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Medium Tercile
Upper Tercile
Lower Tercile
44%
37%
19%
Medium Tercile
24%
34%
42%
Upper Tercile
11%
34%
55%
Lower Tercile
Medium Tercile
Upper Tercile
Lower Tercile
49%
31%
20%
Medium Tercile
30%
38%
32%
Upper Tercile
21%
31%
48%
Using IRR
Fig. 2: Improved Hit Rate Based on IRR for Pre-2002 Vintage Funds
The traditional method of assessing
private equity performance persistence
is based on the assessment of the
degree to which a fund (the successor
fund) managed by a GP, whose prior
fund (the predecessor fund) of the same
strategy and geography, was in a certain
performance category, is more likely
than random to be also in that same
performance category.
IRR Quartile
Subsequent
1st Quartile
Subsequent
2nd Quartile
Subsequent
3rd Quartile
Subsequent
4th Quartile
Improved Hit
Rate
33%
20%
17%
30%
1.33
23%
14%
43%
20%
0.57
23%
28%
30%
20%
1.20
29%
15%
24%
32%
1.27
th
Prior 4 Quartile
1.18
Source: Preqin and PERACS
Fig. 3: Improved Hit Rate Based on PERACS Alpha for Pre-2002 Vintage Funds
Alpha Quartile
Subsequent
1st Quartile
Subsequent
2nd Quartile
Subsequent
3rd Quartile
Subsequent
4th Quartile
Improved Hit
Rate
32%
20%
27%
21%
1.29
25%
19%
33%
22%
0.78
7%
33%
37%
23%
1.49
34%
12%
22%
32%
1.27
1.21
Fig. 4: Improved Hit Rate Based on IRR for 2000-2004 Vintage Funds
IRR Quartile
Subsequent
1st Quartile
Subsequent
2nd Quartile
Subsequent
3rd Quartile
Subsequent
4th Quartile
Improved Hit
Rate
28%
32%
24%
16%
1.12
29%
21%
33%
17%
0.83
19%
26%
30%
26%
1.19
14%
18%
32%
36%
1.45
th
Prior 4 Quartile
1.15
Source: Preqin and PERACS
1
See, for example, Carhart et al. (2002) or Bares, Gibson and Gyger (2002).
2
See Kaplan and Schoar (2005) or Phalippou and Gottschalg (2009).
3
((49/33)+(38/33)+(48/33))/3=(1.48+1.15+1.45)/3=1.35
The 2016 Preqin Global Private Equity & Venture Capital Report
Fig. 5: Improved Hit Rate Based on PERACS Alpha for 2000-2004 Vintage Funds
Alpha Quartile
Subsequent
1st Quartile
Subsequent
2nd Quartile
Subsequent
3rd Quartile
Subsequent
4th Quartile
Improved Hit
Rate
33.33%
26%
19%
22%
1.33
23%
18%
36%
23%
0.73
15%
31%
42%
12%
1.69
26%
9%
26%
39%
1.57
1.33