Professional Documents
Culture Documents
MSTM-410B
Bachelor of Technology
Memorial University of Newfoundland
Revision 4
November 9, 2015
Letter of Transmittal
155 Ridge Road
St. Johns, Newfoundland A1B 3S7
November 9, 2015
Program Committee
Bachelor of Technology Program
Marine Institute of Memorial University of Newfoundland
P. O. Box 4920
St. Johns, Newfoundland A1C 5R3
__________________
Kevin Strowbridge
List of Revisions
Revision
Description
Date
Oct 9, 2015
Nov 9, 2015
Page ii
Executive Summary
Shallow water shipwrecks, which, for the purpose of this report, are defined as those
wrecks within the 50 meter range of water depth, in Newfoundland (NL) waters contain
hazardous substances, such as petroleum-based oils. Petroleum products that seep from
shipwrecks are devastating to the environment as they are insoluble in water, toxic, and
corrosive. The effects of oil spills from shipwrecks depend on several factors, such as the type
and amount of oil on board at the time of sinking, the characteristics of the affected environment,
the water temperature and depth, shipwreck location, the condition of the ship at the time of
sinking, and the length of time the wreck has been submerged. Currently, there are no
comprehensive methods for environmental risk assessment of shallow water shipwrecks in NL
waters; which causes difficulty on prioritization for remediation options. Additionally, not all
available actions can be taken to minimize or eliminate the environmental risks from these
potentially polluting shipwrecks due to their lack of their applicability and functionality.
The marine industry utilizes several types of petroleum products; the most common being
Marine Diesel Oil (MDO), a light distillate fuel, and Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO), a thick residual fuel.
Three physical properties of these fuels, viscosity, the temperature sensitive measure of a fuels'
resistance to flow, density, the mass per unit of volume, and specific gravity, the ratio between
the density of an object and a reference substance, need to be considered when assessing
shipwrecks. These determine the ability of fuels to flow from a shipwreck and the flow rate of
leakages.
The physical properties of petroleum products must be assessed along with the
environmental conditions in the vicinity of the shipwreck. Since viscosity and density are
temperature dependent, the annual temperature cycle at selected depths must be investigated in
Page iii
order to determine how the petroleum products can be expected to behave. At 50 meters,
temperatures are in the range of -2 to +2 deg C. The densest marine fuel, HFO, remains in a near
solid state with a maximum specific gravity of 0.98 at these temperatures, however, its density is
less than the salt water specific gravity of 1.025, which means it can float.
In order to make an informed decision as to which oil remedial options should be
employed, the structural condition of the shipwreck must be assessed. There is sufficient data
available to allow for accurate steel corrosion rate estimate calculations to be performed. These
calculations can help with the risk assessment and shipwreck management decision-making
process. The approximate rate of corrosion in seawater is 0.1 mm/year, however, this rate can
more than double due to wave energy at the surface. Hull plates are generally thick on ships, but,
internal holding tanks and plumbing, ducts and vents are substantially thinner and are often the
first areas to collapse. This can lead to breakup of the hull, which will allow the oil to escape.
Many oil remedial technologies have been successful globally, such as recovery of the
entire wreck, sealing the leaking points and using cofferdams, controlled release of pollutants,
pumping of pollutants from the shipwreck, capping of the entire wreck or of the cargo, or
shipwreck monitoring. Not all of these oil remedial technologies, however, are suitable for use in
Newfoundland shallow water shipwrecks.
The seriousness of a spill does not depend solely on the volume of oil; other factors, such
as location of shipwreck, physical properties of the oil or other pollutants, prevailing marine
conditions and sensitivities of the environment must be assessed. It is essential to undertake an
assessment of both the areas under threat and condition of the shipwreck in order to better
understand the possible consequences of a spill. Shipwreck risk assessment requires an
interdisciplinary approach covering analysis of the ships construction, historical data about the
Page iv
ship and documentation from the time of wreckage, corrosion rates, environmental status at the
wreck site, and environmental effects of the hazardous substance(s) onboard. Risks that have
severe consequences and a high probability of occurring require a mitigation plan.
By utilizing the Manolis L shipwreck as a case study, risk factors, such as the corrosion
rates of steel and risk level, were estimated and a shipwreck risk and remedial options matrix
developed that can aid in the prioritization of remediation and environmental response options.
The Manolis L was evaluated using all of the analysis methods as laid out in this report and this
demonstrated the functionality of these methods as applied to an actual shipwreck. The risk score
was calculated, the level of consequences was determined and a recommendation for an oil
remediation option for this shipwreck was put forth.
This report's main recommendations are for decision-makers in the shipwreck oil
remediation process to consider the corrosion rate of steel as part of a shipwreck risk matrix, the
creation of a rubric and matrix to analyze each oil remedial option to determine which are best
suited for shallow water shipwrecks in NL waters, and that the Canadian government should
immediately remove the oil from the Manolis L shipwreck or cap the entire shipwreck as
determined by the risk analysis.
Table of Contents
List of Revisions .............................................................................................................................. i
Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................ ii
List of Illustrations ........................................................................................................................ vii
1.0 Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 1
1.1 Project Purpose ................................................................................................................... 1
1.2 Background ......................................................................................................................... 1
1.3 Scope ................................................................................................................................... 3
1.4 Methodology ....................................................................................................................... 4
2.0 Properties of Common Marine Petroleum Products ............................................................... 5
3.0 Environmental Conditions Data for Newfoundland ............................................................... 7
4.0 Steel Degradation of Shipwrecks .......................................................................................... 10
5.0 Oil Remedial Technologies................................................................................................... 13
5.1 Recovery of the Entire Wreck........................................................................................... 13
5.2 Sealing the Leaking Points and Using Cofferdams .......................................................... 14
5.3 Controlled Release of Pollutants ....................................................................................... 15
5.4 Pumping of Pollutants from the Shipwreck ...................................................................... 15
5.5 Capping of the Entire Wreck or of the Cargo ................................................................... 16
5.6 Shipwreck Monitoring ...................................................................................................... 16
5.7 Summary of Oil Remedial Options................................................................................... 17
6.0 Shipwreck Risk Analysis Matrix .......................................................................................... 18
6.1 Shipwreck Remediation Decision Process........................................................................ 18
6.2 Definition of Risk Factors and Weights Classes............................................................... 20
6.2.1 Vessel Type / Tonnage............................................................................................... 21
6.2.2 Volume of Pollutants ................................................................................................. 21
6.2.3 Distance from Coast or a Sensitive Area ................................................................... 22
6.2.4 Environmental Conditions ......................................................................................... 22
6.2.5 Age and Condition of Shipwreck ............................................................................... 23
6.3 Risk Analysis .................................................................................................................... 24
6.3.1 Calculation of Risk Factors ........................................................................................ 24
6.3.2 Risks with Impacts and Rationales ................................................................................ 25
6.3.3 Calculating the Risk Score ......................................................................................... 27
Page vi
List of Illustrations
Figures
Figure 1-1: Manolis L Prior to Sinking
Figure 2-1: Bunker C Oil
Figure 3-1: Annual Temperature and Salinity Anomalies at Selected Depths (Top Panels)
and Their Decadal Means (Bottom Panels)
Figure 4-1: Effect of Current Velocity on Steel Corrosion Rate
Figure 4-2: Field Results of Steel Corrosion Rates
Figure 4-3: Coating and Steel Degradation Rates
Figure 5-1: Recovery of the Entire Wreck
Figure 5-2: Leak-Sealing Operations
Figure 5-3: Cofferdam on the Manolis L
Figure 5-4: Recovering Oil with Booms
Figure 5-5: Hot-Tapping
Figure 5-6: Shipwreck Capping
Figure 5-7: Sonar Image of the Manolis L
Figure 6-1: The Basic Structure of the Decision-Making-Process
Figure 7-1: Manolis L Prior to Sinking
Figure 7-2: Notre Dame Bay, Newfoundland
Figure 7-3 Hull Thickness Survey Results As Measured In 2014 with Measurement
Locations
Figure 7-4: Steel Demonstration Piece of Steel Thickness Measured on the Manolis L
Tables
Table 2-1: Physical Properties of Marine Oils
Table 3-1: Results of Various Pressure Conditions at the Shipwreck
Table 5-1: Summary of Oil Remedial Options
Table 6-1: Risk Factor Weights for Vessel Type and Tonnage
Table 6-2: Risk Factor Weights for Volume of Pollutants
vii
Page viii of 2
Table 6-3: Risk Factor Weights for Distance from Coast or a Sensitive Area
Table 6-4: Risk Factor Weights for Environmental Conditions
Table 6-5: Risk Factor Weights for Age and Condition of Shipwreck
Table 6-6 Calculation of Risk Factors
Table 6-7: Risk Events with Impacts and Rationales
Table 6-8: Qualitative Risk Classification
Table 6-9: Risk Classification
Table 6-10: Determination of the Risk Score
Table 6-11: Risk Mitigation Strategies
Table 7-1: Structural Steel Corrosion for the Manolis L
Table 7-2: Structural Steel Strength Reductions Due To Corrosion for the Manolis L
Table 7-3: Average Hull Thickness
Table 7-5: Calculation of the Risk Score for the Manolis L
Table 7-6: Recommended Risk Mitigation Strategies for the Manolis L
Page 1 of 41
1.0 Introduction
1.1 Project Purpose
The purpose of this report is to develop a tool for quantitative risk and remedial options
assessment of potentially polluting shallow water shipwrecks in Newfoundland (NL) waters.
This report examines current shipwreck oil remedial options to determine which is best suited for
shallow water shipwrecks in NL waters. By utilizing the Manolis L shipwreck as a case study,
risk factors, such as the corrosion rates of steel, can be estimated and a shipwreck risk and
remedial options matrix developed that can aid in the prioritization of remediation and
environmental response options.
1.2 Background
Shallow water shipwrecks, which, for the purpose of this report, are defined as those
wrecks within the 50 meter range of water depth, in NL waters contain hazardous substances,
such as petroleum-based oils, that can cause harm to the marine environment. Oil spills from
shipwrecks pose a danger to flora and fauna and cause damage to sea and shore ecosystems.
Many of the petroleum chemicals are toxic, carcinogenic or can be absorbed into the tissues of
marine organisms (Landquist, H, et al., 2013). These toxins can make it up the marine food
chain; from plankton to fish to other marine mammals, and even humans.
Large oil spills caused by bilging or grounding of ships often receive swift environmental
responses. These catastrophic spills are extensively covered by media as the amount of oil
dissipated over the water surface underscores the seriousness of the spill (Rogowska, Namienik,
2010). Shipwrecks can potentially cause spills that are on par with the large oil spills, however,
because spills from shipwrecks, known as chronic oil spills, are not instantaneous and do not
Page 2 of 41
usually cause oil accumulate on the water surface (Landquist, H, et al., 2013), they are often
ignored by the media and do not receive adequate environmental responses.
The effects of oil spills from shipwrecks depend on numerous factors, such as the type
and amount of oil on board at the time of sinking, the characteristics of the affected environment,
the water temperature and depth, wreck location, the condition of the ship at the time of sinking,
and the length of time the wreck has been submerged (Landquist, H, et al., 2013).
Currently, there are no comprehensive methods for environmental risk assessment of
shallow water shipwrecks in NL waters; which causes difficulty on prioritization of remediation
options (Alcaro, L.et al., 2007). Additionally, not all available actions can be taken to minimize
or eliminate the environmental risks from these potentially polluting wrecks due to their lack of
their applicability to, and functionality in, the subject region, which include:
pumping of pollutants
wreck monitoring
On January 18, 1985, the 5-year old, 121.85-meter long, steel hulled Liberian cargo
carrier, Manolis L, as shown in Figure 1-1,went off course and struck Blowhard Rock in Notre
Dame Bay, NL, at a speed of 14 knots (Transport Canada, 1985, p.2). This resulted in severe
damage to the hull and ultimately led to the sinking of the vessel in an area identified by
Page 3 of 41
hull
damage
(CBC
News,
2015).
Additional damage to a shipwreck can increase the risk of oil leakage (Landquist, H., et al.,
2014). The Notre Dame Bay region relies heavily on tourism and the fishery for its economy
(CBC News, 2015) and one or more oil spills from the Manolis L shipwreck could be
environmentally devastating. Even more serious is the possibility of a chronic oil spill, which
occurs over decades (Landquist, H, et al., 2013).
The Manolis L is not an isolated case; shallow water shipwrecks eventually reach a point
in their decay curve where they experience structural changes that may lead to oil pollution
(Landquist, H, et al., 2014). Using the Manolis L as a case study allows for practical application
of this projects research and demonstration as to how this can be applied to other shallow water
shipwrecks in NL Waters.
1.3 Scope
The scope of this project includes:
summary and analysis of current shallow water shipwreck oil remedial technologies
creation of a rubric and matrix to analyze each oil remedial option to determine which
are best suited for shallow water shipwrecks in NL waters
Page 4 of 41
recommendations on which oil remedial technologies are best suited for shallow
water shipwrecks in NL waters
technology that does not have proven functional and operational profiles
1.4 Methodology
The research used to support this project was available literature from secondary sources.
The literature mainly focused towards three types of sources. The first source was journal articles
and papers on the topic of structural degradation in shipwrecks by engineers, experts or
researchers (Kuroda et al., 2008). The second type of source was on the topic of oil remedial
methods and options in the form of papers published by engineers, experts or researchers in
periodicals, articles, or magazines (Mazarakos, Andritsos & Kostopoulos, 2012). The third
source was information and data obtained from companies that operate in the oil remedial sector
(Environment Canada, 2006). Additional sources were used as needed from the MUN and
Marine Institute libraries.
The analysis of the secondary sources was a very critical stage in the development of the
project report. The analysis was qualitative and:
Page 5 of 41
forecast outcomes
The project report considered current shipwreck oil removal technologies (Mazarakos et al.,
2012) to determine which is best suited for shallow water shipwrecks in NL waters. A shipwreck
in Notre Dame Bay, NL, the Manolis L, was used as a case study (Transport Canada, 1985) for
practical application of this projects research and demonstration as to how this can be applied to
other shallow water shipwrecks in NL Waters.
(Dahl, 2001). For the purposes of oil remedial options for shipwrecks, only vessels built after
1912, therefore, need be considered.
An understanding of the physical properties of petroleum products is necessary in order
to develop an understanding of the dangers they pose when they leak from shipwrecks.
Petroleum products that seep from shipwrecks are devastating to the environment (Landquist, H,
et al., 2013) as they are insoluble in water, toxic, and corrosive. The marine industry utilizes
several different types of these products; the most common being Marine Diesel Oil (MDO), a
Page 6 of 41
light distillate fuel, and Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO), a thick residual fuel. The critical specifications,
those which affect flow rates and buoyancy, are shown in Table 1-1.
Oil Type
MDO
HFO
Viscosity
0C
kg/m*s
Viscosity
15 C
kg/m*s
Density
0C
kg/m3
Density
15 C
kg/m3
Specific Gravity
0 C (SW)
T/m3
Specific Gravity
15 C (SW)
T/m3
129
883
14
486
996
980
890 - 920
960 -1010
0.97
0.95
0.86 - 0.89
0.93 - 0.98
Lubricants, hydraulics, and greases are not considered herein as the quantities of each are
relatively small in comparison to the fuel oils.
Three physical properties of these fuels, viscosity, the temperature sensitive measure of a
fuels' resistance to flow, density, the mass per unit of volume, and specific gravity, the ratio
between the density of an object, and a reference substance, need to be considered when
assessing shipwrecks. These determine the ability of fuels to flow from a shipwreck and the flow
rate of leakages (Pounder & Woodyard, 2004). As MDO is the lighter fuel, it will leak easier
than HFO when an escape route from a shipwreck forms. Lighter oils are able to escape through
narrow cracks, vent pipes, and broken internal pipes and equipment and tend to form large thin
oil sheens that can cover large surface areas. Evaporation in open-water spills lessens the
negative impacts (Milwee, 1996).
Page 7 of 41
Page 8 of 41
Figure 3-1: Annual Temperature and Salinity Anomalies at Selected Depths (Top Panels) and
Their Decadal Means (Bottom Panels)
Source: Colbourne, 2004
Whether oil flows from a ruptured tank depends on more than the viscosity and density of
the oil. The hydrostatic pressure of the water column will not allow oil to easily escape. If the
pressure in the tank is higher than the water pressure, the oil will flow out of the tank. If the
water pressure is higher, then the oil will remain in the tank (Milwee, 1996).
However, other environmental forces can act on the shipwreck and lead to oil spilling
from a tank. Subsea currents can create pressure differences that allow the oil to escape. These
Page 9 of 41
currents can also force water into tanks, which will displace the oil and force it out of the tank(s)
(Milwee, 1996).
The rising and falling of the tides can affect the pressure differential at the wreck site.
Much like the operation of a displacement pump, a continual tidal cycle can pump oil from the
tanks of a shipwreck. This force is increased when coupled with tidal or storm surges (Milwee,
1996). As the tide rises, the water pressure increases and is forced into the tank(s). Later, as the
tide falls, oil flows out of the tank(s) as the water pressure drops below that of the pressure inside
of the tank(s). Oil will continue to flow out of the tank(s) until the pressures equalize. Table 1-2
shows the effect of different pressure situations.
Pressure Condition
Pressure in Tank = Water Pressure
Pressure in Tank > Water Pressure
Pressure in Tank < Water Pressure
Result
No Leakage
Oil flows out of tank(s)
No Leakage
Page 10 of 41
Page 11 of 41
The approximate rate of corrosion in seawater is 0.1 mm/year. However, this rate can
more than double due to wave energy at the surface (MacLeod, 2011). Hull plates are generally
thick on ships, however, internal holding tanks and plumbing, ducts and vents are substantially
thinner and are often the first areas to collapse (MacLeod, 2011). This can lead to breakup of the
hull.
Corrosion rates for individual ships are affected by dissolved oxygen and temperatures at
the wreck site (MacLeod, 2010). Baseline corrosion rates do not account for natural events, such
as storm surges and strong currents. Localized corrosion from pitting or microbes can be
important factors and, if occurs much faster than the baseline rate, is more likely to cause
structural failure sooner, however, these cannot be predicted (MacLeod, 2011).
Through the use of experimentation with steel corrosion rates in salt water, a more
accurate gauge of corrosion rates can be utilized (Kuroda, et al, 2008). At depths in the 50 meter
range, the steel corrosion rate values can be taken as 0.21 mm/year, as seen in Figure 4-2.
Page 12 of 41
The DNV Hull Inspection Manual (DNV, 2007) provides guidance to ship operators on
maintaining control of ships structural conditions. Figure 4-3 shows the average rates at which
coating systems breakdown and that steel will degrade once the coatings breakdown. This can be
applied to sunken ships. Depending upon the coating condition of the ship at the time of loss, the
coatings will breakdown in approximately 6 years. It then only takes 4 years for the steel to
degrade to the point where holes will begin to form.
This can be extended to arrive at a formula to estimate the remaining steel thickness:
Estimated Steel Thickness Remaining (mm) = Original Steel Thickness (mm) - Estimated
Corrosion (mm)
Page 13 of 41
Not all of these oil remedial technologies, however, are suitable for use in Newfoundland
shallow water shipwrecks. This section aims to provide an overview of each technology along
with rational towards applicability.
of
the
entire
shipwreck
is
The wreck removal process is shown in Figure 5-1. Shallow water shipwreck recovery in
Newfoundland waters is a viable option for vessels that are mainly intact and have not degraded
substantially (Alcaro et al., 2007).
Page 14 of 41
Many shipwrecks, however, are not good candidates for recovery as they are damaged to
the point of being fragile. Recovery attempts of vessels in this condition can lead to vessel
breakup; which could cause a greater environmental problem. The longer a vessel remains
underwater, the more degradation will occur (Milwee, 1996).
(Alcaro et al., 2007) and is a viable temporary option for shipwrecks in Newfoundland waters.
Another level of protection can be included
with this option; use of an oil-capturing system, such
as a cofferdam (shown in Figure 5-3). Cofferdams can
be placed over leaking points to trap any leaking oil.
This oil can then be pumped from the cofferdam on a
regular basis.
Cofferdam use must be considered to be temporary solution as they do not prevent the oil
from leaking from the shipwreck. The shipwreck continues to degrade and, eventually, the oil
leakages can become too numerous or the seepage flow rate can increase to a point where the
volume of the cofferdam is inadequate.
Page 15 of 41
tap flanges and holes must be installed in a tank to mount the pump, provide make-up water, and
insert heating coils. Sometimes it results necessary to heat the transfer line of the pump steam
into the oil tank to melt the oil and reduce its viscosity, which improves flow.
Hot-tapping can be performed by divers and ROVs and is a viable option in
Newfoundland waters.
Page 16 of 41
The capping material should be made of crushed rocks and is a viable option in
Newfoundland waters. The large quantity of capping materials and transport to the shipwreck
site, however, may prove to be obstacles.
Page 17 of 41
provide us with details (location of holes, leaks, corrosion, etc.) (Alcaro et al., 2007). The French
Department of Labor authorizes tank diving to a depth of 60 meters. Since this paper considers
water depths below 60 meters to be shallow water, this is a viable option in Newfoundland
waters.
Shipwreck monitoring, however, is not an oil remediation solution. It simply provides
notice that an oil spill has occurred or is about to occur.
Option
Description
A
B
C
D
E
F
Viable for
NFLD
(Y/N)
Y
Y
N
Y
Y
Y
Permanent
Solution
(Y/N)
Y
N
Y
Y
Y
N
Only options which are viable for Newfoundland waters will be considered further in this
report. Temporary solutions will be considered further as these are acceptable options in some
situations.
Page 18 of 41
Page 19 of 41
evaluation step, together with a comparison of possible alternatives to mitigate the risks. This
provides support to the decision-makers on benets and limitations of possible risk treatment
alternatives (Landquist, 2013).
Page 20 of 41
These components provide a measure of impact that a leaking ship will have on the
environment. Each factor is classed between 1 (least dangerous) and 10 (most dangerous). Risk
factors were then summed to produce the final risk rating for a maximum score of 50. Large oil
tankers found in shallow, near shore waters in areas of high marine biological diversity are
ranked highest, for example, while smaller ships in deeper waters are of lowest priority.
Page 21 of 41
Description
< 2,000 tons
B
C
D
E
F
2
3
4
5
add 3
Table 6-1: Risk Factor Weights for Vessel Type and Tonnage
Source: Adapted from Alcaro, 2007
6.2.2 Volume of Pollutants
Unless documentation can prove that vessel tanks are not 100% full, it should be assumed
that the vessel tanks are 100%. In cases where vessel tank capacities or design drawings are not
available, capacities from similar ships should be used. The total volume includes the total vessel
fuel capacity and any cargo that contains pollutants. Table 6-2 shows the risk factor weights for
volume of pollutants.
Class
A
B
C
D
E
< 200
200 - 299
300 - 399
400 - 500
> 500
1
2
3
4
5
Page 22 of 41
Class
Distance (km)
A
B
C
D
E
>5
3 -4
2 -3
1-2
<1
1
2
3
4
5
Table 6-3: Risk Factor Weights for Distance from Coast or a Sensitive Area
Source: Adapted from Alcaro, 2007
According to Alcro, et al (2007), in a few hours, oil will reach the coast if the shipwreck is
located 1 km offshore. Within a day, even without the effects of tides or currents, a floating oil
slick will range from 6 16 km. In a few days, the distance will range from 16 80 km.
Description
salient levels > 35
tidal range > 0.6 m
> 4 storm surges/ year
current velocities > 4 m/s
temperatures > 2 C
Page 23 of 41
Risk Factor Weights
1
2
3
4
5
It is possible that more than one of these risk factors can be present simultaneously. As such,
the total risk factor weight for this consideration is the total sum of all of the weights, 15.
Description
0-9 years underwater
10-19 years underwater
considerable damage at
time of loss
shipwreck not intact
> 20 years underwater
Table 6-5: Risk Factor Weights for Age and Condition of Shipwreck
Source: Adapted from Alcaro, 2007
It is possible that more than one of these risk factors can be present simultaneously. As such,
the total risk factor weight for this consideration is the total sum of all of the weights, which is
12.
Page 24 of 41
These two risk factors are the largest contributors to the size and severity of a potential oil
spill. Table 6-6 shows the calculation of risk factors.
Class of
Distance
Class of
Volume
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
3
4
5
RF
1.00
0.50
0.33
0.25
0.20
2
2
2
2
2
1
2
3
4
5
2.00
1.00
0.67
0.50
0.40
Class of
Distance
Class of
Volume
3
3
3
3
3
1
2
3
4
5
RF
3.00
1.50
1.00
0.75
0.60
4
4
4
4
4
1
2
3
4
5
4.00
2.00
1.33
1.00
0.80
Class of
Distance
Class of
Volume
5
5
5
5
5
1
2
3
4
5
RF
5.00
2.50
1.67
1.25
1.00
Page 25 of 41
Risk Event
Rationale
Corrosion
Diving
Landslides/earth quakes
Ship trafc
Storms/extreme weather
Trawling
The risk is based on the consequence of the risks compared to the likelihood of the risks
occurring. This comparison is illustrated in Table 6-7. Table 6-8 illustrates the degree of
consequence of each risk factor and the likelihood of a particular risk factor happening. It also
illustrates the impact potential if such risks are realized.
Page 26 of 41
These possible events can be rated on a level of hazard based on the potential for the event to
occur and the resulting consequences. The impact levels are:
Minor
Moderate
Serious
High
Low
Impact
Potential
Serious
Minor
Landslides/earth quakes
Medium
Serious
Serious
Ship trafc
Medium
Serious
Serious
5
6
Storms/extreme weather
Trawling
High
Low
Serious
Minor
Serious
Serious
Risk
Risk Factor
1
2
Corrosion
Diving
Likelihood
Consequence
Serious
Serious
Page 27 of 41
result; which is serious. This serves to highlight the need for oil remediation strategies to be
considered following the loss of any vessel.
Consequence
Likelihood
Almost Certain
Likely
Possible
Unlikely
Rare
Impact key
01-04 = Minor
05-09 = Moderate
10-16 = Major
17-25 = Severe
Nil
5
4
3
2
1
Minor
10
8
6
4
2
Moderate
15
12
9
6
3
Major
20
16
12
8
4
Severe
25
20
15
10
5
Risk Factor
Weights
Max
Weight
8
5
5
15
12
45
Page 28 of 41
Risk Identification
Risk score = Minor
Risk score = Moderate
Risk score = Severe
A
Y
N
N
B
Y
Y
N
E
Y
Y
Y
F
Y
Y
Y/N
Key
Option
Description
A
B
C
D
E
F
Page 29 of 41
Option F with Severe risk scores receives a Y/N because at this level of risk, oil
remediation should have already occurred. The wreck should be monitored, however, in the
event that not all of the oil was captured during the oil remediation process.
It is expected that all risks are factored in to these strategies. If however, other risks develop,
it is hoped that their effects may be analysed and appropriate mitigation strategies can be put in
place.
Page 30 of 41
The Manolis L will be evaluated using all of the analysis methods as laid out in previous
sections. This will serve to demonstrate the functionality of these methods as applied to an actual
shipwreck. The risk score will be calculated and a recommendation for an oil remediation option
will be put forth.
Page 31 of 41
Estimated Corrosion (mm) = Corrosion Rate (mm/year) x [Ship Submersion Time (years) Coating Breakdown (years)]
Estimated Steel Thickness Remaining (mm) = Original Steel Thickness (mm) - Estimated
Corrosion (mm)
Shell
Internal 1
Internal 2
19
5
0.21
30
12
12 7.05
4.95 mm
9 7.05
1.05 mm
Estimated Corrosion:
=
0.235 x 30
7.05 mm
25 7.05
11.95 mm
Shell
19
11.95
37.11%
Internal 1
12
4.95
58.75%
Internal 2
9
1.05
88.33%
Table 7-2: Structural Steel Strength Reductions Due To Corrosion for the Manolis L
Source: Author
Page 32 of 41
Figure 7-3 Hull Thickness Survey Results As Measured In 2014 with Measurement Locations
Source: Seaforth, 2014
Page 33 of 41
Reading Thickness
No.
(mm)
12
9.2
13
10.6
14
10.8
15
10
16
11.1
17
10.2
18
10
19
10.6
20
11.2
21
9.1
22
14.1
10.81 Average
Page 34 of 41
Figure 7-4: Steel Demonstration Piece of Steel Thickness Measured on the Manolis L
Source: Author
Risk Factor
Weights
5
5
5
15
5
35
Rationale
Manolis L tonnage is 5,421
522 cu-m recorded at time of loss
less than 1 km
all variables are applicable
Manolis L sank in 1985
Page 35 of 41
The value of the risk score means that the Manolis L is assessed to be serious, which means
that potentially very severe effects are expected. This is a top priority case and should receive an
immediate action plan and mitigation.
Risk Identification
Risk score = Severe
A
N
B
N
E
Y
F
N
Page 36 of 41
8.0 Conclusions
The purpose of this report was to develop a tool for quantitative risk and remedial options
assessment of potentially polluting shallow water shipwrecks in NL waters. This report
examined current shipwreck oil remedial options and determined which are best suited for
shallow water shipwrecks in NL waters. By utilizing the Manolis L shipwreck as a case study,
risk factors, such as the corrosion rates of steel and levels of consequences, were estimated and a
shipwreck risk and remedial options matrix developed that can aid in the prioritization of
remediation and environmental response options.
It was shown that the effects of oil spills from shipwrecks depend on numerous factors,
such as the type and amount of oil on board at the time of sinking, the characteristics of the
affected environment, the water temperature and depth, shipwreck location, the condition of the
ship at the time of sinking, and the length of time the wreck has been submerged. A quantitative
approach was developed for the subject region and wreck depth and location from shore that can
be used as a tool in the shipwreck mitigation process in setting priority levels to different
shipwrecks.
Current shipwreck oil remedial techniques and shipwreck management strategies were
investigated and their applicability to, and functionality in, the subject region were analyzed. Not
all of the current oil remediation options are applicable and were, therefore, removed from the
list of acceptable options.
Expanded further, a method was developed to perform a risk analysis that led to an
overall risk score that can be used in the decision-making process. An evaluation of which risks
to consider and how to prioritize among them was included in the risk evaluation steps along
Page 37 of 41
with a comparison of possible oil remediation options, which may provide support to the
decision-makers on benets and limitations of possible risk treatment alternatives.
The case study investigated, the Manolis L, was evaluated using all of the analysis
methods as laid out in this report. This demonstrated the functionality of these methods as
applied to an actual shipwreck. The risk score was calculated, the level of consequences were
determined and a recommendation for an oil remediation option for this shipwreck was put forth.
9.0 Recommendations
Based on the information outlined in this report, the following set of recommendations
are encouraged:
Decision-makers in the shipwreck oil remediation process should consider the corrosion
rate of steel shipwrecks as part of a shipwreck risk matrix.
The creation of a rubric and matrix to analyze each oil remedial option to determine
which are best suited for shallow water shipwrecks in NL waters.
Alternatives to the current shallow water shipwreck oil remedial technologies should be
researched.
The Canadian government should immediately remove the oil from the Manolis L
shipwreck or cap the entire shipwreck as determined by the risk analysis of this report.
Page 38 of 41
References
Alcaro, L., Amato, E., Cabioch, F., Farchi, C., Gouriou, V., Wrubl, C. (2007) Development of
European guidelines for potentially polluting shipwrecks. D.G. Environment, Civil
Protection Unit, Institute of Marine Sciences (ISMAR).
CBC News. (2015, January 16). Manolis L a time bomb for more oil leaks, warn residents.
Retrieved
October
1,
2015
from
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-
labrador/manolis-l-a-time-bomb-for-more-oil-leaks-warn-residents-1.2911960
DET NORSKE VERITAS (DNV) (Ed.). (2007). DNV Hull Inspection Manual (Vol. MTP NO
864). Hvik: DET NORSKE VERITAS.
Emergencies Science and Technology Division, Environment Canada (2006). Bunker C fuel oil.
Retrieved October 7, 2015, from http://www.etccte.ec.gc.ca/databases/oilproperties/pdf/web_bunker_c_fuel_oil.pdf
Dahl, Erik J. (2001). Naval Innovation: From Coal to Oil. Joint Forces Quarterly Volume 27,
pp. 50-56. Institute for National Strategic Studies, Nation Defense University,
Washington, D.C.
Page 39 of 41
Grennan, D. (2010) What is the current state of the art for assessment, salvage and response
technologies? International Corrosion Workshop, Newport News, VA.
Kuroda, T., Takai, R., Kobayashi, Y., Tanaka, Y., & Hara, S. (2008). Corrosion rate of
shipwreck structural steels under the sea. OCEANS 2008 - MTS/IEEE Kobe TechnoOcean, 08(978-1-4244-2126-8).
Landquist, H., Hassellv, I., Rosn, L., Lindgren, J., & Dahllf, I. (2013). Evaluating the needs
of risk assessment methods of potentially polluting shipwrecks. Journal of Environmental
Management Vol 119 (2013), pp 85-92.
Landquist, H., Rosn, L., Lindhe, A., Norberg, T., Hassellv, I., Lindgren, J., & Dahllf, I.
(2014). A fault tree model to assess probability of contaminant discharge from
shipwrecks. Marine Pollution Bulletin, 88, 239-248.
Milwee, W. (1996). Modern marine salvage. Centreville Md.: Cornell Maritime Press.
Page 40 of 41
Pounder, C., & Woodyard, D. (2004). Pounder's marine diesel engines and gas turbines (8th
ed.). Oxford: Elsevier Butterworth Heinemann.
Rao, A., Outhouse, L., Gregory, D. (2009). Special marine areas in Newfoundland and
Labrador, areas of interest in our marine backyards. Canadian Parks and Wildlife
Society (CPAWS), Newfoundland and Labrador Chapter.
Seaforth Geosurveys Inc. (2014) ROV support operations report removal and reinstallation of
cofferdam, hull thickness measurements and HD video survey of the shipwreck M.V.
Manolis L, Blow Hard Rock, NL. Dartmouth, NS.
Symons, L., Michel, J., Delgado, J., Reich, D., Rench McCay, D., Chmidt Etkin, D., & Elton, D.
(2014). The Remediation of Underwater Legacy Environmental Threats (RULET) risk
assessment for potentially polluting shipwrecks in u.s. waters. 2014 International Oil
Spill Conference.
Symons, L., Michel, J., Delgado, J., Reich, D., McCay, D., Etkin, D., Helton, D. (2014) The
Remediation of Underwater Legacy Environmental Threats (RULET) Risk Assessment
for Potentially Polluting Shipwrecks in U.S. Waters, 2014 International Oil Spill
Conference, Abstract 299454
Page 41 of 41
Transport Canada, Investigation report into the circumstances attending the grounding,
abandonment and sinking of the Liberian vessel "Manolis L." in Notre Dame Bay,
Newfoundland on January 17, 1985, Ottawa: Marine Casualty Investigations, 1985