Professional Documents
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Replacement Decisions
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Table of Contents
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
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Failure Replacement
Cost/Week
Component
Replacement
Capital Equipment
Replacement
Inspection
Procedures
1.
1. Best Preventive
Replacement Time
a) Replace only on
failure
b) Constant Interval
c) Age-Based
d) Deterministic
Performance
Deterioration
1. Economic Life
3. Repair vs Replace
3.
2. Glassers Graphs
4.
3. Spare Parts
Provisioning
4. Repairable Systems
5. Softwares
RELCODE and SMS
a) Constant Annual
Utilization
a) Profit Maximisation
b) Availability
Maximisation
b) Varying Annual
Utilization
c) Technological
2.
2. Tracking Individual
Units
4.
5.
Probability & Statistics
(Weibull Analysis)
Inspection
Frequency for a
System
A, B, C, D Class
Inspection
Intervals
Failure Finding
Intervals (FFI)
Condition Based
Maintenance (Oil
Analysis)
Blended Health
Monitoring & Age
Replacement
Software EXAKT
Dynamic
Programming
$/Week
Resource
Requirements
Preventive Replacement
Cost/Week
1. Workshop
Machines /Crew
Sizes.
2. Right Sizing
Equipment
tp
Optimal Value of tp
a) Own Equipment
b) Contracting Out
Peaks in
Demand
3. Lease / Buy
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C p + C f H (t p )
where H(tp) is the expected number of failures in interval (0,
tp). The length of interval = tp. Therefore:
C (t p ) =
C p + C f H (t p )
tp
Breakdown
1.4.1 Statement of Problem
This problem is similar to that of Section 1.3 except that
instead of making preventive replacements at fixed intervals,
thus with the possibility of performing a preventive
replacement shortly after a failure replacement, the time at
which the preventive replacement occurs depends on the age
of the item. When failures occur failure replacements are
made. When this occurs, the time-clock is re-set to zero, and
the preventive replacement occurs only when the item has
been in use for the specified period of time.
Again, the problem is to balance the cost of the preventive
replacements against their benefits and we do this by
determining the optimal preventive replacement age for the
item to minimize the total expected cost of replacements per
unit time.
1.4.2 Construction of Model
Assume that:
(1) Cp is the total cost of a preventive replacement.
(2) Cf is the total cost of a failure replacement.
(3) f(t) is the probability density function of the failure
times of the item.
(4) The replacement policy is to perform a preventive
replacement when the item has reached a specified
age tp, plus failure replacements when necessary.
(5) The objective is to determine the optimal replacement
age of the item to minimize the total expected
replacement cost per unit time.
In this problem, there are two possible cycles of operation:
one cycle being determined by the item reaching its planned
replacement age tp, the other being determined by the
equipment ceasing to operate due to a failure occurring before
the planned replacement time. The total expected replacement
cost per unit time C(tp) is:
C (t p ) =
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C p R (t p ) + C f [1 R (t p )]
t p R (t p ) + M (t p ) [1 R (t p )]
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12
25
13
19
To-day
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2. REPAIRABLE SYSTEMS
2.1 Repairable Systems
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25
12
25
13
13
19
19
Non-committal
System
19
Happy
System
25
13
12
Sad
System
Renewal time
r(t)
EN (T , t p ) =
Minimal repair
time
General repair
time
Minimal repair
time
T
t p R (t p ) + M (t p ) [1 R (t p )]
time
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Failures
failure
time
stock
repaired
units
Repair
shop
3.2.3 An Application
Non-Repairable Components
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Value
62
3,000 days (8 years)
1825 days (5 years).
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80 days
$15,000
$75,000
$10,000
$4.11 per day (10% of value
of part per annum)
$1,000 per day
Optimal Stock
level
Associated
Availability
Not calculated
Not calculated
97.40 %
99.99 %
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kilometers.
6000
The profit per unit time from operating the equipment will be
a function of the number of inspections. Therefore denoting
profit per unit time by P(n),
Actual
Predicted
3000
2000
4500
P (n) = V
V ( n )
Vn R (n) In
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
Total
8500
repair
inspection
X
X
X
2.5
Downtime
2
(% of total
bus-hours/
1.5
year)
X
X
X
X
X
total
X
X
0.5
X
X
X
8
X
1
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
= 16
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7500
6500
Km (1000)
5500
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Pressure Valve
Availability (%)
99.9
99.5
99.0
98.6
98.1
95.0
90.0
A(t i ) =
t i R (t i ) + tf (t )dt
t i + Ti + Tr [1 R (t i )]
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exp i z i (t )
i =1
e 1z1 (t )+ 2 z2 (t )+L+ m zm (t )
takes into account the variables, that may be thought of as the
key risk factors used to monitor the health of equipment, and
their associated weights.
The procedure to estimate the values of , and the weights,
along with determining the condition monitoring variables to
be included in the model is discussed in a number of books
and papers, including Kalbfleisch and Prentice (15). Standard
statistical software such as SAS and S-Plus have routines to fit
a PHM both parametric, such as the Weibull PHM, and
non-parametric.
4.4.3 Blending Hazard and Economics: Optimizing the CBM
Decision
Makis and Jardine (16) presented an approach to identify the
optimal interpretation of condition monitoring signals where it
is shown that the expected average cost per unit time, (d), is
a function of the threshold risk level, d, and is given by:
(d ) =
C (1 Q(d )) + (C + K )Q(d )
W (d )
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C ( n)
C ( n) = 1 n =
1 r
Annual Cost
Total cost
C r
i =1
+ r n ( A Sn )
1 rn
Operations and
maintenance cost
Fixed cost
Ownership
cost
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Usage (km)
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Bus Number
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Year
16,000
100,000
28,000
60,000
46,000
50,000
70,000
20,000
Table 4.9. Side-Loader Cost Data
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6. REFERENCES
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