Assignment:

Energy consumption in Pakistan

Submitted By: Muhammad Jawad Khan

Submitted To: Mr. Zahoor

BCS 5th Semester

Preface:
Conditions in pakistan regarding energy consumption are misereable and
even getting worse day by day. Various factors influencing these calamaties, some are
internal while external factors cant be ignored. Most of this is affected by the poor
leadership and poor decisions made by our leaders, these are some of the internal
issues that we are facing. External problems include the U.S invasion on Afghanistan and
Iraq, global economic instability, i-e global recission. How to cope and survive these
cicumstances needs a big heart, definitely from the politicians as well as from the
people. This report expose some of the major issues that we are facing regarding energy
as citizens of Pakistan. How the urban and rural areas are affected, how the industries
are affected and how the daily households are affected. I hope this report will present a
clear picture to those who are responsible and who can bring a change.

M. Jawad Khan
 Table of contents:

Energy consumtion in Pakistan

1 Energy consumption

2 Sector wise consumption

3 Supply and demand of energy in pakistan
4 Energy consumption and production
5 Various solutions
Conclusion
Energy Consumption:
In 2008, total worldwide energy consumption was 474 exajoules (474×1018 J) with
80 to 90 percent derived from the combustion of fossil fuels.This is equivalent to an
average power consumption rate of 15 terawatts (1.504×10 13 W). Not all of the world's
economies track their energy consumption with the same rigor, and the exact energy
content of a barrel of oil or a ton of coal will vary with quality.

Most of the world's energy resources are from the sun's rays hitting earth. Some of that
energy has been preserved as fossil energy, some is directly or indirectly usable; for
example, via wind, hydro- or wave power. The term solar constant is the amount of
incoming solar electromagnetic radiation per unit area, measured on the outer surface
of Earth's atmosphere, in a plane perpendicular to the rays. The solar constant includes
all types of solar radiation, not just visible light. It is measured by satellite to be roughly
1366 watts per square meter, though it fluctuates by about 6.9% during a year—from
1412 W m−2 in early January to 1321 W m−2 in early July, due to the Earth's varying
distance from the sun, and by a few parts per thousand from day to day. For the whole
Earth, with a cross section of 127,400,000 km2, the total energy rate is 174 petawatts
(1.740×1017 W), plus or minus 3.5%. This value is the total rate of solar energy received
by the planet; about half, 89 PW, reaches the Earth's surface.

The estimates of remaining non-renewable worldwide energy resources vary,

with the remaining fossil fuels totaling an estimated 0.4 YJ (1 YJ = 1024J) and the available
nuclear fuel such as uranium exceeding 2.5 YJ. Fossil fuels range from 0.6-3 YJ if
estimates of reserves of methane clathrates are accurate and become technically
extractable. Mostly thanks to the Sun, the world also has a renewable usable energy flux
that exceeds 120 PW (8,000 times 2004 total usage), or 3.8 YJ/yr, dwarfing all non-
renewable resources.
Primary consumption:
The United States Energy Information Administration regularly publishes a
report on world consumption for most types of primary energy resources.

Average power in TW
Fuel type
1980 2004 2006

Oil 4.38 5.58 5.74

Gas 1.80 3.45 3.61

Coal 2.34 3.87 4.27

Hydroelectric 0.599 0.933 0.995

Nuclear power 0.253 0.914 0.929

Geothermal, wind,
0.016 0.133 0.158
solar energy, wood

Total 9.48 15.0 15.8

Nuclear power:

In 2004, renewable energy supplied around 7% of the world's energy

consumption. The renewables sector has been growing significantly since
the last years of the 20th century, and in 2005 the total new investment was
estimated to have been 38 billion US dollars. Germany and China lead with
investments of about 7 billion US dollars each, followed by the United
States, Spain, Japan, and India. This resulted in an additional 35 GW of
capacity during the year.

Hydropower:

Worldwide hydroelectricity consumption reached 816 GW in 2005,

consisting of 750 GW of large plants, and 66 GW of small hydro
installations. Large hydro capacity totaling 10.9 GW was added by China,
Brazil and India during the year, but there was a much faster growth (8%) in
small hydro, with 5 GW added, mostly in China where some 58% of the
world's small hydro plants are now located. In the Western world, although
Canada is the largest producer of hydroelectricity in the world, the
construction of large hydro plants has stagnated due to environmental
concerns.[20] The trend in both Canada and the United States has been to
micro hydro because it has negligible environmental impacts and opens up
many more locations for power generation. In British Columbia alone the
estimates are that micro hydro will be able to more than double electricity
production in the province.
Energy consumption in Pakistan:

Pakistan is a mess. The country is largely controlled by a cadre of active and retired
military personnel who control the country’s biggest and most important businesses and
hold most of the political power as well. It has a stash of nuclear weapons that have
never been declared. And of course there’s the continuing political turmoil that pits the
established military rulers against at least two other powerful factions: radical Islamic
groups and those pushing for a secular democracy. Amidst all this, the media has largely
ignored the phenomenal growth of Pakistan’s energy consumption. The country has a
population of 170 million. But in 2006, the average Pakistani used just 2.5 barrels of oil
equivalent.

Pakistan’s per capita energy consumption is the lowest of the six most populous
countries on earth (China, India, the U.S., Indonesia, Brazil, and Pakistan). U.S. per capita
usage is highest, with 56.6 BOE per year, followed by China’s 9.4 BOE. But Pakistan is
racing to catch up, and its energy consumption growth rate is second only to China’s.
Between 2000 and 2006 its total energy consumption grew at an average yearly rate of
5.5 percent (China’s was 9.8 percent). That surge reflects the country’s booming
economy. Pakistan’s G.D.P. is growing by about 6.6 percent per year.
 Supply and demand of energy in pakistan:

Supply and Demand of Electricity in Pakistan

Supply and Demand Position: 2008-2020 (MW)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Existing 15,90 15,90 15,90 15,90 15,90 15,90 15,90 15,90 15,90 15,90 15,90 15,90 15,90
Generation 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Proposal /
10,11 10,55 13,30 13,52 14,60 16,13 18,44 18,44 18,44 18,44
Committed 530 4,235 7,226
5 6 7 0 7 4 8 8 8 8
Generation
Total
16,48 20,13 23,12 26,01 26,45 29,21 29,42 30,51 32,03 34,35 34,35 34,35 34,35
Existing/Commi
4 8 9 8 9 0 3 0 7 1 1 1 1
tted Generation
Expected
13,14 16,11 18,50 20,81 21,16 23,36 23,53 24,40 25,63 27,48 27,48 27,48 27,48
Available
6 0 3 4 7 8 8 8 0 1 1 1 1
Generation
Demand 16,48 17,86 19,35 20,87 22,46 24,12 25,91 28,02 30,22 35,50 34,91 37,90 41,13
(Summer Peak) 4 8 2 4 0 6 9 9 3 4 8 7 2
- -
Surplus/Deficit - - - - - - - -
-849 -60 -758 10,42 13,65
Generation 3,338 1,758 1,293 2,381 3,621 4,593 8,023 7,437
6 1

Source: Private Power and Infrastructure Board - Govt. of Pakistan

In the short run addressing difficult challenges such as the demand for a parity of
treatment to both domestic and foreign investors must make some difference by way of
attracting investors across the board. Given the growing demand for electricity, foreign
investors must have a role in helping Pakistan meet this challenge.

But the challenges faced by Pakistan are by no means easy. It is indeed the case that the
business of reforming the electricity supply network is just not about short term and often
incomplete measures of the kind that Pakistanis have been accustomed to.

Even if Pakistan successfully set aside the vast funds which are necessary to finance such
a turn-around, the time taken to ensure the supply of all the technical ingredients must in
itself make the task formidably challenging.

Energy consumption and production:

According to the latest economic survey, in the past 14 years -- from 1990-99 to 2003-04 --
the consumption of petroleum products, natural gas, electricity an coal increased by an
annual average rate of 2.5%, 4.9%, 5.1% and 5.2%, respectively. However, one major
change in consumption patter has been registered in the consumption of oil. The use of oil
has reduced since 2001, particularly in the cement industry and power generation, because
the cement industry has shifted to natural gas and the power generation sector is
increasingly using gas. Similarly, the consumption of various petroleum products in
household and agriculture registered marked decline of 16.2 and 16.8 per cent,
respectively. This is primarily because of the availability of cheaper fuels like LPG and
natural gas. However, the consumption of petroleum products have increased in
transportation, industrial and other government sectors. In the last 14 years, the transport
sector saw the largest use of petroleum products with a share of 48.7 per cent. The share of
power sector, industry, households, other government sectors and agriculture stood at
31%, 12.1%, 3.8%, 2.5% and 1.5%, respectively. The sector wise consumption is given in
Table 1.

Table 1: Sector wise natural gas consumption from 1990 2004

Sector Natural Gas Consumption

Power sector 35.4%
Fertilizer 23.4%
Industrial 18.9%
Household 17.6%
Commercial 2.8%
Cement 1.5%

The consumption of natural gas in the cement sector in the first nine (9) months of fiscal
year 2004-05 registered a 100 per cent increase. Similarly, for the same time period the
consumption for industrial, power, commercial and household sectors jumped up by 15.5%,
12.3%, 10.5%, 3.8%, respectively.

In electricity consumption, the household sector has always

been the largest consumer with a share of 41.4 per cent.
The share for industrial, agricultural, other government
sectors, and commercial consumers for the same time
period (1990-04) has been 31.1%, 14.1%, 7% and 6%,
respectively. Figure 4 shows the sector wise shares of
electricity consumption for the period: 2004-05.

Various solutions:
The Kalabagh Dam will generate Pakistan’s largest amount of electricity. Once it is built, that is.
Originally slated to start construction in 1985, the project has seen many delays. By late 2007, it
appeared that the dam would finally get underway. In December, a minister of the interim federal
government claimed that a decision to start construction might be made by the time the new
government took power after the scheduled January 8 elections. But the December 27
assassination of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto caused a postponement of the elections,
and once again threw the Kalabagh project’s future into doubt.

The history of the dam project goes all the way back to 1960, when Pakistan and India signed the
Indus water treaty. Under the treaty, the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab Rivers were assigned to
Pakistan, and the eastern Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej Rivers were reserved for India.

The treaty provided for two major dams in Pakistan. Construction of the Mangla Dam on the
Jhelum River started in 1962 and it was completed five years later. During the summer, the
dam’s high reservoir level can generate 1,150 megawatts of power. The capacity comes down to
about 500 MW in winter.

There were two possible sites for the other dam, to be built on the Indus. The World Bank
preferred Kalabagh due to technical reasons, but then-President, Ayub Khan, wanted Tarbela for
political ones. He believed Tarbela would bring prosperity to his home district, Hazara. And he
prevailed.

Tarbela, the world’s largest earth and rock filled dam (485 feet high and 9,000 feet long), was
completed in 1974. During the high reservoir period the dam can generate 3,714 MW, due to a
15 percent permissible overloading. It comes to about 1,350 MW in the lean winter period.

Kalabagh will have an installed capacity of 2,400 MW initially and 3,600 MW ultimately.
Pakistan’s Water and Power Development Authority estimates that annual electricity generated
at Kalabagh will be 20 million barrels of oil equivalent, saving fuel that would otherwise be
needed to produce thermal power. In 2005, the total project cost, including price escalation and
interest during construction, was estimated at $6.1 billion, with construction expected to take six
years or so.

In January 2006, the federal cabinet approved the construction of five large dams by 2016,
including Kalabagh. But rather than starting with Kalabagh as expected, it decided to go for a
dam upstream at Diamar-Bhasha, which hadn’t even had a feasibility report. (The other planned
dams were not ready for construction either.) The reason for Diamar-Bhasha’s approval was to
avoid political controversy in Sindh Province that could adversely affect the re-election prospects
of the Pakistan Muslim League, the party in power, in the general elections scheduled for late
2007. President Pervez Musharraf has often expressed his determination to build Kalabagh. And
if he stays in power, he might get the project started. Meanwhile, Pakistan continues to starve for
electric power. Daily blackouts are a fact of life across the country, but it is racing to increase
power production. In 2006, electric generation in Pakistan jumped by 18.4 percent over the
previous year. The only country with a bigger jump in electric generation in 2006 was Denmark.
Conclusion:
Development and growth demand readily available energy resources. The Government of
Pakistan aim at energy resources maintaining a high growth rate of energy sources in the
coming years. However, the implementation of these objectives require careful policy
formulation. The energy sector in Pakistan has experienced a considerable change since
1994. The experience with Independent Power Producers (IPPs) suggests that new polices
should be formulated by keeping long term scenarios in mind. Although the 1994 power
policy was instrumental in bridging much needed power shortages in the country, it failed to
deliver inexpensive power to the masses. Electricity tariffs have seen a constant upward
trend since 1994. The bulk power tariff again was a major incentive to attract foreign
investment in this sector. However, it proved to costly in the medium term for the
consumers. The switch to competitive bidding in the last power generation policy (2002) is,
therefore, a step in the right direction. As the government further privatises the energy
sector in Pakistan under the influence of various international lending agencies, there is a
strong need to strengthen the regulatory mechanism in the country. At present both
National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) and Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority
(OGRA) operate in an extremely centralised manner. Establishing offices for NEPRA and
OGRA in cities where the DISCOS exist will vastly improve their functioning, since the public
will have more accessibility to them.

Besides restructuring various government departments. Pakistan needs to bring in the

following in its future energy strategies:

 The government must improve the functioning of the state utilities, namely: Water
and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) and Karachi Electricity Supply
Corporation (KESC). The energy losses in the two utilities were one per cent of the
GDP in the year 2003, whereas the financial support offered to them during the same
year stood at 1.8 per cent.
 Private and public partnership in exploration of oil, gas and coal reserves in the
country to meet energy demands
 Renewed stress and active support to promote renewable energy resources in
Pakistan. Renewable energy resources can prove vital in the electrification of remote
areas in the provinces of Balochistan and Sindh, in particular, and in other areas, in
general.
 The government must also actively promote energy efficiency and conservation. A
right step in this direction will be the enactment and implementation of laws that
promote energy efficiency and conservation.

As stated in the previous sections both large scale hydel power projects and nuclear energy
are inappropriate to meet future energy needs. The issues attached to large scale hydel
power projects are not environmental and social in nature only. Projects like Kalabagh Dam
and other such massive projects have political connotations as well. Any urgency on the
part of GoP in this regard can prove costly to the federation of Pakistan. GoP should actively
pursue coal, natural gas and renewable energy options to meet future energy demands.
Similarly, at the same time GoP should also invest in public sector energy projects. The
projects should be both in power and other energy sectors. This is important to ensure
supply of energy be it natural gas or electricity at cheaper and affordable prices to its
consumers.

References:
 www.wikipedia.com
 www.southasianmedia.net
 www.energytribune.com/articles
 www.opfblog.com