CPM/PERT

S. Ajit
 Project

 “A project is a series of activities directed to

the accomplishment of a desired objective.”
 History
Developed in the 1950s

CPM was developed by Du Pont and the emphasis was on the trade-off
between the cost of the project and its overall completion time (e.g.
for certain activities it may be possible to decrease their completion
times by spending more money - how does this affect the overall
completion time of the project?)

PERT was developed by the US Navy for the planning and control of
the Polaris missile program and the emphasis was on completing the
program in the shortest possible time. In addition PERT had the
ability to cope with uncertain activity completion times (e.g. for a
particular activity the most likely completion time is 4 weeks but it
could be anywhere between 3 weeks and 8 weeks).
 CPM - Critical Path Method

 Definition: In CPM activities are shown as a network of

precedence relationships using activity-on-node network
construction
– Single estimate of activity time
– Deterministic activity times

USED IN : Production management - for the jobs of

repetitive in nature where the activity time estimates can
be predicted with considerable certainty due to the
existence of past experience.
 PERT -
Project Evaluation & Review Techniques

 Definition: In PERT activities are shown as a network of

precedence relationships using activity-on-arrow network
construction
– Multiple time estimates
– Probabilistic activity times

USED IN : Project management - for non-repetitive jobs

(research and development work), where the time and cost
estimates tend to be quite uncertain. This technique uses
probabilistic time estimates.
 The Project Network

 Use of nodes and arrows

Arrows  An arrow leads from tail to head directionally

– Indicate ACTIVITY, a time consuming effort that is
required to perform a part of the work.

Nodes  A node is represented by a circle

- Indicate EVENT, a point in time where one or more
activities start and/or finish.
 The Project Network

– An activity is a time-consuming effort that is

required to complete part of a project. Shown as
an arrow on the diagram
– An event is denoted by a circle and defines the end
of one activity and beginning of the next. An
event may be a decision point.

Activity Event
 Activity Slack

Each event has two important times associated with it :

- Earliest time , Te , which is a calendar time when an event can

occur when all the predecessor events completed at the earliest
possible times
- Latest time , TL , which is the latest time the event can occur
with out delaying the subsequent events and completion of project.

 Difference between the latest time and the earliest time of an event
is the slack time for that event

Positive slack : Slack is the amount of time an event can be

delayed without delaying the project completion
 Critical Path

 Is that the sequence of activities and events where there is no

“slack” i.e.. Zero slack

 Longest path through a network

 minimum project completion time

 Questions Answered by CPM & PERT

 Completion date?

 On Schedule?

 Within Budget?

 Critical Activities?

 How can the project be finished early at the least cost?

 Example
1. Construct the CPM Network using the details below and
determine the critical path

Activity Immediate Duration

Predecessor
A - 1
B A 4
C A 2
D A 2
E D 3
F D 3
G E 2
H F,G 1
I C,H 3
J B 2
 CPM NETWORK

A
1 2
 CPM NETWORK

4
D
A
1 2 C 7

3
 CPM NETWORK

5
E

4 F
D 6
A
1 2 C 7

3
 CPM NETWORK

5
E
G
4 F
D 6
A
1 2 C 7

3
 CPM NETWORK

5
E
G
4 F
D 6 H
A
1 2 C 7

3
 CPM NETWORK

5
E
G
4 F
D 6 H
A I
1 2 7 8
C

3
 CPM NETWORK

5
E
G
4 F
D 6 H
A I
1 2 7 8
C

J
3
 CPM NETWORK with duration of each activity

5
E(3)
G(2)
4 F(3)
D(2) 6 H(1)
A(1) I(3)
1 2 7 8
C(2)

B(4)

J(2)
3
 To find the Critical Path LFT
EST
5
E(3)
G(2)
4
F(3)
0
D(2) 6
H(1)
0
A(1) I(3) 8
1 2 7
C(2)

B(4)
J(2)

3
 To find the Critical Path LFT
EST
5
E(3)
G(2)
4
F(3)
0 0
D(2) 6
H(1)
0 1
A(1) I(3) 8
1 2 7
C(2)

B(4)
J(2)

3
 To find the Critical Path LFT
EST
5
0 E(3)
3 G(2)
4
F(3)
0 0
D(2) 6
H(1)
0 1
A(1) I(3) 8
1 2 7
C(2)

B(4)
J(2)

3
 To find the Critical Path LFT
EST
0
5 6
0 E(3)
3 G(2)
4
F(3)
0 0
D(2) 6
H(1)
0 1
A(1) I(3) 8
1 2 7
C(2)

B(4)
J(2)

3
 To find the Critical Path LFT
EST
0
5 6
0 E(3)
3 G(2)
4
F(3)
0 0
D(2) 6
0 H(1)
0 1 8
A(1) I(3) 8
1 2 7
C(2)

B(4)
J(2)

3
 To find the Critical Path LFT
EST
0
5 6
0 E(3)
3 G(2)
4
F(3)
0 0
D(2) 6 0
0 H(1)
0 1 8 9
A(1) I(3) 8
1 2 7
C(2)

B(4)
J(2)

3
 To find the Critical Path LFT
EST
0
5 6
0 E(3)
3 G(2)
4
F(3)
0 0
D(2) 6 0
0 H(1)
0 1 8 9
A(1) I(3) 8
1 2 7
C(2)

B(4)
0 J(2)
5
3
 To find the Critical Path LFT
EST
0
5 6
0 E(3)
3 G(2)
4
F(3)
0 0
D(2) 6 0
0
0 H(1) 12
0 1 8 9
A(1) I(3) 8
1 2 7
C(2)

B(4)
0 J(2)
5
3
 To find the Critical Path LFT
EST
0
5 6
0 E(3)
3 G(2)
4
F(3)
0 0
D(2) 6 0
12
0 H(1) 12
0 1 8 9
A(1) I(3) 8
1 2 7
C(2)

B(4)
0 J(2)
5
3
 To find the Critical Path LFT
EST
0
5 6
0 E(3)
3 G(2)
4
F(3)
0 0
D(2) 6 9
12
0 H(1) 12
0 1 8 9
A(1) I(3) 8
1 2 7
C(2)

B(4)
0 J(2)
5
3
 To find the Critical Path LFT
EST
0
5 6
0 E(3)
3 G(2)
4
F(3)
0 0
D(2) 6 9
12
8 H(1) 12
0 1 8 9
A(1) I(3) 8
1 2 7
C(2)

B(4)
0 J(2)
5
3
 To find the Critical Path LFT
EST
6
5 6
0 E(3)
3 G(2)
4
F(3)
0 0
D(2) 6 9
12
8 H(1) 12
0 1 8 9
A(1) I(3) 8
1 2 7
C(2)

B(4)
0 J(2)
5
3
 To find the Critical Path LFT
EST
6
5 6
3 E(3)
3 G(2)
4
F(3)
0 0
D(2) 6 9
12
8 H(1) 12
0 1 8 9
A(1) I(3) 8
1 2 7
C(2)

B(4)
0 J(2)
5
3
 To find the Critical Path LFT
EST
6
5 6
3 E(3)
3 G(2)
4
F(3)
0 1
D(2) 6 9
12
8 H(1) 12
0 1 8 9
A(1) I(3) 8
1 2 7
C(2)

B(4)
0 J(2)
5
3
 To find the Critical Path LFT
EST
6
5 6
3 E(3)
3 G(2)
4
F(3)
0 1
D(2) 6 9
12
8 H(1) 12
0 1 8 9
A(1) I(3) 8
1 2 7
C(2)

B(4)
10 J(2)
5
3
 Critical Path
6
5 6
3 E(3)
3 G(2)
4
F(3)
0 1
D(2) 6 9
12
8 H(1) 12
0 1 8 9
A(1) I(3) 8
1 2 7
C(2)

B(4)
10 J(2)
5
Critical Path 3 Critical Path
1-2-4–5–6–7-8 A–B–E–G–H-I
 CPM - Example
Critical Path
1-2-4–5–6–7–8

Critical Path
A–B–E–G–H-I

Project Completion Time = 12 months

 PERT
 Probabilistic
 Three estimates
– to (a) – optimistic time
– tp (b) – pessimistic time
 

– tl (m) – most likely time

 Mean µ = (to + 4* tl + tp)/6

 Variance σ2 = [(tp – to)/6]2

PERT – Example: Construct Project network, find the expected
duration and variance for each activity & find the critical path and
expected project completion time

Activity Predecessor a m b
A - 6 7 8
B - 1 2 9
C - 1 4 7
D A 1 2 3
E A,B 1 2 9
F C 1 5 9
G C 2 2 8
H E,F 4 4 4
I E,F 4 4 10
J D,H 2 5 14
K G,I 2 2 8
 PERT – Example:
Mean µ = (to + 4* tl + tp)/6 Variance σ2 = [(tp – to)/6]2

Activity Predece a m b µ
ssor te
A - 6 7 8 7
B - 1 2 9
C - 1 4 7
D A 1 2 3
E A,B 1 2 9
F C 1 5 9
G C 2 2 8
H E,F 4 4 4
I E,F 4 4 10
J D,H 2 5 14
K G,I 2 2 8
 PERT – Example:
Mean µ = (to + 4* tl + tp)/6 Variance σ2 = [(tp – to)/6]2

Activity Predece a m b µ
ssor te
A - 6 7 8 7
B - 1 2 9 3
C - 1 4 7
D A 1 2 3
E A,B 1 2 9
F C 1 5 9
G C 2 2 8
H E,F 4 4 4
I E,F 4 4 10
J D,H 2 5 14
K G,I 2 2 8
 PERT – Example:
Mean µ = (to + 4* tl + tp)/6 Variance σ2 = [(tp – to)/6]2

Activity Predecessor a m b µ σ2
te
A - 6 7 8 7
B - 1 2 9 3
C - 1 4 7 4
D A 1 2 3 2
E A,B 1 2 9 3
F C 1 5 9 5
G C 2 2 8 3
H E,F 4 4 4 4
I E,F 4 4 10 5
J D,H 2 5 14 6
K G,I 2 2 8 3
 PERT – Example:
Mean µ = (to + 4* tl + tp)/6 Variance σ2 = [(tp – to)/6]2

Activity Predecessor a m b µ σ2
te
A - 6 7 8 7 0.11
B - 1 2 9 3
C - 1 4 7 4
D A 1 2 3 2
E A,B 1 2 9 3
F C 1 5 9 5
G C 2 2 8 3
H E,F 4 4 4 4
I E,F 4 4 10 5
J D,H 2 5 14 6
K G,I 2 2 8 3
 PERT – Example:
Mean µ = (to + 4* tl + tp)/6 Variance σ2 = [(tp – to)/6]2

Activity Predecessor a m b µ σ2
te
A - 6 7 8 7 0.11
B - 1 2 9 3 1.78
C - 1 4 7 4
D A 1 2 3 2
E A,B 1 2 9 3
F C 1 5 9 5
G C 2 2 8 3
H E,F 4 4 4 4
I E,F 4 4 10 5
J D,H 2 5 14 6
K G,I 2 2 8 3
 PERT – Example:
Mean µ = (to + 4* tl + tp)/6 Variance σ2 = [(tp – to)/6]2

Activity Predecessor a m b µ σ2
te
A - 6 7 8 7 0.11
B - 1 2 9 3 1.78
C - 1 4 7 4 1.00
D A 1 2 3 2 0.11
E A,B 1 2 9 3 1.78
F C 1 5 9 5 1.78
G C 2 2 8 3 1.00
H E,F 4 4 4 4 0
I E,F 4 4 10 5 1.00
J D,H 2 5 14 6 4.00
K G,I 2 2 8 3 1.00
 6
To find the Critical Path LFT
6
EST

D(2)
E(3)
2
F(5)
A(7)
B(3) G(3)
1 3 H(4)
C(4) I(5)
J(6)
4
K(3)
 6
To find the Critical Path LFT
6
EST

D(2) 6 E(3)
2
F(5)
A(7)
B(3) G(3)
1 3 H(4)
C(4) I(5)
J(6)
4
K(3)
 6
To find the Critical Path LFT
6
EST

D(2) 6
2
F(5)
A(7)
B(3) E(3) G(3)
1 3 5 H(4)
C(4) I(5)
J(6)
4
K(3)
 6
To find the Critical Path LFT
6
EST

D(2) 6
2
A(7)
B(3) E(3) G(3)
1 3 5 H(4)
F(5) I(5)
C(4)
J(6)
4
K(3)
 6
To find the Critical Path LFT
6
EST

D(2) 6
2
A(7)
B(3) E(3)
1 3 5 H(4)
F(5) I(5)
C(4)
G(3) J(6)
4 7
K(3)
 6
To find the Critical Path LFT
6
EST

D(2) 6
2
A(7) H(4)
B(3) E(3)
1 3 5
F(5) I(5)
C(4)
G(3) J(6)
4 7
K(3)
 6
To find the Critical Path LFT
6
EST

D(2) 6
2
A(7) H(4)
B(3) E(3)
1 3 5
F(5)
C(4) I(5)
G(3) J(6)
4 7
K(3)
 6
To find the Critical Path LFT
6
EST

D(2) 6
2
A(7) H(4) J(6)
B(3) E(3)
1 3 5 8

F(5)
C(4) I(5)
G(3)
4 7
K(3)
 6
To find the Critical Path LFT
6
EST

D(2) 6
2
H(4) J(6)
A(7)
B(3) E(3)
1 3 5 8

F(5) I(5) K(3)

C(4)
G(3)
4 7
 To find the Critical Path LFT
EST
14
7 14
7 D(2) 6
2
A(7) H(4) J(6) 20
0 7
20
0 7 E(3) 10
B(3) 10 8
1 3 5
F(5) I(5) K(3)
C(4) 4 15
5 G(3) 17
4 7
 14
7 14
7 D(2) 6
2
J(6)
A(7) 7
H(4) 20
0 20
0 7 E(3) 10
B(3) 10 8
1 3 5
F(5) I(5) K(3)
C(4) 4 15
5 G(3) 17
4 7

Critical path 1 – 2 – 3 – 5 – 6 – 8

Critical path A – Dummy – E – H – J

 PERT - Example
 What is the probability of completing the project within 25
weeks?
Activities Variance
A 0.11
Dummy 0
E 1.78
H 0
J 4

 Σσ2 = 5.89 σ = √(Σσ2) = 2.43

 Ts (Scheduled time) = 25 weeks
 Z = (Ts – Te) / σ = (25 – 20) / 2.43 = 2.06
 From z table (normal table) z(2.06) = 97.68 %
 PERT - Example
 What is the probability of completing the project within 15
weeks?

Activities Variance
A 0.11
Dummy 0
E 1.78
H 0
J 4

 Σσ2 = 5.89 σ = √(Σσ2) = 2.43

 Ts (Scheduled time) = 15 weeks
 Z = (Ts – Te) / σ = (15 – 20) / 2.43 = -2.06
 From z table (normal table) z(-2.06) = 100 - 97.68 %
• = 2.02 %
 Limitations of CPM/PERT

 Clearly defined, independent and stable activities

 Specified precedence relationships
 Over emphasis on critical paths