THE WORLD BANK GROUP IN MONGOLIA

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56. .............................................. 36
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59.
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60. .............................................................. 38
61. NEER REER 2014 . ............................................ 38
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63. .... 41
64. .................... 42
65. . ......... 42
66. 88 ......................................................... 43
67. 82 ................................... 43
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69.
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70. : 2010 14 ....................................................... 52
71. : 2012 - 14 ................................................................ 53
72. : 2010 -14.................................................... 53
73. : 2010 - 14 .................................................................................................. 53
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Overall GDP
Non-mining
Mining

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35

Final consumption

Gross capital formation

Net exports

GDP growth (%)

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30

30

20

25

10

20

2014

Q2-15

Q1-15

Q4-14

Q3-14

Q2-14

II

Q1-14

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Q4-13

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Q3-13

Q2-13

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Q1-13

2011
2012
2013
: , -

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Q3-12

Q2-12

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(%)

Y/Y monthly production growth of key commodities and mining

industrial production (3 month rolling sum, %)

60%
50%

Mining production

Coal

Crude Oil

Copper concentrates
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60

Gold

40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
2011

2012

2013

2014

Coal
Crude oil
Copper concentrates
Mining industrial production

2015 (JanSep)

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10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50

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2011

II III IV
2012

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Construction
Electricity, comm. & residual
Non-mining GDP growth (%)

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25%

20

20%

15

15%

10

10%

Manufacturing

Electricity

5%

0%

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-10%
-15%

Q1-11
Q2-11
Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
Q2-14
Q3-14
Q4-14
Q1-15
Q2-15

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-10

Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-15
Sep-15

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Manufacturing
Wholesale & retail trade
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Growth contribution of investment (%p): LHS

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20
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-20

Q2-11
Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
Q2-14
Q3-14
Q4-14
Q1-15
Q2-15

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100
80
60
40
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-40
-60
-80

Government Budget

DBM

FDI

Others

70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

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(%p)

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Private consumption (%p)
Final Consumption growth (y/y, %)

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20

30%

15

20%

10

Real HH Monetary Income (yoy, %): National

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10%

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Q1-11
Q2-11
Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
Q2-14
Q3-14
Q4-14
Q1-15
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2010.01
2010.02
2010.03
2010.04
2011.01
2011.02
2011.03
2011.04
2012.01
2012.02
2012.03
2012.04
2013.01
2013.02
2013.03
2013.04
2014.01
2014.02
2014.03
2014.04
2015.01
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Energy and fuels

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bread, flour and cereals
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15

Headline inflation
Non-Food inflation

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Food inflation

15%
10
10%
5
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0
0%

Sep-15

Jul-15

May-15

Mar-15

Jan-15

Nov-14

Sep-14

Jul-14

May-14

Mar-14

Jan-14

Nov-13

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Sep-15

May-15

Jan-15

Sep-14

May-14

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Total
revenues

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CIT

VAT

Excise Customs Royalty Non-tax

taxes
duties
revenues

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On-budget spending (% to GDP)

DBM commercial (% to GDP)
DBM non-commercial (% to GDP)
DBM share to public spending (%)
DBM-related external debt (% to GDP)

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2012
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China Development Bank ( ): Aug 2014 present

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M2 , (%p): 2010-2015

M2 , (%p): 2010-2015

Non-bank private sector

Net foreign assets

Govt & Public Sector

Net domestic credit (y/y, %)

100%

Foreign currency deposits

MNT deposits

Currency outside banks

M2 growth (%, y/y)

80%
70%

75%

60%
50%

50%

40%
25%

30%
20%

0%

10%
0%

-25%

-10%

Apr-15

Sep-15

Nov-14

Jan-14

Jun-14

Aug-13

Oct-12

Mar-13

May-12

Jul-11

Dec-11

Feb-11

Apr-10

Sep-10

Nov-09

Jan-09

Sep-15

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-14

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-13

Jan-13

May-13

Sep-12

Jan-12

May-12

Sep-11

Jan-11

May-11

Sep-10

Jan-10

May-10

Sep-09

Jan-09

May-09

Jun-09

-20%

-50%

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BoM claims on government

BoM claims on companies
BoM claims on non-bank FIs
BoM claims on banks
% share of BoM credit to total domestic credit: RHS

60%
50%

4.0

Credit to Corporate Sector

BoM deposit to banks
BoM holdings of mortgage loans
Housing mortgage credit to banks
Credit to PSP
Reserve money growth(y/y, %): RHS

100%

40%
3

3.0
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50%
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Composition of monetary base (in trillion MNT): 2009-2015

Net claims on non-govt entities
NFA

Reserve money y/y growth composition (%p): 2009-2015

BoM claims on non-govt sectors
NFA

Net claims on govt

Monetary base

Net claims on govt

Reserve money y/y growth (%)

250%
200%

150%
100%

50%
0%

-50%
-100%

-2

-150%

Sep-15

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-14

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-13

Jan-13

May-13

Sep-12

Jan-12

May-12

Sep-11

Jan-11

May-11

Sep-10

Jan-10

May-10

Sep-09

Jan-09

Sep-15

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-14

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-13

Jan-13

May-13

Sep-12

Jan-12

May-12

Sep-11

Jan-11

May-11

Sep-10

Jan-10

May-10

Sep-09

Jan-09

May-09

May-09

-200%

-4

Source: BoM, WB staff estimates

.
9 18
9 4.3 1 - .
2013 2014 2014 60
. 1.5 2

2013
90
.


2012 2 2013
21 . ( 26)
.
2014
, .
2015
. ( 27)
26.

.

- (%): 2009-15

Apr-15

Sep-15

Nov-14

Jan-14

0%

-2

Jun-14

10%

Aug-13

20%

Oct-12

30%

Mar-13

40%

May-12

Apr-15

Sep-15

Nov-14

Jan-14

Jun-14

Aug-13

Oct-12

Mar-13

May-12

Jul-11

Dec-11

Feb-11

Apr-10

Sep-10

Nov-09

0%

Jan-09

Jun-09

5%

50%

Jul-11

10%

60%

10

Dec-11

70%

12

Feb-11

15%

80%

14

Apr-10

20%

16

Nov-09

25%

10

Jan-09

30%

12

Jun-09

14

Securitized mortgages: LHS

Bank loans: LHS
BoM credit to banks: LHS
Loan growth (incl. securitized mortgages): RHS

(trillion MNT)

trillion MNT

Bank loans to the private sector: LHS

BoM funding in % to total funding sources of banks: RHS

Sep-10

( ): 2009-15

27.
2014 .

-10%

: , -

. 2013-14
,
. 2014

. , 3
. 33
.
.
5 .
.


28.

.

29.
.

, (%p)

, (%p)

Deposits

External borrowing

Government deposits

Local currency

BoM funding

Foreign currency

80%

Total private bank deposit growth (%)

50

70%
60%

40

50%

30

40%
20

30%
20%

10

10%

Jul-15

Sep-15

May-15

Jan-15

Mar-15

Nov-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

May-14

Jan-14

Mar-14

Nov-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

May-13

Jan-13

Mar-13

Nov-12

Jul-12

Sep-12

May-12

Jan-12

Sep-15

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-14

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-13

Jan-13

May-13

Sep-12

Jan-12

May-12

Sep-11

Jan-11

May-11

Sep-10

-20

Jan-10

-20%

May-10

-10%

-10

Mar-12

0%

: , -

, 125
. ,
2012 100 2014 135
.
, ,
,
.
.
9
19.1 12 .
2014 .
2015
. 1
14-16 .
30. ,
.

31.
.

(%)

( ):
2010-2015

Bank loan growth (y/y, %): LHS

Bank deposit growth (y/y, %): LHS
Loan to deposit ratio (%): RHS

Excess reserves excl. CBB

Claims on government
Central Bank bills
Excess reserve to deposit ratio (%): RHS

80%

150%

70%

135%

60%

120%
105%

50%

90%

40%

60%
50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

75%

30%

60%

20%

: , -

Sep-15

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-14

May-14

Jan-14

Sep-13

May-13

Jan-13

Sep-12

May-12

Jan-12

Sep-11

Sep-15

May-15

Jan-15

Sep-14

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-13

Jan-13

May-13

Sep-12

Jan-12

May-12

Sep-11

May-11

Jan-11

Sep-10

Jan-10

0%

May-10

-10%

May-11

15%

Jan-11

30%

0%

Sep-10

10%

May-10

45%


. 2014
2014 7 2015 2
2 10.5 13 .
6 10.9 9 13.7
. 1 4 10
16 . 4
- 9 14.4
5 .

. 2014 12.2
9 13.1 .
,
, . 2015
.
2014 18-19 8
20.1 .

. : (i)
; (ii)
.
32. 2015
.

33. ,
.

(%)

, (, %)

Overnight loans

BoM policy rate

Interbank deposit rate

12 week T-bills

Interest spread (lending - deposit rate, bps): RHS

BoM policy rate
Avg bank lending rate
Avg bank deposit rate

1400
1200
1000
800
600

Sep-15

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-14

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-13

Jan-13

May-13

Sep-12

Jan-12

May-12

Sep-11

Jan-11

May-11

Sep-10

Jan-10

400

May-10

Sep-15

Jan-15

May-15

200

Sep-14

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-13

Jan-13

11

May-13

11

Sep-12

13

Jan-12

13

May-12

15

Sep-11

15

Jan-11

17

May-11

17

Sep-10

19

Jan-10

21

19

May-10

21

. , ,
. , 3
8.12 .
4.4 14.1 . ,
,
. , ,
. ,
.
. 2
3 23.3 2.7 .
.


,
. ( 34)
8 30
. 9
27 9 16.7 .
8 2
. 9
2,481 75
. 1,746
90 . ( 35)
-
. - 8
30 10 20
.
, .

.
34. ,
.
, (y/y, %)

160%

Agriculture
Manufacturing
Construction

140%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-40%

Mining and quarrying

Wholesale and retail
Mortgage loans

35.
8
.
Outstanding mortgage loans (trillion MNT)
Housing mortgage program (tn MNT): LHS
Commercial mortgages (tn MNT): LHS
3.5
3.0

Weighted avg mortgage lending rates(%): RHS

18
16
14

2.5

12

2.0

10

1.5

1.0

6
4

0.5
0.0

2
0

. 9
34 830 . ( 36)
2015 .
2014 5 9 7 . ( 37)
3.1 5.1
. .
2014 317 9 829
2 .
2014 2.2 9 7.1 .


36. 2015

37.
.

( ): 2009-15

(%)

Size of NPLs (billions MNT)

Size of past-due loans (billions MNT)

1,000

18

800

15

600

12

400

NPLs/outstanding loans(%)
Past-due loans/Outstanding Loans(%)

200

Sep-14

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-13

Jan-13

May-13

Sep-12

Jan-12

May-12

Sep-11

Jan-11

May-11

Sep-10

Jan-10

May-10

Sep-09

Jan-09

May-09

Sep-08

Jan-08

May-08

Sep-14

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-13

Jan-13

May-13

Sep-12

Jan-12

May-12

Sep-11

Jan-11

May-11

Sep-10

Jan-10

May-10

Sep-09

Jan-09

May-09

Sep-08

Jan-08

May-08

* .
: , , -

. 2014 7-8
. : (i)
(120 ); (ii)
1 . 4
16 50 .
2016 , 2018 .
3. 2016
10 1 2016
- . :
a.

2016 7 , 2017-18 5-7

,

,

b.

,
.

,
, .

c. ,
,
.
,

d.
. ,
,
. -
2016
.
38. 2 ()
( )
100%

NFA

NDA

M2

39.
, (
)

80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
-60%
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2011 2012 2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

85
75
65
55
45
35
25
15
5
-5
-15
-25

Broad money growth (m2)

Loans incl MBS

Reserve money
Loans

Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2011 2012 2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

: ,
: , ,

.
. 2011-2013
- 25
. ,
, 2014 .
14.4 2014
- 25 11.7 . ( 40)
2015 . 9 486
. 1.4 . .

. 9 318.3
957 . .
610 . 1,214 . .

.
964 . , 691 .
. ( 41)


40. 2014
.

41.
2015 .

, - : 2008-2014

, ( ., 3 )

20%

300

Trade balance
Income balance

200

Services Balance

10%

Current account balance

100

0%

0
-100

-10%

-200

-20%

Current Transfers
Income Balance
Services Balance
Trade Balance
Real GDP Growth (%)

-30%
-40%

-300
-400
-500

2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014f
: , , -

.
.

.
,
. 2013 40
, ,

.
42. ,

43. 2013
.

, , 2 , (%): 3

200

2200
2000

100
1800

0
-100

1600

-200

1400

-300
1200

-400

Jun-15

Sep-15

Dec-14

Mar-15

Jun-14

Sep-14

Dec-13

Mar-14

Jun-13

Sep-13

Dec-12

Mar-13

Jun-12

Sep-12

Jun-11

1000

Sep-11

-500

Mar-11

Jun-15

Sep-15

Dec-14

Mar-15

Jun-14

Sep-14

Dec-13

Mar-14

Jun-13

Sep-13

Dec-12

Mar-13

Jun-12

Sep-12

Dec-11

Mar-12

Jun-11

70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%

Sep-11

700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
-100
-200
-300
-400

Mar-11

CA Balance (millions of US$)

Trade Balance (millions of US$)
Nominal Exchange Rate (MNT/USD): Right Axis

300

Dec-11

Net FDI inflows (mn $)

Mar-12

Current Account balance (mn $)

M2 growth(y/y, %)

: , , -

.
2014 17.6
9 29.4 .
2015 . ,


35 9 12 .
35 8 9
. 2
.
44.
.

45.
.

, (%): 3

(%): 3

70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-14

Apr-14

Aug-14

Dec-13

Apr-13

Aug-13

Dec-12

Apr-12

Aug-12

Dec-11

Apr-11

Aug-11

Dec-10

Apr-10

% change in terms of trade (y/y)

Export price index (y/y, %)
Import price index (y/y, %)

Aug-10

Jun-15

Sep-15

Mar-15

Dec-14

Jun-14

Sep-14

Mar-14

Dec-13

Jun-13

Sep-13

Dec-12

Jun-12

Sep-12

Mar-12

60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50

Mar-13

Exports (y/y, %)
Imports (y/y, %)

: , , , -

,
, .
9 32
22.1 , 12.2 .
34.5 . 9
96 . 9
1.9 . 9 36.7
. 99 .
9 41.4 .
16 19 .

,
.
.

(%): 3

Sep-15

May-15

Jan-15

Sep-14

Crude oil

May-14

Jan-14

Sep-13

Coal

May-13

Jan-13

Sep-12

Jan-12

May-12

Jan-11

Sep-11

Copper concentrates

160%
140%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
-60%

Sep-15

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-14

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-13

Jan-13

May-13

Jan-12

May-12

Sep-11

Jan-11

May-11

240%
210%
180%
150%
120%
90%
60%
30%
0%
-30%
-60%

Sep-12

Copper concentrate exports

Coal exports
Oil exports

47. ... 2015

.

May-11

46. ,

.
(%): 3

: - , , -

. -
2012 . ,
2014 29.5 1-9
25.6 . 2014
, ,
.
17.5 17 9 . 40
, 35.5 .

48.
2012 .
Imports of durable goods and mineral products (y/y % change, 3
month rolling sum)

49. 2014
.
Imports of consumption goods and mineral products (y/y %
change, 3 month rolling sum)
140%
120%
100%
80%

Food product
Consumption goods
Mineral product

60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-40%

Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15

-60%

: - , , -

.

. 2012 4.4 . 2014 382
. 2013 .

. 2015 9 156.5 .


526.4 . . ( 50) 227
. 191 .
- .

.
2012 .
2014 2 940 . .
462 . (162 .
, 300 . ).
2014 482 .
. 2015 . 5 6
660 .
. 500 .
, 9.375 5 .

5 . 1 (161 .) 6 7.5
. 630 . 9
.
1.3 . . ( 51)
50.

.

51. 1 .

.

: .

( .)

1.5

(1.5)

2.0

1.0

(1.0)

1.5

0.5

(0.5)

0.0

0.0

(0.5)

0.5

(1.0)

1.0

Net portfolio investment + loans

Central bank's net debt-financing

1.0

Net debt financing needs (CA deficit - FDI inflows): LHS

Net FDI inflows: LHS
Current acccount balance (in reversed values): RHS

0.5

0.0

(0.5)
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

: , -

2015 .
9 743 .
172 . . 4 320
. ,
5-8 445 . .
.
9 298 .
300 . .
9 . 4 1,257
. 8 1,728 . .
.


300 .
300 . 9 1,412
. . 3
. ( 53).
52.
2015 .

53. 5-8
9 .

, ( .):3

4,500
4,000

-0.8

Thousands

0.8

Overall BoP Balance

Financial and Capital Account
CA deficit (values in reverse order): RHS

( .)

3,500
3,000

0.6

-0.6

0.4

-0.4

0.2

-0.2

1,500

0.0

0.0

1,000

(0.2)

0.2

(0.4)

0.4

2,500
2,000

Jun-15

Sep-15

Dec-14

Mar-15

Jun-14

Sep-14

Mar-14

Dec-13

Jun-13

Sep-13

Mar-13

Dec-12

Jun-12

Sep-12

Mar-12

Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-15
Sep-15

500

: , -

. 2014 2015
2015 6
- 180 .
- 162 . ( 54)
- 70
12 .
2014 - 41 , 2014 6 36 6
46.5 . 2014
, 5
. ,
2014 6 - 8.5 6 - 15.5

. 6 -
29.5 6 30.4 (
).


54. 2014 2

, (-
)
100%
80%

Private sector debt

BoM foreign debt
Government and government guaranteed debt
External debt excl. inter-company lending

55.
.
, ( .)
3.0

Official reserves (+ means drawdown)

Others (incl. errors & omissions)
FDI & equity investment
Debt-financing

2.0
1.0

60%

0.0

20%

(1.0)

0%

(2.0)

2010.Q4
2011.Q1
2011.Q2
2011.Q3
2011.Q4
2012.Q1
2012.Q2
2012.Q3
2012.Q4
2013.Q1
2013.Q2
2013.Q3
2013.Q4
2014.Q1
2014.Q2
2014.Q3
2014.Q4
2015.Q1
2015.Q2

40%

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

: , -

4.
.
( )-
- 3 2 . 2011 24.1
2014 58 . ( ,
, ) 2011 - 32.7
2014 76.6 .
,
. 2011 - 20 (5
.) 2014 42.7 (1.9 .)- . ( 57)

( -1.5 .,
580 ., -30 ,
-460 .).
122 . .
- 4 14 .
.
2012 0.8 2014 2.5
. _
2014 - 55 2011 23
.
. 2
2012 90
.
2012 .
( ) 2011 2014
- 24 . - 18
. ( 56)
1/3- .

56.

57. ...
.

(- )

, (- )

100%

60%

80%

50%

60%

Foreign central bank

Commercial external guarantees
Commercial external debt
Multilateral and Bilateral debt

40%

40%

30%

20%
20%
0%
2010
2011
Govt external debt
BoM's foreign debt
SOE debt

2012

2013
2014
2015f
Govt external guarantees
Govt domestic debt

10%
0%
2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

: , , -

: -

.
2013
. 2013 .
2013 8
337 . , 8
. , ,
. 2013 3 2015 3
. 1410 1984 , 40
.
, 2013-14 3
. .

.
500 .
4, 5 7
1862 . 6
. . 6

, . 6
7 . 7 1985 .
2000 7
1,900-2,000 . ( 60)
9 5.5 , 6-10 1.4 .
. ,
10 55 ,
11.4 . 7
.
, 10
21.8 8.3 . ( 59)


2014 .
3 2014
. NEER REER 4

. ( 61)
58. 2013

(USD/MNT): June 2012-Oct 2015
2100

59.
.
, (2014
Dec=100)

2000

130

1900

125

1800

120

1700

Indonesia

Chile

Malaysia

Myanmar

Mongolia

China

South africa

Euro

115

1600

110

1500
1400

105

1300

100
95

: ,

60. .
, (
.)

61. NEER REER 2014

.
NEER and REER (Dec 2012 =100): Jan 2011-Aug 2015

2,000

95

200

1,900

90

150

1,800

85

100

1,700

80

50

1,600

75

1,500

70

(50)

1,400

65

(100)

1,300

Nominal exchange rate (MNT/USD)

NEER
REER

100

Depreciation

Oct-15

Jan-15

Jul-14

Oct-14

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-13

Oct-13

Jan-13

Apr-13

Jul-12

Oct-12

Miilions of USD

Jan-12

Apr-12

Jul-15

250

Apr-15

105

300

USD/MNT: RHS
2,100

The BoM's net sales of foreign exchange: LHS

: , -

(NEER) .
(REER)
. NEER REER
.

2015-16
,

2015 3.3 2.3
. , 3
.
2015 , 2 2
. , , -
, 2
. ,
.
, .
, .
,
.
- 14
.
20 - 0.4 .
2015
2016 , .
.
, 10 -
1 .
, ,
2016
0.8 .
,
2016-17 ,
. , -
,
2018 .
. 2016 ,
2 ,

, .

.
,
2015-16
. ,
2016 . 2-3
20 ,
.
, 2016

2015-16
.
2015 2015 100
, 2016 2016 400
. 2015-16

- 5

.

2014 - 11
2015 - 8-9 , 2016 - 6-7
. 2015 , 600

2 300-400
.
- 3 , - 1-1.5 .

2015
. -
5 ,
,
.

.
,
. ,
2 .

. 2017


1,080 .
, .
.
4 1,267 . 8
1,728 9 300
. 1,412 .
.
,
,
2 .

.
2015 - 60 .


. 10 2016
- 5 .

62.

.

63.
.

(
.)

,
(- )
Baseline
20% FX rate shock

2,500
Public sector

Private sector

2,000

90%

10% FX rate shock

80%

1,500

70%

1,000

60%
50%

Note: The fx rate shock means a 20% further depreciation in

2016 against the US$ compared with the baselince projecton.

500
40%
2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f

: , , -

. 10
, 2015
6.9 2014 7.4 , 2016 6.7 , 2017 6.5
.
. ,
. 2016
.

.
,


.

.

. ,
.
2015
.

.

2020

2019

2018

2017

20

-1,000

2016

40

1,000

2015

60

3,000

2014

80

5,000

2013

100

7,000

2012

120

9,000

2011

140

11,000

2010

160

13,000

2009

15,000

2008

- (%p)

65.
.

2007

64.

Copper ($/ton): LHS

Coal (Australian, $/ton): RHS
Crude oil (average, US$/bbl): RHS
: , 2015 10

,
,
. ,
. 2014
- 42 , 87.9
.
,
, . 2014 ,
82 , - 35 . 2014
37 2017
. . 2014
13 .
9 .
2016 ,
10 - 3-
.


66. 88

67. 82
.

(%)

(%)

180.0

Y/Y export growth to China (%): LHS

Export share of China (% of total exports): RHS

100
90

120.0

80

90.0

70

60.0

60

30.0

50

0.0

40

-30.0

30

Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15

150.0

90%
75%
60%
45%
30%
15%
0%
-15%
-30%

Crude oil
Coal
Copper concentrates

Other commodities
Gold
Commodity export growth (y/y)

: , -

-
4.
10 ,
. -

. -
,
.

. 10
,
.

2017 .

. 5
. - 180
.
.
10 ( ) 2012 12
5.2 2015 10 8.5 3 .
2012

10 ,
-
.
5
- 10 1 ,
1.06-1.44
.


,
. 2013
- .
10
2013 . ,
.
6 6 7
.

. ( 69)
68. .

69.

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Mongolias major bond yields (%)

Sovereign bond spreads (in basis points: 1% = 100 bps)

12

Chinggis 10yr

Chinnigs 5 yr

Sovereign Dim sum

DBM 5 yr

SRI LANKA
VIETNAM
MONGOLIA (Chinggis 10yr)
JP Morgan EMBI sovereign spread

800
700
600

10

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400

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4

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