(HD=yes) ?
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Calculate P(HD=yes) ?

P ( HD Yes ) P ( HD yes | E , D )P ( E , D )

where,
= Set of Values of Exercise(E) = {Yes, No}
= Set of Values of Diet(D) = {Healthy, Not Healthy}
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Calculate P(HD=yes) ?

P ( HD Yes ) P ( HD yes | E , D )P ( E , D )

P ( HD yes | E , D )P ( E ) P ( D )

0.25 0.7 0.25 0.45 0.7 0.75 0.55 0.3 0.25

0.75 0.3 0.75
0.49
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Calculate P(HD=yes|BP=High)?
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Calculate P(HD=yes|BP=High)

P ( HD yes | BP High)

can be written as

P ( BP High | HD yes) P ( HD yes)

P ( BP High)

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Calculate P(HD=yes|BP=High)

P ( BP High) P ( BP high | HD ) P ( HD )

where,
= Set of Values of Heart Disease (HD) = {Yes, No}
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Calculate P(HD=yes|BP=High)

P ( BP High) P ( BP high | HD ) P ( HD )

0.85 0.49 0.2 0.51 0.5185

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Calculate P(HD=yes|BP=High)

P ( HD yes | BP High)

P ( BP High | HD yes) P ( HD yes)

P ( BP High)
0.85 0.49

0.8033
0.5185
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Calculate P(HD=yes|BP=high, D=Healthy, E=yes)?

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Calculate P(HD=yes|BP=high, D=Healthy, E=yes) ?

P ( HD yes | BP high, D Healthy , E Yes )

P ( BP high | HD yes, D Healthy, E Yes )

P ( HD yes | D Healthy, E Yes )

P ( BP high | D Healthy , E Yes )

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How is this formula true?

P ( HD yes | BP high, D Healthy , E Yes )
P ( BP high | HD yes, D Healthy, E Yes )

P ( HD yes | D Healthy , E Yes )

P ( BP high | D Healthy , E Yes )

Let

P( X | Y )

P (Y | X )
P( X )
P (Y )

Now add Z and W as

condition
Similarly,
P ( HD yes | BP high)

P ( X | Y , Z ,W )

P (Y | X , Z ,W )
P ( X | Z ,W )
P (Y | Z ,W )

P ( BP high | HD yes)
P ( HD yes)
P ( BP high)

Now add conditions D= Healthy and E= Yes to

above formula
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Similarly,
P( BP high | D Healthy, E Yes )
P( BP high | HD , D Healthy, E Yes ) P( HD | D Healthy, E Yes )

Proof:

P( BP high) P ( BP high | HD ) P ( HD )

Adding conditions D= Healthy

weand
get,E= Yes
P ( BP high | D Healthy, E Yes )
P ( BP high | HD , D Healthy , E Yes ) P ( HD | D Healthy , E Yes )

P ( BP high | HD ) P ( HD | D Healthy , E Yes )

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P ( HD yes | BP high, D Healthy, E Yes )

P ( BP high | HD yes, D Healthy, E Yes )
P ( HD yes | D Healthy, E Yes )
P ( BP high | D Healthy , E Yes )
P ( BP high | HD yes)

P( HD yes | D Healthy , E Yes )

P ( BP high | D Healthy , E Yes )
P ( BP high | HD yes)

P ( HD yes | D Healthy, E Yes )

P( BP high | HD ) P( HD | D Healthy, E Yes )

0.85 0.25
0.5862
0.85 0.25 0.2 0.75

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Class Test 1?

Syllabus
Duda:
Page 1 34 (up to component of x)
Page 56 61

Theodoridis:
Page 1 20 (before Section 2.4)
Section 2.7

Photocopies

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