Month

Actual Demand
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

MAD

29
31
32
37
43
37
46
48
46
48

Single Exponential Forecasting

Forecast
Absolute Error
29.00
0.00
29.00
2.00
29.60
2.40
30.32
6.68
32.32
10.68
35.53
1.47
35.97
10.03
38.98
9.02
41.68
4.32
42.98
5.02

5.16

MAD is a measure to identify which model is better. Lower the value of MAD more efficient is the mode
single exponential smoothing so double exponential smoothing is better.

Double Exponential Forecasting

Smoothed Value
Estimated Trend
Forecast
Absolute Error
1.00
28.00
1.00
28.90
1.40
30.30
0.70
30.81
1.46
32.27
0.27
33.69
2.11
35.80
1.20
37.96
3.13
41.09
1.91
39.86
1.69
41.55
4.55
42.89
2.24
45.12
0.88
45.99
2.37
48.35
0.35
47.65
1.42
49.07
3.07
48.75
0.92
49.67
1.67

1.56

AD more efficient is the model. As we can see here the MAD value for double exponential smoothing is 1.56 < 5.

ential smoothing is 1.56 < 5.16, MAD for