Professional Documents
Culture Documents
savremenih
sukoba
i
trokovi
naoruanja
Nemanja
Duverovi
Studije mira, FPN, 5. mart 2015.
Oruani sukobi
Mir sukob nasilje
Definicija oruanih sukoba
Vrste sukoba (po akterima, uzrocima i teritoriji)
Novi ratovi
Trendovi u sukobima
Broj sukoba po akterima
Sukobi po vrsti nekompatibilnosti
Distribucija oruanih sukoba po regionima
Zone rata i mira
rtve sukoba
Poginuli u oruanim sukobima
Trokovi naoruanja
Izdavanja za naoruanje
Porast trokova za naoruanje
Izvoz i uvoz naoruanja
Oruani sukobi
!"#$%&'()#&*$")'+("&(,-.,(#&(&/'"#&/$($%!%$
Svet u 2011
MIR
nega3van-pozi3van
trajni
(samoodriv)
-
privremeni
kazneni
-
velikoduni
NASILJE
direktno
(ziko
nasilje)
strukturalno
(eksploatacija,
represija,
dominacija,
siromatvo)
kulturno
(simboliko
opravdanje
direktnog
i
strukturalnog
nasilja)
SUKOB
simetrini
-
asimetrini
latentni
-
manifestni
oni
o
kojima
se
moe/ne
moe
pregovara3
Novi ratovi - 1
Postmoderni
rat
maine
zamenjuju
vojnike
ubijanje
sa
distance,
nema
borbe
prsa
u
prsa
vea
ubojitost,
brzina,
preciznost,
oruja
Informacija
kao
kljuni
vojni
resurs/stratosfera
postaje
etvr3
front
manipulacija
medijama
(CNN,
Fox)
Novi ratovi - 2
Ratovi
tree
vrste
-
Kalevi
HolsO,
Meri
Kaldor
novac
i
resursi
kao
mo3v
nove,
tribalne,
ideologije
mobilizacija
pomou
straha,
religije
i
korupcije
deca
vojnici,
plaenici
podrka
maje,
dijaspore
i
regionalnih
sila
nova
ratna
ekonomija
greed
and
grievence
Trendovi u sukobima
Correlates of War
2011
Armed
Conflicts
by
Incompatibility,
1946
Sukobi po vrsti nekomatibilnosti, 1946-2010
Government and Territory
Territory
Government
60
No. of conflicts
50
40
30
20
10
0
Year
(c) UCDP 2012
Broj
oruanih
sukoba
po
regionima,
1946-2010
Armed Conflicts by Region, 1946-2011
Europe
Middle East
Asia
Africa
Americas
60
No. of conflicts
50
40
30
20
10
0
Year
(c) UCDP 2012
jake
drave
Severna
Amerika,
Zapadna
Evropa
Zone
mira
stabilne
drave
Karipska
ostrva,
Okeanija,
Istona
Evropa
Zone
ne-rata
nestabilne
drave
Jugoistona
i
istona
Azija,
Juna
Amerika
Zone
rata
neuspele
drave
Afrika,
bivi
SSSR,
Bliski
Istok,
Centralna
Amerika,
Juna
Azija,
Balkan
(HolsO
1996)
rtve sukoba
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
1970
1968
1966
1964
1962
1960
1958
1956
1954
1952
1950
1948
1946
800000
Battle-deaths
700000
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
Battle-deaths
4500000
4000000
3500000
3000000
2500000
2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
2005
2002
1999
1996
1993
1990
1987
1984
1981
1978
1975
1972
1969
1966
1963
1960
1957
1954
1951
1948
1945
1942
1939
1936
1933
1930
1927
1924
1921
1918
1915
1912
1909
1906
1903
1900
Kineski
graanski
Korejski
rat
Vijetnam
Avganistan
Iran
Irak
19461949
19501953
19551975
19782002
19801988
1,200,000
1,254,811
2,097,705
562,995
644,500
Trokovi naoruanja
Izdavanja za naoruanje
Naoruanje u brojkama
U
2013.
nije
dolo
do
poveanja
trokova
(pad
od
2012)
Trokovi
ukupno
iznose
1747
milijardi
dolara,
U
SAD
zabeleen
pad
trokova
za
naoruanje
dos3gnut
istorijski
maksimum?
of the
attribu
Overs
that
chiefly
Chinas spendi
terms. While Ch
tively in recent
Japan in the East
and Viet Nam in
ened tensions do
in Chinese milit
long-term policy
with economic gr
Russias spendi
terms, and its m
USA for the firs
ing has risen as i
Armaments Plan
spend 20.7 trillio
upgraded armam
cent of equipmen
While South K
nea
rly
ha
lf
o
s
te
ta
Ne
ar
Others, 21%
Russia, 5.0%
Saudi Arabia, 3.8%
France, 3.5%
8% .4%
1.
il, a, 1
az ali .1%
Br ustr ey, 1 %
A k .1
TurAE, 1
U
UK, 3.3%
Germany
, 2.8%
Japa
n, 2.
8%
Ind
So ia, 2
Ita uth .7%
ly, Ko
1. rea
9%
,1
.9%
Canada,
by Gersentially
e 2000s,
d fairly
as it did
ssia and
10 these
e slightly
wth has
r sectors
4
2
0
2
4
Change in military expenditure (%)
10
Belarus
$$
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Armenia
$$
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Azerbaijan
$$$$$
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Russia
$$
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Afghanistan
$$$$$$
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Honduras
$$$
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Paraguay
$$
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Cambodia
$$
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Argentina
$$
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Ghana
$$$
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Namibia
$$
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Angola
$$
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Swaziland
$$
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Iraq
$$$
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Saudi Arabia
$$
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Oman
$$
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Bahrain
$$
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Figure 4. The countries that doubled military spending between 2004 and 2013
Notes: $$ indicates that the countrys military spending doubled (or more), $$$ that it tripled (or more), $$$$ that it quadrupled (or more) and $$$$$that it quintupled (or
more), all in real terms. indicates that the country is a significant oil producer in relation to the size of its economy. In most cases, indicates that the country experienced
Viet Nam
$$
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China
$$
6SHQGLQJP
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*'3JURZWK
Ecuador
$$
6SHQGLQJP
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*'3JURZWK
Algeria
$$
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*'3JURZWK
Kazakhstan
$$$
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Zbir
godina
tokom
kojih
su
drave
aktivno
uestvovale
u
oruanim
sukobima
1946-2005.
* Human Security
Report Project
Literatura
Kaldor, Mary (2007). New and Old Wars: Organized Violence in a Global Era. 3rd ed., Cambridge,
UK: Polity Press (parts 3 & 4).
Ramsbotham, Oliver, Woodhouse, Tom and Miall, Hugh (2011). Contemporary Conflict
Resolution, 3rd ed., Cambridge: Polity Press (pp.63-93)
Sarkees, Meredith Reid and Wayman, Frank Whelon, 2010. Resort to War: A Data Guide To InterState, Extra-State, Intra-State, And Non-State Wars, 18162007. Washington DC: CQ Press (pp.
39-75).
SIPRI (2012). SIPRI Yearbook: Armaments, Disarment and International Security. Stockhol: SIPRI
Lotta Themner & Peter Wallensteen (2012). Armed Conflicts, 19462011. Journal of Peace
Research 49 (4), 565575.
Wallensteen, Peter (2012). Understanding Conflict Resolution: War, Peace and Global System, 3rd
ed., London: Sage Publications (pp.13-28, 85-239).
Williams, D. Paul, 2008. War in Paul D. Williams, ed., Security Studies. New York: Routledge (pp.
151-171).