2

Industry Report 2015. 9. 1

Positive ()
Top Pick

2 .
IT xEV/ESS .

SDI

Buy

130,000()

LG

Buy

320,000()

PER()

PBR()

10.7
7.8

1.0
1.0

Market
Sector
Sector Index

2 .
2015 230 2020 800 CAGR() +28% .

1) :
. . -
.
. - .
xEV ESS

IT

120

KOSPI

110
100
90
80
'14.8

'14.11

'15.2

'15.5

'15.8

215,287
(Market 15.3%)

: KRX

2) xEV() : xEV
.
, .
.
xEV 2015 216 2020 1,044 CAGR +37% . xEV
2015 9GWh 2020 159GWh CAGR +76%
3) ESS() :
ESS . ESS
. ESS
2015 24GWh 2020 52GWh CAGR +17% . ESS
2015 2GWh 2020 20GWh CAGR +52%

2 Positive
2 Positive .
.
. xEV/ ESS
SDI, LG . /

2 /

SDI
LG

(006400.KS)
(051910.KS)
(086520.KQ)
(066970.KQ)

Buy()
Buy()
Hold()
Not Rated

Analyst

02)768-7462, j.ko@nhwm.com

(: , , %, )

(12M)
130,000
320,000
7,000
-

: 8 31 / : NH

84,500
234,000
7,360
6,550

PER
2015E
2016F
27.7
16.7
12.0
9.9
27.3
17.3
N/A
N/A

PBR
2015E
2016F
0.5
0.5
1.3
1.2
1.3
1.1
1.6
1.6

ROE
2015E
2016F
1.8
2.9
10.5
11.5
5.0
7.5
0.2
1.6

2015E
2016F
421
401
709
586
81
59
51
44

CONTENTS
I. Executive Summary .......................................................................................... 3

II. 2 3 ....................................................................................... 7
1.
2. xEV()
3. ESS
[]
SDI (Buy, TP 130,000) .................................................................................32
LG(Buy, TP 320,000)...................................................................................40
(Hold, TP 7,000)..................................................................................43
(Not Rated)...........................................................................................47

www.nhwm.com

I. Executive Summary
2
2 .
2015 230 2020 800 28% .
.
1) :
(Product Life Cycle, - 1- 2- 3--)
. -
.
. - .
xEV/ESS(/) .
ESS .
2) xEV : xEV .

, .

. xEV 2015 216 2020 1,044 37%
. xEV 2%
10% . xEV 2015 9GWh 2020
159GWh 76% .
3) ESS : ESS
. ESS
. ESS 2015 24GWh
2020 52GWh 17% . ESS
2015 2GWh 2020 20GWh 52% .
( )

( )

(GWh)

()

300

275

250

80

5(15E-20F) 32%

5(15E-20F) 28%
190

200

58

60
46

138

150
100
50

90

30

40

45

50

'12

'13

'14

83

68

36

103

30
12

15

16

19

'12

'13

'14

28

23

0
'11

'15E

'16F

: SNE Research, NH

'17F

'18F

'19F

'20F

'11

'15E

'16F

'17F

'18F

'19F

'20F

: SNE Research, NH

www.nhwm.com

- ( )

- ( )
($/kWh)

($/kWh)

2,000

1,600

1,200

1,500

800

1,000

400

500

0
'09

'10

'11

'12

'13

'14 '15E '16F '17F '18F '19F '20F

'09

'10

'11

'12

'13

'14 '15E '16F '17F '18F '19F '20F

: Navigant Research, NH

: Navigant Research, NH

xEV 37%

xEV 76%
(GWh)

()
xEV

1,200

1,044

1,000

159

160

5(15E-20F) 37%

5(15E-20F) 76%

746

800

120

95

516

600

80

372

400
200

xEV

200

89

151

173

190

56

278

216

40
1

'11

'12

'13

'14

'15E

17

31

0
'11

'12

'13

'14

'15E '16F

'17F '18F

'19F

'20F

'16F

'17F

'18F

'19F

'20F

: SNE Research, NH

: SNE Research, NH

ESS 17%

ESS 52%
(GWh)

(GWh)
60

ESS
52
5(15E-20F) 17%

50

5(15E-20F) 52%

36

21
20
10

11

14

15

28

30

10

20

20

42
40

ESS

25

47

11

24

10

15

5
0

'11

'12

'13

'14

0
'11

'12

'13

'14

'15E

'16F

: SNE Research, NH

'17F

'18F

'19F

'20F

'15E

'16F

'17F

'18F

'19F

'20F

: SNE Research, NH

www.nhwm.com

SDI
SDI

SDI . xEV 1)

[Buy, TP: 130,000]

BMW, , 2) (Magna
Steyr Battery Systems GmbH & Co OG)
. ESS 1) ESS /
/ , 2) Duke Energy ESS
. ( , )
.

LG

LG 2016 , GM, ,

[Buy, TP: 320,000]

40 . 20, 10
, 4 2016
. 2015 6,000
2016 1.3, 2017 2.0, 2018 3 . 15
, 16 xEV, ESS()
BEP() .
() 15 133 16 3,275, 17 4,550
.

, , ,

, .

.
, ,
. -2 90% ,
70% ,
xEV/ESS .

(2014.1.2=100)

SDI

120%

KOSPI

LG

(2014.1.2=100)
160%

110%

140%

100%

120%

90%
80%

100%

70%

80%

60%

60%

50%

40%

40%
'14.1

'14.5

'14.9

: Bloomberg, NH

'15.1

'15.5

'14.1

'14.5

'14.9

'15.1

'15.5

: Bloomberg, NH

www.nhwm.com

Peer Group Valuation Table

2 : Global Peer Analysis - Valuation

PER ()

PBR ()

EV/EBITDA ()

ROE (%)

ROA (%)

Div. Yield (%)

2014
2015E
2016F
2014
2015E
2016F
2014
2015E
2016F
2014
2015E
2016F
2014
2015E
2016F
2014
2015E
2016F

(: , %)

SDI

LG

Panasonic

BYD

Sony

N/A
27.7
16.7
0.7
0.5
0.5
13.9
7.5
7.6
-0.8
1.8
2.9
-0.6
1.2
2.0
0.9
1.2
1.2

14.3
12.0
9.9
1.1
1.3
1.2
5.8
5.6
5.0
7.3
10.5
11.5
4.8
7.2
8.1
2.2
1.7
1.7

22.5
15.0
12.2
1.8
1.5
1.3
4.4
4.1
3.6
8.6
10.4
11.8
2.3
3.7
4.3
1.1
1.6
1.9

135.0
33.0
28.5
2.4
2.1
1.9
18.1
14.7
13.0
1.8
7.5
6.4
0.5
2.1
2.4
0.0
0.1
0.2

-20.8
16.4
0.9
1.4
1.3
5.2
5.1
4.2
-5.8
7.6
8.7
-0.9
1.3
1.6
1.3
0.7
0.9

: Bloomberg, NH

2 : Global Peer Analysis - Valuation

PER ()

PBR ()

EV/EBITDA ()

ROE (%)

ROA (%)

Div. Yield (%)

2014
2015E
2016F
2014
2015E
2016F
2014
2015E
2016F
2014
2015E
2016F
2014
2015E
2016F
2014
2015E
2016F

(: , %)

Asahi Kasei

Sumitomo

Hitachi Chemical

Umicore

70.8
27.3
17.3
1.5
1.3
1.1
8.8
8.5
6.4
2.0
5.0
7.5
0.8
2.1
3.2
0.0
0.0
0.0

9.7
12.4
11.8
1.1
1.2
1.1
4.8
6.1
5.4
11.7
9.9
9.7
5.5
8.6
8.4
2.4
2.1
2.2

16.8
11.2
9.8
1.0
1.1
1.1
9.2
7.6
7.2
6.5
10.6
11.0
1.4
4.6
5.3
2.4
2.3
2.5

9.9
10.6
9.7
0.9
1.0
0.9
4.0
4.5
4.1
9.5
9.8
10.2
6.1
8.8
9.4
2.6
2.5
2.7

21.1
17.0
14.9
2.1
2.2
2.0
9.8
8.6
7.7
10.1
13.0
14.0
4.6
5.7
6.1
3.0
3.0
3.2

: Bloomberg, NH

www.nhwm.com

II. 2 3
2

1(Primary Cell) 2(Secondary Cell) . 1

, 2

2 (Lead-Acid), (Lithium-Ion)

. ,

80%(2014 ). , , Tablet PC,

, ESS(Energy Storage System) , 12%(2014

) .

2 . , No

Memory Effect, .
1) (Cylindrical Cell), 2) (Prismatic Cell), 3) (Polymer Cell)
. ,
. e-Bike, xEV()
. 2
. SNE Research 2015
+36% . IT() 83%, xEV
14%, ESS() 4% .

3 1) , 2) xEV

, 3) ESS .

2: ( )
Others

(GWh)

Li-ion

NiMH

NiCD

2: ( )

Lead Acid

()

Others

Li-ion

NiMH

NiCD

Lead Acid

70

450

60
50

300

40
30
150

20
10

0
'90

'00

'10

: GWh(Gigawatt-Hour)
: Avicenne Energy, NH

'13

'14

'15E

'90

'00

'10

'13

'14

'15E

: Avicenne Energy, NH

www.nhwm.com

: Application ( )

: Application ( )

(GWh)

()

300

IT

xEV

ESS

90

IT

xEV

ESS

80

250

70
200

60
50

150

40
100

30

50

20
10

0
'11

'12

'13

'14

'15E

'16F

'17F

'18F

'19F

'20F

0
'11

'12

'13

'14

'15E

'16F

'17F

'18F

'19F

: SNE Research, NH

: SNE Research, NH

: Application ( )

: ( )

IT

xEV

100%

ESS

100%

80%
60%

86% 83%
96% 94% 91%

74%

63%

52%

43%

20%
3%
1%
'11

5%
1%
'12

7%
1%
'13

11% 14%
3% 4%
'14 '15E

35%

75%

50%

40%

0%

'20F

20%

30%

40%

50%

58%
25%

6%

7%

8%

8%

7%

'16F

'17F

'18F

'19F

'20F

0%
'12

'13

'14

'15E

'16F

'17F

'18F

'19F

'20F

: SNE Research, NH

: SNE Research, NH

2 :
2

(Wh/Kg)

()

(Lithium-Ion)

300

1,200

(Lead-Acid)

70

200~300

(Nickel Cadmium)

90

1,000

(Nickel Metal Hydride)

200

1,000

: , ,
:
:
: ,
:
: ,

:
:

: , , NH

www.nhwm.com

1.
1-1)

Application (Product Life Cycle)

. , , ,

. 3

. 1 10~ 30%, 2 30~ 50%, 3

50~ 80% .
.

-1
( 10~ 30%)

1) -1 10~ 30% .
.
.

-2
( 30~ 50%)
-3
( 50~ 80%)

2) -2 30~ 50% .
. .
3) -3 50~ 80% .
.
, .

1
: 10~30%
2
: 30~50%
3
: 50~80%

: NH

www.nhwm.com

LCD TV
($)
1,600

LCD TV ASP()
1

1,400

1,200

77%

92%

87%

83%

96%

69%

1,000
51%

800
40%

600
24%

400
200

LCD TV ()

5%

11%

0
'04

'05

'06

'07

'08

'09

'10

'11

'12

'13

'14

: DisplaySearch, NH

LCD TV ASP()
LCD TV ASP
0%
-1%

-5%

-3%

-4%

-10%
-10%

-10%
-15%

-12%

-14%

-13%

-17%

-20%
-25%

-30%
'04

'05

2
'06

-27%

'07

'08

'09

'10

'11

'12

'13

'14

: DisplaySearch, NH

32 TV
0%
-5%

-2.4%

-10%
-9.5%

-9.6%

-10.5%

-15%
-20%
-25%
-25.7%

-30%
-35%

-24.4%

-26.8%

-28.1%
-32.5%

-40%
-39.6%

-45%
'04

'05

1
'06

2
'07

3
'08

'09

'10

'11

'12

'13

'14

: DisplaySearch, Witsview, NH

10

www.nhwm.com

1-2) -
-

, , Tablet PC IT Application.

, ,

, ,

. 80%

Tablet PC

-3 .

. - 22% .

14.8(+13% y-y) , 77% .

-3 .

ASP() , ASP

.
.

, -

.
. ,
. 52% -3
.

-: Application ( )
(GWh)
100

Tablet PC
Mobile Phone
Note PC

90
80

-: Application ( )

Power Bank
Others

Others

Note PC

Tablet PC

Power Bank

Mobile Phone

100%

70

75%

60
50

50%

40
30

25%

20
10
0

0%
'12

'13

'14

'15E

'16F

: SNE Research, NH

'17F

'18F

'19F

'20F

'12

'13

'14

'15E

'16F

'17F

'18F

'19F

'20F

: SNE Research, NH

11

www.nhwm.com

-3( 50~ 80%)

()
Traditional ()
94% 95%
90%
()
84%
77%

()
2.5
2.0

68%

-3( 50~ 80%)

100%

75%

50%

19%

25%

0.5
0.0

0%
'11

60%

Notebook-PC ()

58%

300

56%

54%
52% 52%

54%
51%

200

50%

'12

'13

48%
46%

50

44%

42%
'10

'14 '15E '16F '17F '18F '19F

'11

'12

'13

'14

'15E '16F '17F '18F '19F

: Gartner, NH

+Ultramobile -2(30~ 50%)

Notebook+Ultramobile ()
Deskbased-PC ()
Notebook+Ultramobile ()

()
400
55%

(mAh)
60%
53%

50%

300

49%
47%

250

51%

3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000

45%

41% 41%

150

55%
50%

47%
44%

200

50%

48%

100

: Gartner, NH

40%

100
35%

50

1,500
1,000
500

S6

S5

S4

'15E '16F '17F '18F '19F

: Ultramobile 2-in-1 , Windows8 Intel x86 ,

: Gartner, NH

: GSMArena, NH

-:

- ( )

()

($/kWh)

3.0

1,600

( )

'14

'13

'12

'11

'10

S3

30%

S2

350

52%
49%

150

27%

'10

Deskbased-PC ()

57% 57% 57%

250

41%
1.0

Notebook-PC ()

400
350

56%

1.5

()

1,200

2.5
800

2.0
400

1.5
'12

'13

'14

'15E

'16F

: SNE Research, NH

'17F

'18F

'19F

'20F

'09

'10

'11

'12

'13

'14 '15E '16F '17F '18F '19F '20F

: Navigant Research, NH

12

www.nhwm.com

1-3) -
-

xEV, ESS , -

: xEV, ESS

. SNE Research 2015 -

Xev 14%, ESS 4% .

xEV

xEV 2014 190 . HEV(Hybrid

Electric Vehicle, ) 86%, EV(Electric Vehicle, )

10%, PHEV(Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle, )

2%

5% . xEV 2% .

xEV

, . xEV-

xEV 20% , xEV

200

. xEV- 2010 kWh(Kilowatt-hour, 1

1kW ) 1,000 2015 200

. xEV
.

ESS

ESS - . 24GWh(+11% y-y)

ESS . ESS

. , , //

ESS

. ESS

. ESS
.

xEV
()
1,200

xEV 2%

Others

EU

China

S. Korea

Japan

USA

12%

1,000

10%

800

8%

600

6%

400

4%

200

2%

xEV/

10%

7%
5%
4%
2%

2%

'14

'15E

3%

0%

0
'11

'12

'13

'14

'15E '16F '17F

: SNE Research, NH

'18F

'19F

'20F

'16F

'17F

'18F

'19F

'20F

: SNE Research, LMC Automotive, NH

13

www.nhwm.com

xEV Cost Structure

Power Elec
+

100%

- ( )

BMS

($/kWh)
2,000

75%

1,500

50%

1,000

25%

500

21%

26%

26%

Volt(PHEV)

Bluecar(EV)

Leaf(EV)

5%

0%

Active Hybrid 5
(HEV)

0
'09

'10

'11

'12

'13

'14 '15E '16F '17F '18F '19F '20F

: Avicenne Energy, NH

: Navigant Research, NH

ESS ( )

ESS ( )

(GWh)
60

52
47

50

10

10

11

8%

8%

'17F

'18F

'19F

7%

5%

28

20

7%
6%

6%

36

21

8%
7%

42
40
30

ESS /

9%

ESS

24

4%

4%

3%

3%

15

2%

1%

1%

'11

'12

1%

1%
0%

0
'11

'12

'13

'14

'15E

:SNE Research, NH

'16F

'17F

'18F

'19F

'20F

'13

'14

'15E

'16F

'20F

:SNE Research, NH

14

www.nhwm.com

1-4)
4

4 , , , . 4
36%, 13%, 14%, 9%,
28% . .

(Cathode)

1) (Cathode):

: 36%

. , , , .
NCA(LiNiCoAlO2), LMO(LiMnO2), LFP(LiFePO4), NCM(LiNiCoMnO2)
, , ,
.

(Anode)
: 13%

2) (Anode): (Graphite) .
, .
.
,
.

(Separator)
: 14%

3) (Separator):
(Pore) . ,
. ,
xEV .
, (Celgard) .

(Electrolyte)
: 9%

4) (Electrolyte):
. ,
. ,
, . 30%, 30%, 40%
.
.

: LG, NH

: LG, NH

15

www.nhwm.com

4
()

3
2.5
, 28%

,
36%

2
1.15
0.8

,
9%
,
14%

0.68

,
13%
0

: , NH

: 2014
: Avicenne Energy, NH

100%

()
LFP

120

LMO

NCA

MMC

LCO

75%

100

,
43%

,
49%

80

50%

60
40

25%

20

0%

,
6%
Nichia,
11%
Sumitomo,
16%

Reshine,
10%
Nichia,
12%
,
14%

,
60%

Nippon Denko,
8%
ShanShan
9%
Quannyuan,
15%

Umicore,
24%

Umicore,
15%

LCO

'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14

,
51%

NCM

JGC,
17%

Zhuoneng
6%
Alees,
10%
STL,
11%
Pulead,
13%

LMO

LFP

: Avicenne Energy, NH

: 2014
: Avicenne Energy, NH

($/Kg)
30

2
25~28

25

20~23

~21

~20

NCA
100%

75%

20
15

50%

LFP

LMO

LCO

9%
10%

14%

20%

26%

25%

9%
25%

8~9

10

NCM

25%
36%

26%

0%

0
LCO

NCM

: , NH

NCA

LFP

LMO

'14

'25F

: Avicenne Energy, NH

16

www.nhwm.com

()

60

50

40
30
20
10
0
'06

'07

'08

'09

'10

'11

'12

'13

'14

: Avicenne Energy, NH

: Sanyo, NH

(Mm2)
800

Others

UBE

Toray

Celgard

Asahi

700
600

Asahi Kasei,
25%

, 31%

500
400
300

Tonen, 21%

Celgard, 11%

200
100

SK
, 12%

0
'05

'06

'07

'08

'09

'10

'11

'12

'13

'14

: Avicenne Energy, NH

: 2014
: Avicenne Energy, NH

()
50

Cap
Chemical,
15%

45
40
35
30

GTHR, 14%

, 50%

25
20

Mitsubishi
Chemical,
13%

, 8%

15
10
5
0
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14
: Avicenne Energy, NH

: 2014
: Avicenne Energy, NH

17

www.nhwm.com

- LFP

- LMO

LFP

LMO

(Graphite)

(Graphite)

(Li2CO3)

(Li2CO3)

(Wh/kg)

85-105

140-180

()

500-2,000

800-2,000

($/kWh)

$550-$850

$450-$700

Application

(Backup Power), (Frequency Regulation)

(Automotive),

A123 Systems, BYD, ATL, Lishen

SDI, LG, AESC

LTO LMO

LCO

LMO

LCO

LTO

(Graphite)

(Li2CO3)

(Li-Po)

(Wh/kg)

80-95

140-200

()

2,000-25,000

300-800

($/kWh)

$900-$2,200

$250-$500

Application

(Electric Buses), (Frequency Regulation)

ATL, Toshiba, Microvast

SDI, LG, BYD, , ATL, Lishen

NCA

NCM

NCA

NCM

(Graphite)

(Graphite), (Silicon)

(Li2CO3)

(Li2CO3)

(Wh/kg)

120-160

120-140

()

800-5,000

800-2,000

($/kWh)

$240-$380

$550-$750

Application

(Automotive),

SDI,

Johnson Controls, Saft

: 2014
: Navigant Research, , NH

18

www.nhwm.com

2. xEV ()
xEV

xEV . xEV

, 2 . 1)
xEV , 2)
. xEV
.
xEV 2015 216 2020 1,044 (5) 37%
. xEV 2% 10%
. 2020 xEV HEV
. EV PHEV xEV
. SNE Research xEV
2015 9GWh 2020 159GWh 76% .

xEV 37%

xEV
PHEV

()
1,200

HEV

1,044

1,000

75%

5(15E-20F) 37%
746

800

50%

516

600
372

400
200

EV

100%

xEV

89

278

151

173

190

216

'12

'13

'14

'15E '16F

25%

0%
'11

'17F '18F

'19F

'20F

'10

'14

'15E

'16F

'17F

: SNE Research, NH

: Navigant Research, B3, NH

xEV 76%

xEV 1

'18F

'19F

'20F

(GWh)
1

xEV

200

159

160

27.2 kWh
23.7

5(15E-20F) 76%
120

95
10.7 kWh

80

56

40
1

'11

'12

'13

'14

'15E

17

8.7

31
1.1 kWh

0
'16F

: SNE Research, NH

'17F

'18F

'19F

'20F

HEV

PHEV

EV

: SNE Research, NH

19

www.nhwm.com

xEV

Hybrid
EV

Plug-In
Hybrid EV

EV

: SNE Research, NH

xEV , ,

: SNE Research, NH

20

www.nhwm.com

2-1) xEV
:

xEV

. 2014 xEV 200 ,

HEV 108, PHEV 18, EV 71 . 2015 xEV

. xEV X(EV), GM Volt 2

(PHEV) . xEV xEV
.
xEV . Nissan
Leaf(EV) 14 , Leaf 199 /
, 72 .
S (2015 10 31 ) .
S 1,000
. xEV .
Titan() xEV
, xEV
.

xEV
1997

2010

HEV
Toyota - Prius

2015

1
GM - Volt 1.0

Tesla - Model S

BMW - i8

Nissan - Leaf

Tesla - Model X

BMW - i3
Audi - A3 e-tron

GM - Volt 2.0

Mitsubishi - Outlander

: , SNE Research, NH

21

www.nhwm.com

xEV

xEV :

xEV

350

288

300
250

100
24

48

60

60

60

72

EV

144

150

PHEV(Plug-In Hybrid EV)

204

200

50

HEV(Hybrid EV)

()

()

96

2
1

0
'11

'12

'13

'14

'15E

'16F

'17F

'18F

'19F

'20F

'10.1

'11.1

'12.1

: EDTA, NH

: EDTA, NH

xEV

xEV

'14.1

'15.1

()

()
xEV

90

84

45

HEV

PHEV

EV

41

40

80
70

35

63

60

25

35

40
20
1

'11

'12

'13

21

20

24

30

29

30

50

50

10

'13.1

14

15
10

11

'12

'13

'14

0
'14

'15E '16F '17F

'18F

'19F

'11

'20F

'15E

'16F

: PHEV + EV
: CAAM, IHS, NH

: HEV + PHEV + EV
: SNE Research, NH

()
6,000

'17F

'18F

'19F

'20F

()
()

2.7%

3.0%

5,000

2.5%

4,000

2.0%
1.5%

3,000
5,140
2,000
1,000
0

0.001%
15
'20F

: Google, NH

1.0%

0.6%

0.5%

0.026%
40

1,050

'25F

'30F

0.0%
'35F

: 5
: IHS Automotive, NH

22

www.nhwm.com

2-2)
:

xEV .

. 7,500

, 1 139 .

5,000 , 4,000
. 2020 NEV(New Energy Vehicle, EV+Plug-in Hybrid EV+Fuel
Cell EV ) 500 xEV
. NEV
xEV .
, , 420
1,500 . ,
. Ray 1,080( ,
500 ) . , ,
EV .

- 8

- xEV 2,500~7,500
- 50% PHEV EV

- 2020 7,000
- 2020 xEV 100
- xEV Car2Go
- 2020 xEV 50

- xEV 90
- PHEV EV 5 8 1,000
- 9 12 2,000

- : 20g 6,300
20~60g 4,000
- 2015 xEV 40 ( 7,000)

- , , , , ,
- 2020 xEV 600
- /

- 1 1,500
-

: , , NH

23

www.nhwm.com

EV

(: )

676
103
50
100
1,500

43
26
10
5

5
30
9
5

50
50
20
180

: 2015 2 5
: , NH

2015 EV

GM

BMW

Nissan

RAY ()
130 km/h
6

SOUL ()
145 km/h
4~5

SM3 ()
135 km/h
6~8

SPARK ()
145 km/h
6~8

i3()
150 km/h
6~8

LEAF()
140 km/h
5

25
16.4kWh
(14kWh)
6 12km

25
27kWh
(24.3kWh)
10 16km

30
26.6kWh
(22kWh)
5 10km

20
21.4kWh
(19.4kWh)
8 16km

40
24kWh
(19.2kWh)
5 10km

3,500

4,250

4,338

3,990

12 3

14 5

13 10

13 10

30
21.3kWh
(18.8kWh)
8 10km
5,750
6,400
6,900
14 4

()

5,400
15 1

: 1) 2015 2 5 2)
: , NH

EV

420

1,500

(, )

EV
500
EV
EV

( 500, 700,
900 )

EV

:
: , NH

24

www.nhwm.com

. , xEV

.
2015 (130g/km , 18km/L) 1
. ,
2021 95g/km( 25km/L).
2014 9 EURO-6 . EURO6 (CO), (HC), (NOx),
(PM) , EU(European Union)
.
, (Caf Standards)
. 2025
54.5mpg(23.2km/L) .
,
. HEV, PHEV, EV xEV
.

EURO-X

EURO-1
EURO-2
EURO-3
EURO-4
EURO-5
EURO-6

EURO-1
EURO-2
EURO-3
EURO-4
EURO-5
EURO-6

(: g/km)

1992
1996
2000
2005
2009
2014

07
01
01
01
09
09

1992
1997
2001
2006
2011
2015

12
01
01
01
01
09

2.72
1.00
0.64
0.50
0.50
0.50

0.97
0.70
0.56
0.30
0.23
0.17

0.50
0.25
0.18
0.08

0.14
0.08
0.05
0.025
0.005
0.005

1992
1996
2000
2005
2009
2014

07
01
01
01
09
09

1992
1997
2001
2006
2011
2015

12
01
01
01
01
09

2.72
2.20
2.30
0.10
0.10
0.10

0.20
0.10
0.10
0.10

0.97
0.50
-

0.15
0.08
0.06
0.06

0.005
0.005

: KOTRA, NH

25

www.nhwm.com

2-3)

xEV .

.
xEV .
. xEV
. xEV
. 1) (CHAdeMO), 2) /
DC(), 3) AC()3 . DC
. xEV
, / xEV DC
. xEV
.
xEV . xEV
. (Supercharger)
2 487 (2015 8
502, 2,832). .
xEV
.

xEV 3

(CHAdeMO)

DC()

AC() 3

2010

2011 10 GM , 7

2012 12

Nissan, Toyota, Mitsubishi

-
-

-
-
(80% 30 )

GM, BMW, Ford, Volkswagen

-
( )
- (15 )
-
-

Renault
-

- 20Kw

: , NH

xEV

GM
BMW
Nissan

RAY
SM3
SPARK
i3
LEAF

AC
AC
AC
AC
AC

(5PIN)
(7PIN)
(5PIN)
(5PIN)
(5PIN)

DC Type (8_+2_)
AC 3 (7PIN)
DC Type 1 (5_+2_)
DC Type 1 (5_+2_)
DC Type (8_+2_)

: , NH

26

www.nhwm.com

Supercharger Station Roadmap

2015

2016

: , NH

xEV ( )
()
250

200

237

177

150
118
100
50

33
7

0
'10

'11

'12

'13

'14

: , NH

27

www.nhwm.com

3. ESS
3-1) ESS
ESS

ESS(Energy Storage System, ) (, Grid)

.
. ESS
.
ESS PHES(Pumped Hydro Energy System, ),
UPS(Uninterruptible Power Supply, ) .
ESS 3 .
1) : ,
.
/
. ESS
,
.
2) : 2011 9 15 (
).
. 60%
ESS .
3) : (, )
.
. ESS
.

ESS(Energy Storage System, )

: , NH

28

www.nhwm.com

3-2)
ESS

ESS .

-.
, ,
. ,
,
.

ESS

ESS 2 .

ESS

. (Cell)

. SDI, LG,
ESS
.
SDI 1) GCN(Green Charge Networks) 25MW ESS , 2)
Duke Energy 36MW ESS
. LG 1) ESS
, 2) (Viking Queen)
. ESS (Powerwall)
ESS (Powerpack) .
(GigaFactory, 2017 ) .

ESS

(Wh/Kg)
(%)
()

NaS()

Flow

Ni-Cd( )

150-250
95
10-15
O

125-150
75-85
10-15
X

60-80
70-75
10-15
X

40-60
60-80
5-10
X

30-50
60-70
3-6
X

: SDI, NH

29

www.nhwm.com

ESS

ESS
()

400
300
200

NaS
CAES (),
(),
, $100-300 $200-300
$150

100
0

13

13

Flow

500

13

,
$520

600

ESS

30

NaS()

800
700

35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0

CAES()

Flow,
$600-1,000

($/kWh)
900

: SNE Research, NH

: SNE Research, NH

ESS (Powerwall)

ESS (Powerpack)

: , NH

: , NH

: , NH

30

www.nhwm.com

3-3) ESS
ESS

ESS . ESS

.
. , , , ESS
. SNE Research ESS
2015 24GWh 2020 52GWh (5) 17% .
ESS .
ESS 2015 2GWh 2020 20GWh (5) 52%
.

ESS 17%
(GWh)
60

ESS 52%
(GWh)

ESS
52
5(15E-20F) 17%

50

47

5(15E-20F) 52%

36

21
20
10

11

14

15

28

30

10

20

20

42
40

ESS

25

11

24

10

15

5
0

'11

'12

'13

'14

0
'11

'12

'13

'14

'15E

'16F

'17F

'18F

'19F

'20F

: SNE Research, NH

'15E

'16F

'17F

'18F

'19F

'20F

: SNE Research, NH

ESS

- (Self Generation Incentive Program)
ESS Wh $0.5~$2.0

- ESS
5%(2020)
- (DOE) ESS
- ESS 1/3
100, 1

- () ESS 2/3 (2,000 )

:
- () ESS 1kWh 5
- ESS 30%
- ESS
1,000kW 100kW ESS
- ESS
2015 200MW 2017 500MW

2013 2
2014
2015

: , NH

31

SDI (006400.KS)
Company Report 2015. 9. 1

Buy ()
130,000 ()

2 . 2
SDI

:
SDI 2015 7.57(+38.3% y-y), 103
(-85.4% y-y) . IT

SDI-
2
SDI 2 . 2
IT 2 2 .
xEV ESS
xEV 2 , , 7~8
. 2015 4,867 2016
8,431 .

(15/08/31)

84,500

KOSPI
1,941.49
KOSDAQ
687.11
()
5,810.6
()
68.8
52 (14/09/01)
154,000
(14/08/24)
76,800
(60)
32.8
(2014)
0.86%

26.8%

20.5%
8.2%

(%)

6 12

-31.0
-24.9

-38.1
-36.7

-44.2
-40.6

'15.5

'15.8

Price Trend
SDI

120

KOSPI

100
80
60
40
'14.8

'14.11

'15.2

ESS 2 ,
. 2015 1,485 2016 2,349
. ESS

: 15 PBR 0.5
PBR .
, 2

xEV ESS SDI
2

Analyst

02)768-7462, j.ko@nhwm.com

SDI Buy, 130,000

-12

()

(%)

()

(%)

()
()

EPS
()

(%)

PER
()

PBR
()

EV/EBITDA
()

ROE
(%)

(%)

()

2013
2014
2015E
2016F
2017F

3,428
5,474
7,571
8,208
8,545

-40.6
59.7
38.3
8.4
4.1

-11
71
10
174
381

-0.3
1.3
0.1
2.1
4.5

131
-84
212
350
520

2,815
-1,494
3,056
5,067
7,546

-91.3

65.8
48.9

57.5
N/A
27.7
16.7
11.2

1.0
0.7
0.5
0.5
0.5

19.2
13.9
7.5
7.6
6.6

1.8
-0.9
1.8
2.9
4.3

40.0
35.0
38.5
39.9
39.7

382
69
421
401
348

: 1) EPS, PER, PBR, ROE 2) 2014 SDI

: NH

SDI

www.nhwm.com

Buy, 130,000
SOTP Valuation

SDI Buy 130,000 .

SOTP(Sum of the Parts) .

130,000

130,000 2015 PBR 0.8 ,

54%.
SDI 2015 PBR 0.5
. PBR .
, 2
. xEV ESS SDI
2
.

SDI SOTP(Sum of the Parts) Valuation 130,000

EBITDA(15E)

1) 2
143
2)
158
3)
324

1) /
2)


(++-)

(%)
()
SDI ()

Target Multiple()
3.5
5.3
5.8

EV
3,195
494
834
1,866
5,739
2,353
3,386
421
232
9,123
8,997
98.6%
68,800
130,000

(: , )

Peer Group 20% (LG, Panasonic, BYD )

Peer Group 20% (LG, JSR, UDC, Dow Chem )
Peer Group 20% (LG, , )
30%
30%
2015
2015

2015 8 31
35,891

: SDI, NH

33

SDI

www.nhwm.com

2()

SDI 2 , Tablet PC IT Application

. SDI-
2

SDI

.
. .
. 1) , e-Bike
Non-IT Application , 2) xEV,
ESS . .
2
. xEV ESS .
SDI . xEV 1) BMW,
, 2) (Magna Steyr
Battery Systems GmbH & Co OG)
. ESS 1) ESS //
, 2) Duke Energy ESS
. ( , )
.
8 28 SDI 187(
58%+ 13.8%=71.8%) . 2011
5 2 (STM). SDI 2
2
.
SDI PBR
12M Fwd P/B
P/B +1std(1.3)
P/B -2std (0.5)

2.0

SDI

P/B +2std (1.5)

P/B -1std (0.8)
Avg P/B(1.0)

()
()

3,500

()

3,000

+/- 2 SD: 1.5x/0.5x

+/- 1 SD: 1.3x/0.8x
Avg P/B 1.0x

1.0

200
150

2,500

1.5

()

100

2,000
50
1,500
0

1,000

0.5

-50

500
0

0.0
'08

'09

'10

'11

: SDI, NH

'12

'13

'14

'15

-100
1Q11

1Q12

1Q13

1Q14

1Q15

: SDI, NH

34

SDI

www.nhwm.com

60

500

40

400

20

300

200

15%
10%

0
1Q12

1Q13

1Q14

4%

4%

3%

2%

2%

0%

-40
1Q11

7%

5%

-20

100

8%

1Q15

: SDI, NH

: SNE Research, NH

SDI xEV

SDI ESS

()

xEV ()

180

xEV ()

()
0

160

-10

140

-20

120

-30

100

-40

80

-50

60

-60

40

-70

20

-80

-90
1Q13

3Q13

1Q14

: SDI, NH

3Q14

1Q15

3Q15F

()
70

ESS ()

600

17%
15%

Maxell

80

700

19%

BAK

800

20%

BYD

100

2
21%

Coslight

900

25%

Lishen

120

Sony

()

ATL

()

LG

()

SDI

()
1,000

15 ( )

SDI

()

ESS ()

60

-5

50

-10

40

-15

30

-20

20

-25

10

-30

-35
1Q11

1Q12

1Q13

1Q14

1Q15

: SDI, NH

35

SDI

www.nhwm.com

SDI

1)
1. (IT)
2. (EV+ESS)
2.1 (EV)
2.2 (ESS)
3. (PDP )
2)
1.
2.

1)
1. (IT)
2. (EV+ESS)
2.1 (EV)
2.2 (ESS)
3. (PDP )
2)
1.
2.

1)
1. (IT)
2. (EV+ESS)
2.1 (EV)
2.2 (ESS)
3. (PDP )
2)
1.
2.

(: , %)

1Q14

2Q14

3Q14

4Q14

1Q15

2Q15

3Q15E

4Q15F

2014

2015E

2016F

2,184
1,135
773
64
53
11
298
1,049
684
365
-13.6
-32.6
57.9
-61.0
-48.5
-12.5
-29.5
25.2
6.8
18.5
-0.6%
-3%
7%
-95%
-92%
-113%
-10%
2%
1%
5%

2,109
1,043
743
85
62
23
216
1,061
695
366
30.1
23.6
59.6
-26.3
-20.3
-5.9
-9.7
29.4
7.7
21.7
1.4%
2%
8%
-31%
-33%
-26%
-5%
3%
1%
6%

1,892
797
726
71
60
11

1,910
863
748
114
83
31

1,866
796
709
87
74
12

1,844
781
650
132
109
23

1,940
843
648
196
141
55

1,922
837
615
221
163
59

7,571
3,257
2,622
635
487
148

8,208
3,706
2,628
1,078
843
235

1,097
704
393
32.6
-11.1
41.9
-53.0
-44.2
-8.9

1,050
645
405
37.2
-7.7
44.2
-51.8
-42.8
-9.1

1,070
666
404
6.8
-80.4
8.6
-89.1
-65.8
-23.3

1,063
667
396
-3.7
-99.3
-13.3
-86.0
-77.1
-8.9

1,097
691
406
-0.3
-88.9
-15.4
-73.5
-72.3
-1.2

1,085
677
408
7.5
-75.6
-12.4
-63.3
-62.4
-0.8

4,315
2,701
1,614
10
-344
-32
-312
-278
-34

4,502
2,785
1,717
174
-179
12
-191
-167
-24

40.3
12.8
27.5
1.7%
-1%
6%
-75%
-73%
-80%

45.3
3.2
42.1
1.9%
-1%
6%
-45%
-51%
-29%

85.3
33.3
52.0
0.4%
-10%
1%
-103%
-88%
-191%

88.6
42.2
46.5
-0.2%
-13%
-2%
-65%
-71%
-39%

88.6
41.2
47.4
0.0%
-11%
-2%
-38%
-51%
-2%

83.2
36.4
46.8
0.4%
-9%
-2%
-29%
-38%
-1%

346
153
193
0.1%
-11%
-1%
-49%
-57%
-23%

353
152
201
2.1%
-5%
0%
-18%
-20%
-10%

4%
2%
7%

4%
1%
10%

8%
5%
13%

8%
6%
12%

8%
6%
12%

8%
5%
11%

8,096
3,838
2,990
334
258
76
514
4,256
2,727
1,529
86
-28
204
-192
-156
-36
-39
140
31
110
1.1%
-1%
7%
-57%
-60%
-48%
-8%
3%
1%
7%

8%
6%
12%

8%
5%
12%

: 1) PDP 2014 3
2) 2014 7 1 SDI+
3) 2014 1
: SDI, NH

36

SDI

www.nhwm.com

1) , 2) xEV

1. xEV -2 . ,
,
. .
1) (Pouch) : . 3mm

. , .
LG . GM, / /
/ .
2) : .
. . ,

. SDI . BMW,
/ .
3) : .
. ,
. S ,
.

xEV

2. xEV .
xEV .
xEV , , .
xEV . 1)
, 2) , 3)
, 4) xEV .
xEV .

37

SDI

www.nhwm.com

LG ( )

SDI ( )

: DisplaySearch, NH

: SDI, NH

GM

()
45

GM ()

()
350

Tesla Motors ()

40

300

35

250

30
25

200

20

150

15

100

10
5
0

(/)
120

Tesla Motors ()

300
250

80

200
60
150
40
20

100
50
0
'13.1 '13.4 '13.7 '13.10 '14.1 '14.4 '14.7 '14.10 '15.1 '15.4 '15.7

: Bloomberg, NH

: Bloomberg, NH

SDI

xEV

(/)
120

()

SDI ()

100
80

350

100

50
'13.1 '13.4 '13.7 '13.10 '14.1 '14.4 '14.7 '14.10 '15.1 '15.4 '15.7

()
()

(/)
120

70,000

200,000

100

60,000

150,000

60

US ()

()

50,000

80

40,000
60

30,000

100,000

40

40
50,000

20
0

0
'13.1

'13.5

'13.9

'14.1

'14.5

: Bloomberg, NH

'14.9

'15.1

'15.5

()

()
250,000

20,000

20

10,000

0
'10.6

'11.6

'12.6

'13.6

'14.6

'15.6

: HEV, PHEV, EV
: Bloomberg, EDTA, NH

38

SDI

www.nhwm.com

STATEMENT OF COMPREHENSIVE INCOME

()

(%)

Gross (%)

(GP-SG&A)
(%)
OP (%)
EBITDA

()

(%)
Net (%)

VALUATION INDEX

2014/12A 2015/12E 2016/12F 2017/12F

5,474
7,571
8,208
8,545 PER (X)
59.7
38.3
8.4
4.1
PER (High,X)
4,545
6,191
6,688
6,857
PER (Low,X)
929
1,380
1,520
1,688 PBR (X)
17.0
18.2
18.5
19.8
PBR (High,X)
858
1,370
1,346
1,308
PBR (Low,X)
71
10
174
381 PCR (X)
-85.4 1,585.3
118.6 PSR (X)

1.3
0.1
2.1
4.5 PEG (X)
604
871
862
978 PER/ EBIT (X)
129
249
259
264 PER/ EBITDA (X)
8
-27
-20
-48 EV/EBITDA (X)
-70
23
29
45 EV/EBIT (X)
190
253
251
266 Enterprise Value
199
259
433
644 EPS CAGR (3) (%)
47
57
98
146 EBITPS CAGR (3) (%)
152
203
335
499 EBITDAPS CAGR (3) (%)
-80
203
335
499 EBIT (W)
65.3
48.7 EBITDA (W)

-1.5
2.7
4.1
5.8 EPS (W)
-84
212
350
520 BPS (W)
4
-9
-15
-22 CFPS (W)
324
0
0
0 SPS (W)
244
203
335
499 DPS (W)

CASH FLOW STATEMENT

()

+ /
+ , ()
+ ()
+ ()
Gross Cash Flow
- ()

+
- (CAPEX)
+ ()
Free Cash Flow
Net Cash Flow

()

RIM & EVA

2014/12A 2015/12E 2016/12F 2017/12F

311
1,209
851
871 RIM
-80
203
335
499 Spread (FROE-COE) (%)
533
861
688
597 Residual Income
-190
-253
-251
-266
-3
0
0
0 EVA
19
0
0
0
360
873
877
982
10
399
79
42 (%)
-328
-1,523
-854
-798 - WACC (%)
42
0
0
0 EVA
-476
-800
-750
-750 DCF
-549
-716
-11
2 EBIT
-166
409
101
121 + /
-17
-314
-3
73 - CAPEX
-84
-65
-28
-48 - ()
3,886
0
0
0 Free Cash Flow for Firm
-3,969
-65
-28
-48 WACC
-103
-379
-31
26 (COD)
628
249
217
243 (COE)
69
421
401
348 WACC(%)

STATEMENT OF FINANCIAL POSITION

()

2014/12A 2015/12E 2016/12F 2017/12F

N/A
27.7
16.7
11.2
N/A
47.8
28.8
19.3
N/A
24.7
14.9
10.0
0.7
0.5
0.5
0.5
1.1
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.4
18.4
6.7
6.6
5.9
1.2
0.8
0.7
0.7
N/A
0.7
0.8
1.4
N/A
0.1
0.4
0.9
N/A
30.8
-31.8
-2.0
13.9
7.5
7.6
6.6
118.6
633.6
37.4
16.9
8,402
6,544
6,509
6,435
-271.6
38.8
20.8
7.9
64.7
248.6
41.4
12.7
10.5
0.9
-0.5
-5.5
1,238
150
2,531
5,534
10,552
12,665
12,530
14,219
-1,494
3,056
5,067
7,546
164,621 166,630 170,605 177,000
6,291
12,695
12,747
14,273
95,715 110,103 119,366 124,269
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000

2014/12A 2015/12E 2016/12F 2017/12F

-15.5
-1,466.8

-13.4
-1,034.5

-10.7
-918.7

-9.4
-787.3

5,064.8
446.6
12.4
0.9
44.9

4,761.7
405.0
8.2
-3.3
-156.5

4,574.8
255.6
5.5
-4.9
-222.5

4,454.4
358.5
7.9
-2.5
-110.4

70.8
533
-476.3
-370.6
480.6

10.3
861
-800.0
-17.5
86.2

174.1
688
-750.0
-50.7
122.9

380.6
597
-750.0
-26.8
168.5

2.7
14.6
11.5

1.9
15.2
11.5

2.1
13.6
10.3

2.2
13.7
10.4

PROFITABILITY & STABILITY

2014/12A 2015/12E 2016/12F 2017/12F

628
249
217
243 (ROE) (%)
842
867
940
978 (ROA) (%)
3,536
3,244
3,464
3,623 (ROIC) (%)
3,325
3,539
3,731
3,945 EBITDA/ (%)
7,537
8,506
8,767
9,032 EBITDA/ (%)
12,433
13,316
13,640
14,057 (%)
15,969
16,560
17,104
17,680 (%)
975
980
1,023
1,045 ()
385
397
430
448 (W)
2,254
2,298
2,451
2,532 ()/ (%)
803
803
803
803 / (%)
35
49
53
55 / (%)
1,887
2,303
2,429
2,496 EBIT/ (X)
4,142
4,601
4,880
5,028 (%)
357
357
357
357 (%)
5,033
5,033
5,033
5,033 (mn)
4,862
5,004
5,283
5,734 (W)
240
232
217
195 (W)
11,827
11,959
12,224
12,653 ()

2014/12A 2015/12E 2016/12F 2017/12F

-0.9
1.8
2.9
4.3
-0.6
1.2
2.0
2.9
12.4
8.2
5.5
7.9
5.1
7.3
7.0
7.7
3.8
5.3
5.0
5.5
0.9
1.2
1.2
1.2
-82.0
32.5
19.6
13.2
70
70
70
70
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
0.6
3.5
3.3
2.8
35.0
38.5
39.9
39.7
1,778
1,783
1,825
1,848
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.6
1.7
0.2
3.5
7.5
156.8
141.2
141.4
143.1
70
70
70
70
5,000
5,000
5,000
5,000
116,000
84,500
84,500
84,500
8,092
5,892
5,892
5,892

: 2014 SDI

39

LG (051910.KS)
Company Report 2015. 9. 1

Buy()
320,000 ()

GM , ,
16 .

2015
2015 20.8(y-y -7.8%), 1.9(y-y 46%) . Olefin,
ABS, PVC 1.7(y-y +55%) .
, IT 1,275(y-y 5%), 133(y-y -79%)
, 320,000 . , NCC
. , ECC

(15/08/31)

KOSPI
1,941.49
KOSDAQ
687.11
()
15,507.4
()
66.3
52 (15/04/22)
284,000
(15/01/07)
164,500
(60)
54.0
(2014)
2.2%

39.2%

LG 2

33.5%
8.7%

(%)

6 12

-6.2
2.2

1.7
4.1

-13.2
-7.5

Price Trend
LG
KOSPI

110
100

GM 16 , ,

234,000

90

LG GM 16
, GM, , , 40
. 20, 10,
4 16

80
70
60
'14.9

'14.12

'15.3

'15.6

15 7,650, xEV
6,000 . ,
2016 1.3, 2017 2.0, 2018 3

15 ,
16 xEV, ESS()
BEP() . ()
15 133 16 3,275, 17 4,550

Analyst

822)2229-6397, jihwan21@nhwm.com

-12

()

(%)

()

(%)

()
()

EPS
()

(%)

PER
()

PBR
()

EV/EBITDA
()

ROE
(%)

(%)

()

2013
2014
2015E
2016F
2017F

23,144
22,578
20,817
23,020
24,371

-0.5
-2.4
-7.8
10.6
5.9

1,743
1,311
1,876
2,205
2,343

7.5
5.8
9.0
9.6
9.6

1,266
868
1,325
1,593
1,701

18,637
12,631
19,522
23,579
25,207

-15.6
-32.2
54.6
20.8
6.9

16.1
14.3
12.0
9.9
9.3

1.9
1.1
1.3
1.2
1.1

8.0
5.8
5.6
5.0
4.7

11.4
7.3
10.5
11.5
11.2

48.8
47.8
43.5
38.8
34.7

1,083
1,164
709
586
383

: EPS, PER, PBR, ROE

: NH

LG

www.nhwm.com

LG
(/)
120

100
80
60
40
20
0
'10

'11

'12

'13

'14

'15E

: LG, NH

LG
()
3,500
3,000

ESS

1,000

EV/HEV Battery

2,500
500

2,000
1,500

300

1,000
500

2,000

165

55

80

500

520

600

'13

'14

'15E

1,500
1,000

0
'16F

'17F

'18F

: LG, NH

: , ICCT(international Council on Clean Transportation) 2015

41

LG

www.nhwm.com

VALUATION INDEX
()

(%)

Gross (%)

(GP-SG&A)
(%)
OP (%)
EBITDA

()

(%)
Net (%)

2014/12A 2015/12E 2016/12F 2017/12F

22,578
20,817
23,020
24,371 PER (X)
-2.4
-7.8
10.6
5.9
PER (High,X)
19,574
17,276
19,187
20,437
PER (Low,X)
3,004
3,542
3,833
3,934 PBR (X)
13.3
17.0
16.6
16.1
PBR (High,X)
1,693
1,665
1,628
1,591
PBR (Low,X)
1,311
1,876
2,205
2,343 PCR (X)
-24.8
43.1
17.5
6.3 PSR (X)
5.8
9.0
9.6
9.6 PEG (X)
2,461
3,150
3,539
3,728 PER/ EBIT (X)
-151
-153
-153
-152 PER/ EBITDA (X)
-42
-56
-48
-46 EV/EBITDA (X)
-129
-97
-105
-106 EV/EBIT (X)
20
0
0
0 Enterprise Value
1,160
1,723
2,052
2,191 EPS CAGR (3) (%)
306
383
456
486 EBITPS CAGR (3) (%)
854
1,341
1,597
1,705 EBITDAPS CAGR (3) (%)
854
1,341
1,597
1,705 EBIT (W)
-32.8
57.0
19.1
6.8 EBITDA (W)
3.8
6.4
6.9
7.0 EPS (W)
868
1,325
1,593
1,701 BPS (W)
-14
16
3
3 CFPS (W)
-29
0
0
0 SPS (W)
825
1,341
1,597
1,705 DPS (W)

CASH FLOW STATEMENT

()

+ /
+ , ()
+ ()
+ ()
Gross Cash Flow
- ()

+
- (CAPEX)
+ ()
Free Cash Flow
Net Cash Flow

()

RIM & EVA

2014/12A 2015/12E 2016/12F 2017/12F

1,994
2,498
2,144
2,183 RIM
854
1,341
1,597
1,705 Spread (FROE-COE) (%)
1,150
1,274
1,334
1,385 Residual Income
0
0
0
0 12M RIM Target Price (W)
0
0
0
0 EVA
27
0
0
0
2,291
3,008
3,389
3,576
-167
-118
-787
-907 (%)
-1,991
-1,713
-1,707
-1,667 - WACC (%)
11
0
0
0 EVA
-1,411
-1,700
-1,700
-1,700 DCF
-51
-48
-26
15 EBIT
583
798
444
483 + /
4
785
436
516 - CAPEX
-438
-300
-336
-335 - ()
0
0
0
0 Free Cash Flow for Firm
-438
-300
-336
-335 WACC
-411
484
100
180 (COD)
988
1,472
1,572
1,753 (COE)
1,164
709
586
383 WACC(%)

STATEMENT OF FINANCIAL POSITION

()

2014/12A 2015/12E 2016/12F 2017/12F

14.3
12.0
9.9
9.3
24.0
14.9
12.3
11.5
13.7
8.3
6.9
6.5
1.1
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.8
1.6
1.5
1.3
1.1
0.9
0.8
0.8
5.2
5.2
4.6
4.3
0.5
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
1.0
1.3
1.3
0.7
1.2
1.9
2.3
1.0
1.6
2.2
2.6
5.8
5.6
5.0
4.7
11.0
9.4
8.0
7.4
14,361
17,678
17,558
17,359
25.9
11.7
7.8
7.0
21.4
9.8
5.1
4.1
14.8
7.5
4.4
3.6
19,779
28,309
33,271
35,351
37,135
47,539
53,402
56,256
12,631
19,522
23,579
25,207
164,275 178,214 195,792 214,828
34,575
45,388
51,145
53,954
340,689 314,122 347,360 367,746
4,000
4,000
4,000
4,000

2014/12A 2015/12E 2016/12F 2017/12F

-5.2
-622.9
112,239

-2.8
-348.6

-1.1
-233.7

-1.3
-304.7

12,547.2 13,069.0 14,214.0 15,428.2

931.8 1,458.4 1,711.6 1,818.9
7.6
11.4
12.5
12.3
-1.7
1.3
2.6
2.3
-217.9
168.0
370.0
355.4
1,310.8
1,150
-1,411.3
-64.8
768.9

1,876.0
1,274
-1,700.0
-109.4
1,143.4

2,204.9
1,334
-1,700.0
-779.1
2,128.6

2,342.7
1,385
-1,700.0
-899.6
2,407.7

2.7
12.6
9.4

2.9
13.2
10.1

2.9
12.7
9.9

2.8
12.5
10.0

PROFITABILITY & STABILITY

2014/12A 2015/12E 2016/12F 2017/12F

988
1,420
1,520
1,700 (ROE) (%)
3,239
3,160
3,318
3,484 (ROA) (%)
8,147
8,605
9,404
10,405 (ROIC) (%)
8,700
9,164
9,564
9,908 EBITDA/ (%)
523
571
597
583 EBITDA/ (%)
9,981
10,439
10,831
11,131 (%)
18,128
19,044
20,235
21,536 (%)
2,206
2,163
2,121
2,081 ()
1,338
1,305
1,273
1,242 (W)
4,809
4,703
4,599
4,498 ()/ (%)
728
765
765
765 / (%)
110
108
105
102 / (%)
1,053
1,082
1,074
1,067 EBIT/ (X)
5,862
5,785
5,673
5,564 (%)
370
370
370
370 (%)
1,158
1,158
1,158
1,158 (mn)
10,691
11,721
13,020
14,426 (W)
126
142
145
149 (W)
12,266
13,312
14,614
16,024 ()

2014/12A 2015/12E 2016/12F 2017/12F

7.3
10.5
11.5
11.2
4.8
7.2
8.1
8.2
7.6
11.4
12.5
12.3
20.1
23.7
24.2
23.3
13.6
16.5
17.5
17.3
2.2
1.7
1.7
1.7
30.4
19.9
16.5
15.5
295
295
295
295
4,000
4,000
4,000
4,000
9.5
5.3
4.0
2.4
47.8
43.5
38.8
34.7
2,934
2,928
2,886
2,845
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
16.6
24.2
28.8
31.1
169.4
183.0
204.5
231.4
74
74
74
74
5,000
5,000
5,000
5,000
181,000 234,000 234,000 234,000
13,071
16,827
16,827
16,827

42

 (086520.KQ)
Company Report 2015. 9. 1

Hold()
7,000 ()

, . , EPS

NCA /
2015 1,122(+34.8% y-y),
78(+8.5% y-y) . 1)
NCA(LiNiCoAlO2) 2)
/
2() .

. NCA . NCA
. 2015 700 2016 855


. , SK
.
CF4, NF3 . /
.
2015 422 2016 570

(15/08/31)

7,360
IT

KOSPI
KOSDAQ
()
()
52 (15/07/02)
(15/08/21)
(60)
(2014)

1,941.49
687.11
111.1
15.1
10,350
6,300
2.0
0.00%
1.1%

(%)

18.7%
5.6%
3
-9.6
-6.4

6 12
-9.7
-17.9

-5.6
-21.7

'15.5

'15.8

Price Trend
160

140

KOSDAQ

120
100
80
60
'14.8

'14.11

'15.2

455 BW() CB()

12 BW, 13 BW, 14 CB
, EPS 17%
BW CB PER 30
. . Hold,
7,000

Analyst

02)768-7462, j.ko@nhwm.com

-12

()

(%)

()

(%)

()
()

EPS
()

(%)

PER
()

PBR
()

EV/EBITDA
()

ROE
(%)

(%)

()

2013
2014
2015E
2016F
2017F

60
83
112
143
163

-25.3
39.7
34.8
27.0
14.5

1
7
8
13
15

2.2
8.7
7.0
8.8
9.4

-8
1
4
7
10

-598
107
269
426
556

152.5
58.2
30.4

N/A
70.8
27.3
17.3
13.2

1.4
1.5
1.3
1.1
1.0

12.4
8.8
8.5
6.4
5.8

-10.7
2.0
5.0
7.5
8.2

134.9
142.1
141.2
123.9
122.6

77
83
81
59
53

: EPS, PER, PBR, ROE

: NH

www.nhwm.com

Hold, 7,000
RIM

Hold 7,000 .

7,000

(RIM: Residual Income Model) . 7,000

2015 PER 26.0, PBR 1.2 , 4.9%.

(RIM)

(: , )

2015E

2016F

2017F

2018F

2019F

2020F

2021F

2022F

2023F

2024F

2025F

2026F

Net profit
Shareholders equity

4
85

7
114

10
124

11
135

12
147

14
161

18
179

24
202

30
230

37
264

45
304

66
362

Forecast ROE (FROE)

Spread (FROE-COE)

5.0%
-7.4%

7.5%
-4.9%

8.2%
-4.3%

8.6%
-3.9%

8.6%
-3.8%

9.0%
-3.5%

10.8%
-1.6%

12.5%
0.1%

13.8%
1.3%

14.9%
2.5%

15.7%
3.3%

19.8%
7.3%

-6

-5

-5

-5

-5

-5

-3

24

Residual income
Cost of equity (COE)
Beta
Market risk premium (Rm-Rf)
Risk-free rate (Rf)

12.4%
1.1
8.0%
4.0%

Beginning shareholders equity

PV of forecast period RI
PV of continuing value
Equity value (C+P)
No of shares (common, mn)

77
-12
30
94
15,091
12m TP

Fair price (C)

7,011

Current price (C)

Upside (-downside)
Implied P/B (x)
Implied P/E (x)

7,360
-4.7%
1.3
18.7

: RIM(Residual Income Model, )

() () Valuation . .
= +
* (RIt) = t - t-1 * (Cost of Equity)t = t-1 * (ROEt - COEt)
RIM (DDM), (DCF)
Valuation Valuation .

Market Risk Premium (Guidance)

Risk Premium

Mega Cap.
M-cap 10
+ 'AAA'
5.2%

Large Cap.
M-cap
1~10 + 'A0'
6.0%

Middle Cap.
M-cap 2~1+'BBB+'
7.0%

Small Cap.
M-cap
2 +'BBB-'
8.0%

* Risk Free Rate = 4.0%()

44

www.nhwm.com

(: , %)

1Q14

2Q14

3Q14

4Q14

1Q15

2Q15

3Q15E

4Q15F

2014

2015E

2016F

15.9
5%
9.5
6.4
0.0
1.1
-170%
7%

18.3
15%
10.1
7.2
1.0
1.0
-11%
6%

22.7
24%
10.2
12.4
0.1
1.9
89%
8%

26.3
16%
11.1
15.1
0.1
3.1
63%
12%

20.4
-22%
13.1
7.3
0.0
1.4
-55%
7%

27.2
33%
17.5
9.6
0.0
1.4
1%
5%

30.4
12%
18.9
11.5
0.0
2.2
55%
7%

34.2
13%
20.4
13.8
0.0
2.8
30%
8%

83.2
40%
40.8
41.2
1.2
7.2
453%
9%

112.2
35%
70.0
42.2
0.0
7.8
9%
7%

142.5
27%
85.5
57.0
0.0
12.5
60%
9%

: , NH

BW, CB
15
14
13
12

()

()

(CB)
(CB)
(BW)
(BW)

2015.07.29
2014.04.28
2013.07.26
2011.06.01

2019.07.29
2019.04.28
2018.07.30
2016.06.16

2016.07.29 - 2019.06.29
2015.04.28 - 2019.03.28
2014.07.30 - 2018.06.30
2012.06.17 - 2016.06.16

9,210
8,341
7,651
7,030

2,389
480
484
2,134

: 2015 2
: , NH

BW/CB

(: , , )

_ (1)
_ (2)
_ (=1+2)
EPS
PER
Fully Diluted EPS
% Dilution
Fully Diluted PER

2015E

2016F

15,091
3,097
18,188

18,188
2,389
20,576

269
24.8

426
15.6

224
-17%
29.8

362
-15%
18.4

: , NH

NCA

100%

75%

7%
9%
12%

25%

5%
7%

: , NH

&

- VOCs, PFCs, N2O, NOx, NH3

-

- ,

- PFC, N2O
99%

()

- , TVOCs

26%

62%

0%
'14

50%
73%

'15E

: , NH

45

www.nhwm.com

VALUATION INDEX
()

(%)

Gross (%)

(GP-SG&A)
(%)
OP (%)
EBITDA

()

(%)
Net (%)

2014/12A 2015/12E 2016/12F 2017/12F

83
112
143
163 PER (X)
39.7
34.8
27.0
14.5
PER (High,X)
65
90
114
131
PER (Low,X)
19
22
29
33 PBR (X)
22.4
19.9
20.0
20.0
PBR (High,X)
11
14
16
17
PBR (Low,X)
7
8
13
15 PCR (X)
453.2
8.5
59.7
22.3 PSR (X)
8.7
7.0
8.8
9.4 PEG (X)
21
23
26
29 PER/ EBIT (X)
-7
-4
-5
-5 PER/ EBITDA (X)
-5
-4
-4
-4 EV/EBITDA (X)
-1
0
-1
-1 EV/EBIT (X)
-1
1
0
0 Enterprise Value
0
4
8
11 EPS CAGR (3) (%)
-1
0
0
1 EBITPS CAGR (3) (%)
1
4
7
10 EBITDAPS CAGR (3) (%)
1
4
7
10 EBIT (W)
171.8
83.2
30.4 EBITDA (W)

1.8
3.6
5.2
6.0 EPS (W)
1
4
7
10 BPS (W)
0
0
0
0 CFPS (W)
0
0
0
0 SPS (W)
1
4
7
10 DPS (W)

CASH FLOW STATEMENT

()

+ /
+ , ()
+ ()
+ ()
Gross Cash Flow
- ()

+
- (CAPEX)
+ ()
Free Cash Flow
Net Cash Flow

()

RIM & EVA

2014/12A 2015/12E 2016/12F 2017/12F

14
8
11
17 RIM
1
4
7
10 Spread (FROE-COE) (%)
14
15
14
13 Residual Income
1
-1
0
0 12M RIM Target Price (W)
0
0
0
0 EVA
0
0
0
0
23
22
26
28
-8
-14
-15
-10 (%)
-18
-8
-9
-7 - WACC (%)
0
0
0
0 EVA
-10
-8
-8
-8 DCF
0
1
0
0 EBIT
4
0
3
9 + /
-3
0
2
10 - CAPEX
3
6
34
2 - ()
1
4
22
0 Free Cash Flow for Firm
2
2
12
2 WACC
-1
6
36
11 (COD)
1
7
43
55 (COE)
83
81
59
53 WACC(%)

STATEMENT OF FINANCIAL POSITION

()

2014/12A 2015/12E 2016/12F 2017/12F

70.8
27.3
17.3
13.2
96.1
41.4
26.2
20.1
58.3
22.9
14.5
11.1
1.5
1.3
1.1
1.0
2.0
2.0
1.7
1.6
1.2
1.1
0.9
0.9
4.7
4.8
4.6
4.6
1.3
1.0
0.8
0.8
1.0
0.8
1.0
1.1
3.7
1.3
1.7
1.5
30.8
12.6
18.5
6.3
8.8
8.5
6.4
5.8
26.2
24.5
13.6
10.7
189
192
170
164
73.3
33.0
17.7
12.4
19.4
21.2
10.3
9.1
2.3
2.2
0.9
2.1
515
537
777
876
1,526
1,553
1,645
1,634
107
269
426
556
5,187
5,611
6,529
7,085
1,608
1,524
1,613
1,596
5,935
7,695
8,849
9,336
0
0
0
0

2014/12A 2015/12E 2016/12F 2017/12F

-8.6
-6.5
7,011

-6.2
-6.0

-2.2
-4.9

-1.5
-5.1

159.7
23.7
15.3
-1.4
-2.3

167.5
8.0
4.9
-2.8
-4.8

176.9
11.9
6.9
-0.1
-0.2

182.1
13.8
7.7
0.7
1.4

7.2
14
-10.4
-5.4
33.8

7.8
15
-8.0
-14.7
29.3

12.5
14
-8.0
-15.3
33.2

15.3
13
-8.0
-10.5
29.5

20.9
10.6
16.7

5.2
11.2
7.7

4.9
9.6
7.0

4.7
9.7
6.9

PROFITABILITY & STABILITY

2014/12A 2015/12E 2016/12F 2017/12F

1
7
43
55 (ROE) (%)
15
21
26
30 (ROA) (%)
57
83
140
165 (ROIC) (%)
103
99
95
91 EBITDA/ (%)
1
1
2
2 EBITDA/ (%)
128
122
116
111 (%)
185
204
255
276 (%)
88
94
111
119 ()
2
2
3
4 (W)
98
107
128
138 ()/ (%)
9
9
9
9 / (%)
2
2
3
3 / (%)
11
12
13
13 EBIT/ (X)
109
120
141
152 (%)
7
7
8
8 (%)
64
68
88
88 (mn)
6
10
17
27 (W)
0
0
0
0 (W)
77
85
114
124 ()

2014/12A 2015/12E 2016/12F 2017/12F

2.0
5.0
7.5
8.2
0.8
2.1
3.2
3.7
15.3
4.9
6.9
7.7
27.9
26.7
23.2
23.1
11.5
11.1
10.4
10.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
108.5
95.9
51.9
43.1
142.1
141.2
123.9
122.6
97
103
120
128
6.3
4.2
3.7
3.6
1.4
1.7
2.4
2.6
58.8
77.0
108.6
119.0
15
15
17
17
500
500
500
500
7,550
7,360
7,360
7,360
106
111
111
111

46

 (066970.KQ)
Company Report 2015. 9. 1

Not Rated
(15/08/31)

.
. 1) -2 90% , 2) 70%
. , xEV/ESS

2015 2,500(+2% y-y),
10(+4% y-y) . 2

2 NCM(LiNiCoMnO2) . NCM
LNO(LiNiO2) LCO(LiCoO2) LMO(LiMnO2)

-2 90% .
.
70%

6,550
IT

KOSPI
KOSDAQ
()
()
52 (15/04/29)
(14/12/16)
(60)
(2014)

1,941.49
687.11
93.1
14.2
8,710
5,450
0.5
0.36%
2.4%

23.1%
3

(%)

-0.8
2.7

6 12
-7.9
-16.3

-9.3
-24.7

'15.5

'15.8

Price Trend
140

120

KOSDAQ

100
80

60
'14.8

'14.11

'15.2

-2
-2 .
xEV ESS .

xEV/ESS -2

.

Analyst
02)768-7462, j.ko@nhwm.com

-12

()

(%)

()

(%)

()
()

EPS
()

(%)

PER
()

PBR
()

EV/EBITDA
()

ROE
(%)

(%)

()

2013
2014
2015E
2016F
2017F

226
246
250
257
265

0.8
8.7
1.8
2.6
3.1

-3
1
1
3
4

-1.4
0.4
0.4
1.0
1.5

-7
-1
0
1
2

-547
-59
7
65
129

876.4
97.2

N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
50.9

1.7
1.4
1.6
1.6
1.6

26.2
14.9
16.4
15.1
13.8

-15.1
-1.5
0.2
1.6
3.1

161.2
132.1
133.8
133.8
131.4

61
59
51
44
36

: EPS, PER, PBR, ROE

: NH


- 2 .
, ,
. 2013 1 TFT-LCD BLU() . 2015
20.74% , 2.34% .

2014 2,457(+8.7% y-y),

10( y-y)

0.3%

100%

3.0%

4.0%

6.4%

75%

2014 2
50%

95.7%, 4.0%

92.3%

91.6%

95.7%

92.3%

'12

'13

'14

'15.2H

25%
0%
: , NH

2014 A 74%, B 23%,

100%

3%

2%

75%

47%

4%

3%

6%

26%

23%

19%

70%

74%

75%

'13

'14

'15.2H

50%
52%

25%
0%

'12

: , NH

()

(LCD BLU++) ()

(2 ) ()

()

()

300

250

4
2

200

0
150
-2
100

-4

50

-6

-8
'00

'01

'02

: , NH

'03

'04

'05

'06

'07

'08

'09

'10

'11

'12

'13

'14

'15E

www.nhwm.com

-2

(mAh/g)

($/Kg)

LCO

NCM

NCA

LMO

LFP

LiCoO2

145

25~28

Umicore, Nichia

LiNiCoMnO2

120

,
20~23
,
Umicore, Nichia

LiNiCoAlO2

160

~21

Nichia, Toda

LiMnO2

100

8~9

Nichia, BYD

LiFePO4

150

~20

A123, BYD

: , NH

49

www.nhwm.com

SDI

034220.KS

2015.09.01

Buy

130,000(12)
Analyst

2015.09.01

()
300,000

2013.10.28

Buy

240,000(12)

250,000

2013.07.29

Buy

200,000(12)

200,000

2013.04.29

Buy

165,000(12)

Buy

190,000(12)

150,000

2011.10.19

(12M)

100,000
50,000
0
'13.8 '13.11 '14.2

034220.KS

2015.09.01

Hold

7,000(12)

'14.5

'14.8 '14.11 '15.2

'15.5

'15.8

()
15,000
12,000
9,000
6,000

3,000

(12M)

0
'13.8

LG

051910.KS

2015.04.20

Buy

320,000(12)

2015.03.25

Buy

280,000(12)

2015.01.19

Buy

260,000(12)
Analyst

2014.07.08

Buy

370,000(12)

2014.04.21

Buy

320,000(12)

2014.03.28

Buy

330,000(12)

2014.01.09

Buy

350,000(12)

2013.10.01

Buy

380,000(12)

'13.11

'14.2

'14.5

'14.8

'14.11

'15.2

'15.5

'15.3

'15.6

'15.8

()
400,000
300,000
200,000

100,000
0
'13.9

(12M)
'13.12

'14.3

'14.6

'14.9

'14.12

50

www.nhwm.com

(Stock Ratings)
1. (Ratings): 12
l Buy
: 15%
l Hold : -15% ~ 15%
l Sell
: -15%
2. . (2015 8 28 )
l
Buy

Hold

Sell

67.2%

31.1%

1.7%

- . .

Compliance Notice
l 1% .
l 3 .
l "LG" ELW LP() .
l .
l "" Coverage , . , .
l , .

.
. , , , , .
, (www.nhwm.com) .

51