Project 1: Life Expectancy

Ellen Bauer

Fertility

Mean
Median
Standard Deviation

2.783
2.277
1.393

The histogram of the fertility rate is skewed to the right. The tail of the histogram
explains the difference between the mean and the median, with the larger fertility rates
pulling the mean fertility rate up. The low standard deviation reflects the fact that the data
is not very dispersed.

Life Expectancy

Mean
Median
Standard Deviation

72.167
74.25
7.503

The histogram is skewed to the left. The tail of the histogram explains the difference
between the mean and median, with the lower life expectancies pulling the mean down.
The higher standard deviation reflects that the data is dispersed over 40 years, compared
to fertility rate, where the average rate stretches only from 0 to 8.

Regression

Least Square Regression Line

Linear Correlation Coefficient
Coefficient of Determination

-4.309x + 84.161
-0.800
0.640

The scatter plot suggests there is a correlation between the fertility rate and the life
expectancy rate. On average, the lower the fertility rate, the higher the life expectancy.
The line -4.309 + 84.161 is the best linear interpretation of the data. This is accurate
because the line has a negative slope and the scatter plot also moves downward as it
moves to the right. The linear correlation coefficient shows how strong the correlation is
between the data. In this case, the closer the value is to -1, the higher the correlation. The
linear correlation coefficient value of -0.800 shows there is a pretty strong correlation.
Finally, the coefficient of determination shows how much of the data actually fits into the
model. In this case, its about 64% of the data.

Life Expectancy of the United States

According to the least square regression line, the average life expectancy of the United
States should be 75.7 years. The actual value, however, is 78.9 years. As the coefficient of
determination shows, only about 64% of the data fits the model of the least square
regression line, so that explains why the life expectancy is actually higher than the
predicted value. Also, the model only takes into account fertility when there are many
other factors that affect life expectancy.
Correlation vs. Causation
Causation is a direct relationship between two variables. Variable one absolutely causes
the change in variable two. Correlation, however, is less formal. It means there is some
sort of relationship between the two variables, but it cannot be concluded that variable
one is directly causing the change in variable two. In the case of this study, it cannot be
determined that fertility rate causes life expectancy to go up or down. The main reason is
that the life expectancy rate encompasses both males and females, while the fertility rate
only encompasses women. Also, there are so many other factors, such as poverty, war,
healthcare, and education that affect life expectancy.
Individual Life Expectancy
The model cannot be used to determine the life expectancy of an individual because there
are so many factors that come into play. For example, the individual could be wealthier
than most others in the country and therefore have access to better medical care. Or, the
individual could have a pre-existing medical condition that would drastically shorten
their life. The individual could also engage in dangerous habits, such as smoking or
unhealthy eating. All of these factors can influence life expectancy and they have nothing
to do with the fertility rate.

Change Over Time

In 1953, most of the world (minus Europe, Australia, the United States, and a few other
high income countries) had very high fertility rates and a lower life expectancy. By 1973,
however, Latin America, Asia, and the Middle East had begun to move towards a lower
fertility rate and a higher life expectancy. By 2013, most of the world has a lower fertility
rate and a higher life expectancy, with only a few very poor African nations still having a
high fertility rate and a low life expectancy.
Conclusion
For the most part, it can be determined that fertility has a relationship with life
expectancy. And this not surprising because in countries where there is lack of medical
care (leading to a lower life expectancy), there is also a lack of education about birth
control methods. However, the data also shows that many countries that are considered
developing or third world really do not have the high fertility rate and low life expectancy
that many people believe. As Hans Roling said in his video, most of his students, and I
would assume many people in high-income countries, are really uneducated about the
state of health in countries we consider third world. Altogether, this was an interesting,
and at times surprising, analysis of data.