Daisy Sanchez

Econ 4396-501
January 25, 2015
Summary of Ronald Lee - The Demographic Transition: Three Centuries of Fundamental Change
Research Questions:
While compelling data indicates a global demographic transition is occurring such that the ratio of elders to children
will have risen by a factor of ten by the year 2100, Ronald Lee (Lee) (Author) dives in further and dissects the
controversial transition that has led to a slow population growth, long life, and old population. (Lee, 2003 p. 167)
Beginning in Europe in the 1800s, mortality rates began to decrease following with decreased fertility rates which has
resulted in the shift in the population age, in simple terms. Furthermore, environmentalists have also been concerned with the
global population size. Many environmentalists fear that the size of the population has already exceeded the amount of
available resources needed for such capacity. By focusing his efforts on questioning the trends derived from the publicly
available data sets, Lee further analyzes the information to create his own assumptions on the validity behind the forecasted
trends in comparison to his own research.
In more detail, Lee is posing the following questions in response to the trends and forecasts shown in Table 1.1
Global Population Trends Over the Transition: Estimates, Guesstimates, and Forecasts, 1700-2100 (Lee, 2003 p. 168): Did
population grow so slowly before 1800 because it was kept in equilibrium by Malthusian Forces? Did mortality begin to
decline because of medical progress, rising per capita income, or for some other reason? Did fertility begin to fall because of
improved contraceptive technology and family planning programs? Were couples optimizing their fertility all along and
reduced it in response to changing economic incentives? Are we approaching a biological limit to life expectancy, or can we
expect to see continuing or even accelerating longevity gains? Why should we expect fertility decline to stop at 2.0 births per
woman? Will the societal costs of the elderly be catastrophic? What other consequences could arise from these demographic
changes? (Lee, 2003, p. 168)
Method:
The type of research method used is the Quantitative Method. The Author has gathered and utilized statistical and
numerical data information from many different sources along with performing his own computational techniques.
Throughout the article, the Author compares the given forecasts and the data information to his own research disclosing the
process behind his own numerical computations in addition to referencing the statistical data that he has relied upon. Lee had
the help of three other colleagues in gathering data and providing academic support and other editorial suggestions.
Findings:
Lee touches on issues relating to the possible causes and effects of the transition, the key drivers pushing the
transition, and the end results referring to the post-transitional period. Referring to the pre-transitional period, Lee discusses
preindustrial Europe agreeing with Thomas Malthus essay on faster growing populations depressing wages causing
mortality to rise due to famine, war or disease (Lee, 2003 p. 169) However, Lee also explains instances where the theory
did not apply. In the United States and Canada, marriage and fertility rates were higher due to the abundance of land
therefore promoting population growth. Lee goes on to explain the stages of the demographic transition beginning with the
decline in mortality rates. While it has taken the lower-income populations longer to reach decreasing mortality rates, the
higher income population has about reached their potential in mortality reductions. Lee claims one of the reasons behind the
fallen rates is the reduction in contagions and infectious diseases that are spread by air or water along with improved personal
hygiene and improved nutrition. (Lee, 2003 p. 171) While there are opposing parties on where mortality is headed, Lee feels
comfortable assessing the data provided by the United Nations because countries are organized in the data set by tier levels
depending on their economic development status. This allows for proper classification and comparison with other similar
countries. According to the data set, all tiers indicate an increase in overall life expectancy. However, in Africa specific time
slots suggest mortality rates could rise because of the HIV/AIDS disease outbreak. As mentioned previously, decreasing
fertility rates followed declining mortality rates. The fertility transition is based on the assumption that potential parents
would rather have more surviving children vs. births per se. (Lee, 2003 p. 174) Raising children has become more expensive
when analyzing all opportunity costs; therefore, indicating that more parents are willing to invest more into fewer children
because of their associated costs. According to the data set in Figure 2 - measuring Total Fertility Rate, all tier levels are
also declining. More than 60 countries, 43 belonging to the More Developed Countries, have fallen relatively close or
below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. (Lee, 2003 p. 175) However, Lee also discloses that given the data
set, it is not clear on whether a lower bound will be reached in regards to the replacement ratio. As a result, population
growth changes in response to fertility and mortality rates. Show by Figure 3, where a downward movement toward the
right reflecting the simultaneous decline in fertility and mortality, recrossing contours toward lower rates of growth. (Lee,
2003 p. 176) After rates stabilize, the demographic changes result in the age distribution, the final stage. Lee also explains
other possible consequences that could arise as a result of the demographic changes in addition to all the adjustments that will
need to be made in regard to family structures, financial savings, and economic and political policies, etc.
Ronald Lee (2003) The Demographic Transition: Three Centuries of Fundamental Change, Journal of Economic Perspectives v17 pp 167-190